As Sam Darnold has become the latest quarterback to bounce back after an underwhelming stretch, the Vikings have both enjoyed the benefits while finding themselves in a bit of a predicament from a long-term sense. As Darnold may be less likely to hit free agency due to the season he has put together, J.J. McCarthy continues his rehab from a summer knee injury.
Centering their offseason around finding a long-term quarterback to succeed Kirk Cousins, the Vikings both acquired a second first-round pick (from the Texans) and traded up one spot — without using that second first-rounder — for McCarthy at No. 10 overall. McCarthy has undergone two knee surgeries to address the meniscus tear he suffered during the preseason. While the Michigan alum recovers, the former No. 3 overall pick taking Minnesota’s snaps has been a revelation in Kevin O’Connell‘s offense.
Early-December reports suggested Darnold was unlikely to remain with the Vikings beyond this season, but a subsequent offering indicated the team does hope to keep its current starter. The latter avenue would seemingly close off McCarthy’s future in the Twin Cities — or at least significantly alter it — months after it began. Days after that report, ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter noted during an ESPN Radio appearance teams will “definitely” inquire about McCarthy’s status.
Pegging McCarthy as a talent who could have been the top-rated QB prospect in the 2025 draft class, Schefter adds the Vikings could not only recoup a first-round pick in a trade but also collect additional assets. As our Ely Allen reminded Tuesday, evaluators are not viewing the ’25 group of QBs in the same way they assessed 2024’s. The supply-and-demand problem that grips the NFL annually at this position figures to be a bigger storyline in 2025 than it was in 2024.
This is still at the hypothetical stage, as it would effectively mean bailing on a high-end prospect one year into his career. But Darnold has changed the equation this season. His performance in O’Connell’s offense has driven the Vikes to 14-2 — their best record since a record-setting 1998 season — and it would be easier for the franchise to justify a second contract that perhaps it would another team who bets big on the ex-Jet, Panther and 49er in free agency. Throwing 35 touchdown passes, Darnold sits fifth in that category and fifth in passer rating. He checks in fourth in yards per attempt (8.2), though QBR slots him 13th. A robust free agent market would await, should the Vikings pass on franchise-tagging the 27-year-old arm.
Having already seen Darnold in O’Connell’s system, the Vikings could hope for more of the same due to the weaponry — perhaps beyond Aaron Jones, who is on a one-year deal — expected to remain in place in 2025. This would differ from another team sinking upper-middle-class — at the very least, given where Darnold’s trajectory now points — free agency money into Darnold, who would then be thrust into learning a new system and meshing with perhaps a less talented set of weapons.
A scenario in which Minnesota keeps Darnold — perhaps on the tag — but slots McCarthy behind him as a developmental option could also loom. That was the plan for 2024, as McCarthy was not expected to take over as the Vikings’ starter immediately. It was widely expected the former national championship-winning QB would take the reins at some point in 2024, but the way Darnold has played, it now would have seemed likely if McCarthy would have sat the full season had he stayed healthy.
The Vikings still figure to have a sense of McCarthy’s worth as a trade chip soon, though a commitment to Darnold would change the team’s roster blueprint. A tag would cost upwards of $40MM. McCarthy is on a rookie deal through at least the 2026 season; a Darnold tag or extension would change the math for a team that has Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson on top-market deals.
As the Vikings prepare for one of the biggest regular-season games in NFL history, their long-term QB plan will be of great interest around the NFL.
Keep and sign Darnold 4Y 160M, then see if u can get a day 2 pick preferably day 1
I think they could get a day one pick if the right team comes calling. Mid to late round team in need of a QB (Steelers if they can’t sign Wilson) or a first round swap up with a team in the top ten that needs a QB but still needs another day one pick ((Giants for example if both QBs are gone).
He would arguably be QB1 in this class so I agree someone would give up a 1st.
Titans.
They aren’t moving 1.02 for this guy.. Vikings would have to add considerably to JJ
No way the Vikings do that then. I’m not sure why you think Minnesota would have to add considerably; they have all the leverage and could just keep him. The Titans are the ones without a franchise QB in a class with no sure franchise QB.
Did you not just see what happened when the Giants did this with Danny Dimes? Darnold seems like a product of the system, not worth 40 million a year
McCarthy isn’t going anywhere.
He’s plenty cheap enough to be a backup for a couple of years and he hasn’t even turned 22 yet. They don’t need to trade him unless a team really backs up the truck for him.
I agree but players are looking for that juicy second contract by year 4. Assuming Darnold maintains this high level of play, how many more years before McCarthy wants out?
In three years, he’ll still only be as old as Bo Nix is now. Maybe he’ll be itchy to get out. If they need to trade him some time between now and then, he’ll still be young and he’ll have been in a great developmental environment further removed from injury, so they can still trade him next offseason or the two after that. In the meantime, he’s with a great coach and an organization that consistently gets the highest grades on the players’ association report cards. It might be the best place to sit.
Think of all the picks/cheap contracts they can get and fill positions in need only to strengthen their push. Plus, nothing preventing them from drafting another QB later – look at SF. Theres no guarantee McCarthy is going to succeed anyway.
Nothing is guaranteed, but they’ve had a good look at the guy. If other teams aren’t willing to pay that much for a guy coming off an injury and no NFL play, they might not see the value as sufficient.
“ Schefter adds the Vikings could not only recoup a first-round pick in a trade but also collect additional assets.”
Any GM that gives up a first for McCarthy and additional assets should be on the hot seat immediately.
McCarthy is coming off knee surgery that kept him off the field his entire rookie season, only comes with 4 years of control now, and no film whether this dude can be a franchise QB.
Smart teams who need a QB should offer their 2nd which matches what a 2nd round QB would get contract wise (4 years).
Walking away with a high 2nd round pick (33-43) would at least help the Vikings salvage the situation.
But if I’m an organization in need of a QB I’m not trading a top 5, 10, 15, or 20 1st round pick and additional assets for McCarthy. At best it’d be a team with multiple firsts this year and they trade one that sits at 25 or later in the first and that’s it.
But schefter apparently celebrated a little too hard New Year’s Eve if he think McCarthy will net both a 1st round and additional assets.
My bet would be the raiders trade back into the 1st round with whoever is at 25,26,27,28 and then immediately ship that pick to Minnesota for McCarthy. Raiders seem desperate enough to do something like that.
If Shedeur and Cam Ward go in the top 5, there’s no other options left for teams. Vikings have no need to trade McCarthy, they don’t need to salvage anything. McCarthy is 15 months younger than Cam Ward.
You’re also massively overvaluing the first year of a rookie QB contract, because that year is usually spent on the bench or struggling mightily. There’s like three rookie quarterbacks in 70 years that were a net positive in year one so losing that year of control should barely matter to a team. If anything spending that year with KOC would help the evaluation.
But this is all moot because they’re going to turn the team over to McCarthy unless they go to the Super Bowl.
Ward and Shedeur
1. Come with 5 years of control instead of 4
2. Aren’t coming off a missed season due to injury
3. Don’t require additional assets unless you trade up in the draft for them which doesn’t sound like people are planning to doing.
Massively over valuing rookie QB contract? Did you really just say that? Having a franchise QB on a rookie contract is a god send to a franchise cause it lets you spend money elsewhere while they’re cheap for 5 years. Have you seen the price tag for a franchise QB? A franchise QB on a 4 year 40 mill contract with a 5th year option is such a bargain compared to putting a franchise tag on your QB or paying them 20,25,30 mill or more a year. You’re severely undervaluing rookie QB contracts. You can literally look at Chargers, Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants etc that had to pay their “franchise” QBs which affected spending money elsewhere due to their salaries.
If the Vikings decide to move McCarthy and keep Darnold best they’ll get is a late 1st round draft pick. Most smart teams will offer say a 2nd, 2nd and 4th, 2nd and conditional pick that can turn into another 2nd. We’ve seen what the price is for a 23rd pick, two seconds. But someone like the raiders could trade back into late 1st
He said you’re undervaluing the first year of a rookie contract, not the whole contract.
I marked this one to come back to in April.
McCarthy coming off knee surgery with only 4 years of control is definitely still more valuable than Ewers, Dart, or Milroe and arguably still more valuable than Sanders or Ward, two guys who could go #1. Trying to acquire a QB out of what is shaping up to be a great QB class during a very poor one could be a savvy move. Depends how badly they liked McCarthy last season.
Franchise Darnold make him prove it again, McCarthy sits and learns another year where he can actually practice.
Exactly. Reward Darnold for this season, but don’t disregard his track record. You’ll know what you have in McCarthy in a year and can make a move then.
This is the way
Vikings are in the catbird’s seat.
Not only do they have Darnold & JJ McCarthy on the roster, but they have 6th most cap space available in 2025.
Of their numerous options, 2 most likely are:
1- Tag & trade Darnold. Then build an even deeper roster around McCarthy on a rookie wage scale. Org has been planning on this for quite some time.
2- Sign Darnold long-term on a 3-5 year deal.
Trade McCarthy for a high end #1 or a bevy of draft picks.
Don’t forget Daniel Jones is the latest former #1 pick who opted for QB rehab in MN. He offers MN leverage in any contract negotiation with Darnold. Jones is possibly satisfied with a backup role or perhaps a shot to compete with McCarthy to start in MN next year.
Daniel Jones is on the Minnesota practice squad, thus Vikings would have to sign him to the active roster or risk having him poached by another club.
Jones hand-picked the Vikings and he’s sitting on stacks upon stacks of cash. I would think the risk is minimal.
Correct
Daniel Jones could have selected a team that may have allowed him to play this year.
Choosing to sign on Minny’s practice squad feels like a strategic, longer-term decision since his pay is set.
McCarthy isn’t fetching a high end first round pick by himself
Vikings will either get someone like Raiders trading their 2nd round pick and a 4th round pick jump back into the first round at the end (25-32) and then sending that pick to the Vikings for McCarthy
Or Vikings attach their own 2024 first round pick to McCarthy and move up the draft board possibly into the top 10.
But McCarthy coming off knee surgery where he missed his entire rookie season, only has 4 years of team control left, and is as big of risk as rest of the QBs in this draft isn’t getting a premium first by himself.
I think teams would be more than willing to give up a 1st for JJ
He went 10th overall last year, a contender wouldn’t bat an eye at giving up a number 20-32 for him
Minnesota is not trading McCarthy for a 2nd rounder + change or a late 1st. That makes zero sense when they just drafted him 12 or whatever. He’s more valuable as a competent backup, high-end insurance for Darnold, and/or a potential franchise QB than as bait for a draft pick in a class that lacks elite talent.
McCarthy was drafted #10 overall in 2024 in a historic, deep QB draft. He’d likely be top 3 in 2025 draft, especially since he turns 22 in a few weeks.
Penix Jr had 2 worse knee injuries on the same knee (ACL vs Meniscus) AND he is 3 years older than McCarthy. He was still a top 10 draft pick.
JJ#9 is undoubtedly a high-end young QB worth a bevy of picks.
However, I expect the Vikes to build around him!
“Don’t forget Daniel Jones is the latest former #1 pick who opted for QB rehab in MN. He offers MN leverage in any contract negotiation with Darnold. Jones is possibly satisfied with a backup role or perhaps a shot to compete with McCarthy to start in MN next year.”
Jones is only there right now because Minnesota is thin at backup QB. There is no way the Vikings would let Darnold go in order to let Jones compete with McCarthy to start next year. A competition he would lose by a mile, btw. A practice squad QB is not going to have any bearing whatsoever on how the Viking handle Darnold and JJ.
Vikings are not thin at backup QB. Nick Mullen’s is a great backup who has the stones to roll in cold & throw a clutch pass on 3rd down. He’s done that this season.
Look, KOC is a QB Whisperer. Maybe people who don’t actually watch the games will figure this out soon.
KOC gets the best out of whatever QB has to offer. The best version of Kirk Cousins, Josh Dobbs & Sam Darnold has come under the leadership of KOC.
If Sam Darnold wants $50M+ for 5 years, I think JJ McCarthy starts for MN (with Daniel Jones as backup) in 2025.
Jones is in Minnesota as a possible backup for next season
It’s possible that he could LeapFrog Mullens, but that’s unlikely this season. Mullins has done quite well for the few plays he was asked to run the offense.
If the Vikings indeed move on from Darnold, having Daniel Jones in the mix as a backup is helpful for 2025.
I like how Schefter says they could get more than just a first round pick but trade rumors commenters are somehow sure they couldn’t.
Vikings would never trade McCarthy for less than a first rounder plus more, at least this coming offseason. They can easily afford to keep both. Might be wise to make sure Darnold doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin before giving McCarthy away though.
Schefter also said Dalvin Cook “ is the victim of domestic abuse and extortion — there’s pending litigation, according to his agent Zac Hiller.” He also reported that “a member of the military had stolen a garage door opener ‘and Maced Cook directly in his eyes immediately upon illegally entering.’” failing to mention the woman involved was suing cook for domestic violence
Schefter also once tweeted quarterback Watson’s belief that the truth was out after he wasn’t indicted by a grand jury
Or the time where communications between Gruden and Washington Commanders executive Bruce Allen showing the Las Vegas Raiders coach using racist, homophobic, and misogynistic language were other emails between Allen and Schefter showing Schefter sent Allen an entire story before publishing for his feedback
Schefter isn’t a talent evaluator. He’s a sports reporter whose job is create content for people to consume. Schefter pushes narratives and pushes “anonymous sources” for clicks.
McCarthy coming off knee surgery where he missed his entire rookie season cause of the injury, is only controlled for 4 more years, and comes with as many question marks as the rest of the prospects this year isn’t worth a first round pick and more from QB needy teams.
Someone might trade back into the first round towards the end giving up their second and send that pick to the Vikings for McCarthy but nobody is sending the Vikings a top 20 pick straight up for McCarthy let alone a top 10 or top 15 pick.
They will keep both, I don’t understand why the media wants to pressure them so much to pick one. Darnold is having one good year like how Baker had. You give him a deal similar to Baker but slightly higher. If he proves he can still do it like Baker then he gets a nicer contract soon.
I think the idea is that IF they think darnold is born again awesome, they would be smart to get the most out of a trade for JJ now.
Yes, trade McCarthy. Darnold went through his maturation process and now prospers. Took years. So he gets hurt and you bring in McCarthy. That’s a blank slate. Too risky to think he catches on right away. Go with a Flacco type that can step in and give you league level adequacy as required. IE won’t crap the bed
Darnold has one good season and he’s mature and prospers now? Wow stick with the Orioles man you totally missed here. Darnold has been garbage his entire career up to this point. Franchise tag is most likely the outcome for him
Agreed
Tag & trade Sam Darnold
If a team sees JJ as better than the current draft options at QB (and needs a QB), it seems to make sense that they would trade their first for him. The knee injury certainly matters, as does 4 instead of 5 years control, but JJ was seen a top prospect last year. Definitely interested in others’ thoughts on this though.
To me JJ is a pretty unknown quantity as a prospect. He doesn’t have a huge arm or the physical tools that blow you away and he’s coming off a wasted year due to a severe knee injury. Yes he won the title at Michigan but that defense did a lot of the heavy lifting. I’d compare him to Brock Purdy. They both are quality qb’s who clearly deserve a starting job in the NFL but both are more the game manager, system qb types that need a solid team around them to flourish as opposed to guys who make the team around them better. I wouldn’t give up a first rounder but also wouldn’t be surprised if it happens.
JJ McCarthy was drafted in the 1st Round, 10th overall, in a historically QB-deep NFL draft…..your comp is a 7th Round QB?
Transitioning from College to the NFL by spending time learning without the pressure of having to play, is a waste? Chief’s did that with Mahomes, was that a waste?
Sitting a rookie QB Used to be considered the wise thing to do when you draft a QB.
Mahomes was actually healthy and able to practice and get reps, not in a training room rehabbing.
That’s a fair point.
There’s a world where Daniel Jones adds value in this scenario for 2025.
Daniel Jones stinks but, as someone already said, O’Connell should be able to make him look better.
A tag seems reasonable, but a big contract doesn’t. A big reason why they shifted from cousins is to pay for the defense and top end offensive players.
Getting stuck in high value QB and being forced to move players that are driving the team to success seems like a step back.
I would rank the options as:
1. Tag Darnold and push this years plan one more year
2. Collect a solid comp pick and let Darnold walk
3. Sign Darnold long term and trade JJ
There is reason & logic to all these options
But there is a lot of indicators that a Darnold Tag/Trade & rolling with McCarthy is also on the table.
You fired a coach and started a new era. In year one you went 14 and 2 thus far doing what youre doing now. That’s rare. Don’t screw it up by overthinking it and getting rid of the quarterback. Lock this up and don’t worry about feeling like you wasted a first rd pick. So what. Sometimes getting a situation resolved before drama starts is the reward. Going from uncertainty to a super bowl contender shouldn’t be messed with. Pay the going rate for Darnold and don’t worry about nickle and diming. Get rid of JJ for whatever you get and stop worrying about value on charts and graphs.
It’s less about draft value and more about the reality of the salary cap.
Building a roster around a rookie wage scale at the quarterback position, while maintaining above average QB play, offers a tremendous advantage.
The Viking 2024 free agent class is the best in the history of this franchise. Numerous starters were brought in & are making a huge impact because the team is not overpaying for a quarterback (outside of leftover Kirk Cousins $)
If I was a GM with a dire QB need in 2025, I’d rather have McCarthy than Sanders or Ward (as long as McCarthy’s medicals are clear). That said, I don’t see the Vikings trading McCarthy as of now. They tag Darnold at $40m and run him back in 2025, with McCarthy waiting in the wings and make their long-term decision prior to 2026. Having two top level QB’s is not a bad thing at all.
Two top level QBs? We haven’t seen McCarthy play a single regular season snap. As was said by another poster, JJ was basically a game manager at Michigan. Does that mean that he won’t be anything more than that in the NFL? No, but calling him a top level QB is a bit premature.
He can be very good but we haven’t seen him do anything yet.
Fans have not seen that yet. Word in training camp was that it looked like McCarthy had a shot to push Darnold for the starting role. Deep-thought analysts thought that after the Jaguars game, if McCarthy were not injured, he may have replaced Sam.
Most fans in Minnesota wanted McCarthy to sit for a year from the get-go. Historically, in the NFL that has been usually the best path for young quarterbacks.
JJ McCarthy was hand-picked by Kevin O’Connell, the GM is a moneyball, stock trader & the plan these two have had for years is to build around a rookie wage scale.
Id lean on the side of tag darnold and keep McCarthy. If darnold has another great year, commit to him long term then move McCarthy, obviously this will diminish his value a bit but by this time next year he’ll be 23, with 3 years of control remaining. Safer move to keep the QB room consistent and have him continuously learning the system in the even of a darnold injury.
Worst case scenario is darnold gets hurt or this year is a fluke for him and the guy you invested a top 10 pick into is playing in a different uniform. Avoid that, entirely.
As good of a season as Darnold is having, don’t forget all his previous seasons either. Also…remember Case Keenum? Had a super year for the Vikings, signed with someone else and went back to the old Keenum. Let Sam walk. You drafted McCarthy for a reason.
This would be a great get for Seattle. They can improve their interior Oline. Not sure if there is an OL in the first round would work. JJ would be our first rnd pick. Probably better than any player we could get in the 1st rnd anyway. Not sure what they would want but a 1st and 3rd cand a 2nd next year. Pretty good return on their investment. Might be an overpay because he is still unproven.
I can see one of two things playing out.. the Vikings sign Darnold to a 4 year $200 million contract with the first two years guaranteed and sit McCarthy for a couple years like the Packers did with Rodgers and Love or they trade McCarthy for nothing less then a first round pick. Don’t forget how good McCarthy is and the impact he provides. It’s unfortunate the injury he had. The thing with the Vikings offense is anyone can have success in it. Last year three QB’s were playing really well after Cousins injury. They just weren’t getting the wins.