This NFL season saw several teams slip out of contention quicker than usual, slimming wild-card races and expanding the pursuit for the No. 1 overall pick. Two teams now lead that race.
While no prospect on the Caleb Williams level is dangling for the Raiders and Giants, an interesting showdown has formed. With three weeks to go, the Giants would currently hold the top 2025 draft choice. But based on projected strength of schedule, the Raiders would win the tiebreaker if the results held. The team with the weaker overall strength of schedule would win that. The Giants still have a game against the 12-2 Eagles, while the Raiders’ upcoming matchup with the 3-11 Jaguars works in their favor.
The Giants have not held the No. 1 pick in the common draft era (1967-present), last making a choice atop a draft in 1965 (running back Tucker Frederickson). Their Eli Manning trade occurred after the Chargers had chosen the quarterback to start the 2004 draft. The Raiders have held the top pick once in the common draft era, famously choosing JaMarcus Russell to start the ’07 draft. Both teams have coaches fighting for their jobs, but each also has seen All-Pros (Dexter Lawrence, Maxx Crosby) removed from equations. Losers of 10 straight, the Raiders follow their Jaguars matchup with games against the Saints and Chargers. The Giants, who have dropped nine consecutive games, go Falcons-Colts-Eagles to close the season.
Five 3-11 teams sit behind the Raiders and Giants presently, with the NFL having nine teams who have already lost double-digit contests. If a Giants or Raiders win occurs, there are candidates to move toward pole position in what could be races for Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. Though, a non-Giants or Raiders team finishing in the top two creates a bit more intrigue, as both those clubs are in dire need of QB help.
With an eye on teams’ projected strength of schedule based on current records, here is how the draft order looks with three games to go:
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
- New York Giants (2-12)
- New England Patriots (3-11)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
- Carolina Panthers (3-11)
- Tennessee Titans (3-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11)
- New York Jets (4-10)
- Chicago Bears (4-10)
- New Orleans Saints (5-9)
- Miami Dolphins (6-8)
- Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
- Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
- Arizona Cardinals (7-7)
- Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
- Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
- Washington Commanders (9-5)
- Denver Broncos (9-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
- Houston Texans (9-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
- Green Bay Packers (10-4)
- Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
- Buffalo Bills (11-3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)
- Detroit Lions (12-2)
- Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
