DEC 8: In keeping with the reports that Darnold is unlikely to return to Minnesota in 2025, ESPN’s Adam Schefter observes that the Vikings have not had any extension discussions with the resurgent passer.
DEC 1: Sam Darnold signed a one-year, $10MM contract with the Vikings this offseason with the understanding that he would operate as a bridge to a rookie quarterback should Minnesota select one early in the draft. After the Vikes drafted J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 overall pick, it was believed that Darnold’s time atop the depth chart would be limited. However, the season-ending knee injury that McCarthy suffered in August, coupled with Darnold’s strong performance, have the veteran passer positioned to be one of the hottest commodities on the 2025 free agent market.
Thanks to Darnold’s surprisingly hot start to the current season, our Adam La Rose examined his rising free agent stock in detail on October 5. Not unlike the infamous Madden curse, the Pro Football Rumors curse bit Darnold just one day later, as the USC alum produced a poor 50.3 quarterback rating in a Week 5 victory over the Jets. Luckily for the Vikings, Darnold bounced back in a big way, posting QB ratings of at least 107.0 in five of the club’s next six contests.
Minnesota sits at 9-2 on the season and is only in second place in its division because of the Lions’ stunning 11-1 record. Although Darnold’s 21:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio is not ideal, three of those picks came in one game, and his 101.7 quarterback rating is the eighth-best mark in the league. As of the time of this writing, his 21 passing TDs are the fifth-highest total, and he is 10th in passing yards (2,717). In general, it looks as if he is finally living up to his billing at the No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 draft.
Now 27, Darnold’s resurgent effort and the Vikings’ success with him at the controls have made him perhaps the most desirable quarterback slated for free agency in March. ESPN’s Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler believe that Darnold is pricing himself out of Minnesota, and the team is comfortable with that reality (subscription required). Although a scenario in which McCarthy’s recovery takes longer than expected could tempt the Vikes to bring Darnold back, McCarthy is obviously expected to take the reins at some point, and Darnold’s price tag is likely to far exceed what the club is willing to pay given its investment and belief in McCarthy.
Dianna Russini of The Athletic also hears that Darnold’s market is going to be a competitive one (subscription required), and the relative weakness of the 2025 draft class of QBs will presumably boost his earning power even more. Of course, all of this presupposes that Darnold does not regress and that he finishes the year healthy, but Fowler anticipates the former Jet, Panther, and 49er will be in line for a middle class contract like those authorized for Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith in recent history.
In other words, a multiyear pact worth between $25MM – $35MM per year featuring $40MM – $50MM in guarantees could be a starting point in negotiations between Darnold’s camp and QB-needy clubs. Assuming that the Vikings don’t want to play in those waters, the team could look to re-sign the newly-acquired Daniel Jones to accompany McCarthy on the depth chart (though Russini is clear that the Jones addition does not impact Darnold’s future in Minnesota).
One good season out of 5, and he’s now worth $25-35M? That’s how losing teams continue to lose.
So Tampa was stupid for extending Baker Mayfield by that logic… Losing teams continue to lose because they don’t know how to use the talent that is in front of them. The Jets and Browns, for instance, instead of figuring out the talent they had, let it go for the popular fixes, which, didn’t fix anything.
Valid point. Baker is +/-50% cheaper than most QB1s. But he’s not leading any team to the SB. He’s an average QB.
He’s still better likes better (and significantly cheaper) than the guy they replaced him with in Cleveland
The Browns never should have parted with Mayfield to begin with. Mayfield has a far greater rate of successful seasons than Darnold, who is being propped up by KOC’s system and playcalling. That comparison is a false equivalency.
ok then look at Geno Smith
You mean the dude who has 1 career playoff appearance at age 34? The same one who has 15 combined passing and rushing TDs to go with 12 INT and 6 fumbles this season?
The idea is that what he’s learned the last two years under Shanahan and KOC is more indicative of who he is than the dumpster fires he was thrown into with the Jets and Panthers. Some guys are just late bloomers too, and he’s only 27.
I don’t remember the exact terms of the deal Geno signed with the Seahawks a few years ago, but I think it came with a pretty easy out after two years and I imagine Darnold’s deal would be similar. I think spending $60-80 million for the next two years to see if he can maintain this form is a pretty decent gamble with the quarterback market being what it is.
He played for the Jets and Panthers
After watching both franchises fail to develop multiple “franchise QBs”
Jets – Darnold, Wilson
Panthers – Darnold, Mayfield, Young
Think we can say it’s the franchises not Sam Darnold
I’d give him 3 years 90 mill if I were the Giants, Raiders, Steelers
Giants you have weapons in Nabers Robinson Hyatt Tracy Jr you just need to fix that oline
Raiders have a lot of holes but signing Darnold would help let them use the draft to fix those issues plus they have tons of money like 100+ mill so they could easily fix that offense
Steelers have pieces as well on offense could stand to add more to Oline but definitely have weapons.
And draft an heir in 2026 or 2027.
Steelers are going to go with Wilson!
Yeah, Darnold isn’t in the cards for them.
I’m with Arty. Darnold seems like a system QB that would not play well if a bad (Giants or Raiders, for example) team signed him.
Probably not, but maybe it buy you time. This is a decision that should ideally be made based mostly on who you think is available in the next few years in the draft, not necessarily on the current NFL atmosphere.
Sure, a team could get a first round quarterback in any year, but is that player always worth it? Darnold could potentially give a couple of good years to help build a winning culture if he succeeds, or will at least help get a good pick if he doesn’t. He’ll be cheaper than another starter, and won’t cost a pick. And, if by some miracle he’s figured out how to develop, there could a Rich Gannon like renaissance for a couple of years. Personally, I think that he’s benefitted massively from the Vikings’ system and roster, and that he probably knows it.
Still, teams that tank forget that you can’t just snap your fingers and generate a winning culture by selecting a first round QB (as the Panthers and Bears have seen), and it takes some time trying to win to get one in place if it was missing before. That’s why having a guy who can at least set a tone of trying to win as a bridge could be beneficial for a team that’s biding it’s time to get the “right” guy in the draft. Sure, you might have to spend picks to move up, but if you find the actual right player at quarterback, then it’s worth it.
It might be convoluted, but basically my premise is that the bridge years, if they come up, should be filled with an option decent enough to win, but not so expensive that a team can’t move on. Darnold could be that guy. Unless teams think a quarterback this year is worth gambling on for the next five plus years, it might not be a bad idea to consider Darnold for the next two or so as a bridge. I don’t think that anyone sees Darnold as a multiyear commitment, despite his success, anyway.
Jets reunion? Ha
I know everyone keeps poking fun about a Jets reunion myself included….but they’re loaded talent and actually makes a great landing spot. Ben Johnson and Darnold would be a great matchup on paper.
Ben Johnson isn’t taking that job.
Might come to Buffalo if/when McDermott is fired for again failing to win the Super Bowl.
Can’t keep wasting Josh Allen prime years
Probably not
Minnesota wants the roster building benefits associated with a QB on a rookie contract.
They’ll likely enter next season with the same mindset they entered this season – Use a bridge option until McCarthy shows the ability to compete at a playoff level.
Jones could well be the perfect bridge option and that’s why they chose each other – Minnesota gets 2 months to evaluate him, he gets a 2 month headstart learning the offense.
Jones could have gone to better teams and been a pure backup or started for a bad team who had no plans for him beyond this season.
There’s a clear path for him to play meaningful football next year in Minnesota if things break right.
I think Jones is a good fit there too. But if you spend too much time playing a bridge guy over McCarthy then you’ll have to pay him before you fully know who he is, and it’ll cancel out the ability to build around a QB on a rookie deal. The time to capitalize on his rookie deal would be starting next year.
If he comes back healthy, I’d have to think he’ll be their starter next year. I like the idea of rookie QBs sitting for a year anyway, and obviously this wasn’t his choice because of the injury but he can still learn the playbook and feel comfortable with the mental side of it before having to play.
I agree. If they do retain Jones, Michael Chaney is right that McCarthy will need to play soon to get the value out of him that they need to see. Perhaps Minnesota could get away with another year like that, but it would look bad if McCarthy won the job pre-injury this year, only to come back healthy and sit the following year.
I mean being the Vikings fan I am I kind of figured. Also now Danny Dimes it’ll be interesting how this shakes out with McCarthy still there.
The Vikings don’t need Darnold, they’ve got Daniel Jones.
Jones is not as good as Darnold.
One guy has proven he’s a good fit with the Vikings while the other hasn’t. Why fix something that isn’t broken? The Vikings should resign Darnold and wait until he plays himself out of a job before moving on to Jones.
Darnold has impressed by playing a lot better this year, but he’s still shown limitations, and I think any environment he goes will be worse than Minnesota. I think realistically his best role is still bridge quarterback. Or maybe the favorite to start somewhere like Tennessee that has a rookie deal QB on very thin ice.
A Darnold in the hand is worth two McCarthys in the bush.
Sports Media people are so effing annoying. Always trying to MAKE effing news instead of reporting it. Such bullshxx.
How do they know Darnold won’t be back with the Vikings???
Only the Shadow knows.
Sports media people talk to agents and front office staff. That’s how they know things.
Well the media people claim to talk to these people but their reports frequently refer to the story source as “anonymous” or “a league insider” so it shouldn’t be a surprise that there is skepticism about the credibility of these media folks.
Uh-huh. This won’t end in a back-to-reality midseason benching at all.
That he might, but anywhere he could expect to go will probably have him in a similar situation. The Giants will probably draft a QB, the Jets (!) could if they do end up booting Rodgers, the Saints or Raiders could as well, if they move on from their current players (and the Saints have a pair of young QBs and n Haener and Rattler already). I just don’t see a clear starting job for Darnold right now.
There’s a chance that some team doesn’t get a player falling to them and could use Darnold for a little longer, but I don’t think that teams see him as a multi year starter, despite his good year. He’ll get a better deal than before, but it’ll likely top out with it only being a one year stint after it’s all said and done.
Kirk Cousins type deal but for less total money. I think he’ll start next year for a team then that team drafting a QB in ’26 and either trading Darnold or using him until the next QB is ready
Absurd. One year
Lets leave the speculation to next March. Anything can happen in postseason. As long as they make it without collapse.
Raiders(bridge QB)
Browns
Titans(Levis is not it)
Maybe the 9ers spin the block instead of paying Purdy $55-60million.
Perfect spot for the raiders or browns if they move off Watson
I’m curious if the Vikings franchise tag Darnold, then take the (2) 1st Rd compensation picks, with Darnold taking a longer term deal somewhere else. The Vikings basically have nothing but their 1st next year, and maybe a 3rd comp pick. This could be what the whole plan was in the first place. But they had to make Darnold look better than he had previously. That part has been done.
Why not sign Darnold and trade McCarthy?
Why let a (now) proven QB walk for nothing to roll the dice on an unproven QB?
Add the pieces you can get in the trade of a coveted QB prospect on a rookie deal to what you already have and be on the other side of the Herschel Walker deal this time.
Each one of the three picks in that one game were because Darnold was trying to force throws into a covered Justin Jefferson.
If JJ wasn’t open, someone else was.
Was Darnold so focused on JJ he didn’t bother to go through progressions?
OR
Was JJ moaning and groaning about his number of touches?