This NFL season saw several teams slip out of contention quicker than usual, slimming wild-card races and expanding the pursuit for the No. 1 overall pick. Two teams now lead that race.
While no prospect on the Caleb Williams level is dangling for the Raiders and Giants, an interesting showdown has formed. With three weeks to go, the Giants would currently hold the top 2025 draft choice. But based on projected strength of schedule, the Raiders would win the tiebreaker if the results held. The team with the weaker overall strength of schedule would win that. The Giants still have a game against the 12-2 Eagles, while the Raiders’ upcoming matchup with the 3-11 Jaguars works in their favor.
The Giants have not held the No. 1 pick in the common draft era (1967-present), last making a choice atop a draft in 1965 (running back Tucker Frederickson). Their Eli Manning trade occurred after the Chargers had chosen the quarterback to start the 2004 draft. The Raiders have held the top pick once in the common draft era, famously choosing JaMarcus Russell to start the ’07 draft. Both teams have coaches fighting for their jobs, but each also has seen All-Pros (Dexter Lawrence, Maxx Crosby) removed from equations. Losers of 10 straight, the Raiders follow their Jaguars matchup with games against the Saints and Chargers. The Giants, who have dropped nine consecutive games, go Falcons-Colts-Eagles to close the season.
Five 3-11 teams sit behind the Raiders and Giants presently, with the NFL having nine teams who have already lost double-digit contests. If a Giants or Raiders win occurs, there are candidates to move toward pole position in what could be races for Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward. Though, a non-Giants or Raiders team finishing in the top two creates a bit more intrigue, as both those clubs are in dire need of QB help.
With an eye on teams’ projected strength of schedule based on current records, here is how the draft order looks with three games to go:
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
- New York Giants (2-12)
- New England Patriots (3-11)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
- Carolina Panthers (3-11)
- Tennessee Titans (3-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11)
- New York Jets (4-10)
- Chicago Bears (4-10)
- New Orleans Saints (5-9)
- Miami Dolphins (6-8)
- Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-8)
- Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
- Arizona Cardinals (7-7)
- Seattle Seahawks (8-6)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
- Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
- Washington Commanders (9-5)
- Denver Broncos (9-5)
- Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
- Houston Texans (9-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
- Green Bay Packers (10-4)
- Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
- Buffalo Bills (11-3)
- Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)
- Detroit Lions (12-2)
- Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Unfortunately for Raiders fans, I could see them winning against either the Jags at home or the Rattler-led Saints
The Raiders are not going to pull one out. They haven’t even unleashed QB Carter Bradley yet. Tank Bigsby is about to earn a healthy contract with his HOF game coming up this week, and Rattler-led Saints almost pulled the epic comeback victory vs the Commanders.
I would also anticipate the Raiders putting more players on IR to end their season and see what they have deeper on the depth chart. It’s kind of unfortunate that the Raiders and Giants are not scheduled to play each other this year.
As a Giants’ fan I am all for the Raiders beating the Jags this week. If that happens and they’re both 3-12 who picks earlier? Have had nothing to root for in weeks for the Giants, once they released Jones not much new to yell at them about either.
Love the user name “markdavisbarber”. A bowl is all that is needed. Not talking super bowl.
Raiders have the strength of schedule if both end with same record.
It’s really amazing when you consider that the Browns actually have 6 other teams worse than they are, and that doesn’t include either the Jets or Bears. There are a whole lot of dumpster fire teams this season.
Granted, a lot of teams have had things go chaotically wrong this year, but it’s the most bad teams I can remember in a while.
Just thought I’d provide a list of Hall of Famers drafted by teams in their current draft slot….
Giants – Lawrence Taylor #2 in 1981
Titans – Robert Brazile #6 in 1975
Bears – Brian Urlacher #9 in 2000
Ravens – Ed Reed # 24 in 2002
Steelers – Alan Faneca #26 in 1998
Man … I miss the days when guys like Lawrence Taylor stepped onto the field. One Bad Mother F#(er… Was a different game when men roamed the field.
Still some bad dudes running around. They keep getting faster and stronger, maybe not as mean with the rules hamstringing them.
How are the Bills (11-3) ahead of the Vikings (12-2) ?
I think they’ve got it as a conference championship layout e.g. Eagles advance to conference championship game. The actual order will reverse the playoff results where super bowl winner picks last, loser 2nd to last, conference championship losers 3rd and 4th to last, etc.