The Steelers became the first team to go through with post-Super Bowl cuts, moving on from former starters Mitchell Trubisky and Chukwuma Okorafor. A much bigger domino is likely to fall in Denver.
Although the Broncos’ path to upgrade on Russell Wilson is complicated, they still are likely to separate from the pricey passer they benched before Week 17. The team and Wilson had gone through a messy behind-the-scenes chapter pertaining to the decorated QB’s guarantee vesting date, but pushback on that decision being strictly contract-related ensued. The Broncos benched Wilson for Jarrett Stidham, and while the latter is almost definitely not the team’s long-term answer, the Payton-Wilson partnership appears in its final days.
Payton confirmed during an appearance on Up & Adams a decision on Wilson should emerge sooner rather than later (video link). The second-year Broncos HC said the team began its draft meetings Monday. When asked if he was looking to “fall in love” with a QB this offseason, Payton responded, “Yeah,” continuing to point to the Broncos absorbing the record-shattering dead money that would come with a Wilson release. Wilson holds a no-trade clause, though his five-year, $245MM deal is not viewed as tradeable on the surface.
It would cost the Broncos $85MM in dead money to release Wilson; that will be spread over two years due to the expected release set to be classified as a post-June 1 cut. That will slot the 2024 dead money at $35.4MM. That number checks in just $300K north of what the Buccaneers absorbed when Tom Brady retired. Of course, Tampa Bay is no longer restricted by any Brady money this year. The Broncos will be set to deal with $49.6MM in dead cap in 2025. That alone will smash the NFL record, one the Falcons still hold (at $40.5MM) after trading Matt Ryan to the Colts in 2022. A Wilson release will need to occur before March 17; his 2025 base salary ($37MM) becomes fully guaranteed on that day.
The Broncos hold the No. 12 overall pick and cannot enter true negotiations with an outside free agent until March 11. The Bucs and Vikings can respectively talk with Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins now. If one of those players becomes an option in Denver, such a signing would be costly. Considering the dead money coming via the likely Wilson release, the Broncos would be tying up plenty of cash at QB were they to go with a pricey free agent option. Of course, none of this year’s UFA passers beyond Cousins or Mayfield are expected to be especially expensive.
During an appearance on the Jim Rome Show (via 9News’ Mike Klis), Payton mentioned Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees as quick-processing QBs while notably leaving out Wilson when discussing that important skill in his offense. Known more for off-schedule brilliance than pocket mastery, Wilson had moments in Payton’s offense. He still finished in the top 10 in passer rating, while QBR slotted the ex-Seahawks star 21st. A market is likely to form for the 12-year veteran, though he will not be tied to anything close to the $49MM-per-year deal he signed in Denver. Wilson, 35, is unlikely to command anything near his $35MM-AAV Seahawks extension from 2019. The less Wilson makes, however, the more money the Broncos owe due to offset language.
New NFLPA executive director Lloyd Howell said (via the Washington Post’s Mark Maske) the Broncos mistreated Wilson when they attempted to move his vesting guarantee date from 2024 to 2025. Wilson’s camp said the team threatened a benching had the QB not gone along; Broncos brass denied the benching threat occurred. The NFLPA had urged Wilson to call the team’s bye-week bluff. Wilson did, and the Broncos stayed with him as their starter until they were realistically eliminated from playoff contention. Despite Denver’s limitations when it comes to securing an upgrade this offseason, a reconciliation here — despite Wilson indicating in January he wanted to stay with the team — should be considered highly unlikely.
At No. 12, the Broncos are not realistic candidates to end up with Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Jayden Daniels‘ rising stock may well ensure the Heisman winner goes off the board well before No. 12. The Broncos have been loosely connected to trading up for one of these passers, but the team — which has not made a first-round pick since 2021, thanks to the Wilson and Payton trades — views the cost as high enough a move into the top three is unlikely.
This would naturally tie the Broncos to this QB class’ second-tier options, and Denver7’s Troy Renck notes that is already happening. Denver is being connected to Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy and Oregon’s Bo Nix within scouting circles, per Renck. An ex-Jim Harbaugh pupil who is not yet 21, McCarthy joins Nix in not yet being a first-round lock. Given the supply-and-demand issues at quarterback, however, it would certainly not surprise to see both prospects be chosen on Day 1.
The Broncos selecting a QB at 12, as opposed to trading up, would be optimal given the draft capital the team surrendered for Wilson and then to obtain Payton’s rights. Excepting Jay Cutler‘s intermittent promise, the Broncos have not had much luck drafting QBs. The franchise’s top passers (John Elway, Peyton Manning, Jake Plummer, Craig Morton) all game via trade or free agency. But Denver will likely be connected to this year’s crop. The 2025 group, although it is still quite early on that front, is viewed as a lesser group. That could force some teams’ hands ahead of this draft.
“Intermittent promise” is probably the kindest thing anyone has ever said about Jay Cutler’s abilities.
I know he won a Natty, but I never once saw McCarthy play and thought he could be a player at the next level.
I agree. Then again, I’m not super excited by Nix, either. And, as much as Wilson has hampered the offense, I don’t think that the dead cap is worth dealing with for a possibly average quarterback. If they do want to try, I don’t think that they need to move up. Of course, a lot of this depends on the offensive roster. If they keep their current pieces aside from Wilsons and try to compete, then yes, they’ll need a new QB. If not, and they just eat the money this year and trade away their other pieces and do not compete, they may as well start Wilson again. The relationship being contentious may have torpedo’d that, if you’re going to not compete, you may as well keep the noncompetitive QB if he’s going to unavoidably cost you $50 million. It sounds backwards, but that’s how I see it. If it’s a wasted year, waste it with the guy you’re paying, even if he limits the offense, and trade your talent. Backwards, I know.
In a more sane vein, I don’t think that Denver needs to spend a high pick on a QB unless they’re getting someone generational. If they’re just getting who is available, this draft is so deep (if not extraordinary) at QB that there will be options late. I’ve mentioned Rattler before, but he will be available after the first tier players fall. Penix, for some reason, seems to be behind many of the other names. There will be others, and Denver could have a good case for selecting another position, or even trading down in the first, and still getting the same level prospect at QB that they would have otherwise. Personally I like Rattler and Penix, particularly Rattler, potential-wise for Payton’s particular style, but that’s my own opinion that doesn’t need (or probably deserve) more time to go in to.
Nix and JJ always looked like back up NFL QBs to me they may come in and get a couple of wins. They are never the future starter, I guess JJ has a better chance due to Harbaugh.
What exactly is it about Bo Nix that screams back up? He passed for over 4,500 yards this year with a 77% completion rate. Not to mention 45 TD’s with only 3 INT’s that sure seems like a NFL starter to me.
Please don’t just regurgitate stats. He was bad at Auburn in the SEC where they are known for better defenses. The Pac 12 has bad defenses, the Oregon system makes him look really good as it schemes up open guys.
I don’t like PAC 12 players for football or Basketball. They don’t face the same competition as the SEC and honestly the Big Ten blows the pac 12 out of the water and I’ll probably go ACC before PAC 12.
JJ had a backfield with Corum and Edwards tearing it up. He made timely important throws in a lot of games, but you can’t win in the nfl with 1-3 great throws a game. They even had one game they basically ran the ball the whole second half to win.
Yep, took the words right out of my mouth.
I hear Zach Wilson is available. 😉
Mac Jones as well.
Seems to me that if the Broncos are determined to get a QB out of that draft pick and eat that much money, They need to trade down. Maybe even down to the 2nd round so they don’t have to pay bonus money to a 1st rounder. Makes sense to get more picks at a cheaper price and then either trade for somebody or take a flyer on 1 of these second round guys. I mean I know Wilson wasn’t good but was he so horrible that they couldn’t live with him for at least 1 more year? Seems like this turned into a hate thing real fast between Payton and Wilson. And if Wilson is openly defying Payton don’t they have cause to suspend him and save some of that money? This is dysfunction at it’s finest.
Why waste 2 seasons over Russ? Take the huge hit this year, & like you say, trade back in rounds 1-4 if possible for picks this year and next. But Sean thinks he’s a genius and will do as he pleases. I would be shocked if he didn’t trade up for a QB and then wonder why there’s no talent around him to be successful.
How was Wilson openly defying Payton? Where did you come up with that nonsense?
It was pretty much common knowledge that Wilson used to bring his “Entourage ” of people around and Payton had to throw them out. They had multiple shouting matches on the field and Payton benched him the last 2 games. When you get out of the cave, get on the internet more often. It’s really cool.
I’d be quite surprised to see Mayfield or Cousins reach the free agent market. They are both coming off good seasons and who exactly could be an upgrade in Tampa Bay or Minnesota if they were allowed to walk?
I’m a casual fan who doesn’t know how the salary cap system works. What, for example is dead money and how does that affect a team’s cap? More generally, what’s a good source for learning the ins and outs of the NFL salary cap system?
Spotrac and overthecap are good websites to get cap data and other financial items.
Dead money basically is cap space that is already reserved for a player that is being lost. If a contract has, say, $25 million guaranteed in each of the two years that it’s signed for, that means that the team will owe that player $25 million in both years, even if he’s cut.
Contracts are rarely that evenly cut-teams “frontload” or “backload” (backloading is more common) guaranteed money in deals so that certain years are cheaper than others. A guaranteed $100 million five year deal is almost never $20 million a year for five years. It’s usually something like $12 million the first year, $10 million the second, $30 million the third, $35 million the fourth, and then $13 million the last. I made up those numbers, but teams will usually have the early years’ number low so that they can add pieces soon, and inflate the back end. The final year is often low priced or not guaranteed so that the team can affordably cut the player if they don’t need him or if his performance slips.
You have to look at each deal to see how it’s written. A lot of the announced contract value is not guaranteed, though. Most have incentives. Others have money that’s only guaranteed for injury (like Wilson’s-if he got hurt, Denver owed him more money, so Denver sat him to avoid the injury, which the Raiders did with Carr last year). You’ll just have to look at each deal to see how money is written out, how much is guaranteed. Spotrac and overthecap are great places to start.
Thank you.
How can Brady retire and still create dead money for the team?
As Ak said,. The reason why Brady can retire and still count as dead money is that’s the price you pay when you do those stupid Cap restructure deals where you save money today and push that money down the road to future years. The greatest fallacy in football is the amount of money a contract is worth. It’s why when a contract is signed and the total is reported to be 200 million that number means absolutely nothing. Then they’ll say it’s 200 million with 125 million “guaranteed” That’s the number you need to worry about.You can never get rid of the guaranteed money. It has to be paid even if the guy ” Retires”. In baseball all the money is guaranteed, In football not so much.
I thought they brought in Peyton to make Wilson work…bcs cutting him really is not a viable option. Bcs it’s not. Peyton is a bum…just like Wilson. Broncos paid these guys…force them to make it work.
I look forward to seeing Russell Wilson playing for his next team. He will be a bargain signing for whomever, given the Broncos are on the hook for so much salary/offset this coming season. I think the Jets should make him an offer once released from Denver & see what he can do. They likely would have to pay for two years with the second season money on them. However, it would be worth the risk. Wilson is a good QB.
if he wants a shot to keep playing Jets are a no go they are QB killers . I me Poor Rodgers lasted how many games . I know he will be back with the Jets which is a huge mistake on his part of even going to the jets . the jets need to draft a QB to groom behind Rodgers but they will kill their next QB to
The best spot for Wilson to land would be Atlanta by a wide margin IMO. They have the offensive weapons to become a top 10 offense.
And, not to mention, a defensive coach who may be more inclined to let Wilson improvise.
The problem with Wilson is that he can only really run one system-roll out, let your receivers break free from coverage, and either run for yardage or make an improvised throw that breaks the defensive playcall. That’s the most basic, barest way to describe it. Payton wants timing, and throws across the middle, which Wilson does not excel at. Wilson can still be effective-he put up decent numbers stat-wise, though they should have been better-but he can only really run one style, which is limiting to a progression based coach (in terms of building plays consecutively) like Payton.
Hmmm, draft a QB who will get to play against his former coach 2x/yr. Interesting idea, or maybe the Broncos have someone holding their beer while they continue to make questionable decisions.
I don’t understand why they don’t suck it up with Russ for one more year, then cut him next year when the dead money is more manageable? Draft a lineman at 12. Take best available QB in 2nd round. Just one armchair GMs opinion.
Sean Payton seems smart enough to know this Bronco team is pure busted, but his options are pretty limited. The odds that anyone would willingly take Wilson’s contract off their books is small – even if they were to essentially leave him sitting out by the curb with a “Take Me” sign stuck to his forehead.
Yada, Yada, Yada. How about we just wait till March, before making any decisions.
It is a Rumors site, so the reporting is warranted, but you have a fair point. A lot can change.
Yeah, I just get tired of hearing about rumors that never pan out. I have probably read 20-30 different stories about Russ. I have seen the press push mock drafts down our throats for drafting a QB. Sean said they hadn’t even looked at college QB’s and doesn’t even know their names, yet rumors spread that Sean was getting rid of Russ. As good as gold, they said. That’s just lazy reporting and doing it for clicks. When I wrote for Bleacher Report, I wrote history pieces on players. Feel good stories, not the “Dirty Laundry” garbage. It just gets so tiring. I remember writing about Brian Dawkins. It was called, “The Brian Dawkins Story, A Class Act”. The Jag Mag wanted to print it in their magazine, but I said no, because they wanted to change the title. Once you give them rights to your story, by the time it’s printed, you wouldn’t recognize it anymore. But I was good. I kept my stories real and on point. Modern day reporters forgot that.
Fair points, and thank you beyond words for keeping your integrity. Seems lost in modern reporting, let alone modern life.
As far as ridding themselves of Russ gies, I think that Denver would like to, but it’s just so expensive that it really makes little sense. Even as much as he’s limited the offense, there’s a huge number attached to Wilson that will be a challenge to navigate for next year’s roster. A lot can-and will-change before then.
For me, I’ve never been a fan of forcing a quarterback pick for the sake of forcing it. Denver desperately needs a QB-their roster issues are much exaggerated, especially at WR-but picking the wrong guy just because you need a guy doesn’t help, either. So, no, I don’t think that they should pick a QB for the sake of doing so. Pick a guy you love, but there are other things you can do, too, with you being committed to a huge sum already for your incumbent.
I also think it makes no sense in getting rid of Russ. Keep him another year. See how he performs in his 2nd year under the same system. Bring back Tim Patrick under a restructured contract. Get rid of Jeudy. Play McLaughlin more. Continue trying to restructure Wilson’s contract. Rodgers gave back 30 million in order to bring in better players. Russ needs to show us how bad he wants to stay in Denver. We will soon know.
What’s hilarious is Wilson’s contract didn’t even start until this upcoming season. The sign him to that huge contract and he won’t even play a single snap for the Broncos under it