Until recent weeks, there was a small number of prospects thought to be in consideration for the top pick in this month’s draft. By virtue of ‘winning’ the pre-draft process, however, Georgia defensive end Travon Walker appears to have joined that group, and now has, in many people’s eyes, a strong chance of being the first to have his name called. 
[RELATED: Jaguars Considering Walker At No. 1]
Tony Pauline of Pro Football Network – who initially wrote that Walker could be the top-rated prospect by Jacksonville last month – reports that they might not be alone in that evaluation. As he wrote recently, “several teams have Walker graded as the top player on their draft board”, meaning that Jacksonville making him the top selection wouldn’t come as nearly the surprise it would have been until very recently.
On that point, CBS Sports’ Jason La Canfora adds that multiple executives see that exact scenario playing out. One told La Canfora that they are “running [draft] scenarios based off Walker being the first pick”. Other options for the top selection include Heisman finalist Aidan Hutchinson if the team prefers a more statistically accomplished edge rusher, or Ikem Ekwonu if they try to further bolster their offensive line.
In three seasons with the Bulldogs, Walker emerged as a versatile piece along the defensive front. His junior campaign saw a jump in production, as he totalled 33 tackles and six sacks. Those relatively pedestrian numbers contrast with his size (six-foot-five, 275 pounds) and impressive testing figures to give him a higher upside, according to many, than most or all other prospects in this year’s class. La Canfora notes the potential similarities between Walker and Aldon Smith, whom Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke drafted during his time in San Francisco.
Assuming Jacksonville holds on to the No. 1 pick, Walker would represent a noteworthy – but not entirely unexpected – selection. The ripple effect it would have on the rest of the top handful of picks would also add further intrigue to a first round about which very little is still known, despite the proximity of the draft taking place.
Because James Robinson is a fellow ISU alum I have become a Jaguars fan and I am very hopeful they take Walker, the ceiling is so high that it’s worth taking the leap of faith, I do believe Hutchinson is goin to be more ready to contribute immediately, but if your the jags and your picking between elite ceiling and comforting floor you gotta go with the ceiling
Personally, I think Walker has a chance to be a star, but that taking him over Hutchinson (or several other guys) would be nuts. You can talk about how high a guy’s ceiling is, but how far away is he from it and how high is he likely to get? Hutchinson doesn’t just have a comforting floor. He also has a very high ceiling and he’s much likelier to get close to it, because he’s already shown the things that would make him a star. And it’s not like he’s undersized or a low upside athlete. The difference in athleticism and size isn’t nearly as stark as the difference in skills and production. Walker had so, so little pass rushing productivity in college. Could he show more with coaching and change of role? Sure. But if you’re taking him first overall, you’re counting on him to get really good at skills he didn’t show in college. He never beat tackles in the SEC. Is he going to beat tackles in the NFL? Maybe. But he might be a Rashan Gary who takes the better part of two rookie deal years to turn into the pass rusher you projected him to be–and that’s a success story. If he turns out to be a physical freak who never develops much as a pass rusher, but is very good against the run and can drop into coverage some, that’s a good outcome for a later first round pick, but a bust of a top spot. Hutchinson’s realistic floor (not accounting for injury) is very solid pass rusher, with a very clear path to being more than that. Walker’s path involves developing new skills. Betting on athletic projects is fine and all, but he’s too much of a project to take first overall, and too much of a project to take over a great athlete who dominated in college. You want to take him over a Jermaine Johnson, who didn’t break out until a season he played at closer to 23 than 22, I get it completely. But over everyone else in the draft? No way I’d touch that.
Realizing how long this response was and just how much coffee I’ve had today.
I totally agree with your analysis. I also think Kayvon may end up being the second coming of Clowney.
Kayvon was a whole lot better than Walker in college. I think he’ll most likely at least be very good. Clowney had severe injury issues to overcome from day one.
Kayvon has motivation issues and that would be a huge red flag for me. Takes plays off. Doesn’t give 100%, 100% of the time.
Hutch is still my pick at #1. He’s the safest choice to get a need that can immediately contribute.
Have you actually seen these plays he takes off? He has stuff to work on, but he was still wildly more productive than Walker, and that red flag for Walker is vastly more concerning to me. I think the Thibodeaux stuff is overblown.
A few. I’m not much of an Oregon fan so I didn’t see too many of their games but did see a draft review on either fs1 or espn where they mentioned it and showed a few plays where they felt as much.
I’m not making this up out of thin air. It’s been widely documented and if the tv is bringing it up so are scouts.
In fairness I’m not a huge Walker fan either at #1. I think he’ll be good but not dominant.
I think a guy like Thibodeaux might even do better in the pros because he’ll be used more thoughtfully. The Georgia guys got to rotate much more because that defense was so deep. They didn’t need to take it easier on any plays.
Don’t let UGA’s scheme Walker played in, his lacl of counting stats, and not always clearly knowing what he was asked to do on a play by play basis fool you into thinking KT is all THAT much better of a player…
Walker is already a way more well-rounded, overall player than KT. He can drop into coverage successfully from time to time, he will always play the run and fill his gap extremely well, he’s extremely sound in his assignments, and he’s a quality pass rusher.
If Walker was simply asked to pin his ears back time after time, if he took plays off, and if he was just mostly used as a pass rusher he would have attained ALOT more of the “sexy” sack numbers alot of fans like to see. The facts are, that wasn’t what he was asked to do at UGA, he was rarely given such freedom and such an easy assignment.
Look at Jermaine Johnson’s sack numbers while he was at UGA compared to his last season at FSU. That is the difference in schemes and assignment responsibilities that I’m talking about exactly..
With Walker’s freakish athletic abilities, and with his excellent versatility as an overall well rounded lineman, he would easily be my pick no matter what team I’m picking for. He can be taught a few more pass rushing moves to make him an even better pass rusher, but it is going to take ALOT MORE TIME to make KT a better run defender on the edge, a better player dropping into coverage, and having him play every down just as hard even if he’s simply used as a gap filler to free up his other teammates to make plays…
But unless he shows pass rushing ability that he simply hasn’t before, that’d not a 1:1 caliber player.
I feel like there’s a lot of smoke screening going on, but that said, this draft seems like it will be one of the hardest to predict. I’ve seen Walker as high as #1 and as low as #9 in mock drafts from just this week.
I still expect Hutchinson to go #1, but after that, I don’t really have any idea what anyone is going to do. Should be a really interesting draft.
The problem with Walker’s production is that he could benefit immensely from learning better counter moves in his pass rush. He also occasionally would hesitate in the middle of his rush, which hurt his production stat-wise. He seems very coachable and shows better athleticism than his numbers would suggest, but good and detailed coaching is going to be essential for him to fully develop his pass rush to a highly productive level of consistency.
Remember, Aldon Smith had at least one double digit sack season in college, and his pro productive was helped along immensely by being paired with an elite defensive lineman in front of him in Justin Smith. They didn’t just play together, the 9ers purposely coordinated the two’s pass rush to free up Aldon Smith. It wasn’t all simply based on Aldon’s athleticism alone.
If they don’t want Lawrence to be the next Andrew Luck or David Carr, they need to protect him at all costs. I would take a OL or try to trade down and then take one. A DE isn’t going to help develop your QB.
They can get quality lineman from both sides of the ball later on in the draft with their picks. The Jaguars need to simply pick the player they have rated the highest, then they can fill in needs later on in the draft…
Teams drafting that high that reach for players based off of positional needs, and pass over the better overall players typically tend to regret it. All too often that is how top picks are wasted, and how losing teams remain mediocre. The ONLY time a team should ever draft for a positional need, is if their BPA tends to match said need, or if they have multiple players rated the same.
As fans we see it happen each each every draft year after year team’s continue to reach for positional fits passing over clearly more talented players, and year after year the majority of those same picks often come with regret..
There is no sure fire way to hit on a pick regardless, but, like I said, I’d always much rather my team simply take the clear BPA, especially when you’re making a top 5 or even top 10 pick where there are very few surefire difference makers..
I understand not reaching, but when you have a generational prospect at QB, you should do whatever you need to do to develop him. If they have an OT rated in their top five, they should take him. I get not reaching if they don’t have one in the top ten, but usually the top five or ten players can be interchangeable unless there are QB’s involved. Look what the Bengals did the last couple years. They got a great QB, then last year there was a dominant receiver, so they took him number five and drafted OL in second round and two more in later rounds. Receiver worked extremely well, but the line didn’t, so they remedied it in free agency this year. Now, they can add more to the defense. David Carr flamed out because they didn’t give him a line and he got destroyed. Basically, the same happened with Andrew Luck. Once, the QB, OL, and receivers are solidified, you can work on the defense, but points win games and if you can’t score, you won’t win.