The defining characteristic of this year’s draft class is the lack of bluechip prospects at the top of the board. As a result, a number of teams have expressed a willingness to trade down from even the highest draft slots towards the middle of the first round or later. 
Days away from the first round, ESPN’s Adam Schefter confirms that the desire to move back still remains (Twitter link). “Multiple teams”, as he states, have called others currently slated to pick outside of the top half of the opening round regarding trade scenarios. Not surprisingly, however, “the interest in moving back… has greatly exceeded the interest in moving up”.
The Jaguars have been named amongst the teams looking to trade down, though they have yet to receive offers for the top pick. The Lions have made it known they would be willing to cede the second overall selection; given the lack of quarterbacks worthy of that slot, however, it is also unlikely they will move down. That has turned attention to the trio of teams who each hold two picks in the top half of the round.
Texans general manager Nick Caserio recently spoke about the possibility of moving either the third or 13th overall selections. The latter seems to be the far likelier target for a team looking to move up, pointing further to the possibility of the top 10 remaining as-is come Thursday night. The two key teams with respect to those initial 10 picks are the Jets and Giants; Big Blue may have an incentive to move down from No. 7 for, among others, financial reasons, but both teams could stand to add impact rookies across a number of positions with their respective selections.
Overall, draft day trades will, as always, be a key storyline to watch. It won’t come as a surprise, though, if there are fewer of them on Day 1 than in previous years.
Gotta zig when others zag! jets trade up from 10 to 3 while thd price is low. Grab EDGE and Sauce
How much are you willing to give up? Trading up for a non QB is generally a losing proposition. Teams that draft better tend to be the ones that draft more. Betting too much on your evals bites you.
This year would be the year to do it, if they were set on it. The Jets won’t be moving as high as, say, the Cowboys, and the sheer number of teams attempting to trade down are going to ensure that this would cheaper in 2022 than in most other years.
Granted, I’m not a fan of moving up at all, but if you were going to do it, this might not be a bad year with how many teams are attempting to do the opposite.
Everyone is trying to trade down because the value at the top of the draft is poor. “Weak draft” is a misnomer, as the “weakness” is only at the top. The average talent level is always about the same; because, statistics. So more pretty high picks is better than fewer top picks. Jets would have to give up a 3rd plus a 4th to move their #4 to #3.
I think a draft that has more depth than elite talent is the year to enjoy having a lot of picks, not to cash them in for fewer, higher ones, especially for a team that isn’t one or two guys away. If the Chargers were looking to trade up for a top tackle prospect, for instance, I’d get that.
I actually agree, and that would be my strategy. What I mean is that this year would probably be a cheaper year to move up, especially with teams that have multiple high picks to fall back on.
The Jets are unique because they could have a chance to get one of the few possibly elite talents at the top. I do agree with both of you that more good players would be better than one or slightly better player, but the Jets are also in a position where they need an elite player or two to cap off what is a developing roster. I would still rather have more solid picks than one great pick if I were them, but I can see their position better than, say, Dallas’ when it comes to moving up.
I see what you mean AK, but history shows us that teams are wiser to let the board come to them than bet big that they’re correctly identifying the elite talents. Even this draft, people are projecting Walker to go ahead of Thibodeaux and Stingley. Don’t get me wrong, there’s a chance he turns out better, but I see a more direct path to superstardom for the other two and they’re likely to fall past him.
I agree with all that. I definitely think that Walker is not a better choice than either Hutchinson or Thibodeaux (or Neal) for the first pick as well.
Trading io for a qb is also usually a losing prop. I like the idea of getting a cheap boost this year.
If the Jets double dip into D, how does that help their QB at all?
By hopefully not forcing him to always play from behind? Don’t get me wrong, I would likely take a WR at 10, but the defense still needs a lot more talent and at some point Wilson needs to do better. Hopefully Becton plays a lot more this year and his QB coach doesn’t die. If they can get Thibodeaux and Stingley or Hamilton at 4 and 10, I’d understand waiting to see what offensive help falls to the second round.
I hear you. That D was awful. But I’d be willing to bet when P manning was in Indy, they probably spent 70% of their 1st rounders on O players. The Colts were comfortable with 35-28 shootouts, but on the winning side.
I believe when you invest a top 10, certainly top 5 pick, or higher or a QB; you have to feed the offense first and foremost.
There’s a reason the Jets and Jags are always drafting high.
Sure, but how much is enough? They spent first rounders on the line the last two years, plus a top of market free agent guard this year. They used a big free agent deal and a second rounder on receivers last year and two pretty big free agent deals on tight ends this offseason. It’s not like they haven’t put a lot of resources into the offense around him. (And again, I say this as someone who would love to see them try for a top receiver in the draft.)
I’m sure you’re right on the capital spent. I don’t follow it that close. But That O was just as bad as the D!
Because WRs can be found in mid to late rounds as well. If you have what you believe to be exceptional talent on the board at edge rush or DB I get taking them over a WR you feel is only marginally better than one you can grab later.
This draft has many ‘good’ players, but not great. The lines seem to be well stocked with prospects, but outside of that you have players with a very large range of draft position. The 2nd through 4th rounds should be interesting.
I don’t see any value in trading down from say 5 to 15. If you don’t like the offerings in round 1 then get out completely as George Allen always did.
What if you really want a quarterback and your board has Ridder ranked the highest? You definitely don’t take him 5 or 6 as in Carolina. Makes sense to trade down and get more picks
If you’re not sold on 1-5 but really like guys a little lower but don’t feel the need to pull the trigger on them at 5. In that case it definitely makes sense to trade down and stockpile picks while the others scramble to get up the board for a reach.
I don’t see 1-4 finding a willing partner to overpay for trading up. The Giants at 5 are interesting in that if teams are interested in a QB, the Giants could get a nice package for someone to slide in ahead of Carolina.