If you’re expecting fireworks on Thursday night, you may be disappointed. NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport notes that he isn’t hearing as much trade activity as usual (Twitter link), specifically with day-one picks. The reporter cautions that he could envision a team trading into the top-1o in pursuit of one of the top quarterback prospects, but other than that, the insider isn’t hearing a whole lot of first-round-trade chatter.
Rapoport offers another explanation for an expected lack of trades. There seems to be a consensus forming that there’s a drop-off in prospect quality after the top seven or eight players. As a result, teams are wary of trading back due to the significant drop in “elite, premium” players (the ol’ ‘take the dollar instead of four quarters’ mentality). Similarly, considering there’s only seven or eight top players in the draft, teams outside of the top-10 may believe they’re better staying put.
Peter King of Football Morning in America offers a similar sentiment. with one GM pointedly telling him that “the 49ers ruined the market by trading two ones to move nine spots.” As a result, teams in the top-10(ish) are expecting a king’s ransom for their first-round selection, and there aren’t a lot of suitors who are willing to spend big. Instead, King suggests that we may see a number of trades during the second day of the draft, with one GM describing No. 35 to around No. 75 as the “hotbed of this draft.”
For what it’s worth, NFL Network noted that there’s been an average of 5.2 trades made in the first round since 2011.
Of course, trade junkies have somewhat gotten their fill already. That aforementioned 49ers/Dolphins trade sparked off another deal with the Dolphins and Eagles.
I think this could be dead wrong. If a qb starts sliding I could see Denver or NE trading up. Baltimore just added an additional first round pick and could move up easily. Jacksonville has several top 100 picks besides #1 overall to move up. You have other teams like Pittsburgh that may want to move back and pick up more picks.
I agree with you. Atlanta is a real wildcard here a well.
I don’t see Denver trading up even if qbs start going.
Detroit needs to trade back & collect picks! I think Atlanta will take Pitts & ride w/ Ryan for another season or 2.
I agree. A dream scenario for Detroit would be to trade down and still get Parsons
No no yes
I am still thinking SF didn’t give up two number 1’s by trading up to get Mac Freaking Jones. If they don’t take Fields or Lance, they are the dumbest GM/Coach combination since Quinn/Patricia combination that the Lions just fired. There is simply no logic to SF’s decision IF IF IF it’s Mac Jones. Let’s pretend its Fields, then Atlanta takes Pitts. Cinci takes Sewell (unless they appease Joe with Chase), Miami takes Chase if he is there or Waddle if he’s gone. Detroit desperately wants to trade down but if Sewell is there, they grab him. 8 Carolina could take Smith or Slater, 9 Denver takes Lance if he is there or Parsons. 10) Dallas needs D so Surtain makes sense.
I think there will be plenty of trades. Plenty of QBs available and the other position player groups are top heavy.
Does the average of 5.2 trades made in the first round mean on draft day only? If not, according to the draft order published here a few days ago, six of this year’s first round selections have been acquired via trade.
It’s going to be like every year a lot of talk and no action like a Jake Paul fights
NFL Draft day drinking game: Take a hit every time a draft analyst uses the phrase “up-side”.
You’d be done five minutes into the pre show especially on espn
So, the 49ers pass on Mahomes for Solomon F’n Thomas, THEN trade draft capital for Jimmy G THEN trade a f*** ton of draft capital to replace Jimmy G and by severely overpaying for being inept they have messed up the market for everyone else. If they did all this to end up with Mac Jones, ima lose it.
I think there will be a few trades for sure. I also think by the end of day two Jimmy G is traded to NE. Regardless can’t wait for this draft. Pumped for it, felt like time was moving slow and finally the last two weeks have been flying. I hope the 49ers shock everyone and take Fields so all these guys claiming they know it all can back track like you know they will. “They last minute decided to go with Fields but Jones was the pick all the way up until the last hour or so” lol. Nobody knows anything, they don’t leak stuff and if they do it’s fake just to throw people off.
It feels like every year someone says there won’t be many trades, and then it always ends up being wrong. It’s fair that there’s a reasonable drop off in talent and maybe there’s not quite as much info available on these guys this year, but in the heat of the moment GMs get antsy and they’ll move up if someone they want starts to slip.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if there are even more trades than usual this year.