POLL: Most Important Game Of Week 14?

Only four weeks are left in the 2018 NFL regular season, and Week 14 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?

For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams, Patriots, Saints, and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 1% playoff leverage). Teams like the Lions, Giants, 49ers, Cardinals, Bills, Jets, and Raiders etc. will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.

But for some clubs, Week 14 means everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:

• Philadelphia Eagles (47%) @ Dallas Cowboys (42%) = 89%
• Minnesota Vikings (33%) @ Seattle Seahawks (16%) = 49%
• Baltimore Ravens (34%) @ Kansas City Chiefs (0%) = 34%
• Indianapolis Colts (28%) @ Houston Texans (2%) = 30%
• Denver Broncos (20%) @ San Francisco 49ers (0%) = 20%
• Carolina Panthers (17%) @ Cleveland Browns (1%) = 18%

Of course, there are other factors at play here as well. It’s not just playoff bids that are on the line here, many coaches are coaching for their jobs as well. Ron Rivera, John Harbaugh, and Vance Joseph are all in grave danger of being fired if their respective teams miss the playoffs, so perhaps those games have a little added meaning. There’s also a bunch of games with seeding relevance, as the number one seed in the AFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs is still wide open with four teams in contention.

So So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Eagles/Cowboys the most critical game of the weekend because it’ll go a long way toward determining the winner of the NFC East? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Panthers/Browns mean more because of the coaching implications? Vote below (link for app users), and add your thoughts in the comments section!