PFR Polls News & Rumors

Poll: Will Chiefs Re-Sign Eric Berry, Dontari Poe?

February 18th, 2017 at 6:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

Two defenders responsible for helping the Chiefs revitalize their operation in the mid-2010s are now two of the NFL’s most impactful free agents-to-be, and the major question involving Kansas City’s offseason will be if the team can retain both Eric Berry and Dontari Poe.

Each resides either at or near the top of his respective positional hierarchy as far as 2017 UFAs go, and the Chiefs do not stand to possess much in terms of cap space. While the team is expected to pass on Nick Foles‘ option to free up $6.75MM and will likely move on from Jamaal Charles ($6.19MM saved), the prospect of retaining both Berry and Poe will still be daunting.

Berry, of course, played the 2016 season on the franchise tag after the sides couldn’t come close to an agreement last July. The safety delivered maybe his best year, operating as a full-time defender throughout a season for the first time since 2013, and earned first-team All-Pro honors for the third time. Among active safeties, only Earl Thomas has achieved that status as often as Berry.

The safety landscape has also changed since Berry and the Chiefs were last at the bargaining table, with Tyrann Mathieu resetting the market with an extension that pays him $12.5MM annually. So, this could be a complex negotiation, especially considering the 28-year-old safety vowed he won’t play another season on a tag. Nevertheless, PFR’s Zach Links pegs Berry as a strong candidate to be tagged again.

Despite entering his eighth season, Berry has not signed a veteran contract. He played on an old-CBA rookie deal from 2010-15, and after making a triumphant cancer conquest en route to 2015 comeback player of the year acclaim, the Chiefs used the franchise tag to retain him for $10.806MM. Another tag, even as a means to an extension, would cost Kansas City $12.967MM and limit the team regarding Poe or the pursuit of higher-end outside free agents. John Dorsey confirmed the team is discussing re-ups for both players, but Berry’s agent pumped the brakes on Dorsey’s notion the talks are progressing positively. Dorsey’s signed numerous players to extensions, including several drafted by previous regimes, which Berry and Poe were. But being set for the last full season of his 20s, Berry figures to drive hard for a lucrative deal now.

Berry would certainly be the top safety available, while Poe might become the No. 1 defensive tackle on the market. The Panthers plan to use the franchise tag on Kawann Short, and with the Ravens prioritizing a Brandon Williams extension, Poe would induce a nice competition for his services if the Chiefs let the mammoth defender reach free agency. Although he’s a 3-4 nose tackle by trade, it’s likely Poe’s camp will be targeting a deal closer to Fletcher Cox or Marcell Dareus — or at least second-tier 4-3 DTs Michael Brockers ($11MM AAV) or Damon Harrison ($9.25MM AAV) — than traditional 3-4 inside men. A two-time Pro Bowler, Poe will turn 27 before the season begins. While his feelings about the tag aren’t yet known, it’s unlikely he’ll see it as a non-starter the way Berry does. The Chiefs and their largest player weren’t especially close on an extension in 2016. On a fifth-year option last season, Poe made just more than $6MM. A franchise tag would pay the former first-round pick approximately $13.47MM.

Unlike Berry, Poe has not delivered his best work over the past two seasons. A back surgery hampered his 2015 season, and Pro Football Focus graded Poe as its No. 59 interior defender a year later. The Chiefs also may have been planning for a future without their nose guard when they selected Chris Jones in the second round last year. Jones flashed often last season, looking like a long-term starter. Kansas City also has two starting defensive ends — Allen Bailey and Jaye Howard — tethered to the 2017 payroll at $6.16MM and $6.38MM, respectively. So, a Poe accord would stack that unit with veteran salaries and limit the team to some degree at other spots. However, both Bailey and Howard went down with season-ending injuries in 2016, further complicating this equation.

Kansas City stands to possess barely $4MM in cap space before making decisions on Foles and Charles. Due to a run of recent extensions and re-signings, the Chiefs don’t have a lot of other ways to create a quick cash influx. The Chiefs like to backload their deals, a tactic which helped them afford Jeremy Maclin two years ago despite scant cap room. But that strategy will see spikes in some players’ 2017 wages. An offseason featuring a backloaded Berry pact and a Poe tag would leave the team thin in space, and despite the Chiefs not possessing a host of glaring needs, these deals would prevent them from addressing them seriously in free agency.

So, do you see the Chiefs paying to keep both of these players? If so, how will the franchise tag come into play? How much will Berry’s standing as a cornerstone Kansas City athlete and inspirational figure impact his deal? Vote in PFR’s latest poll.

Poll: Should The Patriots Trade Jimmy Garoppolo?

February 7th, 2017 at 5:59pm CST by Ben Levine

The Patriots have drafted a number of quarterbacks over the past 15 or so years to back up Tom Brady, including Matt Cassel, Ryan Mallett, and (my personal favorite) Rohan Davey. However, none of these signal-callers held as much intrigue as current second-string quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Patriots hadn’t drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds since Drew Bledsoe in 1993, which added plenty of hype around the team’s second-round selection of Garoppolo during the 2014 draft. While many declared him the heir apparent to Brady, the Eastern Illinois product didn’t have much of a chance to showcase his skills during his first two years in the league. Excluding brief cameos during the 2014 season, Garoppolo served mostly as coach Bill Belichick’s victory cigar.

That was until this past season, when the third-year player had an opportunity to start the first four games of the season while Brady served his four-game suspension. The 25-year-old showed plenty of poise during his first two starts, completing 71-percent of his passes for 496 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Unfortunately, Garoppolo injured his AC joint during that Week 2 victory, and rookie Jacoby Brissett ultimately took over as the starter until Brady’s return.

Brady was dynamic following his suspension, throwing a career-low two interceptions while completing 67.4-percent of his passes (his highest completion percentage since his record-breaking 2007 campaign). Of course, the former MVP also led his team to the biggest Super Bowl comeback of all-time, giving him a record fifth ring.

Despite being 39-years-old, Brady hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, and this has predictably led to trade speculation regarding his back-up. These whispers have now been lingering for months, but the logic goes beyond the fact that Garoppolo is more than a decade younger than Brady. The quarterback is set to become an unrestricted free agent following next season. The Texans dished out $37MM in guaranteed money to Brock Osweiler following seven starts, so there’s no doubt that some desperate team would commit long-term money to Garoppolo.

Would the Patriots be willing to spend the money to retain him? The organization could re-sign the quarterback, or they could even opt to franchise him following the 2017 season. However, Brady has continually restructured his contract, and the current iteration of his deal lasts through the 2019 season. Even then, reports from this weekend indicated that the team was looking to extend Brady again next offseason. Plus, the Patriots still have Brissett signed to his rookie contract, and reports indicate that the organization is intrigued by the young signal-caller.

There certainly would be a number of teams willing to give up some assets for Garoppolo. Recent reports have connected the Bears, Browns, and 49ers to the quarterback, and more teams will surely pop up as the offseason continues. For what it’s worth, recent reports indicated that the Patriots would be willing to move their young quarterback, and the team is apparently seeking a first- and fourth-round pick in return.

The downside is all based on hypotheticals. Brady could realistically fall off a cliff suddenly, similar to what happened to Peyton Manning in 2015. Brady could also suffer a devastating injury, leaving the team with no options besides Brissett. Of course, Brady will have to retire eventually, and having a replacement ready to go has typically worked out for franchises.

That leads to my question: should the Patriots trade Jimmy Garoppolo? Let me know your thoughts in the comments.

Poll: Do You View Kyle Shanahan Differently?

February 6th, 2017 at 10:15am CST by Zachary Links

In the wake of what could have been the most exciting Super Bowl ever, everyone is trying to suss out exactly what happened: was Tom Brady a miracle worker or did the Falcons effectively give the game away? Things fell apart for Atlanta on both sides of the ball, but there is a lot of finger pointing in the direction of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

Shanahan, who will serve as the next coach of the 49ers, was hired to help get the offense back on track after two abysmal years. The Niners are hoping that he’ll exercise better judgement than he did in the late stages of last night’s game. The Pats rallied back from a 28-3 deficit to bring the score to 28-20 late in regulation. Instead of running the ball three times at the Pats’ 22-yard-line with ~4:30 left, Shanahan got too cute and called for a deep pass play on second down. Ryan got sacked on the play and the Falcons’ subsequent attempts to dig out of the hole only pushed them further out of field goal range. Atlanta was forced to punt on fourth down, and that set up the Pats’ tying drive.

Should this be chalked up to a momentary lapse in judgement, or do you think less of Shanahan’s ability to lead SF after last night’s costly error? Vote here and explain your position in the comments below.

Poll: Where Will Tony Romo Play In 2017?

February 4th, 2017 at 6:00pm CST by Sam Robinson

The Cowboys’ unquestioned starter for nearly 10 years, Tony Romo is now a key element in the NFL offseason because of his arrow pointing out of Dallas. While it’s no certainty the Cowboys will let him go, he wants another chance to be a starter. And several teams have emerged on his prospective list.

Sources pointed to Romo preferring the Broncos last month, and the latest coming out of the Romo sweepstakes leads to the 36-year-old quarterback wanting to play for a contender. The Broncos, Chiefs, Cardinals and Texans are on this short list, one that does not appear to include the Bills despite the franchise’s interest. Each of Romo’s choices has a reason not to pursue the four-time Pro Bowl quarterback, but with the exception of the Cards, none of these teams has a better option. That is, if Romo is healthy after two injury-besieged seasons.

It would qualify as a high-profile risk, and one teams likely aren’t willing to take due to the veteran’s league-high $24.7MM 2017 cap number. But given how close the aforementioned AFC squads are to Super Bowl contention with suboptimal passing attacks, acquiring a proven veteran like this should be considered.

Initially zooming to the front of the Romo race, the Broncos are reluctant to trade for Romo. Although, despite John Elway‘s proclamation about the team preferring another Trevor Siemian-vs.-Paxton Lynch battle — one likely to be tilted toward Lynch — Mike Klis of 9News reported recently the Broncos could be interested in Romo as a free agent. They obviously have experience in this kind of decision, but having Lynch as an incumbent is a bit different than only Tim Tebow standing in Peyton Manning‘s path in 2012.

The Broncos’ recent first-round investment in Lynch makes wanting to see what the 6-foot-7 prospect can do soon reasonable, but after a year in which he struggled in Gary Kubiak‘s offense, the raw talent having to learn Mike McCoy‘s could make him closer to a longer-term project than a player who would help complement the Broncos’ elite defense next season. Due to Denver not having a franchise-quarterback salary on its books and deploying the No. 1 DVOA defense in back-to-back seasons, a Romo/Broncos partnership should remain a high-volume talking point for a while. Although, the Broncos currently have the worst offensive line of the teams in this conversation, which should be a factor for an injury-prone passer.

Kansas City is now 0-for-5 in its past five divisional-playoff games, spanning 22 seasons, after losing to Pittsburgh despite the Chiefs scoring two more touchdowns than did the Steelers. The Chiefs are a logical Romo destination because management may be determining Alex Smith has taken the team as far as he can. Ian Rapoport of NFL.com reported earlier today the Chiefs are eyeing a quarterback upgrade.

Romo would be the only quarterback, among veterans who figure to be available this year, that would qualify as an upgrade on the 32-year-old Smith. Although, the Chiefs have a staggering modern history of eschewing the draft route for veteran signal-callers. From Joe Montana to Smith, the Chiefs’ preferred signal-callers have been veterans. This string predates Montana, with Todd Blackledge (1983) being the franchise’s last first-round QB choice. So it could be time for management to look toward a younger heir apparent. But the Chiefs’ nucleus appears close to pushing for a Super Bowl, and Smith’s $7.2MM dead money figure makes a split more plausible than in the past.

Houston may have made the most sense for Romo due to its proximity to Dallas and having a defense housing J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. It would have been an ideal fit before the team’s ill-fated Brock Osweiler investment. The Texans, though, are believed to be prepared to draft a quarterback and are not expected to pursue Romo. The Texans have at least one more year before they’re able to make a non-damaging Osweiler cut. The four-year, $72MM deal would come with a $25MM dead money blow if Houston was to release Osweiler in 2017. Next year, that figure drops to $6MM. And making that financial sacrifice for a player who hasn’t been healthy for a full season since 2014 would be risky.

The Cardinals are also equipped to win after advancing to the 2015 NFC championship game, but they might be due for another season with their incumbent 37-year-old passer. Bruce Arians expects Carson Palmer to announce a return soon, and Larry Fitzgerald coming back would make a Palmer 2017 re-emergence more likely.

Romo is currently signed through 2019, and the Cowboys are looking set to continue the Dak Prescott era. Despite Prescott’s nondescript pedigree, he shined in Dallas’ ball-control offense and played well in the team’s last-second playoff defeat. Having him under team control for three more seasons on a rookie deal makes this an easy decision.

The interest in Romo should be constant, pointing to a trade. But the aforementioned contending teams won’t be eager to make that happen. If no trade materializes, the Cowboys would be forced to decide if they want to follow through on carrying the league’s most expensive backup. They are currently projected to be $11MM over the cap, complicating this situation further.

So, where do you think Romo will play in 2017? Will he follow Manning’s path to Denver? Will the Chiefs pull the plug on the Smith experiment after four years? How serious are the Texans about avoiding this pursuit? Is there a darkhorse team out there?

Poll: Who Will Win Super Bowl LI?

January 29th, 2017 at 10:40am CST by Rory Parks

We are a week away from Super Bowl LI, and the world is rife with Super Bowl predictions, analysis, prop bets, and recipes. As preparations for America’s unofficial national holiday rage on, it is time for our readership to let us know their pick to take home the Lombardi Trophy. Will the Patriots bring home their fifth world championship? Or will the Falcons rise to the occasion and parade the Lombardi through the streets of Atlanta for the first time in franchise history?

The Falcons, of course, set the league ablaze with the NFL’s most prolific offense, led by an MVP-caliber season from quarterback Matt Ryan. Behind Ryan, second-year head coach Dan Quinn, and second-year offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, the Falcons won the NFC South and secured a first-round bye. Once in the playoffs, Ryan was able to exorcise some of his postseason demons, leading his team to home victories over the Seahawks and Packers en route to Houston, the site of Super Bowl LI.

While the Falcons will be appearing in the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1998 season, this is all pretty familiar to the Patriots. New England took home its eighth straight AFC East title in 2016, and despite Tom Brady‘s four-game suspension to open the season, a season-ending injury to Rob Gronkowski, and some disappointing defensive performances, the Patriots steamrolled their way to a 14-2 record, a No. 1 overall seed, and two fairly easy postseason wins (although their divisional round victory over the Texans was a bit more of a struggle than one might have expected).

New England is currently viewed as a slim favorite in what could turn into a high-scoring affair, but Atlanta looked unstoppable in its romp over the Packers last week, and this one has all the potential to be memorable.

So what say you? Will Super Bowl LI be business as usual? Or will a new team join the world champion ranks?

Poll: Should Chargers Fire Mike McCoy?

December 26th, 2016 at 9:05pm CST by Sam Robinson

One of the coaches potentially guiding his team through Week 17 preparation for the final time, Mike McCoy is positioned in an interesting place regarding his status with the Chargers.

His head-coaching record over the past two years — the Chargers’ first consecutive losing seasons since 2000-01 — makes him an easy chopping-block candidate. The Bolts will finish with either nine or 10 wins combined in McCoy’s third and fourth seasons, doing so after they made the divisional playoff round in his first and finished with the same 9-7 record — but short of the postseason– in his second.

And a prospective move to Los Angeles after 55 years in San Diego makes starting fresh an understandable move for a franchise that would be, in this scenario, moving from the most popular team in its current market to a potential lower-tier entity in its next. CBSSports.com’s Jason La Canfora pointed to the L.A. move when reporting the Chargers will begin searching for McCoy’s replacement soon.

Another sign pointing to the Bolts moving on after four years — which would be the least amount of time they’ve given a coach since Mike Riley (1999-01) — is the lack of an extension offer. As of now, McCoy would enter 2017 as a lame-duck coach after signing a one-year extension in January to cover ’17. Of course, both Marty Schottenheimer and Norv Turner — who received five and six years, respectively, in San Diego — each helped the team to at least two division titles. McCoy, though, faced tougher opposition during his tenure, with former charge Peyton Manning guiding the Broncos to three straight division championships and finishing off a stretch where Denver secured the AFC’s top seed three times in a four-year span.

It’s also difficult to analyze the Chargers over the past two years and not start with injuries. Player unavailability has marred McCoy’s past two seasons, helping contribute to the Bolts falling off their perch as a middling AFC team to a bottom-tier outfit.

San Diego’s 2016 has been worse than its ’15 regarding setbacks, with Keenan Allen, Jason Verrett, Danny Woodhead and Manti Te’o being among numerous players who wound up on IR. Jahleel Addae and Joey Bosa missing portions of the season due to injury contributed to the struggles as well. McCoy also could not deploy Bosa for nearly the entire offseason due to the No. 3 overall pick’s battle with Chargers management.

The Chargers have also lost almost all of their games over the past two years in one-score fashion, dropping nine contests by eight points or less in both this season and 2015. This line of thinking led Ben Volin of the Boston Globe to estimate McCoy will be kept for a fifth season, the loss to the Browns notwithstanding.

McCoy has also presided over a resurgence from Philip Rivers, who enjoyed the finest season of his career in the head coach’s 2013 debut. Rivers completed more than 66 percent of his passes from 2013-15, surpassing that standard for the first time in his career. He eclipsed 30 touchdown passes for the first time in consecutive slates under McCoy (2013-14) before finishing second in the league in passing yards last season despite missing some skill-position threats.

However, Rivers has regressed to some degree this season, completing just 60 percent of his throws. At 19 interceptions, the 35-year-old passer is one away from matching his career high. While Rivers hasn’t enjoyed the luxury of having his full complement of pass-catchers available, he’s off his usual trajectory under McCoy. He would presumably have to adjust to a new offense in 2017 if the offensive-minded leader is ousted, factoring into the McCoy decision surely.

So, how much of a pass should McCoy get due to the Bolts’ spate of injuries of these past two years? Has four years been enough regardless of circumstances? And how does a possible relocation to Los Angeles factor into this decision?

Poll: Are Cowboys NFL’s Best Team?

November 25th, 2016 at 9:31pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

In pulling out a 31-26 win over the NFC East rival Redskins on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys improved to 10-1 and became the first team in the NFL this year to reach double-digit victories. Most of Dallas’ success has come thanks to an elite offense fronted by a dominant line and two sensational rookies – fourth-round quarterback Dak Prescott and first-round running back Ezekiel Elliott.

As those who pay any attention to the league know, Prescott was only supposed to be a temporary fill-in while Tony Romo recovered from an August back injury. The 23-year-old instead stole the four-time Pro Bowler’s job and has combined for 23 touchdowns (18 passing, five rushing) against two interceptions. Thanks to Prescott’s stinginess, the Cowboys are tied for first in the league in giveaways per game (0.6).

While Prescott’s resounding early success has come as a shock, Elliott has been as advertised. The former Ohio State star went fourth overall because his greatness with the Buckeyes was supposed to transfer to the pros, which it has. Elliott entered Thursday as the league’s rushing leader, and he increased his advantage over second-place DeMarco Murray – a former Cowboy – with a 97-yard performance. Elliott is now up to 1,199 yards on a league-high 243 carries, and he ranks second in the sport in rushing touchdowns (11).

With so much going for them on offense – including tight end Jason Witten, receivers Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley and, should something happen to Prescott, the league’s premier backup QB (Romo) – it doesn’t appear an attack that entered Thursday first in DVOA is going to fade down the stretch. The Cowboys’ defense is another matter, though: While the unit has given up a fairly meager 19.4 points per game – good for 10th in the league – it’s a distant 22nd in yards allowed per contest, and 25th in both DVOA and takeaways per game (0.9). Dallas’ work against the pass has been especially problematic, and its ineptitude was on display when it allowed Redskins signal-caller Kirk Cousins to complete 41 of 53 passes for 449 yards and three touchdowns on Thursday. The Cowboys also failed to sack Cousins, and have taken down opposing QBs only 20 times.

One thing the Cowboys’ defense has going for it – and one thing that helps explain the team’s lack of points surrendered – is that it doesn’t spend much time on the field. Dallas’ offense leads the league in time of possession (33:12 per game), as Lorenzo Reyes of USA Today noted Friday, thereby taking even more pressure off a less-than-stellar defense. That formula has worked swimmingly so far, but it could backfire in the playoffs against a team like the 7-2-1 Seahawks – who rank in the league’s top 10 in both offensive and DVOA and might stand as the Cowboys’ top competition in the NFC.

The likes of the Patriots (8-2), Raiders (8-2) and defending champion Broncos (7-3) are among those that should also be in the discussion for the league’s No. 1 team, though any of them would only serve as a hindrance to the Cowboys in a potential Super Bowl matchup. Having to face one of those teams this season would be a welcome task for Dallas, whose latest Super Bowl appearance came in a January 1996 win over the Steelers.

As things stand, the Cowboys are on track for a first-round bye in the postseason and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That indicates that they’re the league’s preeminent team, but do you fully buy into their nearly spotless record? Are they the current Super Bowl favorites?

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 10?

November 12th, 2016 at 6:31pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Week 10 slate of NFL games might be the best lineup of the entire season, as multiple contests feature contending clubs vying for postseason berths. With so much on the line, which matchup is the most important?

For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Patriots and Cowboys are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 5% playoff leverage). The Browns, Jaguars, Bears, and others will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.

But for other clubs, Week 10 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:

Cincinnati Bengals (18.1%) at New York Giants (24.9%), 43% total
Minnesota Vikings (21%) at Washington Redskins (18.3%), 39.3% total
Denver Broncos (16.4%) at New Orleans Saints (19.7%), 36.1% total
Atlanta Falcons (12.3%) at Philadelphia Eagles (23.3%), 35.6% total
Miami Dolphins (15.2%) at San Diego Chargers (18.3%), 33.5% total
Green Bay Packers (19.5%) at Tennessee Titans (12%), 31.5% total
Kansas City Chiefs (15.2%) at Carolina Panthers (9.3%), 24.5% total

Other Week 10 contests aren’t included here for various reasons. While Cowboys/Steelers and Seahawks/Patriots figure to be exciting contests, they won’t impact the playoff chances of at least one team involved. Similarly, Texans-Jaguars and 49ers-Cardinals only affect the odds for one club, and project to be one-sided games.

It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Falcons — who face a 12.3% PPL — lose to the Eagles on Sunday, they’ll still have a greater than 80% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Bengals, while facing a similar PPL to the Falcons (18.1%), will have less than a one-in-five chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Giants. If Cincinnati wins, that number rises to about 35%.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Bengals/Giants the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Broncos/Saints, mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section!

Poll: Who Will Win The AFC West?

November 6th, 2016 at 5:01pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Even though the defending Super Bowl champions are a member of the AFC West, the division’s prospects looked extremely cloudy heading into the 2016 division. In PFR’s preseason predictions, three writers picked the Chiefs to take the division crown, with the Raiders and Broncos picking up two and one vote(s), respectively. Additionally, four of six PFR writers projected an AFC West club to claim a Wild Card berth.

And thus far, the division is still up for grabs — the Broncos, Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers all rank in the top half of the NFL in DVOA, while Denver, Oakland, and Kansas City all have better than a two-thirds chance of making the postseason, according to Football Outsiders (all statistics current through Week 8). In Week 9, the Chiefs have already posted a victory, the Chargers are leading the Titans, and the Broncos and Raiders will square off in an extremely important Sunday night contest.

Each of the four teams in the division has an area where they could improve, including the two clubs who will play tonight. While Denver’s defense is once again one of the best in the league, its offense ranks just 21st in DVOA. Much of that struggle can be attributed to quarterback Trevor Siemian, but the Broncos’ offensive line play has also been poor. Oakland, meanwhile, has posted excellent offensive numbers, but its defense is giving up more than 410 yards per game, 31st in the NFL.

The Chiefs are using the Denver model (20th in offensive DVOA, ninth in defensive DVOA), and are dealing with an injury to their quarterback, Alex Smith. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been impressive based on raw totals, but on an efficiency basis, the club ranks 29th in the league. San Diego’s defense is also playing well, as is Philip Rivers, but the Chargers could use more help from their offensive line, which ranks in the bottom-third of the NFL in both run- and pass-blocking, per FO.

Tonight’s game will have a large impact on both Denver and Oakland’s playoff odds: as Brian Burke of ESPN.com tweets, the Broncos are facing a 15.9% probability leverage (change in chance of making the postseason based on the results of this week’s game), while the Raiders are staring down a 26.2% PL. The Chiefs and Chargers were looking at a 21.2% and 13.6% change, respectively.

So, what do you think? Will Broncos hold on to defend their division title? Will the upstart Raiders upend them? Will the uber-consistent Chiefs take over? Or will the Chargers surprise everyone and storm back to take the crown? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comments section!

Poll: Who Will Win The NFC South?

November 3rd, 2016 at 8:08pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

At the outset of the season, the NFC South wasn’t supposed to look as wide open as it currently does. Back then, the Panthers were the clear-cut favorites after going 15-1 last year and rolling through the NFC playoffs en route to a Super Bowl berth. The 2016 Panthers are a far cry from the 2015 version, though, as reigning NFL MVP Cam Newton and the rest of the team have fallen to earth amid a 2-5 start. Carolina is in last place in the division, trailing two 3-4 rivals (the Buccaneers and Saints) and the 5-3 Falcons. More alarming, perhaps, is that the Panthers have already lost to all three of those clubs this year, giving them that much more ground to make up in the race.

The Falcons, led by MVP candidate Matt Ryan, superstar wide receiver Julio Jones and running back Devonta Freeman, are 2-1 in the division and boast its only positive point differential (plus-31). They’re also facing the Buccaneers, who are 2-0 in the NFC South, on Thursday in a crucial divisional battle. A win would make the Falcons all the more difficult to catch, while a victory for the Bucs would vault Jameis Winston & Co. to .500 and keep them perfect against their closest rivals. A Falcons defeat would also cause flashbacks to last season, when the club collapsed after a 6-1 start to finish 8-8. This year’s Falcons began 4-1 and are now in danger of dropping three of four, though their fifth overall ranking in Football Outsiders’ DVOA seemingly indicates they’re for real. Nobody else in the division is even in the top 20 in that metric.

The Saints are at No. 23, but they’ve come around in the standings after an 0-3 start and will reach the .500 mark for the first time this season if they beat the lowly 49ers on Sunday. In their signature victory of the year, the Saints upset the Seahawks, 25-20, last Sunday. That was already the sixth one-score game of 2016 for the Saints, who have gone 3-3 in those contests. That’s also true of the Falcons, while the Bucs have recorded a 2-1 mark in one-score affairs and the Panthers have logged an 0-3 record.

While Atlanta and New Orleans are defensively challenged, both have tremendous offenses and top-tier quarterbacks in Ryan and Drew Brees. Conversely, Tampa Bay and Carolina haven’t done anything at an elite level this year. Barring offensive or defensive turnarounds, that would seem to put each behind the 8-ball, though Newton showed in 2015 that he’s capable of performing like an unstoppable force. Given their general decline this year, the Panthers will need Newton to resemble his 2015 self over the season’s final nine games if they’re going to win the division for the fourth straight year. If not, one of the other clubs should finally dethrone Carolina atop the NFC South.

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