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Poll: Who Will Pick First In The 2019 NFL Draft?

November 21st, 2018 at 10:06am CST by Zachary Links

With just five weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is starting to take shape. And, of course, the race to the bottom is gaining clarity as well.

With some help from the Football Outsiders’ DVOA On the Clock report, let’s run down some of the candidates for the top pick in the 2019 NFL Draft:

Arizona Cardinals (30.8% chance of No. 1 pick, 88.8% chance of top-five pick)

Sunday’s contest between the Cardinals and Raiders was not exactly must-watch television, but it did carry serious NFL Draft implications. By losing 23-21 to Jon Gruden‘s squad, the Cardinals became the most likely team to net the top pick in the spring. Ideally, the Cardinals would like to end the season on a higher note, but their fans aren’t necessarily of the same mind. The Cardinals’ final six games come against the Chargers, Packers, Lions, Falcons, Rams, and Seahawks, which is not exactly a cupcake schedule.

Oakland Raiders (28.6% chance of No. 1 pick, 90.6% chance of top-five pick)

Sunday’s win was a slight blow to the Raiders’ chances of picking first, but don’t tell that to Gruden & Co. Things haven’t gone as planned this year, so they’ll take positives wherever they can get them, even if it’s a W in a meaningless November game. The Raiders’ secondary stepped up in a big way against Arizona, but the pass rush is clearly missing the game-changing talent of Khalil Mack. From here on out, wins could be harder to come by with two games against the Chiefs (twice), Steelers, and Bengals.

San Francisco 49ers (27.6% chance of No. 1 pick, 83.9% chance of top-five pick)

The Niners’ Week 10 loss to the Giants was bad for morale, but it greatly increased their chances of hitting the podium first. After their bye, the Niners will return to face the Buccaneers, which is either a good or bad matchup depending on which way you want the team to go as a San Francisco fan. The 49ers’ offense has not looked the same without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and running back Jerick McKinnon, but they still have some firepower thanks to the emergence of tight end George Kittle. They’re effectively in a three-horse race for the top choice, but they might not be the smart pick in this poll thanks to a relatively easy schedule down the stretch.

New York Jets (4.7% chance of No. 1 pick, 50.5% chance of top-five pick)

This offseason will be one of tremendous change for the Jets. Head coach Todd Bowles seems likely to get the pink slip and GM Mike Maccagnan will have upwards of $100MM to spend on the open market. Will they also be armed with the No. 1 overall pick? The Jets have been putrid, for the most part, and their last outing against the Bills may have been the low point of the season. But with three wins at this stage of the season and a few winnable games ahead, the Jets are not the odds-on favorites to pick first.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.5% chance of No. 1 pick, 41.7% chance of top-five pick)

The Buccaneers have flip-flopped between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick throughout the year with mixed results. Unfortunately, their problems have extended beyond the quarterback position and injuries have not helped matters either. One important thing to note is that both Winston and head coach Dirk Koetter are playing for their respective futures in Tampa. There will be no tanking here.

Outside of those clubs, the Bills (1.8% chance of No. 1 pick, 31.5% chance of top-five pick), Giants (1.3% chance of No. 1 pick, 27.4% chance of top-five pick), and other cellar-dwellers are in the mix for the top selection.

So, who will it be? Click below to cast your vote (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comments section.

Poll: Which Non-First Place Team Could Still Win Its Division?

November 15th, 2018 at 5:59pm CST by Dallas Robinson

With 10 weeks of NFL action in the books, the playoff picture is beginning to crystallize, but there are certainly still divisions up for grabs. There are eight non-first place teams which still have at least a 10% chance to win their respective division, per FiveThirtyEight.com. That cutoff will leave out clubs like the Packers (9%) and the Colts (7%) who still theoretically could take their division, but I think it’s a good glance at where things stand.

Let’s take an overview of each club:

Tennessee Titans (49% chance to win AFC South)

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Titans actually have better odds at taking the AFC South than the Texans, who currently sit in first place in the division. It’s not a huge difference between the two clubs, as Houston has a 43% chance to win the South, but the odds are slightly in Tennessee’s favor. The Titans have looked like an entirely different team over the past three weeks: after averaging only 262 yards of offense from Weeks 1-6, Tennessee has averaged 371 yards per game over their last three contests.

Minnesota Vikings (40% chance to win NFC North)

The Vikings still have to play the division-leading Bears twice, and one of those games will come this Sunday night in a contest that could certainly help decide the NFC North winner. Minnesota could be facing an uphill battle for the rest of the year, however. While the Vikings have faced the NFL’s third-easiest schedule to this point, they’ll go against the league’s fourth-most difficult slate from here on out (per Football Outsiders).

Philadelphia Eagles (26% chance to win NFC East)

Rewind to early August when I posed the following question to PFR readers: Which 2017 first place team is likeliest to miss the postseason in 2018? The Eagles received only 3.2% of the vote, last among the eight 2017 division winners, but they now have only a one-in-four chance of taking the NFC East. It’s easy to dismiss the Redskins’ low-octane offense, but their two-game lead on Philadelphia can’t be ignored. The two teams face each twice over the rest of the season, including a regular season finale that could decide the division.

Dallas Cowboys (20% chance to win NFC East)

Like the Eagles, the Cowboys are also two games behind the Redskins, but Dallas doesn’t have the advantage of playing Washington twice more this year (having already lost to the Redskins in Week 7). The Cowboys are the second-lowest variance team in terms of DVOA through 10 weeks, but they might need some spiked weeks — especially on the offensive side of the ball — if they want to overtake the Redskins and Eagles. The wisdom of sending a first-round pick to the Raiders in exchange for Amari Cooper can be debated, but he’s certainly performed well (11 receptions, 133 yards, one touchdown) through two games in Dallas.

Carolina Panthers (15% chance to win NFC South)

The Saints look like Super Bowl favorites after taking out the previously undefeated Rams in Week 9 before demolishing the Bengals in Week 10, and they very well may be. But the Panthers are only two games behind New Orleans in the standings and still get to face the Saints twice. All that adds up to only a 15% chance of winning the NFC South, but it’s not nothing, especially if Cam Newton continues to play at something close to his 2015 MVP level.

Los Angeles Chargers (13% chance to win AFC West)

Like the Panthers, the Chargers are second in their division to a team (the Chiefs) that’s gotten a ton of publicity…but the Chargers are also one of the of the NFL’s best teams. They rank third overall in DVOA, and they’re one of only two teams — along with the Bears — that boast a top-10 DVOA unit on both sides of the ball. Melvin Gordon is on pace to post 1,840 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns, and Philip Rivers is arguably posting the best season of his career, at least according to passer rating and adjusted net yards per attempt.

Cincinnati Bengals (11% chance to win AFC North)

The Bengals are reeling following a 51-14 loss to the Saints in Week 10, and they responded by making changes to their coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Teryl Austin was fired, clearing the way for head coach Marvin Lewis to take over defensive play-calling, while old friend and ex-Browns head coach Hue Jackson is now in the building, as well. Whether those changes will help fix a defense that’s on pace to allow more yards than any in NFL history is anyone’s guess, but Cincinnati will also have to make hay without star wideout A.J. Green for at least one more game.

So what do you think? Will one of these teams claim their division? Or does a team not listed here — Packers? Colts? Ravens? — have a chance to take home a crown? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comment section! (Link for app users).

Poll: Who Will Browns Hire As Head Coach?

November 15th, 2018 at 11:06am CST by Zachary Links

After firing Hue Jackson, the Browns installed defensive coordinator Gregg Williams as the team’s interim head coach. This week, GM John Dorsey confirmed that Williams will be considered for the full-time post, but no matter how well the team does down the stretch, Dorsey will do his due diligence and speak with a number of candidates.

By the end of this season, the Browns will have gone through 16 straight seasons without a playoff berth and patience is obviously running thin in Cleveland. The club has a lot of confidence in Williams, who is regarded as one of the top defensive minds in the NFL, but there are a number of interesting candidates for the Browns to consider this offseason. Here’s a quick glance at the field and some speculative candidates for the post:

Lincoln Riley – The Oklahoma Sooners head coach was quickly connected to the Browns thanks to his previous partnership with quarterback Baker Mayfield. Riley is still only 35 years old and in his second year as a head coach, but NFL executives seem to love his energy and passion for the game. If the Browns want Riley, they may have to compete with the Cowboys and other clubs to get him.

Josh McDaniels – Would NFL teams consider the Patriots’ offensive coordinator just one year after he left the Colts at the altar? The short answer is yes. Despite all of the hand-wringing over Tom Brady‘s age and possible discord in the Pats’ locker room, McDaniels’ offense has been clicking all season, save for a few blips such as last week’s loss to the Titans. McDaniels flopped as a young 30-something head coach with the Broncos and his flip-flop turned off a lot of people, but the Browns have to be at least a bit curious about what he could bring to the table.

Matt Campbell – Like Riley, Campbell is another coach from the college ranks who has been connected to the Browns gig. The Iowa State head coach lacks NFL experience, but Albert Breer of SI.com hears that those connected to Dorsey are big fans of his. He’s also a relative youngster, but it may make sense for the second-youngest team in the NFL to employ a 30-something head coach. His strong Ohio ties may work in his favor as well.

Jim Schwartz – The Eagles’ defensive coordinator was a hot candidate for head coaching vacancies last year and it stands to reason that he’ll draw attention again this year. Schwartz’s run as the Lions’ head coach from 2009 to 2013 did not go as planned, but the Eagles’ Super Bowl victory revitalized his career and his desire to run his own show again is evident.

Dave Toub – Ex-head coaches, offensive coordinators, and defensive coordinators usually draw the most attention, but what about a special teams coordinator? Toub has been an NFL special teams coach since 2001 and this year, the Chiefs added the title of Assistant Head Coach to his nameplate. The Chiefs’ offensive unit is understandably getting all of the headlines, but it’s possible that Toub could build off of 2017’s interviews with the Broncos and Chargers to get into the mix with Cleveland.

Matt LaFleur – LaFleur made a name for himself in Atlanta when he helped guide Matt Ryan to an MVP campaign. After that, he hooked on with the Rams and got results out of Jared Goff. He didn’t call plays as Sean McVay‘s OC, but he took the wheel this year with the Titans. The Titans’ offense has looked pretty sharp with a healthy Marcus Mariota under center and LaFleur could be considered by the Browns and other clubs with HC openings.

David Shaw – Shaw, the head coach of the Stanford Cardinals, has been connected to several NFL head coaching jobs in recent years, though he did not interview for any in the last cycle. Shaw could conceivably draw consideration here, but it wouldn’t be the sexiest pick.

George Edwards – The Vikings had the top defense in the NFL last year under Edwards’ command, allowing just 275.9 yards per game and 15.8 points per contest. Edwards obviously deserves credit for the Vikings’ success, but he’s a DC that doesn’t call the plays, and that may hurt him in his candidacy with the Browns and other teams.

John DeFilippo – The Cardinals and Bears both considered DeFilippo after his tutelage of Carson Wentz and backup-turned-hero Nick Foles. When he fell short, he jumped ship to become the offensive coordinator of the Vikings.

Zac Taylor – The Rams are living up to their lofty expectations and Goff is looking better than ever, so the Rams’ quarterbacks coach could be a candidate for the Browns. Ditto for passing game coordinator Shane Waldron. Both coaches have popped up on the lists of gambling oddsmakers and they have the endorsement of McVay. “Man, I love these guys. I don’t want to lose them though,” McVay said recently. “They’re great coaches. But I think, the one thing that you look back on is just getting an opportunity to work with these guys. What great coaches they really are. They’re great communicators, great teachers, great leaders – that’s pretty consistent throughout our staff.”

Mike McCarthy – Could Dorsey’s head coaching search lead him to an old friend? The Packers are just 4-4-1 through nine games and McCarthy is believed to be on the hot seat. As Dorsey looks to change the culture in Cleveland, he could do a lot worse than to hire someone like McCarthy, who has taken the Packers to the playoffs on nine occasions, including a Super Bowl victory after the 2010 season.

Other – There will probably be a dozen more names connected to the Browns’ opening in the coming weeks, including a few coaches who will be laid off at the end of the season. If you have another candidate in mind, choose “Other” in the poll and let us know about your pick in the comment section.

Click below to cast your vote (link for app users):

Poll: Will Le’Veon Bell Play This Season?

November 8th, 2018 at 2:20pm CST by Zachary Links

The Le’Veon Bell watch continues. For months, it was expected that the Steelers star running back would report for work by Nov. 13, the deadline for him to sign his franchise tag and play in 2018. However, Bell’s camp only recently confirmed that the running back does not have to show up for work by Tuesday in order to solidify his status as a free agent for next season, which means that Bell could theoretically stay home for the entire season. 

Originally, it was believed the Steelers would have the right to franchise tag Bell again for the same rate as this season if he did not ink his tender by the deadline on Tuesday. As it turns out, the price of the third tag would actually jump to the quarterback level, which would cost upwards of $25MM. The transition tag would technically be in play, but the Steelers are very unlikely to match any offer and such a move would saddle the team with an unnecessary cap hold.

All of this means that Bell can stay at home and preserve his health for free agency, though it would mean losing out on approximately $6MM in salary after already having forfeited $7.7M in game checks. Some say that Bell should get back on the field to prove his commitment to football and reassert himself as one of the game’s best running backs, but the 26-year-old firmly believes that he’ll find a strong market for his services no matter what.

Do you expect Bell to show up by Tuesday to face the Jaguars on Nov. 18? Or do you think Bell will extend his holdout through the end of the season? Click below to cast your vote (link for app users) and back up your choice in the comment section.

Poll: Who Will Claim RB Ameer Abdullah?

November 6th, 2018 at 6:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Lions finally cut ties with running back Ameer Abdullah earlier today, ending a three-plus-year run that included numerous rumors of trades that never came to fruition. Abdullah hasn’t accrued four NFL seasons, so he’ll hit the waiver wire (and would have done so anyway given that every NFL player who is cut after the trade deadline goes on waivers).

Abdullah hasn’t had much pro success since entering the league as a second-round pick in 2015. He’s topped 150 carries just twice, failing to top 4.2 yards per carry in either of those seasons. This year, Detroit has stopped using Abdullah altogether, as he’s only appeared in three games and made one rushing attempt. But for clubs in need of running back/returner help, Abdullah could make for a worthwhile add, especially given that he’s only due ~$413K for the remainder of the 2018 campaign.

So what teams could be interested in making a waiver claim on Abdullah? Let’s run through the options:

New England Patriots

The Patriots are always on the hunt for interesting players, but Abdullah may have made more sense for New England a few weeks ago when fellow running back Sony Michel initially went down with injury. James White has filled in admirably, but Abdullah could have given the Pats another option in their backfield. However, Michel is now likely to return for New England’s Sunday night contest against the Titans (Twitter link via Adam Schefter of ESPN.com), so there may not be room for another runner on the Patriots’ roster. Abdullah’s prowess on kick and punt returns would also be nullified in New England, as the Patriots already boast arguably the league’s best returner in Cordarrelle Patterson.

Philadelphia Eagles

After reportedly being in the hunt to acquire a running back via trade at the deadline, the Eagles instead opted to pursue wide receiver help by picking up pass-catcher Golden Tate from the Lions. But the Philadelphia roster could still use another runner after losing Jay Ajayi for the season, so Abdullah could be a candidate to land with the Eagles. If the Eagles did claim Abdullah, however, they’d likely be forced to waive promising undrafted free agent Josh Adams, something I’m not sure they’d consider doing in order to make room for Abdullah.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are all set at running back with James Conner, and if Le’Veon Bell returns before his deadline next week, Abdullah clearly won’t be in consideration for Pittsburgh. But the Steelers have dangerously little depth behind Conner, as the club has only journeyman Stevan Ridley and rookie Jaylen Samuels behind its workhorse. Abdullah could add another dimension to the Steelers’ backfield in the event Conner went down, and — in the more immediate future — give Pittsburgh a boost on kick returns, where they currently rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ special teams metrics.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While the Buccaneers are barely on the fringes of contention (just a six percent chance to earn a postseason berth, per FiveThirtyEight.com), they need to do something about their running game. Deploying a combination of Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers, and rookie Ronald Jones (who is now injured), Tampa Bay ranks 24th in rushing DVOA, 29th in yards per carry, and 30th in yards per game. Given the success of their Air Raid passing offense, the Buccaneers don’t necessarily need to be effective running the ball, but adding Abdullah couldn’t hurt.

Tennessee Titans

There’s no hiding the fact that Dion Lewis is no the Titans’ No. 1 running back. As Adam Levitan of Fantasy Labs pointed out on Twitter today, Lewis’ snap count has increased from 32 to 45 to 59 over the past three games, while Henry has seen his snap count dwindle from 12 to 24 to 14 over the same stretch. Chris Mortensen of ESPN even reported earlier this week that Tennessee attempted to trade Henry prior to last week’s deadline but couldn’t find a taker. It seems unlikely the Titans will simply cut Henry, but if they do, they’ll need another back on their roster, and Abdullah could fit the bill.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins don’t need anyone to usurp Adrian Peterson, but they could use another pass-catching back given that Chris Thompson just can’t seem to stay healthy. Thompson, who’s managed to play a full 16-games slate just once during his six-year career, has been dealing with rib and knee injuries all season, and missed Sunday’s contest against the Saints. If Washington doesn’t think it can rely on Thompson to stay on the field, Abdullah could make for an advisable addition.

So what do you think? Will one of these teams — or a club not listed here — claim Abdullah? Or will he pass through waivers and become a free agent? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comment section! (Link for app users).

Poll: Which Sub-.500 Team Has Best Chance To Make Playoffs?

November 3rd, 2018 at 9:45pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the trade deadline having passed, teams have a better idea what everyone’s optimal stretch-run lineups will look like. A handful of dominant teams have surfaced, and several second-tier contenders are present as well.

But what about possible late-blooming teams? Multiple squads picked by many to advance to the playoffs are under .500. Which teams will the second-tier contenders have to worry about in the second half?

The obvious place to start is the AFC South, where a once-0-3 team is in front. The Texans entered the season with the best Las Vegas playoff odds and are living up to the hype. They’re a major threat to become the first 0-3 team to make the playoffs since the 1998 Bills. The division’s other three teams have three wins, hovering behind the Chargers, Bengals and Ravens in the AFC wild-card race.

Jacksonville’s decision to retain and extend Blake Bortles is backfiring, but the team still offers one of the best defensive outlooks in the game. However, the defending division champs have lost four straight and still have the Texans, Steelers and Redskins on the schedule.

Indianapolis won two straight going into its bye, has a three-game homestand on tap, and one winning team remains on its schedule. Featuring Andrew Luck (23 TD passes, second in the NFL) and an improved front — headlined by the first guard to win an a rookie of the month award in Quenton Nelson — Indy’s offense ranks sixth in scoring (28.9 points per game). Tennessee’s only 3-4 but may be in more trouble, having lost three straight and sporting the No. 30 passing attack. Marcus Mariota‘s thrown just three touchdown passes this season; the Titans have games against the Patriots, Texans and Redskins left.

Shifting to the NFC South, can the Falcons overcome their litany of defensive injuries and crawl back into the race? At 3-4, Atlanta is one game out of the NFC’s second wild-card spot, and Matt Ryan is on pace to surpass 5,000 yards in a re-established aerial attack. But the Falcons’ defense sits 31st in DVOA, though Deion Jones is on the way back, and their ground game ranks 30th. Atlanta also has six road games remaining.

The Buccaneers may be headed toward a postseason house-cleaning, with Dirk Koetter (and probably Jason Licht) back on the hot seat and Jameis Winston benched. Can Fitzmagic and a deep pass-catcher arsenal save Tampa Bay or at least stave off another bleak second half?

In trading a first-round pick for Amari Cooper, the Cowboys certainly believe they’re a stealth contender. At 3-4 and behind both the Redskins and Eagles in the NFC East, the Cowboys defied conventional wisdom and gave up what could be a top-12 pick for an inconsistent wide receiver. While Dallas carries the No. 11 DVOA defense, its offense (25th) hasn’t clicked. That said, the team’s lost its past two road games — against division leaders Houston and Washington — by six combined points. If the Cowboys can’t pull this off, might it finally be the end of the line for Jason Garrett? Jerry Jones said he’s not considering an extension for the signed-through-2019 HC.

The Jets were not expected to make the playoffs, have lost two straight and still have two Patriots games left. More was expected of the Broncos, whose post-Super Bowl 50 trajectory represents a prime modern example of the quarterback position’s importance. Although they quietly are DVOA’s No. 7 team, the Broncos are 2-10 in Vance Joseph-coached road games and have five remaining games against winning teams. Those will come after the team made a seller’s trade in unloading Demaryius Thomas. The Lions, too, sold a key asset and appear to be playing for the future. However, they’re still only one game out of the NFC North lead.

So, who has the best chance of re-routing their season into a playoff bracket? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Did The Giants Do Enough Before The Deadline?

November 1st, 2018 at 4:51pm CST by Zachary Links

The Giants kicked off trade season with a bang by trading cornerback Eli Apple and defensive tackle Damon Harrison on back-to-back days last week. Many expected the Giants to continue their demolition on Tuesday, but that did not come to fruition. 

At 1-7, the Giants have no real hope of making the playoffs this year, so a complete fire sale would have been logical and largely accepted by the team’s passionate fanbase. There were real pieces to move, too, including cornerback Janoris Jenkins and safety Landon Collins.

Jenkins, who just celebrated his 30th birthday, drew the attention of the Chiefs this week. With two-and-a-half years to go on his five-year, $62.5MM deal, the Giants had an opportunity to add to their draft stockpile while dropping one of the highest-paying cornerback contracts in the NFL. If the Giants decide to cut Jenkins this offseason, they’ll save $7.75MM against the cap, but they’ll be left with nearly as much ($7MM) in dead money.

The decision to keep Collins is certainly understandable since he is just 24 years old. However, he’s in the final year of his rookie deal and figures to command serious offers on the open market. The Giants reportedly have concerns about how well Collins fits in their new defensive scheme, so it’s not a given that they’ll make a strong play to keep him. The Chiefs and Buccaneers were reportedly interested in Collins, but no team was willing to meet the Giants’ asking price of a 2019 second-rounder and a late-round pick in 2020. Rival GMs made offers, but no one ponied up more than a third-round choice.

The Giants had other vets to dangle, including defensive end Olivier Vernon and linebacker Alec Ogletree, but the Giants passed on making any additional deals on Tuesday. Was that a mistake by the Giants, or do you think they did enough in the way of midseason rebuilding? Click below (or here, for app users) to weigh in and sound off in the comment section:

Poll: Best Acquisition On Deadline Day?

October 31st, 2018 at 6:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In 2014, the year Pro Football Rumors was established, there were 23 NFL trades that involved veteran players (ie. deals that didn’t simply involve teams moving up and down the board on draft day). Just four years later, that number has more than doubled, as the league has seen 61 deals go down since the league year opened in March.

There are myriad reasons why the NFL is becoming a more trade-happy league, and Andrew Brandt of Sports Illustrated outlined several of them yesterday: younger general managers that are more comfortable making swaps; gobs of cap space; and the NFL’s decision to move the trade deadline back by two weeks. Whatever the explanation, it certainly makes the league more fun on deadline day.

Five trades occurred on Tuesday, with five contending clubs making what can only be described as win-now moves. Let’s take a look at each deal before deciding which team made the best acquisition at the deadline:

Texans acquired WR Demaryius Thomas and a 2019 seventh-round pick from the Broncos in exchange for a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2019 seventh-round pick.

  • Houston needed another pass-catcher after losing Will Fuller to a torn ACL, and while the 30-year-old Thomas isn’t exactly a perfect replacement for the speedy Fuller, he’ll give head coach Bill O’Brien and quarterback Deshaun Watson another option as they look to build on their five-game win streak. Thomas was the only player acquired on Tuesday who is signed beyond the 2018 season, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll stick with the Texans next year barring a contract restructure. He’s due a $14MM base salary in 2019, which seems untenable for a player whose production has dipped in recent campaigns.

Eagles acquired WR Golden Tate from the Lions in exchange for a 2019 third-round pick.

  • Nelson Agholor has been among the least productive wide receivers in the NFL this season, ranking next-to-last in Football Outsiders’ DYAR, which measures value over a replacement level player. Tate figures to usurp Agholor in the slot, and the Eagles could now play quite a bit more “11” personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers). To date, Philadelphia has deployed that personnel package on only 54% of plays, fourth-least in the league, per Warren Sharp. Another plus for the Eagles? They don’t have any cap space to use in 2019, and their projected lack of free agent activity almost certainly ensures they’ll reap a compensatory selection in 2020 if Tate leaves via the open market.

Ravens acquired RB Ty Montgomery from the Packers in exchange for a 2020 seventh-round pick.

  • The Montgomery trade is a horse of a different color, as the Packers likely felt forced to deal Montgomery after he allegedly went rogue by taking a kickoff out of the end zone (and subsequently fumbling) against the Rams on Sunday, depriving Aaron Rodgers a chance at a late game comeback. As Michael Silver of NFL.com detailed, Green Bay veterans were understandably flabbergasted by Montgomery’s decision, so his departure could be viewed as addition by subtraction. That doesn’t mean Montgomery can’t be effective for the Ravens, however, as he can contribute in the passing game, the running game, and on special teams.

Rams acquired LB/DE Dante Fowler from the Jaguars in exchange for a 2019 third-round pick and a 2020 fifth-round pick.

  • The Rams didn’t exactly need more help getting after opposing quarterbacks given that they’ve managed a league-high 39.2% pressure rate. Los Angeles is getting most of that pressure from the interior (see: Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh), but outside linebackers Samson Ebukam and Matt Longacre are also playing well despite not being household names. Fowler, the third overall pick in the 2015 draft, is in the midst of his best season to date, and he’ll now likely be asked to rush from a stand-up, outside ‘backer position instead of his usual 4-3 defensive end spot. Jacksonville had already declined Fowler’s 2019 fifth-year option, so the Rams don’t have to worry about another high salary hitting their books next year.

Redskins acquired S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers in exchange for a 2019 fourth-round pick.

  • In terms of player-for-player upgrade, perhaps no team did better on Tuesday than the Redskins. Clinton-Dix, who ranks as Pro Football Focus‘ fifth-best safety in 2018, will be replacing Montae Nicholson, whom PFF grades a bottom-three defensive back league-wide. Washington already ranks ninth in pass defense DVOA, and the club only figures to improve after acquiring Clinton-Dix from Green Bay. Clinton-Dix is scheduled to become a free agent next spring, and while he almost certainly wouldn’t agree to an extension before hitting the open market, the Redskins do have the option of using the franchise tag to keep him around. Washington doesn’t have any other obvious franchise tender candidates, and the salary for safeties should only be worth ~$10MM.

So what do you think? Which team made the best acquisition on Tuesday? Vote below and leave your additional thoughts in the comments section! (Link for app users.)

Poll: Should Broncos Be Sellers?

October 27th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Entering a crucial Week 8 game in Kansas City in which the Chiefs are 10-point favorites, the Broncos may be on the verge of a tough decision.

A loss to the Chiefs would drop them to 3-5 and behind in a pursuit of their first playoff berth since winning Super Bowl 50. What makes Denver’s case interesting is the number of veterans from that championship season the team still has in key roles who are attractive trade chips.

Beyond Von Miller, who should be considered untouchable, the Broncos’ defense relies on versatile All-Pro cornerback Chris Harris and longtime starters Derek Wolfe and Brandon Marshall. Denver’s starting wide receivers — Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders — are in their fifth season together. Bradley Roby and Shane Ray are both in contract years. Each has played key roles for the Broncos for years, Roby in particular.

Even if the Broncos play out the season trying to creep back into the playoff picture, how many of these players will be on the 2019 team? Denver does rank a surprising fifth in DVOA and has a softer second-half schedule. But even after a 45-10 win over the Cardinals, the Broncos are just 2-9 on the road during Vance Joseph‘s tenure. This makes a late-season run appear difficult.

Thomas is probably the most interesting case. He may be the second-best wideout in Broncos history, behind Rod Smith, and remains a useful contributor. But Sanders (603 receiving yards) is on pace for his best season since his Peyton Manning-aided 2014 slate, sliding Thomas (372 yards) into the No. 2 role Sanders played for years. Thomas also has a $17.5MM 2019 cap number, much higher than Sanders’ $12.9MM figure. This, and emerging second-rounder Courtland Sutton, point to Thomas almost certainly not being part of the 2019 Broncos.

But how much could Denver get for its high-priced, soon-to-be 31-year-old wideout? Unlike a Roby, Ray or Shaquil Barrett free agency departure, the Broncos couldn’t land a compensatory pick for Thomas. Trading him before Tuesday’s 3pm CT deadline would make sense if the Broncos don’t believe they can realistically compete this season.

On the other hand, Denver’s struggled for years to find a viable wideout behind Thomas and Sanders. Sutton (17.6 yards per catch) has provided that. Trading Thomas would weaken an offense that already doesn’t have much at tight end and depends on a lower-tier starting quarterback. Denver could also shop Thomas in the offseason, though the compensation likely would be minimal.

Teams are more interested in Sanders, but the 31-year-old wideout is a better bet to be on the 2019 team in the final season of a three-year, $33MM deal. Denver appears open to dealing Thomas.

Suitors are also inquiring about Harris, but that would gut a Broncos defense that doesn’t have the cornerback depth it possessed for years. Pro Football Focus has Harris again among its top-10 corners, and he has another season remaining on an affordable, five-year, $42.5MM deal. It’s possible Harris could join Miller as a defensive cornerstone into the 2020s, with Roby’s status beyond 2018 uncertain. That would probably be more valuable to the Broncos than the mid- or late-round draft capital they’d acquire in exchange for the 29-year-old corner.

A fifth-year starter, Marshall may be in his final games as a Bronco. Fourth-round rookie Josey Jewell could take over as a starter next season at a rate obviously much cheaper than Marshall’s $9MM 2019 cap number. Playing on a $8.5MM fifth-year option, Roby’s drawn interest, too. No substantial extension talks are known to have taken place. Ray’s high ankle sprain likely will keep him in Denver throughout his contract year.

With two games against the Chargers, and matchups against the Steelers and Bengals, still on the Broncos’ docket, should they be ready to deal non-essential cogs if they lose to the Chiefs? Or, does Denver’s DVOA position indicate a late-season turnaround is possible, making an all-hands-on-deck approach worthwhile?

Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 8?

October 25th, 2018 at 7:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

We’re nearly at the halfway mark of the 2018 season, and Week 8 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?

For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 5% playoff leverage). The Jets, Browns, Bills, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, and 49ers will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.

But for other clubs, Week 8 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:

  • Seattle Seahawks (27%) at Detroit Lions (15%) = 42%
  • Miami Dolphins (18%) at Houston Texans (20%) = 38%
  • Baltimore Ravens (16%) at Carolina Panthers (21%) = 37%
  • New Orleans Saints (14%) at Minnesota Vikings (22%) = 36%
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12%) at Cincinnati Bengals (18%) = 30%
  • Philadelphia Eagles (17%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11%) = 28%

Other Week 10 contests aren’t included here for various reasons. The Steelers have high postseason probability leverage (24%) against the Browns, but the contest is essentially meaningless on Cleveland’s end, as the Browns have little chance of earning a playoff berth. The Rams/Packers game, meanwhile, figures to be an exciting contest, but nearly all the leverage is with Green Bay (24%).

It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Ravens — who face a 16% PPL — lose to the Panthers on Sunday, they’ll still have a greater than 65% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Dolphins, while facing a similar PPL to the Ravens (18%), will have roughly a one-in-ten chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Texans. If Miami wins, that number rises to about 30%.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Seahawks/Lions the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Saints/Vikings mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section!

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