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Poll: Who Will Claim RB Ameer Abdullah?

November 6th, 2018 at 6:54pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The Lions finally cut ties with running back Ameer Abdullah earlier today, ending a three-plus-year run that included numerous rumors of trades that never came to fruition. Abdullah hasn’t accrued four NFL seasons, so he’ll hit the waiver wire (and would have done so anyway given that every NFL player who is cut after the trade deadline goes on waivers).

Abdullah hasn’t had much pro success since entering the league as a second-round pick in 2015. He’s topped 150 carries just twice, failing to top 4.2 yards per carry in either of those seasons. This year, Detroit has stopped using Abdullah altogether, as he’s only appeared in three games and made one rushing attempt. But for clubs in need of running back/returner help, Abdullah could make for a worthwhile add, especially given that he’s only due ~$413K for the remainder of the 2018 campaign.

So what teams could be interested in making a waiver claim on Abdullah? Let’s run through the options:

New England Patriots

The Patriots are always on the hunt for interesting players, but Abdullah may have made more sense for New England a few weeks ago when fellow running back Sony Michel initially went down with injury. James White has filled in admirably, but Abdullah could have given the Pats another option in their backfield. However, Michel is now likely to return for New England’s Sunday night contest against the Titans (Twitter link via Adam Schefter of ESPN.com), so there may not be room for another runner on the Patriots’ roster. Abdullah’s prowess on kick and punt returns would also be nullified in New England, as the Patriots already boast arguably the league’s best returner in Cordarrelle Patterson.

Philadelphia Eagles

After reportedly being in the hunt to acquire a running back via trade at the deadline, the Eagles instead opted to pursue wide receiver help by picking up pass-catcher Golden Tate from the Lions. But the Philadelphia roster could still use another runner after losing Jay Ajayi for the season, so Abdullah could be a candidate to land with the Eagles. If the Eagles did claim Abdullah, however, they’d likely be forced to waive promising undrafted free agent Josh Adams, something I’m not sure they’d consider doing in order to make room for Abdullah.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are all set at running back with James Conner, and if Le’Veon Bell returns before his deadline next week, Abdullah clearly won’t be in consideration for Pittsburgh. But the Steelers have dangerously little depth behind Conner, as the club has only journeyman Stevan Ridley and rookie Jaylen Samuels behind its workhorse. Abdullah could add another dimension to the Steelers’ backfield in the event Conner went down, and — in the more immediate future — give Pittsburgh a boost on kick returns, where they currently rank 31st in Football Outsiders’ special teams metrics.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While the Buccaneers are barely on the fringes of contention (just a six percent chance to earn a postseason berth, per FiveThirtyEight.com), they need to do something about their running game. Deploying a combination of Peyton Barber, Jacquizz Rodgers, and rookie Ronald Jones (who is now injured), Tampa Bay ranks 24th in rushing DVOA, 29th in yards per carry, and 30th in yards per game. Given the success of their Air Raid passing offense, the Buccaneers don’t necessarily need to be effective running the ball, but adding Abdullah couldn’t hurt.

Tennessee Titans

There’s no hiding the fact that Dion Lewis is no the Titans’ No. 1 running back. As Adam Levitan of Fantasy Labs pointed out on Twitter today, Lewis’ snap count has increased from 32 to 45 to 59 over the past three games, while Henry has seen his snap count dwindle from 12 to 24 to 14 over the same stretch. Chris Mortensen of ESPN even reported earlier this week that Tennessee attempted to trade Henry prior to last week’s deadline but couldn’t find a taker. It seems unlikely the Titans will simply cut Henry, but if they do, they’ll need another back on their roster, and Abdullah could fit the bill.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins don’t need anyone to usurp Adrian Peterson, but they could use another pass-catching back given that Chris Thompson just can’t seem to stay healthy. Thompson, who’s managed to play a full 16-games slate just once during his six-year career, has been dealing with rib and knee injuries all season, and missed Sunday’s contest against the Saints. If Washington doesn’t think it can rely on Thompson to stay on the field, Abdullah could make for an advisable addition.

So what do you think? Will one of these teams — or a club not listed here — claim Abdullah? Or will he pass through waivers and become a free agent? Vote below, and leave your thoughts in the comment section! (Link for app users).

Poll: Which Sub-.500 Team Has Best Chance To Make Playoffs?

November 3rd, 2018 at 9:45pm CST by Sam Robinson

With the trade deadline having passed, teams have a better idea what everyone’s optimal stretch-run lineups will look like. A handful of dominant teams have surfaced, and several second-tier contenders are present as well.

But what about possible late-blooming teams? Multiple squads picked by many to advance to the playoffs are under .500. Which teams will the second-tier contenders have to worry about in the second half?

The obvious place to start is the AFC South, where a once-0-3 team is in front. The Texans entered the season with the best Las Vegas playoff odds and are living up to the hype. They’re a major threat to become the first 0-3 team to make the playoffs since the 1998 Bills. The division’s other three teams have three wins, hovering behind the Chargers, Bengals and Ravens in the AFC wild-card race.

Jacksonville’s decision to retain and extend Blake Bortles is backfiring, but the team still offers one of the best defensive outlooks in the game. However, the defending division champs have lost four straight and still have the Texans, Steelers and Redskins on the schedule.

Indianapolis won two straight going into its bye, has a three-game homestand on tap, and one winning team remains on its schedule. Featuring Andrew Luck (23 TD passes, second in the NFL) and an improved front — headlined by the first guard to win an a rookie of the month award in Quenton Nelson — Indy’s offense ranks sixth in scoring (28.9 points per game). Tennessee’s only 3-4 but may be in more trouble, having lost three straight and sporting the No. 30 passing attack. Marcus Mariota‘s thrown just three touchdown passes this season; the Titans have games against the Patriots, Texans and Redskins left.

Shifting to the NFC South, can the Falcons overcome their litany of defensive injuries and crawl back into the race? At 3-4, Atlanta is one game out of the NFC’s second wild-card spot, and Matt Ryan is on pace to surpass 5,000 yards in a re-established aerial attack. But the Falcons’ defense sits 31st in DVOA, though Deion Jones is on the way back, and their ground game ranks 30th. Atlanta also has six road games remaining.

The Buccaneers may be headed toward a postseason house-cleaning, with Dirk Koetter (and probably Jason Licht) back on the hot seat and Jameis Winston benched. Can Fitzmagic and a deep pass-catcher arsenal save Tampa Bay or at least stave off another bleak second half?

In trading a first-round pick for Amari Cooper, the Cowboys certainly believe they’re a stealth contender. At 3-4 and behind both the Redskins and Eagles in the NFC East, the Cowboys defied conventional wisdom and gave up what could be a top-12 pick for an inconsistent wide receiver. While Dallas carries the No. 11 DVOA defense, its offense (25th) hasn’t clicked. That said, the team’s lost its past two road games — against division leaders Houston and Washington — by six combined points. If the Cowboys can’t pull this off, might it finally be the end of the line for Jason Garrett? Jerry Jones said he’s not considering an extension for the signed-through-2019 HC.

The Jets were not expected to make the playoffs, have lost two straight and still have two Patriots games left. More was expected of the Broncos, whose post-Super Bowl 50 trajectory represents a prime modern example of the quarterback position’s importance. Although they quietly are DVOA’s No. 7 team, the Broncos are 2-10 in Vance Joseph-coached road games and have five remaining games against winning teams. Those will come after the team made a seller’s trade in unloading Demaryius Thomas. The Lions, too, sold a key asset and appear to be playing for the future. However, they’re still only one game out of the NFC North lead.

So, who has the best chance of re-routing their season into a playoff bracket? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Did The Giants Do Enough Before The Deadline?

November 1st, 2018 at 4:51pm CST by Zachary Links

The Giants kicked off trade season with a bang by trading cornerback Eli Apple and defensive tackle Damon Harrison on back-to-back days last week. Many expected the Giants to continue their demolition on Tuesday, but that did not come to fruition. 

At 1-7, the Giants have no real hope of making the playoffs this year, so a complete fire sale would have been logical and largely accepted by the team’s passionate fanbase. There were real pieces to move, too, including cornerback Janoris Jenkins and safety Landon Collins.

Jenkins, who just celebrated his 30th birthday, drew the attention of the Chiefs this week. With two-and-a-half years to go on his five-year, $62.5MM deal, the Giants had an opportunity to add to their draft stockpile while dropping one of the highest-paying cornerback contracts in the NFL. If the Giants decide to cut Jenkins this offseason, they’ll save $7.75MM against the cap, but they’ll be left with nearly as much ($7MM) in dead money.

The decision to keep Collins is certainly understandable since he is just 24 years old. However, he’s in the final year of his rookie deal and figures to command serious offers on the open market. The Giants reportedly have concerns about how well Collins fits in their new defensive scheme, so it’s not a given that they’ll make a strong play to keep him. The Chiefs and Buccaneers were reportedly interested in Collins, but no team was willing to meet the Giants’ asking price of a 2019 second-rounder and a late-round pick in 2020. Rival GMs made offers, but no one ponied up more than a third-round choice.

The Giants had other vets to dangle, including defensive end Olivier Vernon and linebacker Alec Ogletree, but the Giants passed on making any additional deals on Tuesday. Was that a mistake by the Giants, or do you think they did enough in the way of midseason rebuilding? Click below (or here, for app users) to weigh in and sound off in the comment section:

Poll: Best Acquisition On Deadline Day?

October 31st, 2018 at 6:29pm CST by Dallas Robinson

In 2014, the year Pro Football Rumors was established, there were 23 NFL trades that involved veteran players (ie. deals that didn’t simply involve teams moving up and down the board on draft day). Just four years later, that number has more than doubled, as the league has seen 61 deals go down since the league year opened in March.

There are myriad reasons why the NFL is becoming a more trade-happy league, and Andrew Brandt of Sports Illustrated outlined several of them yesterday: younger general managers that are more comfortable making swaps; gobs of cap space; and the NFL’s decision to move the trade deadline back by two weeks. Whatever the explanation, it certainly makes the league more fun on deadline day.

Five trades occurred on Tuesday, with five contending clubs making what can only be described as win-now moves. Let’s take a look at each deal before deciding which team made the best acquisition at the deadline:

Texans acquired WR Demaryius Thomas and a 2019 seventh-round pick from the Broncos in exchange for a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2019 seventh-round pick.

  • Houston needed another pass-catcher after losing Will Fuller to a torn ACL, and while the 30-year-old Thomas isn’t exactly a perfect replacement for the speedy Fuller, he’ll give head coach Bill O’Brien and quarterback Deshaun Watson another option as they look to build on their five-game win streak. Thomas was the only player acquired on Tuesday who is signed beyond the 2018 season, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll stick with the Texans next year barring a contract restructure. He’s due a $14MM base salary in 2019, which seems untenable for a player whose production has dipped in recent campaigns.

Eagles acquired WR Golden Tate from the Lions in exchange for a 2019 third-round pick.

  • Nelson Agholor has been among the least productive wide receivers in the NFL this season, ranking next-to-last in Football Outsiders’ DYAR, which measures value over a replacement level player. Tate figures to usurp Agholor in the slot, and the Eagles could now play quite a bit more “11” personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers). To date, Philadelphia has deployed that personnel package on only 54% of plays, fourth-least in the league, per Warren Sharp. Another plus for the Eagles? They don’t have any cap space to use in 2019, and their projected lack of free agent activity almost certainly ensures they’ll reap a compensatory selection in 2020 if Tate leaves via the open market.

Ravens acquired RB Ty Montgomery from the Packers in exchange for a 2020 seventh-round pick.

  • The Montgomery trade is a horse of a different color, as the Packers likely felt forced to deal Montgomery after he allegedly went rogue by taking a kickoff out of the end zone (and subsequently fumbling) against the Rams on Sunday, depriving Aaron Rodgers a chance at a late game comeback. As Michael Silver of NFL.com detailed, Green Bay veterans were understandably flabbergasted by Montgomery’s decision, so his departure could be viewed as addition by subtraction. That doesn’t mean Montgomery can’t be effective for the Ravens, however, as he can contribute in the passing game, the running game, and on special teams.

Rams acquired LB/DE Dante Fowler from the Jaguars in exchange for a 2019 third-round pick and a 2020 fifth-round pick.

  • The Rams didn’t exactly need more help getting after opposing quarterbacks given that they’ve managed a league-high 39.2% pressure rate. Los Angeles is getting most of that pressure from the interior (see: Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh), but outside linebackers Samson Ebukam and Matt Longacre are also playing well despite not being household names. Fowler, the third overall pick in the 2015 draft, is in the midst of his best season to date, and he’ll now likely be asked to rush from a stand-up, outside ‘backer position instead of his usual 4-3 defensive end spot. Jacksonville had already declined Fowler’s 2019 fifth-year option, so the Rams don’t have to worry about another high salary hitting their books next year.

Redskins acquired S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix from the Packers in exchange for a 2019 fourth-round pick.

  • In terms of player-for-player upgrade, perhaps no team did better on Tuesday than the Redskins. Clinton-Dix, who ranks as Pro Football Focus‘ fifth-best safety in 2018, will be replacing Montae Nicholson, whom PFF grades a bottom-three defensive back league-wide. Washington already ranks ninth in pass defense DVOA, and the club only figures to improve after acquiring Clinton-Dix from Green Bay. Clinton-Dix is scheduled to become a free agent next spring, and while he almost certainly wouldn’t agree to an extension before hitting the open market, the Redskins do have the option of using the franchise tag to keep him around. Washington doesn’t have any other obvious franchise tender candidates, and the salary for safeties should only be worth ~$10MM.

So what do you think? Which team made the best acquisition on Tuesday? Vote below and leave your additional thoughts in the comments section! (Link for app users.)

Poll: Should Broncos Be Sellers?

October 27th, 2018 at 3:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Entering a crucial Week 8 game in Kansas City in which the Chiefs are 10-point favorites, the Broncos may be on the verge of a tough decision.

A loss to the Chiefs would drop them to 3-5 and behind in a pursuit of their first playoff berth since winning Super Bowl 50. What makes Denver’s case interesting is the number of veterans from that championship season the team still has in key roles who are attractive trade chips.

Beyond Von Miller, who should be considered untouchable, the Broncos’ defense relies on versatile All-Pro cornerback Chris Harris and longtime starters Derek Wolfe and Brandon Marshall. Denver’s starting wide receivers — Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders — are in their fifth season together. Bradley Roby and Shane Ray are both in contract years. Each has played key roles for the Broncos for years, Roby in particular.

Even if the Broncos play out the season trying to creep back into the playoff picture, how many of these players will be on the 2019 team? Denver does rank a surprising fifth in DVOA and has a softer second-half schedule. But even after a 45-10 win over the Cardinals, the Broncos are just 2-9 on the road during Vance Joseph‘s tenure. This makes a late-season run appear difficult.

Thomas is probably the most interesting case. He may be the second-best wideout in Broncos history, behind Rod Smith, and remains a useful contributor. But Sanders (603 receiving yards) is on pace for his best season since his Peyton Manning-aided 2014 slate, sliding Thomas (372 yards) into the No. 2 role Sanders played for years. Thomas also has a $17.5MM 2019 cap number, much higher than Sanders’ $12.9MM figure. This, and emerging second-rounder Courtland Sutton, point to Thomas almost certainly not being part of the 2019 Broncos.

But how much could Denver get for its high-priced, soon-to-be 31-year-old wideout? Unlike a Roby, Ray or Shaquil Barrett free agency departure, the Broncos couldn’t land a compensatory pick for Thomas. Trading him before Tuesday’s 3pm CT deadline would make sense if the Broncos don’t believe they can realistically compete this season.

On the other hand, Denver’s struggled for years to find a viable wideout behind Thomas and Sanders. Sutton (17.6 yards per catch) has provided that. Trading Thomas would weaken an offense that already doesn’t have much at tight end and depends on a lower-tier starting quarterback. Denver could also shop Thomas in the offseason, though the compensation likely would be minimal.

Teams are more interested in Sanders, but the 31-year-old wideout is a better bet to be on the 2019 team in the final season of a three-year, $33MM deal. Denver appears open to dealing Thomas.

Suitors are also inquiring about Harris, but that would gut a Broncos defense that doesn’t have the cornerback depth it possessed for years. Pro Football Focus has Harris again among its top-10 corners, and he has another season remaining on an affordable, five-year, $42.5MM deal. It’s possible Harris could join Miller as a defensive cornerstone into the 2020s, with Roby’s status beyond 2018 uncertain. That would probably be more valuable to the Broncos than the mid- or late-round draft capital they’d acquire in exchange for the 29-year-old corner.

A fifth-year starter, Marshall may be in his final games as a Bronco. Fourth-round rookie Josey Jewell could take over as a starter next season at a rate obviously much cheaper than Marshall’s $9MM 2019 cap number. Playing on a $8.5MM fifth-year option, Roby’s drawn interest, too. No substantial extension talks are known to have taken place. Ray’s high ankle sprain likely will keep him in Denver throughout his contract year.

With two games against the Chargers, and matchups against the Steelers and Bengals, still on the Broncos’ docket, should they be ready to deal non-essential cogs if they lose to the Chiefs? Or, does Denver’s DVOA position indicate a late-season turnaround is possible, making an all-hands-on-deck approach worthwhile?

Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Most Important Game Of Week 8?

October 25th, 2018 at 7:00pm CST by Dallas Robinson

We’re nearly at the halfway mark of the 2018 season, and Week 8 offers a number of intriguing matchups that could impact the playoff race. With so much on the line, which game is the most important?

For some context, we’ll use Brian Burke of ESPN’s Playoff Probability Leverage, which Burke tweets out weekly. In short, playoff probability leverage indicates the change in chance of making the playoffs based on the results of the selected game. For example, the Rams and Chiefs are so assured of earning a postseason appearance that this week’s contests have limited meaning for them (less than 5% playoff leverage). The Jets, Browns, Bills, Raiders, Giants, Cardinals, and 49ers will also face low playoff leverages because they have virtually no chance of making the postseason.

But for other clubs, Week 8 could mean everything. And by combining the playoff probability leverages of the two teams involved in a selected game, we can determine which contests will most determine the postseason entrants:

  • Seattle Seahawks (27%) at Detroit Lions (15%) = 42%
  • Miami Dolphins (18%) at Houston Texans (20%) = 38%
  • Baltimore Ravens (16%) at Carolina Panthers (21%) = 37%
  • New Orleans Saints (14%) at Minnesota Vikings (22%) = 36%
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12%) at Cincinnati Bengals (18%) = 30%
  • Philadelphia Eagles (17%) at Jacksonville Jaguars (11%) = 28%

Other Week 10 contests aren’t included here for various reasons. The Steelers have high postseason probability leverage (24%) against the Browns, but the contest is essentially meaningless on Cleveland’s end, as the Browns have little chance of earning a playoff berth. The Rams/Packers game, meanwhile, figures to be an exciting contest, but nearly all the leverage is with Green Bay (24%).

It’s also important to note that not all playoff probability leverages are created equally. For example, even if the Ravens — who face a 16% PPL — lose to the Panthers on Sunday, they’ll still have a greater than 65% chance of making the postseason. On the other hand, the Dolphins, while facing a similar PPL to the Ravens (18%), will have roughly a one-in-ten chance of earning a postseason berth if they fall to the Texans. If Miami wins, that number rises to about 30%.

So, what do you think? Are the numbers right — is Seahawks/Lions the most critical game of the weekend? Or does a contest farther down the playoff probability leverage spectrum, such as Saints/Vikings mean more? Vote below, and add your thoughts in the comments section!

Poll: Who Will Giants Trade Next?

October 24th, 2018 at 9:46pm CST by Sam Robinson

Sitting at 1-6 for a second straight season, the Giants unloaded two members of their starting defense — Eli Apple and Damon Harrison — and collected three draft choices. Are more moves on the way?

Nearly a week remains until the trade deadline. Dave Gettleman determined the Giants had a chance at a much better season than they did in Jerry Reese‘s final campaign and, instead of taking Eli Manning‘s successor at No. 2 overall, the new GM attempted to build for one last run around the 15th-year starter. With that having backfired, it will be tough for the Giants to win many more games due to the team having stripped away two key pieces.

But will they continue to make moves and weaken this year’s team? It appears they will. Word out of the Big Apple is the Giants are open to dealing anyone on their defense for the right price.

Veterans like Manning and Janoris Jenkins don’t look to factor into the next era of Giants football, and other prominent veterans may not, either. Trade buzz has surrounded Jenkins this week. He’s playing on a reworked deal that pushed some money onto future cap figures (both of his 2019 and ’20 cap hits are now $14.75MM) but is a proven cover man signed for 2 1/2 more seasons.

Gettleman brought in Alec Ogletree (a captain in his first season with the team) after Reese neglected the off-ball linebacker positions for years. He’s only 27 and could be a defensive centerpiece for future Giants teams. But he would draw interest, though maybe not too much due to a $10.5MM-per-year contract. Olivier Vernon missed this season’s first five games due to a hamstring injury. This and his $17MM-AAV contract may not put New York in position to recoup much in return. But the Giants did trade Jason Pierre-Paul, and Vernon, too, was brought in to play in a 4-3 defense.

What about Landon Collins? One of Reese’s best draft picks is in a contract year and could be a franchise tag candidate and could also be re-signed to anchor future Giants secondaries. Though, no notable extension talks are known to have taken place. Or, this fire sale may continue with homegrown young talent. That would naturally shift the conversation to Odell Beckham Jr.

Beckham is signed through the 2023 season on a wideout-record five-year, $90MM extension. He has brought more drama since a lower-maintenance offseason, prompting co-owner John Mara to express disappointment at the soon-to-be 26-year-old receiver’s recent comments, but remains an elite target in his prime. The Giants were asking for two first-round picks for Beckham when he was attached to his fifth-year option. What would they take now that the three-time Pro Bowler’s signed to a top-market contract?

A no-trade clause is built into the extension Manning signed in 2015. He said last year his intent remained to finish his career with the Giants and this week said he’s not thinking about a trade. There wouldn’t be many suitors, given Manning’s contract and performance level thus far this season, and the Tom Coughlin-led Jaguars are not believed to be interested.

Recent Reese draftees like Dalvin Tomlinson and Sterling Shepard have produced as multiyear starters and profile as pieces the Giants will work with going forward, but if the new regime moved them, they’d bring back some more draft capital for choices the current Giants regime can make.

So, who will be the next Giant dealt? Or has the franchise already made its moves? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.

Poll: Who Will Win AFC South?

October 20th, 2018 at 8:35pm CST by Sam Robinson

Although the AFC South has seen repeat champions this decade, the division’s post-Peyton Manning years have not produced a similar perpetual frontrunner. This season’s unfolding on a familiar course.

Going into Week 7, three AFC South teams — the Jaguars, Titans and Texans — are 3-3. The Colts probably have the division’s best quarterback, but they’re 1-5 and on a rebuilding track. This could be shaping up to be a complicated race as we enter the midseason stretch.

Jacksonville came into the season as the division’s favorite, but the past two games — when the Chiefs and Cowboys combined to outscore the Jaguars 70-21 — leave this division more in doubt than it looked entering October. With Blake Bortles‘ inconsistency continuing into his fifth season, the Jags continue to depend on their defense. But that unit’s not quite on the unassailable perch on which it hovered last season — when a group housing mostly the same personnel led the league in DVOA.

That metric still has this Jaguar defense sitting fifth, but will a merely good defense be enough to lift a Bortles-led offense that doesn’t have much in the way of weaponry? (Though, a Leonard Fournette–Carlos Hyde backfield may look formidable if Fournette can shake off his hamstring injury.) The Jags already lost at home to the Titans and now has the Texans coming to town in what will be a pivotal spot for both teams.

When I examined this division’s similar outlook around the midway point last season, Deshaun Watson was days away from the ACL tear that sank the Texans. He’s off his stratospheric pace from last year, which was to be expected, but has absorbed by far the most sacks (25) and hits (65) any quarterback’s sustained this season. Houston did not outfit its franchise centerpiece with a strong offensive line, and Watson doesn’t have much in the way of a running game, either.

The Texans will need to improve in these areas to be a legitimate AFC contender, but they have won three straight and again have the services of a healthy J.J. Watt, who is putting together a defensive player of the year case and leading a top-10 DVOA unit.

Tennessee’s probably trudging into Week 7 on the lowest note of this division’s contenders, having completed a historically futile effort in Baltimore. Marcus Mariota took 11 sacks, tied for the second-most in NFL history, despite his first-string line being fully available. The fourth-year quarterback has not built on the strong performance he delivered to help the Titans to an overtime win over the Eagles. He’s thrown two touchdown passes this season, is averaging only 158.3 passing yards per game and is 23rd in Total QBR.

The Titans have struggled to replace Delanie Walker‘s reliable presence, and their Dion Lewis–Derrick Henry tandem has sputtered (neither averages more than 3.3 yards per carry) thus far, putting Mariota in a tough spot Sunday in London and running the risk of the Titans falling below .500 after a 3-1 start.

Andrew Luck‘s return should be viewed as the top positive takeaway for the Colts, whose roster didn’t indicate they were especially interested in 2018 contention. Can they rebound and mount something of a challenge in a division without a current winning record, or are they stampeding toward another high draft choice?

It’s obviously still early in the season, but is one of these teams about to separate from the competition and become the kind of contender that can challenge the Patriots or Chiefs? The Jags already beat the Pats, but the latter has obviously proven far more as a perpetual AFC contender and will be treated as such despite the Week 2 result.

So, who has the best chance of putting together a run in the South? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your views in the comments section.

Choose Your 2019 Free Agent Pass Rusher

October 18th, 2018 at 6:51pm CST by Dallas Robinson

The 2019 free agent edge rushing class should thank Khalil Mack — by not caving in Oakland and eventually garnering a $23.5MM/year contract from the Bears, Mack reset the market for pass rushers. As Joel Corry of CBSSports.com recently noted, $20MM per season for star edge defenders is now the “new norm.” 2019 free agency will bring an excellent crop of available defensive ends/outside linebackers, and while the list of players on the open market will certainly change by next spring thanks to extensions and franchise tags, there should be plenty of talent to go around. If your team needs someone to get after the quarterback, 2019 is the time to attack.

Let’s take a look at the market as a whole, which I’ve sorted into a few different tiers:

Open your checkbook

Each of these players will be a legitimate candidate for the franchise tag in 2019, although the salary amounts would vary. Clark and Flowers would be tendered as defensive ends, which should net them one-year salaries of roughly $17.5MM. Clowney and Ford, however, would likely be tagged as linebackers thanks to the NFL’s archaic franchise system, which differentiates between defensive ends and outside ‘backers. The linebacker franchise tender is expected to be worth approximately $16.325MM, per Corry. Lawrence, meanwhile, would be on his second consecutive franchise tag, meaning his salary would increase by 20% to $20.572MM. The Cowboys star has indicated he won’t play under another tag, but unless he takes the Le’Veon Bell route, he won’t have much of a choice.

Ford, particularly, is incredibly intriguing: while he’s the oldest member of the group at age-27, he’s come out of nowhere to post the most productive campaign of his career. Per Evan McPhillips of Pro Football Focus, Ford currently ranks first in both total pressures and quarterback hits. Will a pass-rush needy club overlook Ford’s spotty track record in the hope that he’s a long-term answer on the edge? (Link for app users.)

Old, reliable

Graham and Wake should almost get their own category, as they’re (historically) far better than the other three players listed here. Graham has steadily improved throughout his career and currently grades as Pro Football Focus‘ No. 3 edge rusher, but he’ll be 31 years old when next season gets underway. Last time he was a free agent (entering his age-26 campaign), Graham only received a four-year deal with an annual value of $6.5MM. He’ll get more this time around thanks to his production and the rising salary cap, but he may not be able to break the bank. PFR’s Zach Links examined Graham’s case for a contract extension earlier this year.

Wake, too, presents an age concern, as he’s already 36 years old. That hasn’t stopped him from topping double-digit sacks in three of the past four seasons, however, and he tied for sixth in sacks during that time. Wake has been pretty healthy during his career save for an Achilles injury in 2015, but he’s currently sidelined after surgery for a meniscus trim. He’s close to returning to game action, per Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, and which point Wake will only further his free agent case. (Link for app users.)

Injured at the wrong time

Injury question marks have dogged Ansah in the past, but he’s already a lock to miss the most games of his career this season, as he hasn’t played since the Lions’ opener while dealing with a shoulder issue. Streaky is the perfect word to define Ansah, especially given that he’s capable of double-digit sack totals in any given year (14.5 in 2015, 12 in 2017) but also posts down seasons (just two sacks in 2016). Age is also working against Ziggy: he entered the league as an older prospect (24) in 2013, and he’ll now be hitting free agency in advance of his age-30 season. A one-year pact, for far less than the $17.143MM franchise tender amount he’s making this season, appears likely.

Something left in the tank?

Will all three of these players be in the NFL in 2019? Matthews certainly will be, but it may not be with the Packers, as at least one recent report indicated the Packers would not seek to re-sign Matthews if the season ended today. Suggs, meanwhile, also appears primed to return next season. In May, Suggs said he plans to spend additional seasons in a Ravens uniform, and he made the Pro Bowl as recently as 2017. Peppers is the true question mark, as he’s already 38 years old and underwent shoulder surgery over the offseason. If Peppers does come back in 2019, it’s hard to imagine him playing anywhere other than Carolina. (Link for app users.)

Take a chance on me

There are a number of intriguing options in this tier, but I want to focus on the two Smiths. Za’Darius Smith had a coming out party on Sunday against the Titans, posting five tackles, three sacks, and a forced fumble in Baltimore’s domination of Tennessee, and was subsequently named the AFC’s defensive player of the week. He’s also tied for eighth in the NFL with 10 quarterback hits, and he’s only played 258 defensive snaps. As Suggs inches close to retirement, Smith has a chance to become the next great Ravens pass rusher. But as Jeff Zrebiec of The Athletic notes, Baltimore has allowed other defenders — Paul Kruger, Pernell McPhee — to leave via free agency in the past, so there’s no guarantee Smith will be back in Baltimore.

Preston Smith is interesting simply because of his reliability. He’s started 37 consecutive games since becoming a full-time player in 2016, he’s played more snaps than anyone in this section aside from Za’Darius Smith. Given that other high-upside players such as Fowler and Lynch have dealt with off-field issues, while Fowler and Ray have been hampered by injuries, Smith’s day-in, day-out approach could entice a team to overpay. (Link for app users.)

The outlier

We won’t blame you if you’re not even sure who Hunt is. The 53rd overall selection in the 2013 draft, Hunt managed only 1.5 sacks over four disappointing seasons with the Bengals before joining the Colts in 2017. Last year was much of the same for the Estonia native, but this year, at the age of 31, Hunt has seemingly figured something out. He’s already posted four sacks on the season, and he’s also tied with the Vikings’ Danielle Hunter for most tackles for loss (9). As Justis Mosqueda of Optimum Scouting details below, Hunt is an all-new player:

If he continues this production for the rest of the season, what kind of contract is Hunt looking at? I’m dubious that most clubs would be willing to give a player with little-to-no track record, who’s entering his age-32 campaign, a multi-year deal. With more than half of the 2018 season left to go, Hunt could potentially fall back to his prior level of performance, but if he doesn’t, it’s possible he could command double-digits next spring.

Poll: Should The Browns Try To Trade Tyrod Taylor?

October 18th, 2018 at 9:32am CST by Zachary Links

On Thursday, Browns head coach Hue Jackson told reporters there have been no discussions about trading quarterback Tyrod Taylor before the Oct. 30 deadline. When pressed further, Jackson shrugged off the notion that Taylor would not finish the year in Cleveland. 

“I do [expect him to be with the Browns all season], until someone tells me something differently,” Jackson said. “He is our backup quarterback.”

For his part, Taylor admits that he’s frustrated with his No. 2 QB role, but he refuses to complain to management or demand a trade. It’s not hard to read between the lines and see that Taylor would prefer to be a starter elsewhere rather than Baker Mayfield‘s clipboard holder in Cleveland.

Taylor has just one year to go on his deal, which would make him a logical rental for another club. The Browns would also save a bundle by moving him. Taylor has already collected on his $6MM roster bonus, but a trade would allow them to escape the prorated portion of his $10MM base salary.

The trouble is, there may not be a robust market for Taylor’s services. The Dolphins will be without Ryan Tannehill for an unknown period of time, but they have every reason to stick with Brock Osweiler after last week’s OT victory over the Bears. The Bills, in theory, could use a QB while Josh Allen heals up from a UCL injury, but it’s hard to picture that reunion going down.

If the rest of the league would utilize Taylor as a strong backup quarterback rather than a starter, it’s hard to see the Browns getting much of a return. The Jets got a third-round pick for Teddy Bridgewater in August, but Bridgewater had a first-round pedigree and a much cheaper contract. Moving Taylor might not yield much in the way of draft compensation, and it would mean losing out on one of the more talented backups in the NFL.

With all of that in mind, do you think the Browns should trade Taylor before the deadline? Click below to cast your vote and back up your opinion in the comments. (Link for app users.)

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