HEADLINES

Offseason Outlook News & Rumors

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Chargers

March 3rd, 2015 at 5:06pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits*:

  1. Philip Rivers, QB: $17,416,668
  2. Eric Weddle, S: $10,100,000
  3. Antonio Gates, TE: $9,762,500
  4. Corey Liuget, DL: $6,969,000
  5. Donald Butler, ILB: $5,480,000
  6. Malcom Floyd, WR: $4,716,668
  7. Mike Scifres, P: $4,347,500
  8. Chad Rinehart, G: $4,250,000
  9. Donald Brown, RB: $4,083,333
  10. D.J. Fluker, T: $3,109,772

* King Dunlap‘s new contract will likely place him in the Chargers’ top 10, but exact cap figures aren’t yet known.

Notable coaching changes:

  • Hired 2014 Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan as linebackers coach.

Draft:

  • No. 17 overall pick
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Cowboys for Sean Lissemore.

Other:

Overview:

After starting the year at 5-1, many had the Chargers pegged as Super Bowl contenders. Unfortunately, things unraveled quickly after the injury bug bit Philip Rivers and much of their offensive line. A mid-season resurgence thrust them back into the playoff picture, but the Chargers wound up losing three of their four final games, ending their season on December 28th.Philip Rivers

The Chargers are ready to put their disappointing and frustrating 2014 behind them, but they’ll have to take care of a few holes if they want to go for the AFC West crown and more in 2015.

Key Free Agents:

Chargers GM Tom Telesco recently said that the Chargers are “a different team” when Ryan Mathews is healthy and on the field. Unfortunately, the 27-year-old (28 in May) spent half of 2014 on the sidelines. To date, 2013 represents Mathews’ only full 16-game season. In that campaign, Pro Football Focus (sub. req’d) rated Mathews as the 29th best halfback out of 55 qualified players with an overall grade of +1.6, marking him as just above average. The traditional stats have that year pegged as arguably his best season ever as he ran for over 1,200 yards off of averaged 4.4 yards per carry. I’d expect the Bolts to try and work something out with the former No. 12 overall pick, but with a hard limit on how far they’ll go based on his health, age, and overall production. Ronnie Brown is also scheduled to hit the open market and there should be some conversation between the two sides after the 33-year-old showed some flashes late in the 2014 season.

As Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required) show, 2013 was a pretty rough year for Brandon Flowers as he finished 85th out of 110 qualified corners. PFF rated Flowers as a top-seven corner in both 2011 and 2012, but the Chiefs could no longer justify his salary at that point and cut him, leading him to sign a one-year pillow contract with the Chargers. Now, his value is back up after a solid 2014 season that put him as the 15th best corner in the league, per PFF. Flowers is on the right side of 30 and playing good football once again, but he’d also be jumping in with a deep class of cornerbacks if he doesn’t re-sign. His payday could be capped by his competition, though teams like the Dolphins are already licking their chops at the prospect of landing him.

Less heralded cornerback Shareece Wright is also set to hit free agency. The former third-round choice started a career-high 14 games last season and finished third on the team with 54 tackles while breaking up six passes. He could be a good insurance policy for Jason Verrett and his surgically-repaired shoulder, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see another team offer him more money. Strong safety Marcus Gilchrist is in a similar position and another team could give him a chance to start.

Despite recording only 3.5 sacks in 2014, Dwight Freeney recorded 53 overall quarterback pressures, according to Pro Football Focus’ data (subscription required), and figures to receive a lot of calls come March 10th. The 35-year-old saw only four games of action in 2013 thanks to a quadriceps injury but saw time in all 16 games last season.

The Chargers kept left tackle King Dunlap from hitting the open market with a four-year, $28MM extension in late February. The 30-year-old graded out as the 23rd-best tackle in the league out of 84 qualifiers last season, per PFF, and while he’s not in the elite tier at his position, the Chargers did not want to have to tough things out in free agency where it’s a seller’s market for tackles.

Eddie Royal never saw a consistently high number of targets in the Chargers’ offense, but then again that’s pretty much the case for every receiver in San Diego. The soon-to-be 29-year-old had 62 catches for 778 yards and seven touchdowns in 2014, his best season statistically in some time.

Positions Of Need:

The Chargers failed to produce on the ground in 2014 and that’ll be one of their top needs looking ahead to 2015. Most don’t see Branden Oliver, last year’s fantasy darling, as a guy who would be able to take care of the full workload and their need for a back will only increase if Mathews is not retained. The free agent market, of course, has some intriguing options, headlined by 2014’s Offensive Player of the Year DeMarco Murray. Murray’s odometer was cranked up pretty high last season, but he’s one of the very best in the league when he’s on the field. Going a little bit cheaper, Saints tailback Mark Ingram is coming off a career year and could make a lot of sense. Adrian Peterson is restless (to put it mildly) in Minnesota and while everyone is connecting AD to Dallas, the cash-flush Chargers might do their due diligence on him. While we’re discussing big names, former USC star Reggie Bush is also available. In the draft, the Chargers could look into some of this year’s top tailbacks like Melvin Gordon and Tevin Coleman. Then again, the Chargers aren’t necessarily looking for a guy to carry the ball 20 times per game, so a mid-tier veteran free agent like Frank Gore could be a solid addition to the depth chart alongside Oliver, Donald Brown, and Danny Woodhead.

Without a solid offensive line in San Diego, it won’t matter much who is carrying the ball. The Bolts have multiple holes to fill after the offseason retirements of veterans Nick Hardwick and Jeromey Clary. Hardwick, 33, had served as San Diego’s starting center since being selected by the Chargers in the third round of the 2004 draft, the same year that the team added Rivers. Clary, meanwhile, was with the Chargers since 2006 and started 93 of the 103 games he played for the team during his career. They have work to do on the o-line, but thanks to their newly-minted extension with Dunlap, they won’t have to pick through the shallow pool of available left tackles.

After the retirement of Jarret Johnson, the Chargers will also seek out a pass rusher this offseason. Fortunately for them, the need might not be as dire since Freeney has decided to continue playing. Of course, he’s also scheduled to hit the open market so he isn’t a lock to return. If linebacker Jason Worilds hits the open market on March 10th as expected, he would represent a major boost to the Bolts’ front seven. The Steelers standout won’t come cheap, so someone like defensive lineman Darnell Dockett could be a less pricey option if the Cardinals don’t work out a new deal with him. In the draft, super athletic defensive end Arik Armstead could be available at No. 17, though there’s no guarantee of that if he continues to impress.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Rivers is entering final year of a deal that will pay him $15.75MM in base salary and count more than $17MM against the salary cap. Telesco said earlier this year he wants Rivers to be a Charger for life but at last check the two sides have yet to have discussions about restructuring his contract. For his part, Rivers says that the team’s potential relocation won’t affect his decision to stay on board one way or the other. Rivers has been willing to adjust his deal in the past to help accommodate the team. In the fall of 2013, he agreed to drop his $12MM base to $7MM while receiving a $5MM signing bonus. That adjustment gave the Bolts an additional $6.7MM in 2013 cap space. A new deal this time, of course, would probably involve additional years.

Corey Liuget is another key player who could leave after 2015. The durable defensive end is set to earn $6.9MM after the team triggered his fifth-year option, but another strong season could make him extra pricey on the open market. PFF pegged him as an above-average 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and the Chargers would probably like to keep the aggressive lineman beyond this upcoming season. An extension for Eric Weddle, who celebrated his 30th birthday in January, is also under consideration.

When Antonio Gates‘ time is through, the Bolts can turn to a very promising heir in Ladarius Green. At 6’6″ and 237 pounds, Green has displayed the agility of a wide receiver with all of the power you’d expect to see from a guy his size. Many thought that 2014 would be Green’s breakout year, but Gates decided to silence the naysayers and maintain his spot as one of the Chargers’ top ball-catchers once again. Still, Gates can only outlast Father Time for so long and San Diego won’t want to risk losing Green after the 2015 season. He’ll earn a base of just $660K this year but a new deal will cost quite a bit more.

The Chargers’ offensive line was hit hard by injuries and only one player appeared in every offensive snap: left guard Chad Rinehart. Thanks to playing more than 85% of the club’s snaps, Rinehart will now earn a base salary of $3.15MM in 2015, up from $2.25MM. The question now is whether they’ll allow him to play out his walk year. Rinehart, 28, never started more than 12 games in any of his five NFL seasons when he re-signed with the club last offseason, but he now has a full season as a starter under his belt. However, the advanced numbers (via Pro Football Focus) are not impressed by his performance last season, rating him as one of the worst guards in the NFL.

With a cap hit of $4MM+, the Chargers could sit down with “Dammit” Donald Brown to see if he’d be willing to give them a bit of a break. They won’t cut him, however, according to comments made by Telesco earlier this offseason.

Overall Outlook:

Given the Broncos’ myriad issues, the AFC West doesn’t look nearly as scary as it once did. The Chargers have some tuning up to do, sure, but with $30MM of cap space and one of the league’s best quarterbacks, there’s no reason to think that they can’t put themselves back on top in short order.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Falcons

March 2nd, 2015 at 8:42pm CST by Rob DiRe

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Matt Ryan, QB: $19,500,000
  2. Julio Jones, WR: $10,176,000
  3. Sam Baker, T: $7,300,000
  4. William Moore, S: $5,650,000
  5. Roddy White, WR: $5,587,500
  6. Paul Soliai, DT: $4,400,000
  7. Jon Asamoah, G: $4,268,750
  8. Joe Hawley, C: $4,000,000
  9. Tyson Jackson, DT: $3,850,000
  10. Jake Matthews, T: $3,733,977

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 8 overall pick
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Rams in deal for Alec Ogletree.

Other:

Overview:

The Falcons are drafting eighth overall despite being one victory over the Panthers away from playing the Ryan Lindley-led Cardinals at home in the first round of the playoffs. As enticing as that sounds, a quick exit to the Seahawks in the divisional round and the 25th overall pick may not have been worth the win in terms of long-term team building.

I’m not suggesting the Falcons tanked the end of the season — anyone who watched those games would not be surprised they didn’t make the playoffs. I am suggesting they are in a better position to take the next step toward the playoffs because of how their season ended. The Falcons have already taken the most important step towards returning to respectability, and hopefully for them their decisions from a coaching perspective pan out for the best.

Coaching Changes:

The Falcons’ defense has been a mess these past two seasons: they graded 26th in Pro Football Focus ratings in 2013 and 2014 (subscription required) and the traditional statistics place them even worse. In 2013, they finished 27th in both yards allowed per game and points allowed per game. This past year they were also 27th in points, as well as dead last in yards allowed.Dan Quinn

Mike Smith will be remembered mostly for the quick surge to the playoffs that started his tenure and the boneheaded decisions that ended it, but Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has been brought aboard to change all of that. Smith accomplished quite a bit as a defensive assistant with the Ravens from 1999-2002 and coordinator with the Jaguars from 2003-2007, but he was never able to match those accomplishments as Atlanta’s head coach. Quinn’s accomplishments as a coordinator dwarf Smith’s, as he has led the top scoring defense in the NFL for three consecutive years on his way to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (of course, he was one controversial play away from consecutive victories as well).

Quinn had a pool of talent available to him on the defensive side of the ball in Seattle and while he is a highly touted defensive mind, there must be some reservation over leaving Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner, and Michael Bennett, among others. The defense was predicated on having safeties that could cover the middle of the field, corners who can handle themselves up the sidelines, and of course a ferocious pass rush.

The Falcons have had an abysmal pass rush for a few years now, and do not have a safety on the roster worthy of even being compared to Thomas or Chancellor. What the Falcons do have is a top flight young corner in Desmond Trufant. Trufant was taken by the Falcons 22nd overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. The 24-year-old graded out as the seventh best cornerback in the NFL as a rookie according to Pro Football Focus, and improved to sixth best in 2014 (subscription).

Trufant is a great star, a player who could possibly match what Sherman did for Quinn, but the team will need to acquire top level talent around him. If not, Quinn will need to be extremely creative in order to put a respectable defense on the field over the next few seasons.

Another very interesting coaching change comes on the other side of the ball, where Kyle Shanahan will be in control of an offense that has been inconsistent under multiple coordinator’s during Smith’s tenure. Shanahan hopes to bring consistency to the unit. Shanahan has a reputation for producing high-level running games in the zone-blocking scheme made famous by his father in Denver.

Shanahan has more recently been known as a very adaptable offensive mind, bringing in the zone-read spread from Baylor during RGIII‘s rookie year in Washington, as well as creating a hugely successful first half of the 2014 campaign with career backup Brian Hoyer as his quarterback. Equally impressive for me was convincing fans and media members that Kirk Cousins was a plausible NFL starter in his time filling in for an injured Griffin.

Key Free Agents:

Kroy Biermann and Osi Umenyiora are the closest things the team has to established pass rushers, and both will be free agents this offseason. This isn’t Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, but the team doesn’t have a huge amount of depth behind them either. Jonathan Massaquoi stepped in and was effective, but he waived by the team and will not be returning in 2015. With both Bierman and Umenyiora unlikely to score huge deals elsewhere, they will at least be considered as options to stay with the team.

Matt Bryant has been a staple in Atlanta since he signed in 2009, and the team has already extending him to a three-year deal worth $8.5MM.

Quinn would like to have safeties with the talent of Thomas and Chancellor, but that just isn’t a realistic goal. For now, Dwight Lowery is better than any other option they have. A solid player, he lacks the explosiveness and athleticism of a dynamic playmaker, but he does a good job of making up for it was smart play and sound football. Losing Lowery would make the secondary worse immediately, but committing to him with starter-level guaranteed money could prevent the team from upgrading the position should the opportunity arise.

Steven Jackson will not be with the team in 2015, leaving Devonta Freeman as the only back on the roster. Jacquizz Rodgers and Antone Smith are both free agents, and both have minimal value on the open market. The Falcons could keep one or both players on very cheap, non-guaranteed contracts. Rodgers is the more experienced of the two, and brings value in the passing game. He has had little impact as a runner, but has shown flashes in the screen game and catching the ball out of the backfield. Neither is on pace to become a lead back in an offense, but Shanahan has found gems out of forgotten running backs before, as have his mentors Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak.

The most notable player the Falcons have to make a decision on is Sean Weatherspoon. Weatherspoon was a standout in 2011, his second year in the league, but struggled with injuries and poor performance throughout most of the rest of his tenure with the team. A first-round pick in 2010, he was a defensive captain in 2012, and represents a potential Pro Bowl level performer. Quinn has already went on record saying he hopes the team can retain Weatherspoon. Of course, with the recent struggles, he will also be a risky proposition.

Possible Cap Casualties:

The potential cap casualties that could be released this offseason should be troubling to the Falcons. The team doesn’t have many gigantic cap hits, but of their top ten highest at the end of the 2014 season, it would be easy to argue that seven of those players aren’t worth the money they will make in 2015. In fact, an argument could be made for an eighth player who isn’t worth the money, depending on your feelings about Matt Ryan.

The team has already parted ways with three of those top 10 cap hits. Justin Blalock has been cut by the team in a move that created $3.79MM in cap space this year. The Falcons also save $3.5MM in cap space by releasing Harry Douglas, and roughly an additional $3.75MM by releasing Steven Jackson.

While the Falcons have already done much of the heavy lifting in preparing for the offseason, they still have some options they could consider releasing.

Sam Baker has missed the past two seasons due to injury, and although he performed well in 2012, he had been underwhelming for the Falcons prior to that. He never excelled at left tackle, and while he might be a sturdy option, the emergence of last year’s first-round pick Jake Matthews should allow the team to move in from him. Matthews struggled as a rookie, but is the future at the position. If Baker can make the move to right tackle, it could buy him another year, especially since the team would need to designate him a post-June 1st cut in order to see any savings on the cap in 2015.

Paul Soliai has underperformed, but with so much cap space going into free agency, releasing him without creating additional savings doesn’t make a ton of sense. Designating him a post-June 1st cut would free up minimal space, but probably isn’t worth it considering he still has a chance to bounce back and provide real value on the interior of the defensive line.

William Moore is another player who the team would probably rather keep as opposed to releasing him to free up a mere $700,000 in cap room. Quinn needs safeties to come in and run a defense in the image of the one he ran in Seattle, and the team will likely explore upgrades in free agency. However, unless they can get a legitimate starter over Moore, the Falcons will likely keep him the rotation in 2015.

Roddy White likely has another year in Atlanta, especially after the team moved on from Douglas. However, as a veteran that has struggled with injuries opposite the emergence of Julio Jones‘ superstardom, it will be difficult to imagine his time with the team under that lucrative contract lasting much longer.

Positions Of Need:

The Falcons’ top priority will be finding a pass rusher. Atlanta only managed 22 sacks as a team in 2014, a whopping 32 less than the league leading Bills. They did so without a premier pass rusher, with no player on the defense achieving even five sacks. With all that cap space, the team will likely be looking at all options when it comes to pass rushers. If Justin Houston were to hit the market, the Falcons are among the few who could afford him despite the imperfect scheme fit. It would be unsurprising if the team even looked into Greg Hardy, who could be available at a discount if the division rival Panthers let him walk. Brandon Graham, Brian Orakpo, Jerry Hughes, and Jason Pierre-Paul could also be targets as high upside free agents. Also don’t count out the possibility of Pernell McPhee, who has the versatility desired to fill the type of role Michael Bennett and Chris Clemons have previously held in Quinn’s defenses.

The Falcons could also look to upgrade the offensive line. With Jake Matthews in the fold, I would not expect them to chase after a top tier left tackle, but a solid right tackle could be a great addition. If they don’t think they can find a significant upgrade in Byron Bell or King Dunlap, or a similar player, they could roll back with Gabe Carimi to compete at right tackle. Offensive guard would provide more opportunity for star power. As Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin look for new homes in 2015, the Falcons provide a tremendous need and an opportunity to get paid.

The team is happy with their wideouts, able to throw Jones and White outside the numbers and attack teams on the sidelines. What was very obviously missing from the offense in 2014 was Tony Gonzalez, who could work the middle of the field like no other player in NFL history. The biggest name on the market is Julius Thomas, an athletic receiving tight end who has been a downfield threat for the Broncos. Jordan Cameron is another big, athletic player, who missed most of 2014 but caught 80 passes the year prior. Neither player is a renowned blocker. A more logical fit would be Owen Daniels, who has a connection to Shanahan from their time with the Texans, and while he isn’t necessarily a downfield threat he would replace some of the veteran savvy fans remember from watching Gonzalez. Niles Paul has some familiarity with Shanahan from Washington, but he saw limited snaps at tight end during that time, so it is unclear how highly he is thought of. Jermaine Gresham is the best blocking tight end at the top of the market, and he although he has yet to unleash his potential as a pass catcher, he was drafted to be a tall downfield threat, a skill he never realized in Cincinnati.

Safety wouldn’t necessarily be the first position of need based on the roster, but it could be addressed as Atlanta could use an upgrade over William Moore and Dwight Lowery. Recently, PFR’s Luke Adams put together an overview of the free agent market for safeties, and to put it simply, it is not pretty. He lists 14 players in his top tier, but he and I both know that Devin McCourty is the only star in the group and he will likely be franchised by the Patriots. For his part, Quinn needs great safety play to replicate what he did in Seattle. Rahim Moore, Ron Parker, and Darian Stewart could be interesting options, and Antrel Rolle might provide a short term upgrade, depending on the learning curve it takes to pick up Quinn’s scheme.

If the Falcons want to address positions like safety, tight end, pass rusher, and offensive line with top flight free agents, they could probably get by at running back with spare parts. Shanahan has a history of getting the most out of previously unremarkable running backs. They have a few guys in the mix, between Rodgers, Freeman, and Smith who could turn their careers around in Shanahan’s zone blocking scheme. They could also target a back late in the draft, where Shanahan made stars out of sixth-round pick Alfred Morris and undrafted free agent Arian Foster, not to mention the production he got out of Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell before All-Pro center Alex Mack was lost for the season in Cleveland last year.

If the team does decide that it has the room to sign a higher profile player, Justin Forsett would likely be at the top of the list. He had tremendous success in Shanahan’s mentor Kubiak’s zone-blocking scheme in 2014, and should make an easy transition to the new offense. Mark Ingram would provide another big name signing, while Ryan Mathews, Stevan Ridley, and Roy Helu could be cheaper options that have some proven ability to be a lead back.

In addition to that long list of needs, adding a linebacker and a defensive tackle wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. The front office will have to prioritize where they spend their money, and will likely have to look to improve through the draft. It isn’t crazy to think that this team could have a quick turnaround with the likes of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones in the fold, but the reality is that it’ll take some time for the Falcons to get back towards the top of the league.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions:

The team will need to extend Julio Jones as soon as possible. Jones has been an otherworldly talent at wide receiver when healthy, but injury concerns going back to his time at Alabama will probably complicate his contract negotiations. Despite his injury issues, he finished with 104 catches and 1,593 yards last season, both good for third in the league despite playing about 200 less snaps and accumulating 22 less targets than Antonio Brown and Demaryius Thomas. The Falcons will almost certainly look to lock Jones up the long term, especially when considering the price they paid to land him in the 2011 draft.

The Falcons have already exercised the fifth-year option on his contract which will keep him with the team in 2015, and they will have a backup plan of franchising him at season’s end to secure him through 2016. This gives the Falcons leverage to work out an extension without the threat of their star receiver truly being able to test the open market. Through four seasons, there is no reason to think Jones will not become one of the highest-paid players at his position. If the Cowboys are able to come to terms with Dez Bryant, that would set the market and make it much easier to project a contract for Jones. I believe it would be unlikely to see either of those two players sign deals as magnanimous as the ones signed by Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson in terms of years and total value, but an average salary of between $10MM and $12MM per year would probably be the floor for Jones’ next deal.

Overall Outlook:

Atlanta was staving off a rebuild for the past few years under Smith, looking for band-aids and big names to put them over the top, and that plan nearly worked as they were a fourth-down pass breakup away from getting to the Super Bowl in 2012. However, they didn’t catch the breaks they needed these past two seasons, and with an abundance of cap space, they have the opportunity to legitimately build up their roster.

Looking at the needs of the roster and assuming Quinn would want to replicate the type of defense he employed in Seattle, it is tough to imagine the Falcons turning this around in only a year or two. The silver lining for the fan base in Atlanta is that unlike other teams that seem to be constantly rebuilding–like the Browns, Rams, and Texans– the Falcons know that if Matt Ryan continues to play at a high level, and with weapons like Jones to throw to, just returning to league average along the offensive line and on defense could catapult them right back into contention.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Chiefs

March 2nd, 2015 at 9:42am CST by Sam Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Alex Smith, QB: $15,600,000
  2. Dwayne Bowe, WR: $14,000,000
  3. Tamba Hali, OLB: $11,964,706
  4. Eric Berry, S: $8,357,700
  5. Jamaal Charles, RB: $7,970,835
  6. Sean Smith, CB: $7,750,000
  7. Eric Fisher, T: $6,051,954
  8. Mike DeVito, DL: $5,400,000
  9. Derrick Johnson, LB: $5,250,000
  10. Chase Daniel, QB: $4,800,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 18 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

After riding significant upgrades at the head coach and quarterback positions one of the most notable turnaround campaigns in NFL history, the Chiefs took a slight step back in 2014. The franchise that hasn’t made consecutive playoff appearances since the 1995 season saw key defensive injuries/illnesses and historically unproductive wide receiver play submarine its effort to return to the postseason. Although none of Kansas City’s wideouts scored a touchdown, making the Chiefs the first such team to accomplish that feat in 50 years, the Chiefs were in position to make the playoffs as late as the third quarter of their Week 17 win against the Chargers. Ultimately, the Chiefs winning nine games — including home triumphs over both Super Bowl participants — with their anemic WR corps, a spotty offensive line and the unavailability of Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito (both lost for the season in Week 1) and Eric Berry can be considered a success in the right light.

Largely behind the work of former two-time All-Pro Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs ranked 12th in offensive DVOA. Running behiDwayne Bowend an offensive line that saw just one player, free agent center Rodney Hudson, receive a positive grade from Pro Football Focus, Charles continued his pursuit of the all-time yards-per-carry mark. While not flirting with the 6.4 yards he averaged in 2010, Charles gained 5.0 per tote for the second straight year. But the elusive runner only received 206 carries, which were his fewest since becoming a full-time starter in 2010. That figure’s not surprising considering Andy Reid‘s penchant for short passes but one that probably needs to rise as the 28-year-old Charles’ prime winds down. Without a downfield complement, Smith helped unearth a much-needed contributor in Travis Kelce. Fresh off microfracture surgery, the second-year tight end enjoyed a breakout slate that helped the offense immensely. But the Chiefs’ offensive grit in snaring wins despite glaring issues can’t be something they count on; reinforcements are desperately needed to push Kansas City back into contention.

2014 continued a superstar ascent from outside linebacker Justin Houston, who ripped off a 22-sack season and booked himself either a sizable one-year renewal — which the Chiefs did Monday to delay his free agency — or an eventual megadeal that extends his stay in the Midwest for the rest of the decade. Apart from Houston, the Chiefs’ defense couldn’t counter the losses of three quality starters and slunk to 19th in defensive DVOA — 10 spots down from their 2013 mark. Josh Mauga and Allen Bailey both finished with negative Pro Football Focus grades as understudies-turned-starters, with Mauga doing an especially poor Johnson impression, charting as the league’s seventh-worst inside linebacker. Although Tamba Hali, a nine-year Chiefs edge-rusher, was still a strong player last year, he was clearly the complement to Houston and could be on his way out after the Chiefs used a first-round pick to grab Dee Ford to bolster arguably their strongest position. Hali’s cap situation ($11.9MM number with just $2.9MM in dead money, according to OverTheCap, if released) makes his position in Kansas City less certain than the less-reliable Bowe ($14MM number but $9MM in dead money). But the argument can be made that releasing both KC bastions (combined 17 years of Chiefs service) and using the savings to add younger, more cost-effective players at receiver and on the offensive front is the best move rather than continuing to have these performers clog the cap.

Key free agents:

A third-round pick from Georgia during the Scott Pioli regime, Houston fell in the draft due to drug-related concerns but turned in one of the best seasons in the 55-year history of the franchise in surpassing Derrick Thomas‘ team standard of 20 sacks set in 1990. The Chiefs’ predicament now is similar to the one they faced during Thomas’ heyday with two top-tier pass-rushers due high prices. The Carl Peterson-managed Chiefs opted to do what GM John Dorsey‘s Chiefs likely will: keep the A-side rusher. Peterson allowed Neil Smith to depart as a free agent in 1997, breaking up the most notorious pass-rush tandem in team history. The Houston-Hali duo isn’t quite on that level since it’s only had three full seasons together, but the overall talent is similar. Hali accrued seasons of 14 1/2 and 12 1/2 sacks in 2010 and 2011, respectively, before becoming a full-time tandem with Houston — the Thomas in this scenario. He will take priority over Hali, who is 31. Hali also never accumulated three straight seasons with 10+ sacks as Houston’s done in his three years as a full-time starter.

To keep Houston long-term, though, the Chiefs will have to pay him more than any outside linebacker. Clay Matthews‘ $13MM-per-year deal is the standard right now, and Hali’s $11.5MM is second in the league, according to OverTheCap. Houston and Von Miller are likely to raise that ceiling as 26-year-old pass-rushers.

Houston’s franchise tag will cost Kansas City about $13.1MM this year. There will be more players axed in the near future to make this work, and the chances Hudson stays in KC don’t make financial sense. Like Houston, Hudson came from the 2011 draft, but the second-round center took a bit longer to blossom. After sustaining a broken leg just three games into his second season, Hudson bounced back just as the Chiefs did and was a mid-level center in 2013. But last season, Hudson shined by ranking as PFF’s third-best snapper (subscription required) as an above-average run- and pass-blocker despite the injuries and ineptitude flanking him. But as the best available center, Hudson will see his price tag reside outside of the Chiefs’ payable range — likely in the $6MM-$8MM per-year strata. This will be a swift blow to an already-deficient offensive line.

The Chiefs’ No. 3 free agent is probably Ron Parker, who showcased versatility in playing nearly three quarters of the season at free safety. That may lead him to an adequate payday elsewhere. Cut eight times by three different teams, Parker spent two seasons as a nomadic corner and his third as a backup in Kansas City. Parker began his fourth season as a starting corner after beating out Marcus Cooper in training camp but became a key utility man once Berry went down with an ankle injury two months before receiving a diagnosis of Hodgkin’s lymphoma. After making 18 career tackles — all in 2013 — Parker notched 84 as a full-timer. Even though PFF didn’t think too highly of his run-defense skills (subscription required), Parker’s ability to vacillate between roles and be a productive cover man will help drive his price up. Like Hudson, Parker will probably find another team willing to pay more.

A veteran who started for four straight years on zone- and man-based fronts with the Broncos, Ryan Harris stepped in after being relegated to backup duty the past two seasons. He was probably the Chiefs’ second-best lineman despite being thrust into the lineup when third-year starter Jeff Allen joined the season-ending injury brigade in Week 1. Entering his age-30 season, Harris could be seen as a second-tier option for teams in need of a right tackle — a position Harris has played almost exclusively in his eight-year career. The Chiefs may opt to bring him back if his price tag is low enough.

Positions of need:

Reid managed to steer the Eagles to three straight NFC championship games with James Thrash serving as the de facto No. 1 receiver. The early-2000s Eagles proved that a No. 1 wideout isn’t required for sustained success; starters Thrash and Todd Pinkston combined for just three TDs in 2003. That sort of balance showed some in the Chiefs’ passing game last season with the usage of several wideouts with none standing out much in a west coast offense. But the Chiefs rode this workmanlike formula beyond its limits. With an already-cautious passer having no standout threat to beat defenses deep, the offense’s margin for error was slim, and that lack of diversity showed down the stretch. The first team since the 1964 Giants not to have a receiver score serves as an ignominious attachment that will likely stay with the franchise for a while, considering the era adjustments (just two receivers accrued 1,000+ yards in 1964 compared to 23 last season). And it will result in an offseason infusion, through free agency and the draft.

Without their second-round pick in each of Reid’s drafts due to the Smith trade, the Chiefs bypassed college wideout help in both. Last year in what turned out to be a reservoir of receiving help, the Chiefs selected Ford and cornerback Phillip Gaines in the first and third rounds, respectively. Out of necessity, they’ll have to take one this year. But the franchise hasn’t done well in tabbing receivers in the draft or free agency throughout the past three regimes. Since taking Bowe at No. 23 in 2007, the Chiefs selected six wideouts — two in the first two rounds — and just one managed to stick in their rotation: Dexter McCluster. This left a void alongside Bowe for years with a revolving door of sub-par No. 2 receivers signed as free agents, from Chris Chambers to Steve Breaston to Donnie Avery, creating the need for the Chiefs to overpay Bowe in 2013 to ensure some semblance of production outside. Now, they face a future that may not include any proven receivers with a tight cap.

The Jeremy Maclin-to-KC link makes sense due to familiarity, but not much financially. With Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant off the market via franchise tag, Maclin and Randall Cobb, should the Eagles and Packers not tag them, will battle for top billing. The Chiefs do not have the resources to go after him and are not typically big spenders or a sought-after destination. Players like Cecil Shorts, Eddie Royal, or even Kenny Britt make more sense, Royal in particular with his flashes as a catch-and-run threat. Shorts with a quarterback upgrade would help, but should either Cobb or Maclin go off the market via tag or long-term deal, Britt’s price tag may exceed buy-low territory. But much like the offensive line losing Hudson, imagining this current corps sans-Bowe is ugly, with undrafted free agent Albert Wilson as the next-best guy. While Amari Cooper, Kevin White and Devante Parker are probably gone by the top KC picks at No. 18, Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong, Michigan’s Devin Funchess or Dorial Green-Beckham, who would be a risky boom-or-bust pick after his Missouri exit, will likely be available.

With Allen returning and Fisher showing scant promise as a former No. 1 overall selection, the Chiefs’ primary focus up front will be on the interior, where they started one of the worst guard pairings in the league. Zach Fulton struggled as a rookie but should have a chance to compete at right guard again, however, free agent Mike McGlynn will not be back at his left guard post. PFF takes no pleasure in watching McGlynn work. The 29-year-old, who manned left guard after signing a one-year deal in Kansas City in August due to Donald Stephenson‘s suspension, graded as the site’s worst guard for the second time in three years (subscription required). Fisher’s improvement upon switching from right to left tackle wasn’t anything substantial, and this will mark a pivotal season for the scrutinized protector. While not overly talented, Allen at least gives the Chiefs versatility in how they approach the offseason with experience at guard (his first two seasons) and tackle (last year pre-injury).

The Chiefs could take LSU tackle La’el Collins and slide Allen back to guard to maximize the value of their No. 18 pick should this be their preferred option instead of receiver. Inside, Brian De La Puente, who’s played at both center and guard, would be a much cheaper option after serving as a backup with the Bears last year. If the Chiefs view this as a must-upgrade area that is too critical to count on a second-day draft pick to fix, Clint Boling would be a reasonable target at guard. Although getting 2012 draftees Allen and Stephenson back full-time will buoy this operation, Kansas City will address the line through both of the primary player-procurement avenues this offseason.

Berry’s unfortunate diagnosis keeps the secondary in flux. The former first-round pick has one year remaining on the massive rookie contract he signed in the last year of the old CBA, but his career may be over. A landing on the non-football injury list this year could save the Chiefs $5.5MM, according to CBSSports.com’s Joel Corry, and would go over better than simply releasing the popular safety. Complement Husain Abdullah played well in spots in his first season as a starter, and he’ll be counted on to provide more substance with Berry’s future in doubt. Parker’s departure would mean a void here, and considering the Chiefs’ bigger issues up front and out wide, they’re in no position to splurge on a safety. Undrafted free agents Daniel Sorensen and Kelcie McCray are the in-house options, an area from which Abdullah emerged last offseason. The Chiefs need a few of these stories next season since they’ll be unable to plug all of these holes from outside the organization. On his third team in three seasons, McCray was the second-best special-teamer in the NFL last season, per PFF.

DeVito may join Hali and Bowe on the open market as the Chiefs attempt to fix their biggest issues. Despite a strong debut campaign in Kansas City in 2013, DeVito tore his Achilles in Week 1 and is entering his age-31 season. Kansas City can save $4MM by cutting the veteran, and he’s reportedly comfortable with betting on himself elsewhere as opposed to slashing his salary. After spending a first-round pick on Poe and signing Bailey to a $25MM extension last year, the Chiefs could turn to under-the-radar free agent signee Vance Walker to fill DeVito’s spot. A former defensive tackle, Walker showed promise as the season waned as a 3-4 end. Of the Chiefs’ top eight salaries, only four players — Alex Smith, Charles, Sean Smith and Fisher — are locks to return.

Extension Candidates:

One of the Chiefs’ non-issue spots comes thanks to Pioli’s final first-round pick, Poe — the leader in defensive tackle snaps the past two years. Poe finished with a career-high six sacks last season and booked a second straight Pro Bowl trip. The agile 346-pounder has morphed into one of the better 3-4 noses in the game, and as a former first-rounder, Poe’s fifth-year option must be picked up to keep him off the free agent market in 2016. The Chiefs have until May 3 to do so. It would be wise to exercise this with Poe’s strength/agility combination, which resulted in the Conference USA product’s selection at No. 11 overall in 2012, not found in many at his position. Should the Chiefs pick up this option, Poe would earn a 2016 salary that averages the wages of the third- to 25th-highest-paid DTs — approximately $5.7MM based on the current contract values at the position. That figure more than doubles Poe’s $2.8MM 2015 salary, one that didn’t need to be factored into this unique mathematical equation.

Poe’s issue is more pressing due to the deadline residing two months from now, but Sean Smith emerged from the doghouse last season to become the top defensive back on the league’s second-best pass defense. Cited for DUI last summer, Smith worked behind Parker and Cooper at corner during training camp. But the 2013 free agent acquisition shook off that issue and enjoyed his finest season, finishing as PFF’s fifth-best corner. The analytics site also graded the rangy corner as the Chiefs’ second-best defender behind Houston. Smith signed a reasonable three-year deal that gives him $5.5MM per season, but he will receive a third contract before he’s 30. The Chiefs do not have another No. 1 corner option at present, as Cooper regressed and Gaines doesn’t have enough of a sample size yet. They do have a lot of prior commitments, but nothing significant beyond this year in the secondary. KC has more than $69MM (near the league’s middle) of 2016 cap space with players Hali, Berry and Johnson off the books. Since Smith played at a level above where he’s been during most of his career, the Chiefs probably need to see if he can come close to replicating his standout slate before determining an offer value.

Overall outlook:

Alex Smith proved in 2011 he can take a team to the precipice, but he needs plenty of help. Reid’s proven he can extract above-average play from a quarterback once labeled a bust. However, the Chiefs do not have the ancillary parts to complete this equation. The black hole at wideout cannot exist if the Chiefs want Smith to take them back to the playoffs, and the offensive front needs help to go along with improvements from thus-far-underwhelming holdovers. The coaching staff’s helped guide this team to back-to-back explosive starts and infused some stability into what was a fluid, tense situation. But more talent will be required to keep the Chiefs in contention.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Cardinals

March 1st, 2015 at 5:22pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Patrick Peterson, CB: $14,791,200
  2. Calais Campbell, DL: $14,750,000
  3. Carson Palmer, QB: $14,500,000
  4. Larry Fitzgerald, WR: $10,850,000
  5. Jared Veldheer, T: $8,500,000
  6. Daryl Washington, ILB: $6,500,000
  7. Jerraud Powers, CB: $5,350,000
  8. Lyle Sendlein, C: $4,275,000
  9. Jonathan Cooper, G: $3,967,909
  10. Drew Stanton, QB: $3,866,668

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 24 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

For the second straight season, Bruce Arians and the Cardinals were surprise contenders, but unlike the 2013 season, when Arizona won 10 games only to finish outside the playoff picture, the Cardinals managed 11 wins, earning a posLarry Fitzgeraldtseason berth via a wild card spot. Arians won Coach of the Year (for the second time in three years), and both he and general manager Steve Keim inked contract extensions that will keep the pair in in Phoenix through 2019.

Of course, Arizona didn’t win that aforementioned playoff game, losing to the Panthers largely due to the absence of a viable quarterback. Just two days after signing a three-year extension, Carson Palmer tore his ACL, leaving backup Drew Stanton to take over in the middle of Week 10. After Stanton then went down in Week 15, journeyman Ryan Lindley was forced to take over, and Arizona never recovered.

The Cardinals thrived on the other side of the ball, where despite numerous injuries and a yearlong suspension of linebacker Daryl Washington, the defense finished seventh in DVOA under coordinator Todd Bowles, who has since taken a head coaching position with the Jets.

Key Free Agents

Most of Arizona’s top free agents reside on defense, where Keim has made a habit of adding low-cost veterans to supplement a talented core. One such addition was cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who signed a one-year, $4MM pact with Arizona after being released by the Jets. The 30-year-old played more than 1,000 snaps in the desert in 2014, and he looks to be line for a multi-year deal. Keim indicated that the club would like to-resign Cromartie, but allowed that he’s likely to hit free agency. A reunion with Bowles and the Jets is certainly on the table, especially if New York loses out on Darrelle Revis.

At 27, Dan Williams will hit free agency at a younger age than Cromartie, and he’s coming off a better season, having finished No. 14 among 81 qualified defensive tackles per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Williams is part of a loaded interior defensive line class, which also boasts Ndamukong Suh, Terrance Knighton, and Nick Fairley, among others. But aside from Knighton, who’s spent his career in a 4-3 defense, and B.J. Raji, who seems likely to return to the Packers, Williams is the only true nose tackle available on the open market. He should find many offers once free agency begins, and it’s possible he’ll price himself out of Arizona’s range.

Tommy Kelly is seven years older than Williams, but his 2014 production showed no hint of an advanced age. After being released by the Patriots at cutdowns, Kelly signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals that netted him less than $1MM. The veteran defensive lineman ended up playing more than 700 snaps, and performed well. But given his age, he shouldn’t command too much of a market, meaning Arizona could have a chance to bring him back.

Two linebackers — Sam Acho and John Abraham — hit free agency at very different points in their respective careers. The 27-year-old Acho played nearly 500 snaps and held up well, especially against the run, and could be a nice find for a LB-needy club in free agency; the link between he and Bowles is obvious, but Acho would make sense for the Jets. Abraham, meanwhile, was placed on injured reserve in September after doctors told him to sit out a year following a concussion. He’ll be 37 in May, and it appears as though retirement is the best option for him given his head injuries.

On offense, the Cardinals have just one pending free agent — guard Paul Fanaika — who played more than 400 snaps. He was underwhelming in 2014, placing No. 71 among 78 guard qualifiers per PFF. The free agent guard class recently saw some newcomers, as Todd Herremans, Justin Blalock, and Charlie Johnson were all released in recent days, so Arizona can probably find an upgrade if they’d like. It’s probably time to give 2013 first-round pick Jonathan Cooper a chance to start, so Fanaika shouldn’t return regardless.

Tight end Rob Housler saw limited duty as the backup to John Carlson, and wasn’t overly effective when he did play. The Cardinals spent a second-rounder on Troy Niklas in 2014, so I’d expect them to bid farewell to Housler, especially given they’ve been linked to free agent James Casey.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Cardinals have already been among the most active teams in advance of the new league year, releasing both Darnell Dockett and Ted Ginn Jr., and agreeing to a new deal with Larry Fitzgerald that will keep the veteran receiver in Arizona for the next two years. Still, the club has only about $14.3MM in cap space, so further moves could be coming.

Center Lyle Sendlein was possibly the worst player on the Cardinals’ offense, as he finished the year with a -31.3 PFF grade. Soon to be 31, Sendlein is scheduled to count $4.275MM in 2015, the final year of his deal. Releasing Sendlein would save Arizona $3.15MM, and although the free agent center market isn’t strong, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the team seek out an upgrade on the open market or via the draft.

Stanton could also be on the chopping block, as he’s due to count more than $3.8MM next season — Arizona would save $3.2MM by cutting him. But given the uncertainty regarding Palmer and his recovery, and the team’s utter lack of QB options elsewhere on the roster, Stanton will probably be safe.

Carlson, entering the final season of a two-year contract, was especially ineffective in 2014, struggling in nearly every aspect of the game — he was PFF’s third-worst TE, and his run-blocking was particularly sub-par. The Cardinals could clear nearly his entire cap figure by releasing him, and given their cap situation, having another $1.6MM to work with could be appetizing.

Positions Of Need

Without question, the Cardinals are a team set up to win now. With a 36-year-old quarterback, and an aging receiver locked in for two seasons, Arizona has a short window to remain a contender, so free agency decisions will need to focus on the short-term. Keim & Co. have done a wonderful job with under-the-radar signings in the past, and with less than $15MM to work with, the club will have to hope it can do the same again.

Offensive line should be the key area of concern heading into the new league year. Arizona added left tackle Jared Veldheer on a five-year deal last offseason, and he was certainly a stabilizing presence on the blind side. However, he was the only effective player along the Cards’ front five, as every other position was filled by a below-average lineman. If Sendlein isn’t retained, center could a priority, but as mentioned, there aren’t a ton of options at the position. Instead, the Cardinals could focus on guard — one spot could be handed to Cooper, with the other being filled by a free agent. The likes of Mike Iupati and Orlando Franklin are too expensive, but someone like Blalock could be a nice addition on a short-term deal.

At running back, Andre Ellington is a talented receiving option, but he might not be cut out to be a featured back. Luckily, RB is a position flush with free agent possibilities. If the Cardinals can’t land a big name like DeMarco Murray or (if he’s released/traded) Adrian Peterson, they can look at some lower-tier options, instead. Ryan Mathews would make a solid pairing with Ellington, although both share injury concerns. Mark Ingram could make sense for Arizona, or the club could take a chance on Stevan Ridley on a one-year, “prove-it” deal. In the draft, the Cardinals could look at either Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon in the first round, or wait until later rounds to find a capable back.

If Cromartie leaves via free agency, the Cardinals could also have a hole to fill at CB. If the club wants to add another veteran to team with Patrick Peterson, someone like Chris Culliver or Brandon Flowers could be an option (although the latter might be a tad too expensive). Arizona could choose to invest in a younger player such as Davon House or Buster Skrine, but I’d guess that they’ll take the same approach they did with Cromartie, and wait for a veteran to fall into their lap. That could be Flowers if his market fails to develop, but 32-year-old Tramon Williams seems like the ideal target for the win-now Cardinals.

That strategy — waiting out the market — is how I expect Arizona to approach free agency as whole. The club has a history of stretching a dollar, especially on defense, and though Bowles is no longer around to develop talent, the Cardinals simply don’t have the cap space to target top-tier free agents. Adding complementary players to fill out an already strong core seems like the best avenue for Arizona.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The Cardinals already made a move to lower Fitzgerald’s 2015 cap hit, and they could do the same with other players in the hopes of clearing out cap space. Palmer, for example, has a $9.5MM roster bonus due in March which could be converted into a signing bonus, lowering the QB’s cap charge. Calais Campbell and Veldheer could be candidates for a similar restructuring.

Entering the final year of his rookie deal, Michael Floyd is a candidate to have his fifth-year option picked up. The 25-year-old is coming off a down year in which he caught just 47 passes for 841 yards, but he finished with over 1,000 yards in 2013. He’s always shown flashes of talent, and given that Fitzgerald won’t be around for the long haul, I’d expect the Cardinals to exercise the option.

Washington’s contract status is unclear — some of his contract guarantees probably will void due to his suspension, but it’s hard to speculate what the Cardinals might do with him given that we don’t know the specifics of his deal. Speaking at the combine, Arians said he doesn’t “even think about” Washington. We’ll probably see some sort of resolution with Washington in the near future.

Overall Outlook

The Cardinals could be viewed as a litmus test used to separate optimists from pessimists. The glass half-full perspective: Arizona has won 21 games during the past two years, has a solid head coach and front office in place, and has a record of succeeding in player acquisition. Glass half-empty? The Cardinals are counting on an aging quarterback coming off a second torn ACL, have limited cap space, reside in a tough division, and lost perhaps their best tactician (Bowles) to another job. The 2015 offseason will go long way in determining how that pendulum swings.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco 49ers

February 28th, 2015 at 9:07pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Colin Kaepernick, QB: $15,265,753
  2. Aldon Smith, OLB: $9,754,000
  3. Patrick Willis, ILB: $8,268,000
  4. NaVorro Bowman, ILB: $7,654,000
  5. Ahmad Brooks, OLB: $7,055,000
  6. Vernon Davis, TE: $6,967,920
  7. Anquan Boldin, WR: $6,909,000
  8. Justin Smith, DE: $6,436,668
  9. Joe Staley, T: $6,400,000
  10. Stevie Johnson, WR: $6,025,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 15 overall pick
  • Acquired fourth-round pick from Broncos in deal for Cody Latimer.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Colts in deal for Cam Johnson.
  • Owe fourth-round pick to Bills in deal for Stevie Johnson.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to Dolphins for Jonathan Martin.

Other:

Overview:

The 2014 season was a massive letdown for the 49ers, whose recent stretch near the top of the NFL standings surprisingly came to a halt. San Francisco was expected to contend last year after a three-year stretch from 2011-13 that included a combined 36-11-1 regular season record, three straight NFC championship games, and a Super Bowl appearance. Instead, thanks primarily to an ineffectual offense, the 49ers finished an uninspiring 8-8 and missed the postseason for the first time since 2010. That spurred the conclusion of a coaching era and, as the offseason progresses, will surely prompt noteworthy roster modifications.

Coaching Changes:

The 49ers were mired in an eight-year playoff drought when they named Jim Harbaugh their head coach in 2011. The team went an embarrassing 46-82 USATSI_8331329_168380616_lowresand mustered just one .500 season during that time frame. Harbaugh’s arrival brought dramatic improvement in the on-field product, as he helped guide the Niners to a tremendous 44-19-1 regular-season mark and three playoff berths. However, his relationship with CEO Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke deteriorated over time and became particularly discordant in 2014. That culminated in December with the end of the coach’s four-year stint in the Bay Area.

After interviewing several outside candidates, the Niners hired from within and chose longtime assistant Jim Tomsula to succeed Harbaugh. The 46-year-old Tomsula had run the 49ers’ defensive line since 2007 and was their interim head coach for one game back in 2010 (a 38-7 win over the Cardinals).

Tomsula stayed in the organization to replace Harbaugh’s departed coordinators, Greg Roman (offense) and Vic Fangio (defense), with Geep Chryst and Eric Mangini.

Chryst, San Francisco’s quarterbacks coach the past four years, has previous experience as a coordinator – he oversaw the Chargers’ offense from 1999-2000. Although Mangini was an offensive consultant with the 49ers in 2013 and their tight ends coach last season, most of his coaching career has been spent on defensive staffs.

Key Free Agents:

The start of the free agent period on March 10 could bring about the exits of three players who have long been 49ers offensive pillars — running back Frank Gore, left guard Mike Iupati and wide receiver Michael Crabtree.

Gore, the longest-tenured member of the trio, has spent all 10 of his pro seasons in San Francisco. Even at 31, he finished last year ranked ninth in the league in rushing (1,106 yards) on a respectable per-carry average of 4.3. Baalke has indicated that the 49ers want Gore back for his age-32 season. “I talked to him the other day on the phone and we’re going to do what we can to get him back as a 49er,” Baalke said earlier this month, according to the 49ers’ official website. Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com has reported that Gore, who made $6.45MM last season, is seeking $4MM per annum and that people around the league believe San Francisco is the likeliest team to meet his asking price.

Unfortunately for the 49ers, chances are they’ll have a harder time retaining Iupati. The three-time Pro Bowler is primed to become one of the NFL’s top-paid guards this offseason, and, with little cap space to work with, the 49ers seemingly aren’t in the right position to outbid the market for the 27-year-old’s services.

Then there’s Crabtree, the only one of the group who is coming off a subpar season (698 yards, 10.3 YPC). Tomsula recently said he would “absolutely” like Crabtree back, but both the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrows and Bleacher Report’s Jason Cole (video link) have reported the six-year veteran will probably end up elsewhere.

As is the case on offense, the 49ers’ defense also has important pieces scheduled to hit free agency. Those defenders happen to be both of the Niners’ starting cornerbacks from last season, Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox. The pair excelled in 2014, combining for nine interceptions and ranking well above average in Pro Football Focus’ grading system (subscription required) — Culliver was 14th and Cox 35th out of 108 qualifying corners. San Francisco is going to have difficulty keeping both, per Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com, and the one who’s expected to cost less (Cox) has a better chance of returning.

Positions Of Need:

The 49ers’ offense was the main culprit behind their woes last season, as mentioned earlier. The unit ran the ball effectively, but averaged a meager 19.1 points per game (25th in the league) and its Colin Kaepernick-led passing attack finished 30th in yardage and 22nd in Football Outsiders’ rankings. To Kaepernick’s credit, he greatly aided San Francisco’s ground game with 639 yards, second only to the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson among quarterbacks. The four-year veteran was merely middle of the pack in most relevant passing statistics, though.

In order for Kaepernick to realize his vast potential, the 49ers are going to have to surround him with more weapons. It starts at receiver, where Baalke has already acknowledged that the 49ers are seeking downfield threats. Further, the 49ers’ receivers coaches were among the few members of their staff who attended the recent scouting combine.

Given their dearth of cap space, the 49ers could have trouble filling their receiver void via free agency. That means they probably won’t be able to take advantage of a deep class of established wideouts, which would make drafting one with their first-rounder – the 15th overall selection – a strong possibility. The 49ers need to find a complement to (and potential long-term replacement for) 34-year-old Anquan Boldin, and they might land one in DeVante Parker (Louisiville) or Kevin White (West Virginia) with their top pick.

In the event the 49ers don’t take a receiver at 15, speedsters like Phillip Dorsett (Miami), Devin Smith (Ohio State) and Sammie Coates (Auburn) are potential targets who could be available after the first round. There’s also Dorial Green-Beckham, whom Bucky Brooks of NFL.com sees as a possible fit for San Francisco. At 6-foot-5, 237 pounds, Green-Beckham has elite size to accompany 4.49 speed. Despite that enticing combination, he might drop in the draft because of past off-field transgressions – ones that led to his dismissal from Missouri’s football team in 2014.

Other than receiver, San Francisco doesn’t have any glaring offensive holes. If Gore leaves, the 49ers have an in-house option in Carlos Hyde, a second-round pick last April who averaged 4.0 yards per carry as a rookie and scored four touchdowns. Replacing Iupati would be a tougher task, but another player from last year’s draft class (third-rounder Brandon Thomas) would have the inside track to take the reins at left guard. The 24-year-old Thomas was thought to be better than a third-round prospect before tearing his ACL a few weeks prior to the draft.

Defensively, the Niners were terrific last season, ranking fifth in both yardage and DVOA and 10th in points allowed. Ideally, they’ll be even better in 2015 with full seasons from brand-name linebackers Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman and Aldon Smith. Those three combined to miss 35 games last season (Bowman lost all 16 because of a torn ACL and MCL), but they’ve also combined to make 10 Pro Bowls in the past. In 2013, when each of them played the majority of the season, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) ranked Bowman and Willis first and third, respectively, among 3-4 ILBs, while the site graded Smith as the fifth-best 3-4 OLB. Having those three and a pair of outstanding second-year men in Chris Borland and Aaron Lynch gives the 49ers an embarrassment of riches at linebacker.

The prospect of a deep and dominant linebacking corps is certainly a plus, but the 49ers do have defensive needs. Those needs begin along the line, where one end (Ray McDonald) has already been released and another (Justin Smith) is considering retirement. Although McDonald ranged from good to great during his eight-year 49ers career, the team cut him in December because of poor off-field conduct. Smith, 36 in September, has missed just two games since joining the Niners in 2008. His advanced age aside, Smith was still a crucial part of San Francisco’s defense last season. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) agreed, ranking him as the league’s 11th-best 3-4 end in 2014.

The 49ers have already tried to combat some of their D-line issues by bringing back one of their former players, Ricky Jean-Francois. The Colts released the six-year veteran and four-year Niner earlier this month, but he chose to sign with Washington. Regardless, it’s clear that the 49ers are aware of their line problems. They’ll likely continue trying to address them as the offseason moves forward.

San Francisco’s other defensive questions lie at cornerback, given the nebulous statuses of Culliver and Cox. On the bright side, the secondary will get Tramaine Brock back at full strength next season. Brock broke out in 2013 with five interceptions as a nickel back, which led to the 49ers giving him a four-year, $16 million extension, and then missed 13 of 16 games last season with toe and hamstring injuries. Brock’s return will be a boon to a pass defense that managed to finish 10th without him. Brock’s comeback won’t mean as much if both Culliver and Cox walk, obviously, but even if the Niners can only keep one of the two, they should still be in decent shape at corner.

Possible Cap Casualties/Contract Restructurings:

Odds are the 49ers will release Ahmad Brooks this offseason, considering his recent below-average play and the team’s wealth at the linebacker position. If the 49ers drop Brooks on June 1, they’ll save $4.71MM on next season’s cap.

Receiver Stevie Johnson‘s roster spot is also in jeopardy, even though San Francisco is weak at wideout. Moving on from Johnson, who caught just 35 passes last season, would avail north of $6MM in cap room for the 49ers.

Regardless of whom they part ways with, the 49ers should look to restructure some of their veterans’ deals this offseason. Aldon Smith, Willis and Bowman are scheduled to have the second-, third- and fourth-highest cap hits on the team next season. Combined, they’ll take up roughly $25MM. Both Willis and Bowman have restructured their contracts in the past to create spending space for the club, so there’s precedent with both of them.

Extension Candidates:

The 49ers will have decisions to make regarding the futures of Aldon Smith, Vernon Davis and Alex Boone in the coming year. All three are scheduled for free agency in 2016.

Smith has demonstrated immense ability during his four-year career, totaling 44 sacks in 50 games. Unfortunately, the four-year veteran’s on-field accomplishments have come with serious off-field negatives. The latest, an April 2014 incident between Smith and TSA agent at the Los Angeles Airport, led to a nine-game suspension for the 25-year-old last season. Despite Smith’s problems, Baalke recently referred to him as “a great young man.” Smith will count $9.75MM against San Francisco’s cap this year. Whether Smith is in Baalke’s long-term plans is likely to depend on how he fares both on and off the field in 2015. If all goes well, Smith will have a strong chance to become one of the highest-paid 3-4 OLBs in the league. At the moment, Green Bay’s Clay Matthews has the richest contract at the position in both total and annual value ($66MM and $13.2MM, respectively). Matthews signed that deal in 2013 as a four-year vet with 42.5 sacks in 58 games.

As for Davis and Boone, both expressed dissatisfaction in regards to their contracts during holdouts last year. Davis skipped the team’s voluntary and mandatory minicamps, while Boone sat out the entire summer and reported to the 49ers a week before the regular season started.

The 31-year-old Davis is just two years removed from a 13-touchdown showing, but 2014 was his worst season since 2008. He amassed a paltry 26 catches with all-time lows in yardage and YPC, while his two TDs tied a career worst. Even if he bounces back in 2015, the odds of San Francisco giving Davis a sizable contract extension don’t seem high. Although he has been among the top tight ends in the league for the better part of his nine-year career, it’s fair to wonder if Davis’ best days are behind him.

Unlike Davis, it’s clear Boone has plenty left in the tank. Pro Football Focus (subscription required) rated the 27-year-old as the 17th-best guard in the league in 2014 – just three spots behind Iupati – out of 78 qualifiers. Boone will make $3.74MM in 2015, the final year of his contract. That’s just below the value of the 10th-highest-paid right guard in the league (Washington’s Chris Chester at $4MM). In all likelihood, an extension for Boone would mean signing him to a deal that would at least get him into the top 10 in total value, yearly value and guaranteed money. With Iupati’s time as a Niner on the brink of ending, San Francisco would be wise to get Boone locked up at some point in the next year. For a team that has prioritized running the ball, losing its two outstanding guards in a 12-month span would be quite a setback.

Overall Outlook:

Despite the failures of last season and the resulting coaching change, the 49ers are still more talented than the majority of teams around the league. Because of that, they’ll have a shot to return to the playoffs in 2015 – particularly if Kaepernick rebounds and Tomsula doesn’t end up drowning in his new role. Nevertheless, the ultra-competitive NFC West certainly won’t make life easy for Kaepernick, Tomsula or the rest of the 49ers.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Detroit Lions

February 27th, 2015 at 8:21pm CST by Zachary Links

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Calvin Johnson, WR: $20,558,000
  2. Matthew Stafford, QB: $17,721,250
  3. Stephen Tulloch, LB: $5,800,000
  4. Glover Quin, S: $5,742,500
  5. Golden Tate, WR: $5,350,000
  6. Ezekiel Ansah, DE: $5,071,228
  7. DeAndre Levy, LB: $4,500,000
  8. Jason Jones, DE: $3,983,334
  9. Brandon Pettigrew, TE: $3,800,000
  10. Joique Bell, RB: $3,500,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 23 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview:

With 23 free agents and only $18.44MM worth of cap space, the Lions will have to make some tough choices in the coming months. Much of the attention, if not all of the attention, has been centered on Ndamukong Suh, and for good reason. Not only is Suh one of the most feared defensive linemen in the NFL, but he is the giant domino that will determine how the rest of the offseason goes. The Lions badly want to keep him, of course, but they also know that their “big three” of Suh, Matthew Stafford, and Calvin Johnson is eating up a tremendous portion of their cap room.

Key Free Agents:

Of course, this list starts with none other than Suh. The Lions are working hard on a new contract for the dominant defensive tackle, and GM Martin Mayhew remains confident that the two sides will work something out. It’s always good to have confidence, but those of us on the outside aren’t sure how things are going to work out. Suh’s camp has been vocal about their desire for the biggest contract possible and his team let the world know last season that he wouldn’t mind joining up with the Giants or Jets, where he could maximize his marketability. Suh might also look towards the Seahawks and West Coast teams, as he is a Pacific Northwest native.

The Lions have the franchise tag at their disposal, of course, but that would set them back $26.9MM, even higher than last season’s $22MM salary. As much as they want to keep the former No. 2 overall pick, the near-$27MM figure would represent more than 19% of the Lions’ overall salary cap if they exercise this option. On top of that, the Lions will also be saddled with the $9MM+ in dead money from his rookie contract that will count against the cap. The question isn’t whether the Lions want Suh back — it’s whether they can get anything of substance done in free agency if they pay him mega-bucks, either via the franchise tag or through a long-term pact. Back in December, PFR’s Luke Adams explored the Lions’ different options, including allowing him to walk. Ndamukong Suh

Of course, Suh isn’t the Lions’ only important free agent defensive tackle. Nick Fairley is also scheduled to hit the open market and keeping both players could prove to be challenging. After posting a top-20 season for defensive tackles, per PFF (subscription required), Fairley figures to draw a lot of interest. It also helps that he was found not guilty on a DUI charge, which would have guaranteed a suspension for the first two games of the 2015 season (that could still happen, but the chances have been reduced dramatically). In theory, Fairley could be a franchise candidate if the tag is not used on Suh, but it’s hard to see the Lions wanting to pay him a top salary just a year after turning down his fifth-year option, valued at just $5.5MM. At the time, Detroit didn’t know that Fairley would go from being an inconsistent talent to one of the better DTs in the league. In 2014, Fairley was playing at perhaps his highest level yet before a sprained MCL and PCL in Week 8 ended his season. Despite his limited amounted of snaps (297), he still placed as the league’s 18th-best DT per PFF and his absence on the Detroit defense was very noticeable. Our own Dallas Robinson took a detailed look at Fairley earlier this month.

Defensive end George Johnson tried to make the case that he should be classified as an unrestricted free agent this offseason, but his battle fell short when the NFLPA eventually saw things Detroit’s way. Now a restricted free agent, it seems more likely that he’ll wind up staying put in Detroit. The 27-year-old carved out a role for himself as the preferred bookend off of the bench in 2014 and he should continue that role next season.

Beyond Suh and Fairley, another defensive tackle will be eligible to hit the open market in C.J. Mosley. Mosley isn’t as high of a priority as the other two, of course, but he did do a respectable job filling in for Fairley last season while he was sidelined.

Earlier this month, Mayhew said that he hopes to bring back cornerback Rashean Mathis for the 2015 season, citing the veteran’s versatility as a major positive. Mathis earned the minimum salary last season so it’ll be interesting to see if Detroit will go well beyond that to retain him, if necessary.

The Lions had a revolving door at the left guard position for years before Rob Sims came aboard in 2010 and started 80 straight games. Despite that durability, Sims has been banged up over the last couple of years and his production has declined as a result. Sims did rebound from a slow start in 2014, however, as he earned a positive grade from Pro Football Focus in every game from Week 11 onward. The Lions already informed long-time center Dominic Raiola they don’t plan on bringing him back in 2015, so it remains to be seem if Sims will be asked back. For what it’s worth, Sims wants to stay in Detroit.

Kickers aren’t often featured in the “Key Free Agents” section of our Offseason Outlooks, but the Lions learned the hard way how important a kicker can be this season. After running through two shaky legs in Nate Freese and Alex Henery, the Lions added Matt Prater mid-season and while he wasn’t flawless, he did hold down the position. Prater has been one of the most dominant kickers in the league over the last few years and figures to draw serious interest from any team with a vacancy there. He expressed a desire to stay with the Lions and the club met with his reps in Indianapolis earlier this month.

While they’re not marquee names, Mayhew recently mentioned quarterback Dan Orlovsky and long snapper Don Muhlbach as two under-the-radar potential free agents that the team was optimistic about re-signing, and he has since locked up Muhlbach — Orlovsky could be next. Speaking of Matthew Stafford’s understudies, Kellen Moore won’t be offered an RFA tender but Detroit would be interested in bringing him back.

Positions Of Need:

With Suh and Fairley potentially hitting the open market, the Lions could have a major need at defensive tackle. No, you won’t find another Suh on the open market, but this year’s crop features names like Terrance Knighton, Henry Melton, and Jared Odrick. Besides Suh, you won’t find a more proven free agent DT on the right side of 30 than the run-stuffing Knighton. The Broncos standout has ranked as the 12th- and ninth-best defensive tackle the past two years, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Melton is also an interesting name and he was playing some solid football for the Cowboys in 2014 before he was placed on IR. In the draft, the Lions could take a hard look at guys like Florida State’s Eddie Goldman, Ohio State’s Michael Bennett, and Texas’ Malcom Brown.

The Lions will be in the market for a running back after parting ways with Reggie Bush, who will celebrate his 30th birthday in the coming days. Detroit has Joique Bell on its roster, but the team probably isn’t looking to put a giant workload on his shoulders for 16 games. In theory, the Lions could take a tailback at No. 23 and go for the likes of Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley. However, I’d expect them to instead target a back in the later rounds. The Lions already have Theo Riddick in-house to help split the workload with Bell, and George Winn also figures to see some carries. The Lions shed a big name in Bush, but they don’t need a star to take his spot on the roster.

The Lions might have some work to do on their offensive line this offseason. If the aforementioned Sims is not retained, Detroit will be in the market for a left guard. Meanwhile, they have a starting right tackle under contract in LaAdrian Waddle, but it’d be hard to count on him staying healthy given his track record over the last couple of seasons. The Lions could roll with Waddle and plug in backup Cornelius Lucas (who made three starts in 2014) as needed, but they would probably prefer to give Stafford more peace of mind when in the pocket. The Lions won’t bring Raiola back next season, but understudy Travis Swanson is ready to move into the starting center role for 2015.

Possible Cap Casualties:

2014, of course, was a year to forget for linebacker Stephen Tulloch. The linebacker’s season ended after just three games when he tore his ACL while celebrating a sack. While he was out, Tahir Whitehead filled in capably, and that leaves the Lions with an interesting choice this offseason. Detroit could continue to roll with Whitehead at middle linebacker and carve out some space by parting ways with Tulloch. The 30-year-old is slated to count $5.8MM against the cap next season. Whitehead, meanwhile, costs just $713K.

If George Johnson is retained, the Lions could gain a bit more breathing room by dropping Jason Jones. Jones is slated to count for $3.98MM against the cap in 2015, but the Lions could save $3.15MM by showing him the door. Beyond Johnson, the Lions have more options at bookend in Darryl Tapp (free agent), Devin Taylor, and Larry Webster.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues:

Would Calvin Johnson re-work his deal to help re-sign Suh? Bell certainly hopes he’ll be open to it. “We’ll have to talk to Calvin, see if he can do something,” Bell said in early February. “We just need him back. Come back, Suh.” Recently, Megatron said that he’ll do whatever he has to do to keep the All-Pro defensive tackle in Detroit, as Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press writes. At present, Johnson is scheduled to count for $20.5MM against the cap in 2015. He has re-worked his contract for the Lions in the past, having restructured his deal in 2013 to free up $3.5MM of cap space.

While there’s uncertainty about a couple of spots on the Lions’ offensive line, there’s no concern when it comes to left tackle, where Riley Reiff is entrenched. At last check, Detroit is undecided about the fifth-year option for offensive tackle but it’s possible the club will look into an extension to keep him beyond that point. Linebacker DeAndre Levy has been a good value on his rookie contract but he’ll be a free agent after he earns $3.5MM in 2015. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Lions lock their starting weakside linebacker up long before another team gets the chance to steal him away. Levy graded out as the third-best outside linebacker in a 4-3 scheme according to the advanced metrics at PFF.

Overall Outlook:

Any way you slice it, retaining Suh will cost the Lions a whole lot of flexibility. However, the Lions have fewer holes than most of the league’s contending teams and they might just bite the bullet at the cost of playing a little thin in some areas.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Denver Broncos

February 25th, 2015 at 9:03pm CST by Sam Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Peyton Manning, QB: $21,500,000
  2. Ryan Clady, LT: $10,600,000
  3. Von Miller, OLB: $9,754,000
  4. DeMarcus Ware, DE: $8,666,666
  5. T.J. Ward, S: $7,750,000
  6. Aqib Talib, CB: $6,968,750
  7. Louis Vasquez, G/T: $6,250,000
  8. Emmanuel Sanders, WR: $5,850,000
  9. Britton Colquitt, P: $3,750,000
  10. Manuel Ramirez, C/G: $3,166,668

Notable Coaching Changes:

Draft:

Other:

Overview:

The Broncos’ window to capture their first Super Bowl title since 1998 may still be open should Peyton Manning indeed return for an 18th season, but that window has undergone some significant alterations. The Broncos entered last season with probably their best roster since ’98, but endured a divisional-round exit for the second time in three seasons. Despite a 12-4 record that gave Denver 38 regular-season wins since 2012 — matching the 1996-98 Broncos squads for the most conquests in a three-year span — the 24-13 loss to the Colts resulted in John Fox‘s firing after four straight AFC West titles. Coordinators Adam Gase and Jack Del Rio moved on as well, Gase following Fox to Chicago and Del Rio becoming the second straight Broncos defensive coordinator (after Dennis Allen) to take the Raiders’ reins. These moves prompted a reunion of sorts to fix a team that suddenly has more questions than it’s faced in years. Each a former Broncos assistant or head coach, Gary Kubiak and coordinators Rick Dennison and Wade Phillips are the result of a rare performance-induced sideline overhaul of a team that played in the Super Bowl a season ago.NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Determining whether a return to a Super Bowl is a feasible reality still depends on Manning’s status. Likely due back and already discussing a restructuring of his deal, Manning tossed 39 touchdown passes — the third-most he’s thrown in a season — and 4,727 yards last year. On the back of Manning and C.J. Anderson, the Broncos finished third in offensive DVOA last season, which was a bit off 2013’s historic mark. But Manning’s prodigious play ceased toward the end of the regular season, and a franchise-altering swoon followed, culminating with the 38-year-old QB averaging just 4.59 yards per attempt in the playoff defeat. That represented Manning’s second-lowest such figure in his 24-game playoff career and raised questions about his future. Manning and the Broncos have until March 9, when the signal-caller’s 2015 contract becomes guaranteed with a $19MM salary, to decide on another year together. But it’s clear the future Hall of Famer will need at least as much help as he’s been receiving the past three years to keep the Broncos in dominant form. Defensively, the Broncos’ 2014 impact additions of Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware helped result in Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 collective unit (subscription required), but the sum of the defense’s parts bested the group’s overall work. Although the unit ranked fourth in DVOA, the Broncos’ 22.6 points per game yielded were 16th last season despite re-deploying starters Chris Harris, Von Miller, Derek Wolfe and Rahim Moore after season-ending injuries that restrained the defense in 2013.

As of right now, more than a third of the Broncos’ starting lineup are free agents, and other than promising to apply the franchise tag to Demaryius Thomas, the statuses of the rest of Denver’s key contract-year players (Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton, Orlando Franklin) are murky. Both Demaryius and Julius Thomas reportedly turned down extensions, and Knighton has alerted media he’s unsatisfied with the Broncos’ effort to bring him back. Still a good bet for 12-win seasons, with a QB-record 11 of them, Manning probably returns to make the Broncos AFC West favorites again, but whether they take care of their own will shape this offseason. Manning’s presence triggered spending sprees for a Broncos team that relied on mostly second-tier free agents for years prior to his arrival. But now that one or possibly two years remain in Manning’s career, Denver may not be the marquee free agency destination it was.

Coaching Changes:

Counting the Broncos’ 2011 wild card conquest and their AFC title in 2013, Fox won 49 games in four years. That total trails only Bill Belichick (56) and Pete Carroll (50) during that span. But it couldn’t coax GM John Elway to grant Fox, who received a three-year contract extension last April, a fifth season in the Mile High City. After allowing a risky switch from a pro-style attack to a read-option approach for Tim Tebow, Fox’s degree of difficulty lessened with Manning’s arrival. But higher stakes came with that, and Denver lost three times as a playoff point-spread favorite, ultimately re-routing the conservative 60-year-old coach to the Bears.

“The working relationship there between he and John Elway, it wasn’t the greatest working relationship. It started off great, but then it started not working out,” Jay Glazer said during a Fox Sports 1 segment in January. “… John Elway looked at this season as, ‘This is all or nothing. With what we spent, you’ve got to go win us a Super Bowl.'”

Elway’s replacement hires were somewhat conservative.

Kubiak didn’t join Dan Quinn, Todd Bowles or even Gase among the hot-candidates list in January, but his relationship with Elway provided the trump card for the 53-year-old who spent 20 years as a player and coordinator in Denver. Unlike Gase, who interviewed for the Broncos’ and four other HC spots, Kubiak only took one meeting after elevating the Ravens’ offense last year. Although Kubiak’s eight-year tenure as Texans head coach brought just two playoff berths and concluded with a 2-14 campaign and late-season firing in 2013, his rushing offenses ranked in the top 10 in four of the past five seasons with the most recent on the back of journeyman Justin Forsett‘s 1,266 yards. The zone-blocking scheme Kubiak will use again in Denver may have peaked in the NFL during his first coaching stint there. Five Broncos runners, including Olandis Gary and Reuben Droughns, totaled 1,000-yard seasons from 1995-05.

Although Kubiak is still expected to call plays, something he didn’t do until 2005 under Mike Shanahan in his previous Broncos stint, this will be Dennison’s eighth year as an offensive coordinator. A longtime Broncos assistant prior to taking over as Denver’s OC in 2006, Dennison followed Kubiak to Houston and Baltimore. Joe Flacco established career highs in passing yards and TDs under Dennison’s watch as QBs coach last season. Despite his familiarity with Kubiak’s play action-heavy system, Dennison won’t have the same opportunities Gase did. The sideline architect calling the shots for the Broncos’ accelerated attack that set numerous NFL records in 2013, Gase could be missed as the Broncos transition away from an offense that thrived on creating short- and mid-range space for Manning’s targets to an older model with fewer formations and nuances.

The most notable aspect of Phillips’ return to Denver is the return of a 3-4 defense. Aside from the two Josh McDaniels years, the Broncos have deployed a 4-3 look as their base since Phillips’ last stint with the franchise — as their DC from 1989-92 and head coach in the two successive seasons. Fired three times as a head coach, the 67-year-old has supervised seven teams’ defenses dating back to 1981 and enjoyed success revitalizing units. Phillips won’t have to reshape as much in his new gig with personnel that should be able to adjust to role shifts. Larger defensive ends Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson make for better 5-technique candidates than ends from most 4-3 teams. Two speed-rushers (Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware) with experience pursuing from two-point stances and outside linebackers who led the team in tackles the past two years: Danny Trevathan in 2013 and Brandon Marshall last season, respectively, are also due back.

Key Free Agents

The variable in that scenario and a key component in the Broncos’ offseason matrix is whether they want to pay up to keep the fulcrum of their formidable run defenses the past two years. Knighton has the size to play nose in a 3-4 set but not the experience, and although he was an active force in the Broncos finishing seventh and second in run stoppage in his two seasons, he logged 528 snaps last year — 32nd-most among defensive tackles. Adding to the uncertainty surrounding the gregarious lineman is his reported demand of $7.5MM per season, a figure that would rank second among 3-4 DTs in the league. Even with Demaryius Thomas’ presumed franchise tag salary taking up almost half of the Broncos’ cap room, Knighton returning at $7.5MM per season makes more sense if Denver still planned to play a 4-3. Twenty 4-3 defensive tackle contracts exceed the value of the third-highest 3-4 NT’s deal, according to OverTheCap. Knighton’s two-year, $4.5MM pact turned out to be a bargain for the Broncos, but the odds of the team meeting his new asking price are slim.

That decision becomes more complicated with multiyear starters Julius Thomas, Franklin and Moore, as well as several lower-value starters, up for new deals. Assuming the Broncos don’t reach a long-term accord with Demaryius Thomas, his franchise tag of approximately $12.8MM will make re-ups for the aforementioned players difficult. If the Broncos follow through on not re-signing Knighton or the aforementioned trio of 2011 draftees, they’ll continue a thrifty trend when it comes to keeping their own picks. The Broncos currently have just two of their own draft choices on second contracts — Ryan Clady and David Bruton — although Harris and Britton Colquitt were undrafted players they re-signed.

Using the method of bringing in outside help the past two years by signing big names like Ware, Talib, Ward and Wes Welker, the Broncos effectively allowed the players from previous regimes’ drafts to leave, and excluding Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, none were above-average starters. With that being the case this year with Julius Thomas, Franklin (PFF’s 13th-best guard last season; subscription required) or Virgil Green, who based on his run-blocking prowess outranked Thomas in PFF’s tight end hierarchy, permitting the bulk of a class chosen by this front office to depart may send a bad message to the locker room.

Keeping Julius Thomas would go a long way to the passing game staying in high gear, but the 26-year-old tight end appears set on an exit strategy. Beyond Knighton, Green could then be the No. 3 priority for the Broncos considering his productive stretch once ground gains became more prudent after Thomas re-injured his ankle. Of the unrestricted FAs, center Will Montgomery, who worked in Shanahan’s zone scheme in Washington prior to signing a one-year deal last season, could slot just behind Green on the Broncos’ itinerary. He wouldn’t cost much to retain. Aiming to return for his age-34 season, Welker will play elsewhere after an inconsistent and punishing Broncos tenure.

Positions Of Need

Of the quarterbacks who started all 16 games last season, Manning was the least-sacked at just 16. Although his accuracy against the blitz waned considerably, Manning’s 2.22 seconds per release makes official sacks tricky. But the Broncos used three players at right tackle last season, made changes at center and right guard and scrapped some of the aggressive elements offensively after the Patriots, Raiders, and Rams regularly pressured Manning in midseason games. Beyond Clady and Louis Vasquez, the group will see more reconfiguration.

With Franklin, who often struggled to match up with quicker pass-rushers at right tackle but adapted his power game well at left guard, likely moving on, Manuel Ramirez being a better fit in a man-blocking scheme and Montgomery more of a stop-gap fix than multiyear solution, the Broncos will need at least three linemen in free agency or the draft. They drafted Michael Schofield in the third round last year to work at right tackle, but undrafted FA Paul Cornick saw game reps instead; Schofield didn’t dress for a game as a rookie. Kubiak’s most recent right tackle in Houston, 27-year-old Derek Newton, would be a fit with former Broncos draft choices Ryan Harris and Tyler Polumbus serving as lower-end options at Denver’s most troublesome position. Miami’s Ereck Flowers or LSU’s La’el Collins could still be on the board at No. 28 if the Broncos fail to land a proven tackle in free agency.

The Broncos will likely draft at least one interior lineman in the early-to-mid rounds while signing another. Vasquez’s move back to right guard, where he was a first-team All-Pro in 2013, will help this transition. But a veteran will join as well with not much in the way of existing depth here, although 2014 sixth-round pick Matt Paradis had a year to develop behind Montgomery and Ramirez last season.

Not utilized much in pass-rush situations, Knighton remained the Broncos’ only proven run-stopper inside with 2013 first-rounder Sylvester Williams regressing after a promising finish as a rookie. A four-year starter in a 3-4 defense, Cardinals run-stopping NT Dan Williams would be a good consolation prize here with Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley and Knighton dominating the market’s defensive tackle hype.

If the Broncos whiff on re-signing Green as well, they’ll have to start over at tight end with Jacob Tamme also a free agent and relegated to special teams duty the last two years. Green does not have the separation ability Julius Thomas does, so even if the Broncos can convince him to stay, they’ll need to add a move tight end. Jordan Cameron seems bound to leave Cleveland with the quarterback position in shambles and offers good receiving skills, but he may draw an offer in the neighborhood of Thomas’ despite his injury-marred contract year. Considering how much the Broncos have relied on familiarity in their offseason hires, Owen Daniels (Kubiak’s tight end for nine straight seasons) seems like the realistic backup option to Thomas. Denver’s passing game would take a hit in that event with an clear athletic chasm residing between those two players.

Once the Broncos traded up to take Cody Latimer in the second round last year, their 2015 plan appeared clear: move Emmanuel Sanders back to the slot where the Steelers used him and align Latimer outside after Welker’s contract expires. But Latimer, who displayed an elite catch radius at Indiana, received sparse reps behind the Broncos’ top three while Jarvis Landry and Donte Moncrief became regulars despite being selected later. It would be difficult to imagine Denver turning to Andre Caldwell here despite the veteran being under contract; he had a rough year. But in an offense that relies more on double-tight end sets, there won’t be as much onus on Latimer than in Gase’s three-wide looks.

Ward and Moore in a way complemented each other well, with both safeties exhibiting a clear strength. Moore rebounded from his infamous playoff misplay and a life-threatening injury in 2013 with a steadier coverage campaign. That facet helped justify his weakness against the run, which isn’t as big of an issue for a free safety. Working often as a sub-package linebacker, Ward finished with the seventh-worst coverage grade among the 87 safeties PFF graded. With Ward signed long-term, the Broncos will need to place a premium on coverage skills in the likely event they replace Moore. Depth-wise, David Bruton serves as a key special teamer and physical-type safety, and Quinton Carter will be allowed to leave after missing two full seasons due to injury. The Bills’ Da’Norris Searcy and Chiefs’ Ron Parker, who began the year as a cornerback, are possible contingency plans to team with Ward.

The impending James Casey visit could fulfill the Broncos’ quest for their first fullback slot in three years. The new regime will sign one, leaving fewer opportunities for Manning to work in his preferred three-WR set.

Extension Candidates:

The Broncos’ best draft since at least 2006, which produced Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Elvis Dumervil and Chris Kuper, started with Miller. The second pick in what became the first draft under the new collective bargaining agreement, Miller is perhaps the NFL’s second-best all-around defensive talent to J.J. Watt. Unlike Watt, selected nine spots later in 2011, Miller does not have a long-term agreement and will enter the final season of his rookie contract after the Broncos picked up his fifth-year option. Legal and substance-abuse issues notwithstanding, Miller is primed to be the premier defensive player in the 2016 free agent class should the Broncos not work out a deal or use the franchise tag on him.

Unless Miller finds himself in off-the-field trouble again, it’s unlikely he’ll hit that market. Ranking as PFF’s best 4-3 outside linebacker by a substantial margin from 2011-13 (subscription required) and second-best in 2014, he’s paired a dynamic pass-rushing skill set (49 sacks) with elite run-containing ability. His second contract should eclipse Clay Matthews’ total value of $66MM. Seeing what the Chiefs do with Justin Houston will help set a price for the Broncos’ more well-rounded linebacker. A move back to the 3-4 he starred in at Texas A&M, Miller and his already-diverse repertoire of edge maneuvers could be further on display this season, making the Broncos’ decision easier.

Another PFF wunderkind as the third-best 4-3 end last year, Jackson looks to finally be given a starting role in his contract year after outperforming starting end Wolfe the past two seasons. Denver’s fifth-round selection in 2012’s flashed consistently as a reserve end and tackle with the size to remain up front in a 3-4. Similar to the Ravens’ Pernell McPhee, Jackson could see his value rise out of his team’s price range with another good year. The Broncos would be wise to discuss a plan for the future with their versatile 25-year-old utility talent before this happens, but with big deals for Ware and likely Miller and the three pricey long-term contracts in the secondary, there may not be enough space to make a substantial offer.

Without factoring in any money that could be allocated to Demaryius Thomas, Miller and any free agents this year, the Broncos have $51.7MM of cap room in 2016, which is among the NFL’s lower third, according to OverTheCap.

Overall Outlook:

The Broncos still possess more talent than most teams, but the Super Bowl-or-bust mantra they used the past two seasons doesn’t seem as appropriate now. Those rosters had clear identities and, at least coming into the season, Manning in peak form. Without certainty on either matter at present, pressure looms for the Broncos in the coming weeks to retain the right players and continue to generate good value from the outsiders they sign. The first part of that equation wasn’t as big of an issue for them in recent years with no free agents of this caliber potentially leaving. Having to replace several quality starters and produce a better result may be asking too much. If the Broncos can’t stay on their current level after they cleared out the coaching staff, then Elway will face real criticism for the first time in his tenure. Manning regressing much further likely ensures that reality.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Steelers

February 24th, 2015 at 11:03pm CST by Rory Parks

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Ben Roethlisberger, QB: $18,395,000
  2. Lawrence Timmons, LB: $12,566,250
  3. Antonio Brown, WR: $9,787,500
  4. Troy Polamalu, S: $8,250,000
  5. Maurkice Pouncey, C: $8,100,000
  6. Cortez Allen, CB: $6,981,000
  7. Marcus Gilbert, T: $6,980,000
  8. Cameron Heyward, DL: $6,969,000
  9. Heath Miller, TE: $5,666,666
  10. Mike Mitchell, S: $4,950,000

Notable coaching changes:

Draft:

  • No. 22 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

By virtue of a Week 17 victory against division rival Cincinnati, the Steelers snagged the AFC North title in 2014, which is impressive enough in its own right, but especially so when considering that the division sent three teams to the playoffs last year. Much of Pittsburgh’s success was built on its tremendous offensive performance, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed a career year behind an offensive line that managed to keep him mostly upright, and Le’Veon Bell established himself as a premier all-purpose threat. Antonio Brown, meanwhile, proved that he is one of the league’s most prolific receivers, catching an incredible 129 passes for nearly 1,700 yards. He even added a passing touchdown and a punt return touchdown to the 13 TDs that he hauled in through the air. Combined with the strong showings of second-year wideout Markus Wheaton and rookie Martavis Bryant, the Steelers offense looks like it will be a powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

The defense, though, was a different story, and its underwhelming performance played a major role in the team’s disappointing defeat at the hands of wildcard entrant Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs. According to Pro Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, Pittsburgh’s defense was the third-worst in the league in 2014, while their offense was the second-best. The secondary’s performance was especially troubling, and that unit will be a primary focal point of the team’s offseason.

Former NFL agent Joel Corry recently tabbed the Steelers as having one of the worst salary cap situations in the league, and even the inevitable extension of Roethlisberger’s contract and the departure of a few aging veterans would not bring a ton of relief. After years of so-called salary cap hell, the Steelers will once again have to make every penny count over the next few months.

Key Free Agents

There are several notable names on the Steelers’ list of pending free agents, but only one is likely to generate a great deal of discussion: Jason Worilds. Pittsburgh used the transition tag on Worilds last season, and it has not ruled out using it again in 2015. The cost for the transition tag this year, though, will likely be around $11MM, and just last week GM Kevin Colbert implied that Worilds’ time in Pittsburgh may be up.

Jason Worilds (vertical)

Worilds ranked as the 11th-best 3-4 outside linebacker out of 46 qualified players according to Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), and his departure would leave a bit of a gap in the team’s pass rush, which has been among the league’s worst in each of the last two seasons. But although Worilds is a good player, he is not a great player at this point in his career, and the Steelers may be better off spending their money elsewhere. Although sack totals are by no means the best way to measure a player–particularly a player like Worilds, who has shown that he can also play well against the run–Worilds’ eight sacks suggest that his production would not be irreplaceable.

Outside of Worilds, the remainder of Pittsburgh’s free agent crop is rather underwhelming. Although Ike Taylor and James Harrison conjure fond memories for Steelers fans, their play has inevitably deteriorated in recent seasons as they reach the end of their careers. There has been talk that both players could retire or follow former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau to Tennessee, but it is unlikely that their departure would have anything other than sentimental import for the Steelers.

Coaching Changes

Speaking of LeBeau, who served as the team’s defensive coordinator from 1995-1996 and from 2004-2014 before stepping down from his position in January, his absence from the Steelers’ sidelines will be a strange one. LeBeau enjoyed tremendous success as the leader of Pittsburgh’s defense, and although his replacement, Keith Butler, will retain LeBeau’s familiar 3-4 scheme, the overall dynamic will certainly be different.

Butler will be tasked with getting the most out of a defense that has some young talent in unproven linebackers Ryan Shazier and Jarvis Jones, both of whom suffered significant injuries in 2014, and up-and-coming defensive end Cameron Heyward. But outside of those players, there is little to be excited about on the defensive side of the ball (assuming Worilds does not, in fact, return). We learned earlier this month that the team would target pass rushers and defensive backs in free agency and the draft, and given the talent disparity between Pittsburgh’s offense and defense, it would appear that the front office is prepared to devote most of its efforts this offseason to restocking the talent in Butler’s unit.

Contract Issues

Given the way Roethlisberger performed in 2014, there is no reason to believe he cannot continue playing at an All-Pro level for the next four or five seasons. To that end, we have heard for a few months that the team was preparing to give the face of its franchise a hefty extension, with something along the lines of a six-year, $120MM deal in play. Such an extension would likely lower Roethlisberger’s cap number for this year, thereby giving the team the financial wiggle room it needs to address the defense in free agency. Contract talks are progressing, and an agreement could come within the next several weeks.

On a less pleasant note, the Steelers could choose to part ways with Troy Polamalu, who has lost much of the dynamic playmaking ability that made him one of the most-feared safeties in the league for years. Releasing Polamalu would clear about $3.7MM in cap space, and even though the internal options to replace him are less than inspiring, the team may have no other choice but to part ways with the future Hall-of-Famer.

Cortez Allen, who was rewarded with an extension in September after a solid 2013 season, was nothing short of a disaster in 2014, and the team could choose to let him go rather than risk suffering through a similar performance in 2015. Though Allen’s release would create a minimal amount of cap room, it may be more logical for the Steelers to see if he can rebound in 2015 rather than cut a player at a position of need just one year removed from a strong campaign.

The team might also choose to extend guard David DeCastro, who has established himself as one of the better interior offensive linemen in the league over the course of the last several seasons, and Heyward, whose pass-rushing skills are still developing but who has shown great promise as an edge-setter on the defensive line. At this point, an extension is more likely for Heyward, who can become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. With DeCastro, the Steelers can buy a little more time if they exercise his fifth-year option, which would keep him under club control for 2016.

Overall Outlook

The Steelers, traditionally known for their iconic defenses, saw a true changing of the guard in 2014. Their offense, while always solid or better under Roethlisberger’s leadership, absolutely exploded last season, propelling Pittsburgh to the AFC North crown. The defense, meanwhile, will be the Steelers’ undoing in 2015 if they cannot utilize their minimal cap room and the draft to address their needs in the secondary and in the pass rush. A team that relies so heavily on their offense is rarely a title contender, but if Butler can find some of LeBeau’s magic, and if the team can unearth a gem or two in the draft, 2015 might just yield another chance at a seventh Super Bowl title.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Indianapolis Colts

February 24th, 2015 at 7:49pm CST by Connor J. Byrne

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Vontae Davis, CB: $11,250,000
  2. Robert Mathis, OLB: $7,750,000
  3. Anthony Castonzo, T: $7,438,000
  4. Arthur Jones, DT: $7,100,000
  5. Andrew Luck, QB: $7,034,363
  6. Gosder Cherilus, T: $6,900,000
  7. Greg Toler, CB: $5,833,334
  8. D’Qwell Jackson, LB: $5,750,000
  9. Erik Walden, OLB: $4,250,000
  10. Donald Thomas, T: $3,750,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 29 overall pick
  • Acquired sixth-round pick from Seahawks in deal for Marcus Burley.
  • Acquired seventh-round pick from Cowboys in deal for Caesar Rayford.
  • Owe seventh-round pick to 49ers for Cam Johnson.

Other:

Overview

Year three of the Andrew Luck era was another successful one for the Colts, whose 11-5 record was enough to earn them a second straight AFC South crown and a third consecutive playoff berth. The Colts also scored a pair of postseason victories, including a road upset over old friend Peyton Manning and the Broncos, before bowing out at the hands of the Super Bowl-winning Patriots in the conference championship.Andrew Luck

Indianapolis has improved by one playoff round per season under Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano, going from a wild-card loss to a divisional defeat to an AFC title game exit. The next logical step is the Super Bowl. In order to get there, though, the Colts will need a highly productive offseason – one which sees general manager Ryan Grigson fortify the roster around his 25-year-old franchise quarterback.

Positions Of Need

The Colts ranked first in the NFL in passing, third in total yardage and sixth in points per game in 2014. Those numbers would indicate that their offense isn’t in need of much help. However, they were a pedestrian 17th in Football Outsiders’ offensive efficiency ratings, their rushing attack ranked 22nd in yardage, and two of their established wide receivers are without contracts. Thus, there’s clearly work to be done.

Running back is a position the Colts are sure to address in the coming months. That could simply mean re-signing free agent-to-be Ahmad Bradshaw, though the eight-year veteran has dealt with major injury issues as a Colt and appeared in just 13 of a possible 32 regular-season games. To his credit, the 28-year-old racked up impressive numbers (725 total yards and eight touchdowns) prior to breaking his fibula last November. After Bradshaw got hurt, Dan Herron emerged as Indy’s most effective back. Herron averaged a terrific 4.5 yards per rush, but it was only over 78 attempts and his career sample size of 87 carries in three years is minuscule.

If the Colts don’t believe Bradshaw or Herron is the solution to their backfield woes, they might think differently of 10-year veteran Frank Gore. Multiple sources have linked Indianapolis to the career 49er, who the Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrow wrote in January was “curious” about joining the Luck-led Colts. More recently, Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller said last week (video link) that Gore to Indianapolis was a “shoo-in.” The bruising Gore would make sense as a stopgap, considering Colts O-coordinator Pep Hamilton is a proponent of a power running game.

The Colts also have uncertainty at receiver, where their only signed, viable options after T.Y. Hilton are Donte Moncrief and ex-CFL star Duron Carter. All three are 25 or younger, a far cry from Reggie Wayne – the Colts’ biggest free agent in terms of name recognition. The 36-year-old, who has played all 14 of his pro seasons with the Colts and caught over 1,000 passes, hasn’t yet informed the team if he plans on returning in 2015. Stephen Holder of the Indianapolis Star wrote last week that the Colts are “noncommittal” about Wayne, who has battled injuries and dips in production the last two years.

In the event the Colts part ways with Wayne and enable fellow free agent Hakeem Nicks to walk, they could turn to the open market to find a complement to Hilton. There are several accomplished receivers who are expected to test the market. One option is four-year Raven Torrey Smith. The 6-foot, 205-pounder has been both effective (213 receptions, 16.9 YPC, 30 TDs) and durable, having played in all 64 of Baltimore’s regular-season games during his career, and would give Luck a proven wideout to team with Hilton. It may work in the Colts’ favor that their new receivers coach, Jim Hostler, held the same position in Baltimore from 2011-13 and tutored Smith for three years. Signing Smith would take a sizable chunk out of the Colts’ $39MM-plus in cap space. Jason LaCanfora of CBSSports.com tweeted earlier this month that Smith rejected a five-year, $35MM offer ($19MM in guarantees) from the Ravens prior to last season.

Obviously, in order to get the most out of their backs and receivers (whomever they may be), the Colts will need a dependable offensive line. They have a strong twosome in stellar left tackle Anthony Castonzo and guard Jack Mewhort, but the rest of the group is less capable. Even though right tackle Gosder Cherilus had a miserable, injury-plagued 2014, the seven-year veteran is expected to stay in place because he’s been good in the past and cutting him would cost the Colts more than keeping him. That leaves center and guard as areas Grigson may try to upgrade.

Indy started a slew of different centers last season and, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), A.Q. Shipley was the strongest of the group. However, the restricted free agent is on the outs, Holder wrote last week. Further, according to Holder, Grigson won’t use more than a late-round pick on a center. He could go the free agency route for the Chiefs’ Rodney Hudson or the Raiders’ Stefen Wisniewski. Either would be probable upgrades over the Colts’ in-house options (Khaled Holmes and Jonotthan Harrison). Joel Corry, a cap expert and former agent, believes Hudson will end up with a deal upward of $5MM per year, according to the Kansas City Star’s Terez A. Paylor. Wisniewski is seeking money in the realm of an average starting center, ESPN’s Michael Wagaman has reported.

As for the guard position, the 49ers’ Mike Iupati heads the free agent class and, as an elite-level run blocker, would seem to be an excellent fit for a Colts team that needs to fix its ground game. The three-time Pro Bowler is going to cost a lot, without question, and landing him would likely mean moving Mewhort from left to right guard – where the soon-to-be second-year man played occasionally at Ohio State. Regardless, with Mewhort and Iupati, Indy would have a top-end guard tandem on paper.

On the other side of the ball, the Colts’ defensive line has already begun undergoing changes. The team made a newsworthy move Monday in releasing tackle Ricky Jean-Francois, who was due $5.5MM next season. In the wake of the Jean-Francois news, Holder speculated that the Colts could pursue the likes of Nick Fairley (Detroit) and Terrance Knighton (Denver) on the open market. Adding Fairley or Knighton would be auspicious for the Colts, who finished last season an unspectacular 18th in conventional run defense and 19th in Football Outsiders’ version. The Colts’ kryptonite, the Patriots, exploited that area of Indy’s defense in both teams’ matchups last season: LeGarrette Blount rushed for 148 yards in New England’s 45-7 AFC championship drubbing. Two months prior, the previously unknown Jonas Gray famously eclipsed the 200-yard mark in a 42-20 Pats victory.

Besides stopping the run, the other key function of the front seven is generating a pass rush. Despite the fact that the Colts finished 2014 with the ninth-most sacks in the league (41), Grigson still wants more rushers, Mike Chappell of RTV6 tweeted last week.

Eleven-year Colts veteran Robert Mathis paced the league in sacks two years ago (19.5) before missing all of last season, but Indy wouldn’t be wise to think his return will cure its ills. Mathis sat out 2014 because of a PED suspension and, worse, a torn Achilles. Moreover, he’s on the wrong end of the aging curve at 34. ESPN’s Mike Wells reported Monday that the Colts are “likely” to draft a rusher to complement Mathis and Jonathan Newsome, also noting that they’ll keep an eye on free agency. Wells specifically mentioned the Chiefs’ Justin Houston, who led the league in sacks last season (22), and the Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul, on whom New York is expected to place the franchise tag.

The prime area of concern on the back end of the Colts’ defense is safety, where they’re especially fallow. They already cut one starter from last season in strong safety LaRon Landry, while the other (free safety Mike Adams) is presently unsigned. So is main reserve Sergio Brown. There does seem to be optimism about the return of Adams, whom Grigson said the team would “love” to keep. At 33, Adams had a career year in 2014 with five interceptions and earned his first career Pro Bowl trip.

Regardless of whether Adams re-signs, the position will still need attention, which Pagano acknowledged. “There’s a bunch of guys out there in free agency we could take a look at,” Pagano said, according to Holder. “There’s a bunch of guys here at the draft we’ll evaluate.” 

The premier free agent is expected to be the Patriots’ Devin McCourty. Signing him would greatly aid the Colts while simultaneously dealing a tremendous blow to rival New England. Draft-wise, former Alabama star Landon Collins is already on the Colts’ radar.

Key Free Agents

The Colts have other noteworthy free agents besides the aforementioned. One is defensive lineman Cory Redding, who isn’t a slam dunk to play anywhere next season. The 34-year-old is pondering retirement after playing a substantial role for last year’s Colts, appearing in over 70% of defensive snaps and garnering praise from Pro Football Focus for his efforts.

Indianapolis also has decisions to make on two of Redding’s fellow integral defenders, linebacker Jerrell Freeman and cornerback Darius Butler. As a restricted free agent, Freeman is almost sure to return to the Colts. Butler, however, is unrestricted and could change uniforms as early as next month. The six-year veteran has spent the last three seasons with the Colts, totaling eight interceptions. While none of those INTs came in 2014, Butler was still a solid part of Indy’s above-average pass defense.

Finally, there’s a trio of unsung hero types in offensive lineman Joe Reitz, safety Colt Anderson and linebacker Andy Studebaker. The latter two are special teams stalwarts, while the 29-year-old Reitz’s best trait has been his versatility. Last year, in fact, he started at a team-high three different O-line positions and fared well. None of Reitz, Anderson or Studebaker should cost a ton for the Colts to bring back, but they’re all useful role players. Indy would be smart to re-sign all three.

Possible Cap Casualties

There’s one painfully obvious cap casualty on the Colts: Trent Richardson. It seems inevitable that the relationship between the Colts and the disappointing running back will end this offseason.

Richardson, whom the Colts acquired from Cleveland for a first-round pick in 2013, has been a colossal bust in his two seasons with Indianapolis. The 24-year-old has played 29 regular-season games as a Colt and registered just 977 rushing yards with a paltry 3.09 per-carry average. Worsening matters is that Richardson was scratched for the Colts’ final two playoff games last month, the latter of which was a suspension for missing a team walkthrough. With all of that considered, it’s clear that the next, final step in the marriage between the two sides is a divorce. If Indy releases Richardson, it will save more than $3MM for next season (provided Richardson’s guarantees void because of his suspension). The writing is on the wall.

Extension Candidates/Contract Issues

The Colts are going to have to shell out major money in the near future for some of their paramount offensive players.

Atop the list is Luck, who will be paid handsomely for both his accomplishments and his status as the face of the Colts’ franchise. During his three-year career, Luck has started all 52 of the Colts’ games (playoffs included), led the team to three straight double-digit-win outputs, and thrown for 86 touchdowns and nearly 13,000 yards in the regular season.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweeted last month that Indy was working on a contract that could make Luck the league’s highest-paid player. Team owner Jim Irsay refuted Schefter’s report, saying Luck still has two years left on his deal. If he isn’t extended by later this offseason, the Colts will exercise Luck’s 2016 option to make sure he’ll at least be theirs for two more seasons. Barring something disastrous, though, Indianapolis will surely do everything in its power to keep Luck under center for a lot longer.

The Colts will have to make more immediate decisions on three of Luck’s offensive mates – Hilton, Castonzo and tight end Coby Fleener – all of whom are scheduled for free agency next year.

Hilton came into the league with Luck in 2012 and has developed into his QB’s go-to target. The 5-foot-9, 178-pounder just completed his second straight 82-catch season, one in which he set a career high in yardage (1,345) and tied his previous touchdown mark (seven). The 25-year-old could end up with a contract similar to the one the Jets gave Eric Decker last offseason. Decker was coming off his second consecutive 80-catch, 1,000-yard season as a Bronco when he signed a five-year, $36.25MM deal with New York ($15MM in guarantees). He put up 216 catches (13.7 YPC) and 32 touchdowns from 2011-13, when his age ranged from 24 to 26. Compare that to Hilton’s three-year stretch – 214 grabs (15.4 YPC) and 19 scores from ages 23 to 25 – and you have the neighborhood in which his next contract is likely to live.

Castonzo, the cornerstone of the Colts’ offensive line, has appeared in and started 60 games since joining the team as a second-round pick in 2011. The 26-year-old has been the quintessence of reliability over the last three years. He played every offensive snap for the Colts in 2012, missed only four in 2013, and led all NFL O-linemen in snaps last season (1,115). Castonzo will make $7.4MM in 2015, the fifth-year option Indy picked up last offseason. That option is the value of the highest-paid 25 players at the position, excluding the top three players. An extension should see him climb toward the lower end of the top 10, where yearly value ranges start at $8.5MM.

Finally, there’s Fleener – who was part of a superb Colts 2012 draft class that, as mentioned, also produced Luck and Hilton. Fleener finished 2014 ranked 16th among tight ends in catches (51), eighth in yardage (774) and tied for fifth in TDs (eight). His per-catch average was tops at the position among those with at least 25 receptions. He’ll make under $1.7MM next season and is sure to get a considerable raise between this offseason and next. If Fleener ends up in the top 10 tight ends in yearly contract value, that would mean a salary north of $5MM per annum.

Overall Outlook

Assuming Luck stays healthy, the least the Colts will do next season is rule their division for the third straight year. Whether they can ascend to greater heights and dethrone the Patriots in the AFC will hinge on how well Grigson handles the offseason. The GM will have plenty of money to work with, which should help the Colts repair at least some of their issues and close the gap on the Pats, but he’ll have to keep the long-term future in mind when he considers spending it. His most important order of business this offseason will be locking up Indy’s offensive linchpins for the foreseeable future.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Carolina Panthers

February 23rd, 2015 at 7:38pm CST by Dallas Robinson

Pending free agents:

Top 10 2015 cap hits:

  1. Charles Johnson, DE: $20,020,000
  2. Cam Newton, QB: $14,666,000
  3. Ryan Kalil, C: $11,795,000
  4. Thomas Davis, LB: $9,900,000
  5. Jonathan Stewart, RB: $8,300,000
  6. Greg Olsen, TE: $7,800,000
  7. DeAngelo Williams, RB: $6,333,333
  8. Luke Kuechly, LB: $4,002,283
  9. Mike Tolbert, RB: $3,425,000
  10. Graham Gano, K: $3,100,000

Notable coaching changes:

  • None

Draft:

  • No. 25 overall pick
  • No traded picks

Other:

Overview

If you need further evidence that the NFC South was the worst division in the NFL last season, it’s this: the Panthers regressed in nearly every major statistical category from 2013 to 2014 — they fell from 10th to 20th in offensive DVOA, while moving No. 3 to No. 14 in in defensive DVOA — shaved five wins off their final record, and gave Derek AndCam Newtonerson two starts at quarterback…and still won the division.

Cam Newton started 14 games — missing Week 1 with a rib injury and Week 15 after being involved in a car accident — and completed 58.5% of his passes for for 3,127 yards an 18 touchdowns; he added another 539 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. It wasn’t a spectacular season, but Newton was playing behind an offensive line that had lost Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton, and throwing to receiving corps that had witnessed the defections of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell, and Ted Ginn Jr.

Similarly, Carolina’s defense had been ravaged by free agency, as Mike Mitchell, Captain Munnerlyn, and Drayton Florence all left the squad before 2014. Star defensive end Greg Hardy, who had 26 sacks in the two seasons prior, missed all but one game after being placed on the commissioner’s exempt list following a domestic violence incident. Somehow, though, the Panthers managed to earn a postseason berth despite winning only seven games, and even won a playoff game, defeating the Cardinals in the wild card round before succumbing to the Seahawks in the divisional round.

The Panthers have already begun to overhaul their roster in anticipation of the new league year next month. Today we learned that the club will release longtime running back DeAngelo Williams, a move which will actually cost the team cap space (unless he’s designated as a post-June 1 cut). Williams’ release comes on the heels of Carolina cutting veteran safety Thomas DeCoud last week.

Key Free Agents

Hardy is the clear No. 1 free agent on the Panthers’roster — charges against the 26-year-old were recently dismissed, but it still remains unlikely that he’ll return to Carolina. He played last season under the franchise tag, so the cost to use that tag on him for a second consecutive season would be exorbitant. Moreover, the Panthers seem opposed to retaining Hardy due to the headache he caused last season. While not speaking about Hardy directly, Carolina general manager Dave Gettleman recently asked “Who wants the ticking time bomb?” regarding players with off-the-field concerns.

Elsewhere on the defensive line, the Panthers have two veteran tackles — Dwan Edwards and Colin Cole — eligible for free agency. Both are older free agents (Edwards is 33, Cole 34), but each played in excess of 350 snaps in 2014; Edwards, specifically, saw nearly 600 snaps. Carolina might want to get younger at the position, but a club can never have too much depth up front. Perhaps the team will look to retain at least one of Edwards or Cole on a modest, one-year deal.

Following Gross’ retirement, Byron Bell emerged as the starter at left tackle, but his production was extremely disappointing. Per Pro Football Focus’ advanced metrics (subscription required), Bell ranked as the second-worst tackle in the league, finishing ahead of only Falcons rookie Jake Matthews. Bell wasn’t as bad as the starting right tackle during the early portion of his career, but he was still well below-average. Offensive line figures to be an area the Panthers address either in free agency or the draft, and both Bell and team source indicated today that the 26-year-old won’t be retained.

On the other hand, Carolina should look to retain reserve interior lineman Fernando Velasco, who started seven games last season, seeing action at both guard positions. The 30-year-old Velasco is probably something close to a replacement level talent at this point, but he was an above-average starter as recently as 2012. The Panthers have young players — Amini Silatolu and Trai Turner — at the guard spots, so Velasco could add valuable experience as the backup both there and at center.

27-year-old tight end Ed Dickson landed with in Carolina on a one-year deal prior to 2014 after spending his entire career with the Ravens. He played 532 snaps as the No. 2 TE to Greg Olsen, but wasn’t a standout blocker and caught only 10 passes. Dickson has expressed interest in re-signing with the Panthers on a multi-year deal (a lofty goal), but the club can probably do better.

Possible Cap Casualties

The Panthers don’t have a ton of players who could be pushed off the roster due to salary cap concerns. The only obvious candidate for release might be RB/FB Mike Tolbert, who’s scheduled to count $3.425MM against the cap next season. The 29-year-old is entering the final season of his two-year deal, and Carolina could clear $2.425MM in space by releasing him. He saw just 226 snaps in 2014, but given that the club just cut Williams, Tolbert’s role figures to grow in 2015, making his release unlikely.

Releasing veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Roman Harper could give the Panthers a combined $3MM windfall (if both were post-June 1 cuts). But both saw an extended amount of playing time last season, and performed at a capable level, so cutting them probably doesn’t make sense.

Positions Of Need

Pending any further cost-cutting maneuvers, the Panthers should have roughly $15.65MM of cap space to work with as free agency approaches. It’s not a ton of room, but Gettleman indicated last month that the club wouldn’t have to shop at the “dollar store” this offseason, meaning they probably won’t need to target the bargain-bin type of free agents they have during the past two years (although I would note that many of those low-cost signings worked out rather well).

The No. 1 area of concern on the Panthers roster — offensive line — hasn’t changed since last year. Tackle, specifically, needs to be upgraded, with Bell unlikely to return and right tackle Nate Chandler also not showing improvement. Following King Dunlap‘s re-upping with the Chargers on Sunday, there aren’t many options on the left side. If Michael Roos decides to hold off on retirement, I wonder if the Panthers would pay a premium to land the veteran. Alternatively, Carolina could try for Bryan Bulaga, the top right tackle available, with the intention of moving him back to the left side, the position he played in college. Or, Carolina could sign Bulaga, Doug Free, or another solid right tackle, and pursue a LT upgrade with the No. 25 pick in the draft.

If it solves its problem at tackle, Carolina could then shift its focus to receiver. Kelvin Benjamin was a revelation in his rookie season, but the club could use another weapon opposite him. Luckily, the free agent market for WRs is flush with options. Jeremy Maclin might be a little out the Panthers’ price range, but Torrey Smith could be a viable target. Moving a little further down the list, Michael Crabtree could be signed with the hopes of bounce-back season, or perhaps Denarius Moore tries to restart his career in Carolina.

Assuming that Hardy leaves for greener pastures, the Panthers will also need help at defensive end. In terms of pure skill, Carolina might not find anyone with the talent level that Hardy brings to the table, but there are certainly other options out there. Brandon Graham was solid for the Eagles in 2014, but if reports of him demanding $20MM in guarantees are true, he’d probably be too spendy for the Panthers. If the club continues its strategy of signing seemingly over-the-hill veterans, I could see them adding Osi Umenyiora, who wasn’t great as a stand-up pass-rusher with the Falcons but could succeed if returned to a 4-3 DE role, or taking on a chance on a 35-year-old Dwight Freeney.

Corner could be another area of concern, although Josh Norman and Bene Benwikere played very well, especially near the end of last season. The free agent CB market is barren, so that’s an area that will probably be addressed via the draft instead. With the release of Williams, the Panthers might also look to bring in another back to complement Jonathan Stewart, who often deals with injury concerns. I doubt they’d spend any significant money on the position, but they could bring in someone like Daniel Thomas or Jacquizz Rodgers as a insurance option.

Extension Candidates/Contract Decisions

The most pressing issue in Carolina at the moment is the future of Newton, who is signed through only 2015 thanks to the Panthers exercising his fifth-year option; he’ll be paid $14.67MM during the upcoming season. Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer reported over the weekend that the Panthers and Newton’s reps were set to meet at the combine in Indianapolis to begin discussing an extension, but noted that Newton prefers to let Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson ink out long-term deals first, setting the market for QB deals.

Newton probably won’t see the type of cash that Luck and Wilson will — rather, he’ll probably shoot for an AAV in the $20MM range. He’s already made it clear that he isn’t interested in a Colin Kaepernick-esque contract structure, so it sounds like he’ll be aiming for some relatively large guarantees. The Panthers could use the franchise tag on Newton in 2016 (at a hefty price), but I’d expect the two sides to agree to a deal at some point.

2013 Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly is probably the best inside linebacker in the league, and among the top five or 10 defensive players in the game. The Panthers have a fifth-year option on him that will keep him under contract for the 2016 season at a reasonable rate. But Carolina can now open extension talks with their 23-year-old defensive stalwart, and Kuechly should be able to top the $10MM average salary brought in by Patrick Willis, currently the top earner among inside ILBs.

Olsen will become a free agent at season’s end, at it make sense for the club to get something done with him, as well. With major departures at wide receiver, Olsen (along with Benjamin) became Newton’s primary target, hauling 84 passes for more than 1,000 and six scores. He’ll be 30 years old next month, so he’s not young, but he should still be able to secure a three- or four-year commitment, possibly in the $7-8MM per year range.

Finally, Carolina will probably need to take a look at the contract of veteran defensive end Charles Johnson before the season. The eight-year veteran is scheduled to count $20.02MM against the cap next season, the highest such figure among 4-3 defensive ends. He’s still an excellent player (PFF’s No. 11 4-3 DE), so he’s not a candidate for release, but the Panthers probably need to ask Johnson to restructure his deal, something he’s done in each of the prior two offseasons. He only has two years left on his current pact, which doesn’t leave much room for spreading out prorated bonus money. So instead of a simple restructure, Carolina might need to extend him, tacking on a few years to his contract to make the forthcoming cap hits more palatable.

Overall Outlook

To the casual fan, the Panthers are coming off a highly-successful two-year run during which they made the playoffs in both seasons. More tuned-in observers, however, realize that Carolina was extremely lucky to play in such a subpar division last season, and that there are still numerous holes on the current roster. Newton needs to be re-signed, but Gettleman and head coach Ron Rivera can’t rest until other areas on the team — tackle, receiver, defensive end — are addressed, as well.

Information from Over The Cap was used in the creation of this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Load More Posts