Minnesota Vikings News & Rumors

Vikings QB Sam Darnold Expected To Have Competitive Market, Unlikely To Return To Minnesota

By Rory Parks | at December 8, 2024 7:54 am

DEC 8: In keeping with the reports that Darnold is unlikely to return to Minnesota in 2025, ESPN’s Adam Schefter observes that the Vikings have not had any extension discussions with the resurgent passer.

DEC 1: Sam Darnold signed a one-year, $10MM contract with the Vikings this offseason with the understanding that he would operate as a bridge to a rookie quarterback should Minnesota select one early in the draft. After the Vikes drafted J.J. McCarthy with the No. 10 overall pick, it was believed that Darnold’s time atop the depth chart would be limited. However, the season-ending knee injury that McCarthy suffered in August, coupled with Darnold’s strong performance, have the veteran passer positioned to be one of the hottest commodities on the 2025 free agent market.

Thanks to Darnold’s surprisingly hot start to the current season, our Adam La Rose examined his rising free agent stock in detail on October 5. Not unlike the infamous Madden curse, the Pro Football Rumors curse bit Darnold just one day later, as the USC alum produced a poor 50.3 quarterback rating in a Week 5 victory over the Jets. Luckily for the Vikings, Darnold bounced back in a big way, posting QB ratings of at least 107.0 in five of the club’s next six contests.

Minnesota sits at 9-2 on the season and is only in second place in its division because of the Lions’ stunning 11-1 record. Although Darnold’s 21:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio is not ideal, three of those picks came in one game, and his 101.7 quarterback rating is the eighth-best mark in the league. As of the time of this writing, his 21 passing TDs are the fifth-highest total, and he is 10th in passing yards (2,717). In general, it looks as if he is finally living up to his billing at the No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 draft.

Now 27, Darnold’s resurgent effort and the Vikings’ success with him at the controls have made him perhaps the most desirable quarterback slated for free agency in March. ESPN’s Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler believe that Darnold is pricing himself out of Minnesota, and the team is comfortable with that reality (subscription required). Although a scenario in which McCarthy’s recovery takes longer than expected could tempt the Vikes to bring Darnold back, McCarthy is obviously expected to take the reins at some point, and Darnold’s price tag is likely to far exceed what the club is willing to pay given its investment and belief in McCarthy.

Dianna Russini of The Athletic also hears that Darnold’s market is going to be a competitive one (subscription required), and the relative weakness of the 2025 draft class of QBs will presumably boost his earning power even more. Of course, all of this presupposes that Darnold does not regress and that he finishes the year healthy, but Fowler anticipates the former Jet, Panther, and 49er will be in line for a middle class contract like those authorized for Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith in recent history.

In other words, a multiyear pact worth between $25MM – $35MM per year featuring $40MM – $50MM in guarantees could be a starting point in negotiations between Darnold’s camp and QB-needy clubs. Assuming that the Vikings don’t want to play in those waters, the team could look to re-sign the newly-acquired Daniel Jones to accompany McCarthy on the depth chart (though Russini is clear that the Jones addition does not impact Darnold’s future in Minnesota).