Among the dozens of NFL edge rushers scheduled to hit free agency in the middle of March, five stand out as candidates to earn more than $20MM annually. Frank Clark (Seahawks), Jadeveon Clowney (Texans), Trey Flowers (Patriots), Dee Ford (Chiefs), and DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys) have each registered enough production during their respective careers to vault themselves into the realm of the league’s highest-paid players, but will any of the quintet actually hit the open market?
Historically, NFL clubs have been reticent to allow their pass rushers to reach free agency. In 2018, both the Cowboys (Lawrence) and Lions (Ezekiel Ansah) deployed franchise tags to keep their best defenders in tow, leaving age-resistant Julius Peppers as the best edge defender still available when free agency began. The year prior, the Chargers, Cardinals, and Giants respectively kept Melvin Ingram, Chandler Jones, and Jason Pierre-Paul off the open market by using franchise tenders. And in 2016, the Broncos went ultra-conservative, utilizing the more expensive exclusive franchise tag — which doesn’t allow the player to negotiate with any other teams — on Von Miller.
Things don’t figure to change in 2019, thanks to the ongoing importance of edge rushers and the NFL’s soaring salary cap. Additionally, the five teams with the most projected 2019 cap space — the Colts, Jets, Browns, Bills, and Raiders — could all use help at defensive end/outside linebacker. Any pass rusher that gets to free agency is going to enter a market full of teams that a) have a clear need along their front four and b) have ample cash to spend.
Let’s take a look at each of the five premier pass rushers bearing down on free agency, with a specific focus on each player’s team’s salary cap situation:
Frank Clark (Seahawks): Seattle shouldn’t have any trouble retaining Clark, as it currently ranks eighth in the NFL with roughly $55MM in projected 2019 cap space. Additionally, the Seahawks don’t have any other first-rate free agents that will require new deals (assuming, as I am, that Earl Thomas has no interest in returning to Seattle next season). Guards J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker each played at least 55% of the Seahawks’ snaps last year, but middling interior offensive linemen aren’t going to break the bank, and neither are defensive tackle Shamar Stephen or running back Mike Davis. Clark, meanwhile, is discussing a new deal with the Seahawks, but he’s also open to the franchise tag.
Jadeveon Clowney (Texans): Like the Seahawks, the Texans have plenty of cap space to go around in 2019, as they rank sixth with $65MM in available funds. However, Houston does several non-Clowney players that will need new contracts. Defensive back Tyrann Mathieu is a candidate for extension after inking a one-year, $7MM pact with the Texans last offseason, while cornerback Kareem Jackson could also be back on a short contract. Houston may also need to shell out to improve an offensive line that allowed an NFL-worst 11.5% adjusted sack rate. If the Texans do tag Clowney, the two sides may have a dispute over whether he’s a defensive end ($17.143MM franchise tag) or an outside linebacker ($14.961MM).
Trey Flowers (Patriots): As Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit wrote last May, New England hasn’t used the franchise tag frequently in recent seasons. After deploying the tag in eight times from 2002-12, the Patriots have only used the tender once over the past six years (kicker Stephen Gostkowski in 2015). Instead of signing or retaining high-end players or relying on productive rookie classes, New England leads the NFL in “mid-level veteran” contracts, according to Justis Mosqueda of Optimum Scouting, who defines that term as a veteran with a cap charge between $1MM and $6MM. Flowers may be the perfect Patriot, but it’s unclear if New England is willing to pay him as such, or instead wait for the market to dictate his price.
Dee Ford (Chiefs): His AFC Championship Game blunder aside, the 27-year-old Ford posted the best season of his career in 2019. He earned the NFL’s top pass-rushing grade from Pro Football Focus, and finished second only to Aaron Donald in total pressures generated. While we’ve seen conflicting reports as to whether the Chiefs are open to using the franchise tag on Ford, he seems like the optimal candidate for the tender. Ford has been up-and-down throughout his career, as he’s managed fewer than four sacks in three of his five professional campaigns, so a one-year deal could protect Kansas City if Ford’s performance dovetails again.
DeMarcus Lawrence (Cowboys): The Cowboys have finally removed themselves from salary cap hell, but don’t let their $55MM in space fool you. Dallas has multiple stars — including Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Byron Jones, and Jaylon Smith — up for extension over the next year-plus, so the club can’t simply run through its cash this offseason. Lawrence, if tagged, would be on his second consecutive franchise tender, meaning his salary would increase by 20% to $20.572MM.
So what do you think? Will any of these pass rushers reach actually reach free agency? Choose as many edge defenders as you like in the multiple choice poll below (link for app users):
