Buffalo Bills News & Rumors

Minor NFL Transactions: 3/13/23

Today’s minor moves:

Buffalo Bills

Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns

Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers

Kansas City Chiefs

New York Giants

New York Jets

Philadelphia Eagles

 

Nixon was a first-team All-Pro returner for the Packers this year. He’s signed to a new one-year deal with a maximum value of $6MM, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network.

Wharton’s new one-year deal is reportedly worth $2.03MM, according to Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2. The contract has a guaranteed amount of $850,000 consisting of a $500,000 signing bonus and $350,000 of the base salary (worth $1.01MM total).

Bills Re-Sign P Sam Martin

The Bills were left scrambling for a new punter last summer, and turned to veteran Sam Martin for the 2o22 season. His time in Buffalo will be continuing, as he and the team have agreed to terms on a three-year contract with a maximum value of $7.5MM, per NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo (Twitter link). A team announcement has confirmed the move.

Garafolo adds that the deal includes $4.115MM in guaranteed money, a sign of his success in his debut campaign with the Bills. Buffalo seemed to have their punting situation secured for at least the next few years when they drafted Matt Araiza, his legal situation led to the team moving on from him in August.

That left the Bills short on options as they approached the start of the regular season, but the Broncos’ decision to release Martin for financial reasons gave the two parties a mutual need. Days after being let go by Denver, he inked a deal to join Buffalo, his third career team. The 33-year-old had previously played for the Lions before his two-year tenure in the Mile High City.

Martin set the second-highest mark of his career in punting average (47.7) this season, one in which he was needed much less often than in all but one of his prior campaigns. His success in giving the team consistency in the punting game has obviously sat well, and earned Martin the second most lucrative contract of his career.

The Bills also announced on Monday that they have re-signed linebacker Tyler Matakevich on a one-year deal. The 30-year-old has spent the past three seasons in Buffalo, playing a key role on special teams. He and Martin will be in line to continue their respective duties in 2023 as the Bills look to secure valued contributors from the past season ahead of this week’s opening of free agency.

Bills To Sign G Connor McGovern

Expected to make an effort to upgrade their offensive line this offseason, the Bills are signing Connor McGovern. This is the former Cowboys guard, the younger of the NFL’s two Connor McGoverns, Mike Garafolo of NFL.com tweets.

It is a three-year deal worth $23MM, Garafolo adds. McGovern, who spent his contract year primarily working as Dallas’ left guard, will be expected to commandeer a Buffalo starting spot inside.

Pro Football Focus ranked the Bills’ offensive line 23rd last season, one that ended with an ugly home divisional-round loss to the Bengals. The team has Rodger Saffold unsigned from last year’s starting lineup. The ex-Rams and Titans blocker stepped in as a Bills guard starter in 2022. Buffalo also has Ryan Bates under contract, after matching a Bears RFA offer sheet last year. But McGovern is tied to starter-level money. It should be expected he will work as a first-stringer up front to help the AFC East champions.

McGovern, 25, started 29 games for the Cowboys from 2020-22. An injury kept the former third-round pick off the field as a rookie, and he did not secure a Week 1 starting gig until last season. But McGovern was viewed as having the lead on Tyler Smith for Dallas’ left guard spot — prior to Tyron Smith‘s avulsion fracture that changed the team’s O-line plans — in training camp. McGovern also held off Jason Peters for the Cowboys’ left guard gig, starting 15 games.

PFF did not view McGovern as especially sound in his contract campaign, slotting him outside the top 60 at guard. But the Bills were sold on the Penn State product — on a midlevel deal, at least. McGovern joins Bates, Mitch Morse and Dion Dawkins as veteran-contract players on Buffalo’s front, though none of these blockers is tied to top-five money at their respective position.

The Cowboys will lose an interior starter for the second straight year, with McGovern following Connor Williams to the AFC East. Dallas has higher priorities, however, and has Zack Martin signed to an upper-echelon guard deal. The team is still planning to keep both Tyron Smith and Terence Steele alongside Tyler Smith. It will be interesting to see if Dallas moves one of these blockers to guard to ensure each starts in 2023.

NFL Restructures: Watson, Gage, Edwards, Hines

As expected, the Browns have restructured the contract of quarterback Deshaun Watson, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport (Twitter link). The move saves Cleveland just under $36MM in cap space, and avoids Watson breaking the NFL record for the highest cap hit in a single season (he was due to count for $54.9MM in 2023).

As was recently noted, the Browns did not require Watson’s permission to convert base salary into signing bonus, though he was reportedly open to the idea. His historic, fully-guaranteed pact signed last offseason upon his acquisition from the Texans was always seen as a financial burden beginning in 2023 due to its structure. While this move thus comes as no surprise (and will, of course, affect his cap hits in future years), it will give Cleveland the spending power needed to make at least one or two notable additions in free agency this week.

Here are some other recent contract restructures, as teams look to carve out much-needed cap space for the coming free agent frenzy:

  • Buccaneers receiver Russell Gage took a slight pay cut for this year to remain in Tampa Bay. Per Rapoport (on Twitter), the 27-year-old agreed to lower his salary from $10MM to $7MM – the latter figure now being fully guaranteed – with incentives in place to earn it back. After a slew of recent cost-cutting moves and financial maneuvering, Tampa Bay is now slightly under the cap ceiling in time for the start of the new league year.
  • Backup Ravens running back Gus Edwards has been seen by many as a potential cut or trade candidate, as the team looks to add financial wiggle room. He will remain in the fold for the coming season, however. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that the 27-year-old has agreed to drop his base salary (set to be $4.4MM) by roughly $1MM (Twitter link). He, too will have the chance to make back that amount and more if he hits the new incentives in place in his deal. Edwards is entering the final year of his contract.
  • The Bills will have Nyheim Hines in the backfield at a different cap number than he was originally scheduled for. Rapoport’s colleague Mike Garafolo tweets that Hines is re-working his contract to move part of his base salary into a signing bonus. The midseason trade acquisition was due a base salary of $4.45MM in 2023, and set to carry a cap hit of $4.79MM. Garafolo notes that Hines will have the chance, via incentives, to earn more than the latter figure this season. He is on the books through 2024.

Bills, LB Matt Milano Agree To Extension

The Bills have inked linebacker Matt Milano to a two-year extension that will keep Milano under club control through 2026, as Adam Schefter of ESPN.com reports (via Twitter). The transaction will create $6MM of salary cap relief for cap-strapped Buffalo, with Aaron Wilson of KPRC2 reporting that Milano is due to earn $14MM per year over the 2025-26 seasons (Twitter link).

Milano, whom the Bills signed to a four-year, $44MM contract in March 2021, has given the club a good return on its investment. He and Tremaine Edmunds have combined to form one of the league’s top ILB duos, with Milano racking up 86 tackles and three sacks in 2021 en route to a solid 70.1 overall grade from Pro Football Focus.

The 2017 fifth-rounder hit another gear in 2022, notching 99 total tackles and three interceptions — including one pick-six — and earning First-Team All-Pro acclaim for his efforts. He bumped up his PFF grade to 73.2, thanks in large part to his improved work in pass coverage.

Edmunds, whom PFR recently ranked as the ninth-best free agent in this year’s class, is reportedly set to hit the open market despite some discussions about a new contract with the Bills. Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com hears that, even in a crowded linebacker market, Edmunds could be in line for a $20MM/year contract, and he confirms that Edmunds is unlikely to remain in upstate New York even if he does not quite hit his asking price (subscription required).

Buffalo, which already restructured Milano’s contract last offseason for cap purposes, views the 28-year-old as a star at his position, and his presence is one reason why the club is comfortable with letting Edmunds walk. In addition to Edmunds, though, the Bills’ could lose another key member of its top-six defense in safety Jordan Poyer, who should find a robust market for his services.

Milano, at least, will be around for the foreseeable future as GM Brandon Beane tries to retool around him.

Bills, Bengals, Jets Interested In RB Jamaal Williams

Running back Jamaal Williams would like to return to the Lions, and the team would like to have him back. However, it appears that Detroit will have competition for Williams’ services.

Per Tyler Dunne of GoLongTD.com, the Bills, Bengals, and Jets are all interested in Williams, who will turn 28 in April and who is due to hit the free agent market on the heels of a 2022 campaign in which he led the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns (Twitter link). His YPC rate of 4.1 was solid, if unspectacular, and he did not make much of an impact in the passing game (12 catches for 73 yards). Backfield mate D’Andre Swift is the more dynamic receiver, and the Lions utilized him accordingly.

Even if he is not an every-down player, Williams can be a quality addition to just about any rushing attack, particularly if he is deployed in conjunction with a shiftier, outside-the-tackles player. As Dunne observes (via Twitter), the Bills have invested a great deal of draft capital in the RB position in recent years, selecting Devin Singletary (third round, 2019), Zack Moss (third round, 2020), and James Cook (second round, 2022). Moss, though, was traded to the Colts in a deadline deal that brought fellow RB Nyheim Hines to Buffalo, and Singletary is, like Williams, days away from free agency.

After a promising rookie season, Cook could be poised to take on more of a workload in 2023, and the Bills should make more use of Hines, who saw just 66 offensive snaps in nine games with the club. Williams’ physical presence and abilities in short-yardage and goal-line situations would nicely complement the skillsets of Cook and Hines, but with limited cap space, Buffalo may not be able to afford a player like Williams that would represent more of a luxury than a need.

The Jets hope to have Breece Hall back at the top of their RB dept chart in 2023, and while Hall expects to be ready for Week 1 after his terrific debut campaign was cut short by an ACL tear, a proven performer like Williams would allow Gang Green to ease Hall back into action. New York does have 2022 UDFA Zonovan Knight and 2021 fourth-rounder Michael Carter under contract, though both players posted a disappointing 3.5 yards-per-carry average last season.

Meanwhile, the Bengals’ reported interest is notable in light of recent reports suggesting that Joe Mixon‘s days in Cincinnati could be numbered. Mixon has not been particularly impressive from a YPC standpoint since 2018, and the team could save over $7MM by releasing him. However, with the Bengals eyeing another deep postseason run in 2023, it is perhaps more likely that Williams would take over Samaje Perine‘s role as Mixon’s running mate should Cincinnati go that route.

Spotrac estimates that Williams can command a two-year contract worth a little over $4MM per year.

Latest On Odell Beckham Jr.

9:05pm: In the aftermath of Beckham’s workout, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reports that the three-time Pro Bowler is seeking a deal worth up to $20MM per season, as was the case at one point during the 2022 campaign. His injury absence makes that ask one which is highly unlikely to be met, though the attendance at yesterday’s showing points to a number of suitors still being keenly interested in signing him.

1:38pm: The rare free agent to skip a season and still be expected to generate extensive interest on the following year’s market, Odell Beckham Jr. is believed to be fully recovered from the ACL tear that altered his 2022 hopes.

Beckham is now 100%, according to NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. He attempted to showcase that form in a workout attended by nearly half the league. OBJ did not work out for teams during his late-season push to land a multiyear deal — evidently contingent upon a playoff-only role with a contender last season — but he attracted a nice audience Friday.

Twelve to 14 teams attended the workout, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com notes. Representatives from the 49ers, Bills, Browns, Cardinals, Chiefs, Giants, Jets, Panthers, Patriots, Rams, Ravens and Vikings were at the event, CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones notes (Twitter links). Perhaps the most notable Beckham suitor, the Cowboys, were not believed to be one of the teams observing Beckham’s form.

The Cowboys certainly should not be described as out of the Beckham mix, and the Dallas Morning News’ Calvin Watkins notes the team remains comfortable signing the eight-year veteran if his health and price demands are right (Twitter link). They are widely expected to revisit the pursuit they scrapped in December. The Rams and Giants are also among the teams expected to go after OBJ again. Sean McVay confirmed, via ESPN’s Sarah Barshop, the Rams are “absolutely” monitoring their former receiver. Before falling out of contention, the Rams were viewed as the favorites to land him last year. But Beckham’s knee ended up needing more time to heal.

Beckham, 30, missing last season means he can sign with a team at any point. Though, every unrestricted free agent wideout can begin talking to teams at 3pm CT Monday, when the legal tampering period starts. The former Giants, Browns and Rams pass catcher is now nearly 13 months removed from his second ACL tear. He returned to action 10 months after his first and ended up making an impact for the Rams, a stretch that concluded with a Super Bowl LVI touchdown.

This year’s iffy wide receiver market should help Beckham’s value, but because of his age and the injury-induced full-season absence, this stands to be one of the more unusual free agencies for a player in recent memory.

Restructure Details: Bolts, Bucs, Bills, Jets

Teams continue to be aggressive in creating cap space ahead of Wednesday’s start to the 2023 league year, when franchises must be in compliance with the new $224.8MM salary cap. Here are the latest moves teams made to get there:

  • Reasonable Chargers activity in free agency should be expected. The team that began the week well over the cap has now created more than $40MM in space over the past couple of days. Following the moves to restructure Keenan Allen and Mike Williams‘ contracts, Field Yates of ESPN.com tweets the team created $25.99MM by tweaking Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack‘s deals. Mack’s 2023 cap number drops by $10.8MM, while OverTheCap’s Jason Fitzgerald adds Bosa’s drops by $15.2MM. Bosa’s 2024 number ballooned to $36.6MM because of the move. That will, then, necessitate more maneuvering down the line. The Bosa, Mack, Allen and Williams moves have created a total of $40.37MM in space, Lindsey Thiry of ESPN.com tweets. They are now more than $19MM under the cap.
  • In completing four restructures, the Buccaneers have now created more than $44MM in cap space. They redid the deals of Vita Vea, Chris Godwin, Ryan Jensen and Carlton Davis, Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times reports. The Bucs have moved to being barely $5MM over the cap, after beginning March at nearly $60MM north of the salary ceiling. Cuts of Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate and Donovan Smith have helped the team along the way as well. That said, Fournette and Brate cannot be released until after the start of the league year, Greg Auman of Fox Sports notes (on Twitter). The Bucs being unable to realize those savings until after 3pm Wednesday will force them to find a few other ways to create that space.
  • The Jets adjusted the deals of Laken Tomlinson, D.J. Reed and Tyler Conklin — all free agency additions from 2022 — to create $15.2MM in cap space, Yates tweets. Still working to land Aaron Rodgers, the Jets are now $11.5MM under the cap.
  • The Raiders are among the leaders in cap space, but Yates tweets they adjusted Maxx Crosby‘s deal to create $7.5MM in additional funds. Las Vegas holds more than $43MM in cap space, sitting third overall ahead of free agency.
  • Bills defensive tackle Tim Settle agreed to a $600K pay cut for 2023, Yates adds (on Twitter). The 2022 free agency addition still has $2.1MM in guaranteed money for 2023, with the Buffalo News’ Ryan O’Halloran adding Settle can earn up to $4.41MM this year via incentives. The Bills are moving closer to the deadline with a lot of work left ahead; they are more than $19MM over the cap.
  • The Vikings and swing backup O-lineman Chris Reed agreed to a renegotiated deal that trims his cap number by around $1MM, per Yates. Minnesota still has work to do ahead of the cap-compliance deadline, sitting more than $7MM over the cap.

2023 Top 50 NFL Free Agents

Super Bowl LVII provided the latest example of the value free agency can bring. The Chiefs revamped their receiving corps on last year’s market, while the Eagles acquired three defensive starters — including sack leader Haason Reddick. The Jaguars also used a March 2022 splurge to ignite their surprising surge to the divisional round.

Beginning with the legal tampering period, which starts at 3pm CT on Monday, and continuing with the official start to free agency (3pm Wednesday), the next several days represent a highlight on the NFL calendar. Which teams will change their 2023 outlooks for the better next week?

While the 2023 free agent class has absorbed its share of body blows and indeed lacks depth at certain spots, a few positions will bring waves of starter-level talent. Right tackle will invite some big-money decisions, and the safety and off-ball linebacker positions feature considerable depth. A few ascending talents and hidden gems appear in this class as well.

This list ranks free agents by earning potential. In terms of accomplishments, Bobby Wagner, Fletcher Cox and Lavonte David would lap most of the players included here. With each defender going into his age-33 season, however, the standouts’ ability to command big contracts is certainly not what it once was.

In terms of possible destinations, not every team is represented equally. Some teams will bring more needs and cap space into this year’s marketplace than others. With some help from Adam La Rose, here is this year’s PFR top 50 free agents list, along with potential landing spots for each player.

1. Orlando Brown Jr., T. Age in Week 1: 27

As the 49ers did two years ago with Trent Williams, the Chiefs will let Brown hit the market. This could end up benefiting the veteran tackle, who was offered a deal with an average annual value north of Williams’ tackle-record $23MM per year before last July’s franchise tag deadline. Citing insufficient guarantees, Brown turned it down. Kansas City’s offer did contain a bloated final year to bump up the AAV to $23.1MM, but will Brown – a quality left tackle but not a top-shelf option at the position – do as well this year? He will soon find out.

Brown has now made four Pro Bowls and carries positional versatility that would intrigue were he open to a return to right tackle, which by all accounts he is not. The 363-pound blocker can struggle against speed-rusher types, but he is set to be the rare accomplished left tackle in his prime to hit the market. The Chiefs sent a package including a first-round pick to the Ravens for Brown, whose bet on himself led to a $16.6MM tag and an open market. The bidding will run high, though it might not reach the places the Williams pursuit did in 2021.

The Chiefs’ exclusive negotiating rights with Brown end March 13; they have had nearly two years to complete a deal. The market will determine if the league views the sixth-year blocker as an elite-level left tackle or merely a good one. Then again, bidding wars drive up the prices for O-linemen on the market. O-line salary records have fallen four times (Williams, Corey Linsley, Joe Thuney, Brandon Scherff) in free agency since 2021. This foray could give Brown the guaranteed money he seeks, and it puts the Chiefs at risk of seeing their two-year left tackle depart. The Ravens also passed on this payment back in 2021, in part because they already had Ronnie Stanley on the payroll.

The defending champions have Brown and right tackle Andrew Wylie eligible for free agency; some of their leftover funds from the Tyreek Hill trade went to Brown’s tag. Although some among the Chiefs were frustrated Brown passed on last year’s offer, the team will be hurting at a premium position if he walks. Given the importance the blindside position carries, fewer teams are in need compared to right tackle. The Titans losing Taylor Lewan and continuing to clear cap space could point to a run at Brown, though the team has a few needs up front. The Jets likely have needs at both tackle spots. Would the Bears relocate Braxton Jones to the right side? Ryan Poles was with the Chiefs when they traded for Brown, and the Bears could outmuscle anyone for cap space.

Best fits: Titans, Chiefs, Commanders

2. Mike McGlinchey, T. Age in Week 1: 28

Teams in need of right tackles will participate in one of the more interesting markets in recent memory. Above-average-to-good offensive linemen do well in free agency annually, and this year will send three experienced right tackles in their prime to the market. A five-year starter in San Francisco and former top-10 pick, McGlinchey has a good case as the best of this lot. The five-year vet’s run-blocking craft eclipses his pass-protection chops exiting Year 5, but he will walk into a competitive market. The former Notre Dame left tackle should have a lucrative deal in place during next week’s legal tampering period.

Although mutual interest existed regarding a second 49ers-McGlinchey agreement, John Lynch acknowledged the only viable path for McGlinchey to stay in San Francisco would be his market underwhelming. That seems unlikely, so right tackle-seeking teams – and there are a handful – will jockey for the sixth-year veteran. McGlinchey turned 28 in January, making this his obvious window to cash in. He rated fifth in ESPN’s run block win rate stat last season, bouncing back from the quadriceps injury that ended his 2021 season.

There is no shortage of Kyle Shanahan– or Sean McVay-influenced schemes around the league. The Bears employ Luke Getsy as their play-caller; Getsy worked for Shanahan/McVay tree branch Matt LaFleur, and the Bears’ cap space dwarfs every other team’s. After fielding a shaky O-line (on a team full of substandard position groups), Chicago needs a better idea of Justin Fields’ trajectory. Outbidding the field for the top right tackle available is a good start. The Patriots want a right tackle – on a line without a big contract presently – and the Raiders might have a say here as well. In need at multiple O-line spots, Las Vegas will have cash as well if it passes on a big QB investment.

Best fits: Bears, Patriots, Raiders

3. Jawann Taylor, T. Age in Week 1: 26

As expected, the Jaguars took Evan Engram off the market via the franchise tag. The tight end tag being $7MM cheaper than the $18.2MM offensive lineman tag always pointed Taylor toward free agency, and after never missing a start in four Duval County seasons, Taylor will be tough for the Jags to retain. They already drafted Walker Little in the 2021 second round, and no team that is currently paying a left tackle top-10 money (Cam Robinson is seventh) has a top-10 right tackle contract on the books. Taylor is expected to land at least a top-10 right tackle deal, with a $17MM-AAV figure being floated. That would place the former Florida Gator in the top five at the position, depending on how McGlinchey fares next week.

Taylor resembles the genre of player that usually populates the top of a position’s free agency market: a dependable performer who checks in below the top tier at his job. Taylor enjoyed his strongest year in his platform campaign. The former second-round pick dropped his hold count from 11 in 2021 to two in 2022. While PFF charged Taylor with five sacks allowed, Football Outsiders measured his blown-block rate at a career-low 1.3%. Offering a disparate skillset compared to McGlinchey, Taylor has fared better as a pass protector than in the run game. PFF slotted him as a top-10 pass protector among right tackles but viewed him as a dismal run-blocker.

The Jags have presumably made Taylor an offer, but other teams will probably top it. The Dolphins gave Terron Armstead a five-year, $75MM deal in 2022 but have needed a right tackle ever since Ja’Wuan James’ 2019 exit. They were forced to start in-season pickup Brandon Shell for much of the year and have cleared more than $45MM in cap space over the past two days. The team just picked up Tua Tagovailoa‘s fifth-year option, and the league’s lone southpaw starting QB needs better blindside protection after a season in which he suffered at least two concussions. Overspending on O-linemen is not the Patriots’ M.O., but they have a need at right tackle and do not have big dollars devoted to quarterback or any position up front. New England is on the hunt for a right tackle upgrade, and the team’s 2021 free agency showed it would spend when it deemed expenditures necessary.

Best fits: Dolphins, Patriots, Jaguars

4. Jimmy Garoppolo, QB. Age in Week 1: 31

The quarterback market cleared up this week, seeing Geno Smith and Daniel Jones extended and Derek Carr’s lengthy street free agency stretch end with $70MM in practical guarantees. Garoppolo’s injury history will affect his value, but teams kind of make it a priority to staff this position. The former Super Bowl starter is in his prime and on the market for the first time. How high this market goes will depend on what the Raiders want and what Aaron Rodgers decides.

The 49ers’ 12-game win streak that included Brock Purdy’s stunning displays began with Garoppolo at the controls. Guiding San Francisco to four straight wins, Garoppolo was at or close to his best when he suffered a broken foot in Week 13. He sported a 7-0 TD-INT ratio during that win streak and closed the season 16th in QBR. He would have walked into a better market had the injury not occurred; the setback came after a string of health issues. He tore an ACL in 2018, missed 10 games in 2020 after an ankle sprain and was significantly limited by the end of the 2021 slate due to a three-injury season. Garoppolo’s March 2022 shoulder surgery hijacked his trade market.

Ideally for Garoppolo, Rodgers returns to Green Bay or retires. While that is looking unlikelier by the day, it would put the Jets in a desperate position following Carr’s decision. The Raiders represent the other wild card. Garoppolo would slide into Josh McDaniels’ system seamlessly, given the parties’ three-plus years together in New England. The Raiders have operated a bit more stealthily compared to the Jets; they have been connected to Rodgers, Garoppolo and rolling with a rookie. Plan C here would be a tough sell given the presences of 30-year-old skill-position players Davante Adams and Darren Waller, but Las Vegas’ plans cloud Garoppolo’s market. If the Raiders pass and Rodgers chooses the Jets, Garoppolo’s earning power could drop.

McDaniels not fancying a Garoppolo reunion opens the door for the Texans, who hired ex-49ers pass-game coordinator Bobby Slowik as OC, and others. Houston’s situation may not appeal to Garoppolo, but Slowik and Nick Caserio being in Houston make this connection too clear to ignore. The Buccaneers and Commanders are in win-now positions but are giving indications they do not want to spend much at QB. The Commanders were deep in talks for the then-49ers QB last year, however. Garoppolo will test those squads, along with the Falcons, who are entering Year 3 of the Terry FontenotArthur Smith regime. The Panthers’ acquisition of the No. 1 pick likely takes them out of the running, and Carolina not being in the mix could also affect how high the Garoppolo price goes.

Bottom line, there should be enough teams interested in staffing their 2023 QB1 spots that the best free agent option should do OK no matter what happens with Rodgers.

Best fits: Raiders, Texans, Commanders

5. Jamel Dean, CB. Age in Week 1: 26

The Buccaneers retained Carlton Davis last year, but their dire cap situation should force a Dean departure. Dean’s age/performance combination should make him this year’s top cornerback available. With corner a position of need for many teams, the former third-round pick stands to do very well. Dean has only been a full-time starter in one season, however, seeing his defensive snap share jump from 67% in 2021 to 90% last season.

Excelling in press coverage, Dean played a major role for the 2020 Super Bowl champion Bucs iteration and overtook fellow free agent Sean Murphy-Bunting last year. Dean did perform better in 2021 compared to 2022, allowing no touchdowns and limiting QBs to a collective 50.0 passer rating; those numbers shot up to four and 86.0 last season. Still, PFF rated Dean as last year’s 10th-best corner. J.C. Jackson did not break into the top five among corners upon hitting the market last year; Dean should not be expected to do so, either. But many teams will be interested.

The Patriots have paid up for a corner previously, in Stephon Gilmore (2017), but Jonathan Jones – forced to primarily play a boundary role in 2022 – wants to re-sign and will be far cheaper than Dean. The Falcons need help opposite AJ Terrell and trail only the Bears in cap space. Although a Terrell payment is coming, it can be tabled to 2024 due to the fifth-year option. The Dolphins are clearing cap space and now have a corner need, with Byron Jones no longer with the team after his missed season.

Best fits: Dolphins, Falcons, Patriots

6. Jessie Bates, S. Age in Week 1: 26

Bates stands to be one of this free agency crop’s safest bets, combining extensive experience – the final two years as a pillar for a championship threat – with a host of prime years remaining. Beginning his career at 21, the Wake Forest product has started 79 games and anchored the Bengals’ secondary for most of his tenure. The Bengals did not tag Bates for a second time, passing on a $15.5MM price. With the team planning to let Bates test the market, it looks like the sixth-year defender will leave Cincinnati.

The Bengals and Bates went through two offseasons of negotiations, ending in the 2022 tag. The Bengals have some big payments to make at higher-profile positions. Safety does not qualify as such, but Bates has been a cornerstone in Lou Anarumo’s defense and will be handsomely rewarded. Bates finished as Pro Football Focus’ No. 1 overall safety in 2020 and, after a shakier 2021 in which he admitted his contract situation affected his play, Bates came through with impact plays in the postseason. He graded as a top-25 safety, via PFF, in 2022.

Safety is one of this year’s deeper positions in free agency. Of the top 10 safety contracts, however, only one went to a free agent (Marcus Williams in 2022). Bates should be expected to join the Ravens defender, who signed for $14MM per year. It will be interesting if he can climb into the top five at the position; Justin Simmons’ $15.25MM-AAV accord sits fifth. Bates should be expected to approach or eclipse that, though moving to the Derwin JamesMinkah Fitzpatrick tier will be more difficult. Still, after the Bengals offered Bates less than $17MM guaranteed last summer, he should depart for more guaranteed money.

The Browns are interested in Bates, who will cost more than John Johnson cost Cleveland two years ago (three years, $33.75MM). Clear of the record-setting Matt Ryan dead-money hit, the Falcons have cash to spend and a Terry FontenotArthur Smith regime entering Year 3. The Falcons need to make progress, and they do not have much in the way of talent or costs at safety. The team has not featured much here since the Keanu NealRicardo Allen tandem splintered. Bates would be a way to remedy that.

Team fits: Falcons, Browns, Raiders

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LB Rumors: Wagner, David, Bills, Al-Shaair

The Seahawks may be interested in bringing back Bobby Wagner. John Schneider and Pete Carroll spoke with the future Hall of Fame linebacker recently, according to the GM. Schneider said (via the Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta) the team will keep in contact with Wagner during his free agency. The Seahawks shed Wagner’s pricey deal from their payroll last year, but with the decorated ex-Seattle defender not in position to command a lucrative long-term deal ahead of his age-33 season, a reunion would make a bit more sense. The team has also rebounded quicker than most expected post-Wagner and Russell Wilson, reaching the playoffs. Wagner is believed to be eyeing a contender, having asked for his Rams release. Pro Football Focus rated Wagner as the NFL’s top off-ball linebacker last season, which was also Wagner’s ninth straight first- or second-team All-Pro campaign.

Here is the latest from the league’s linebacker scene:

  • Wagner and Lavonte David will both be available on the market. David is not planning to re-sign with the Buccaneers ahead of free agency, Ian Rapoport of NFL.com tweets. If Tampa Bay wants its 10-year starter back, it will need to outbid others to secure such a deal. The Bucs managed to bring back David (and every other in-house free agent of consequence) in 2021, agreeing to a two-year deal. After the standout defender played out that contract, he joins Wagner in being a UFA linebacker ahead of an age-33 season. The Bucs remain in the league’s worst cap shape, so they will have a tough time bringing back David, who stands to command another short-term accord.
  • 49ers linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair will have a clear connection to the Texans, with DeMeco Ryans now their head coach. The Texans also hired ex-49ers assistant Chris Kiffin as their linebackers coach. Kiffin is a big fan of Al-Shaair, per The Athletic’s Matt Barrows, who notes Ryans is probably quite high on the free agent-to-be as well (subscription required). The 49ers have Fred Warner locked into a top-market contract and inked Dre Greenlaw to a midlevel extension last year. They are bracing to lose Al-Shaair, who figures to generate interest from the Ryans-led team.
  • Bills GM Brandon Beane said the team has discussed a new deal with Tremaine Edmunds, the biggest fish in a deep off-ball linebacker pond this year. But Edmunds’ comments last month still point to him reaching free agency to listen to other teams’ offers. Although this is a crowded market, Edmunds should still expect to do well in his first free agency foray.
  • The FalconsLorenzo Carter two-year deal carries a base value of $9MM, Field Yates of ESPN.com tweets. The ex-Giant will earn $5.25MM guaranteed on his second Falcons contract, Michael Rothstein of ESPN.com adds (via Twitter). He will carry a $5.25MM cap hit in 2023, and Yates adds an additional $1MM will be available via incentives.