With the Saints making their post-Super Bowl Kellen Moore hire official, the NFL’s 2025 HC carousel has stopped. Nearly a fourth of the league has now changed coaches. Who fared the best with their hire?
Starting in Chicago makes sense, as the Bears convinced picky candidate Ben Johnson to sign on. Johnson was squarely on the Jaguars and Raiders’ radars, to the point it is safe to assume the three-year Lions OC was the favorite for both AFC teams. Johnson expressed concern about the Jaguars’ then-Trent Baalke-centered front office setup, and the Raiders could not entice the highly valued play-caller with a rumored big offer.
The Bears are believed to be giving Johnson a $13MM-per-year deal — more than twice Matt Eberflus‘ salary — to develop Caleb Williams after an uneven rookie season. After Johnson played the lead role in reviving Jared Goff‘s career and turning the Lions’ offense into a dominant attack, this is the most anticipated Bears hire in decades. Johnson will work with holdover GM Ryan Poles, who is expected to receive an extension, and team president Kevin Warren.
As this marks a third straight instance of the Bears drafting a first-round quarterback then firing their HC one season into that player’s career, the Patriots are in the same boat. They jettisoned Jerod Mayo one year into Drake Maye‘s career, capping a tough year for Robert Kraft, who passed on a head coaching search in 2024 due to having identified Mayo as Bill Belichick‘s long-term successor years ago. Kraft’s initial plan was for Belichick to coach through the 2024 season, giving Mayo more on-the-job training. But the Pats’ 4-13 2023 record scuttled that aim. After Belichick’s firing, Mayo did not prove ready — in the eyes of Kraft and most other observers.
Enter Mike Vrabel, who will make his return to Foxborough 16 years after being included in the Matt Cassel tag-and-trade transaction. The 2021 NFL Coach of the Year made sense as an option in 2024, when the Pats had a vacancy, but the team had inserted language in Mayo’s contract naming him the HC-in-waiting. New England has Vrabel set up to have the final say moving forward, though both he and de facto GM Eliot Wolf will report to Kraft. Vrabel was viewed as having overachieved in Tennessee, leading the Titans to their first AFC championship game since 2002 and following that up with two more playoff berths — including a No. 1 seed in 2021.
The Jaguars enjoyed a much more complicated route to complete its HC hire. After favorite Liam Coen initially rejected a second interview, Shad Khan fired Baalke — who was again viewed as a hindrance in a coaching search — and conducted stealth negotiations with Coen to reconsider. He ultimately did, and despite the one-and-done Buccaneers OC not having worked for the same team in back-to-back years since a three-season Rams tenure that ended in 2020, he is believed to be tied to a Johnson-level contract and will effectively pick the next Jaguars GM.
This is quite the coup for Coen, after he helped Baker Mayfield to a 41-touchdown pass season, and the exit — after Coen had agreed on a Bucs extension — certainly ruffled feathers in Tampa. But the Jags were desperate for an offense-minded coach to boost Trevor Lawrence, whom the team gave a $55MM-per-year extension ahead of a 4-13 season.
The Raiders pivoted to Pete Carroll, who is set to become the oldest HC in NFL history. Carroll, who will turn 74 in September, profiles as a short-term option. The Raiders gave the former Seahawks Super Bowl-winning leader a three-year deal, which is shorter than the typical HC contract. Carroll will work with powerful minority owner Tom Brady in aiming to turn the Raiders around. The Raiders have gone through four HCs and four GMs (John Spytek the latest) this decade, and they will hope Carroll can calm things down. Carroll was linked to conducting his interviews with a potential successor in mind. The team, however, hired 61-year-old OC Chip Kelly and kept Josh McDaniels‘ DC choice (Patrick Graham); this points to Carroll’s successor not yet being with the team.
Like Vrabel, Aaron Glenn is returning to the team with which his playing career is best identified. The former Jets first-round CB is being given more power than Robert Saleh held, being set to report to ownership. Woody Johnson went so far as to label GM Darren Mougey as Glenn’s sidekick, illustrating both a tremendous opportunity for Glenn and the state of a Jets organization that had trouble attracting candidates (Vrabel and Johnson among them) after a turbulent year.
Glenn, who comes over after elevating the Lions into a top-10 defense despite Aidan Hutchinson‘s injury, is already making his voice heard. Aaron Rodgers is not expected back, with Glenn and Mougey believed to have pressed the QB on ditching his Pat McAfee Show segments in an effort to focus on football. After two years of the Jets catering to Rodgers, they are in the hunt for a new passer — one Glenn will have a significant say in identifying.
Prior to his Cowboys meetings, Brian Schottenheimer had not conducted a head coaching interview since PFR launched in 2014. The second-generation NFL coach has made the stunning leap from off-radar candidate, who had been Mike McCarthy‘s non-play-calling OC, to Jerry Jones‘ next sideline leader. The Cowboys again conducted a strange HC change, waiting a week to ditch McCarthy — after term length proved a negotiating sticking point — before being tied to Deion Sanders, who never officially interviewed.
Schottenheimer beat out three candidates, as Dallas’ past three HC changes have now featured an interim promotion (Jason Garrett), a two-candidate pool (McCarthy) and now an off-grid option. Schottenheimer has, however, been a four-time NFL OC, dating back to 2006. He was in place for some strong Russell Wilson Seahawks showings, albeit having been fired from that post after three seasons.
The Saints saw McCarthy, Joe Brady and Kliff Kingsbury bow out, as their perennially bad cap situation — one featuring an onerous Derek Carr contract — certainly may have deterred some candidates. But Moore stuck with the team, agreeing to terms despite Super Bowl LIX having raised his stock considerably. The three-time OC will call plays in New Orleans, which will aim to find a post-Carr answer during Moore’s tenure.
Although the new Saints HC’s staff has yet to take shape, Moore will aim to elevate New Orleans after four straight non-playoff seasons. He comes to Louisiana after helming an Eagles offense that peaked at the right time, as the team overpowered the Commanders and Chiefs to claim the championship.
Which teams did the best (and worst) this year? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the 2025 HC carousel in the comments section.
Yes Pete Carroll is a great coach, but the Raiders have no franchise QB. My vote is the Pats with Vrabel as he has Drake May as his QB 1
The questions not, who will have the most success, it’s who made the best HC hire. Carroll is the only one with a superbowl ring…
So, apparently if a HC as a SB ring, he automatically gets one for the team he joins later?
A 73 yr old HC is never a ‘best HC’ selection. He is going there to basically kill time until he retires, how long do you think the ‘culture’ he sets is over with once he retires (or has health issues)?
Carroll doesn’t appear old or in bad health, and the competitive nature of NFL weeds out those who are lazy and want to coast to retirement.
Your organs and brain do not get healthier as you age. Carrol is unlikely going to build much in his brief time with the Raiders, the Raiders need organizational help and that is how you build a culture that lasts. That is not going to be solved with a 73 yr old HC.
They just need him to lay the foundation, build some semblance of a program — for that entire organization. Their lack of continuity has left it in shambles.
I’m not sure which, if any, of the 1st timers on the list could do it. And I like Vrabel as a HC but for that place and that tall task I think Carroll is the best choice. Hopefully there is already a succession plan in place.
A coach rarely does that. The Organization does. Given the way the Raiders org has been for over 20 years, I guess fans can keep putting their faith into a 73 year old who is likely just killing time until is retirement house is built somewhere.
If Ben is as good as he’s thought to be, the NFC North is going to be a monster of a division. Throw in AFC West as well for some rough games next year.
Cowboys in a Landslide!!!
Obvious answer is the slimy Patriots with that scumbag move of firing Mayo after he had no chance of winning this year and waiting until Vrabel was available. Had to have been a handshake agreement this was gonna happen…if you didn’t think it was, you just weren’t paying attention
The Patriots by far were the worst prepared team and worst coached team from the Head Coach down to the two Coordinators. Kraft is an idiot… we can agree about that.
They were arguably not even the worst prepared in their own division. Did you see the Jets gameplans this year? How they constantly blew all their timeouts in the 1st and 3rd quarter? Didn’t have audibles or protections ready and had delay of game after delay of game?
The Bears under Eberflus were also terribly prepared and the Raiders under Pierce were also in that mix. There is no “by far” here.
scumbag move firing the guy who would fraternize with the players instead of watching film and preparing.
“In 2023 Jerod Mayo got interview requests for head coach opportunities. He then signed a new deal with New England that made him coach-in-waiting. Robert Kraft was proud of his hiring last January, and before a full 365 days later he was abandoning his plan”
I’m just saying….Interesting timing with Vrabel out there to abandon a plan you were so proud of with your HC In Waiting.
But Kraft and the Pats can do no wrong even when they give a HC no shot to win with a dog crap roster and rookie QB and fire him after 1 year (keep in mind, in a league that pushes so hard for minority leadership positions too)
Scumbag move by a scumbag owner
He new he was the next HC but he had no plan no idea on what Coordinators he wanted what system he wanted he was prepared and didn’t what to do the work to make sure his team was prepared every week he was in over his head and didn’t want to work and the Krafts are just as much to blame they should’ve let him go out and find his coaching style and team so it’s on Mayo just as much as the Krafts
we won’t know for another 3 years.
on paper (right now) its the bears
It definitely doesn’t look good if your HC search includes 2 dozen candidates and you still end up fumbling the ball.
I assumed they were just gathering information and/or killing time. They got their guy.
It’s like the draft.
Bears fan but I still vote Vrabel for now. Although Johnson a close second.
I would have picked Vrabel if he went to the Bears which appear to have a better overall roster than NE.
North Carolina tarheels
I want one of the (as of this writing) 67 Cowboy voters to justify why they chose them.
It’s like Trump says, it’s all about genes, and the Schottenheimers have good genes. Very very very good genes.
While the popular pick would be the Bears because they have a young QB that everybody thinks is all that and a bag of chips…I still think that Caleb Williams is NOT all that but if Ben Johnson can bring what he learned from Dan Campbell about being a head coach then the Bears might have something…we all know that Johnson is a very good and creative OC but will that translate to running a whole team?
Vrabel has walked into a decent situation because he has already proven to be a more than adequate HC and he will put his stamp on the Pats defense and he has a young QB in Drake Maye, that given the right coaching will surpass Williams as the 2nd best QB in that draft. I don’t think anybody could argue that Jayden Daniels, who is far and away a much better QB than Williams, benefited from having Kliff Kingsbury as his OC, QB whisperer and mentor, is and will continue to be the best QB in that draft for years to come.
My vote in order is Mike Vrabel in New England, Ben Johnson in Chicago, Kellen Moore in New Orleans, Pete Carroll in Las Vegas, Liam Coen in Jacksonville, Aaron Glenn in New York (In Spite of the Owner) and last is the Dallas Cowboys with Brian Schottenheimer (Because of the Owner)
You’re jumping to a lot of conclusions. You can’t fairly judge Williams after one season behind arguably the worst OL in the league, two different HC’s (one who was an absolute bonehead), and two different OC’s. Stroud was God’s gift in the ’23 season and laid an egg in ’24. Give it a minute… Johnson was absolutely the best hire for the Bears if they want Williams to succeed. He hired a DC with a stellar record in that position and has had HC experience. Let’s talk again after ’25…
I saw plenty of Caleb Williams at USC and he had a very good coach and still made bonehead decisions. I agree that the Bears need to improve their O-Line but that doesn’t dismiss the fact that Williams still makes bonehead decisions, and he is supposed to be “The Captain of the Ship”. Making plans is the Head Coach but the operational decisions all fall on Williams…get rid of the ball, hurry up the offense in time critical situations, call a time out and the list goes on and on…hopefully Ben Johnson will be able to get Williams to understand the nuances of playing QB in the NFL. Chicago could have something if he is able to put his MASSIVE ego aside but from what I’ve seen he thinks he is bigger than the team and the game and I’m sure you can guess I’m not a fan of Williams…the Bears…Yes…Williams…NO.
I hope I’m 100% wrong and he can bring championships to the Bears and if he does, I will be the very first to admit I was wrong but I don’t think I’ll have to write that Mea Culpa anytime soon.
Well, all rookie QBs are guilty of at least some of the faults you find in Williams- even Daniels. But I’m just gonna wait and see how the offseason unfolds and roll with it. As a Bear fan, I’m optimistic with Johnson. Yep, he’s new to the HC thing, but every other coach in the north was a first time coach with those teams- even after rocky starts… Anyone is better than Eberflus.
Go Bears…
Ben Johnson won’t have the Detroit offensive line. Lol
I say Kellen Moore because of the balanced play calling and emphasis on offensive physicality. Pete Carroll is my #2 but again the cup board is bare on offense.
No, but Johnson will likely work with Poles to get an OL. This hire is not about next years, its about the next years of their time with that team.
Kellen Moore emphasized what was already previously emphasized in Philly. It wasn’t like he walked into a tough situation and had success. He went into a great situation that got even greater with the signing of the best RB in the league.
Feel bad for the poor souls that voted Cowboys
I didn’t vote for Cowboys, but I will say, the direction is to make the offense less dependent on Dak. That’s progress I guess.
How about who made the best 2024 hire?
He’s not a HC but it’s rather obvious that Vic Fangio was the best coaching hire this past season.
My #1 would be Sean Payton for bringing a team in cap hell with a rookie QB to the playoffs. #2 would be Harbaugh for straightening out the Chargers with so much roster turnover and turning them into a success.
But I voted for Pete as he’ll bring stability, legitimacy, and competitiveness to a team that needed it. Ben Johnson has never been an HC, so can’t say.
Carroll is 73, he will likely bring stability for about 2 seasons then likely be gone, maybe three, in that time is he going to somehow turn the Raiders into a consistent winner given what little they have now?
I mean if he does then yeah he deserves Coach of the decade, but doubtful.
The question is which team made the best hire. For the Raiders, that’s a great hire and exactly what they need now. Who knows? Carroll may outlast other HCs in this list. Age is just a number.
Or he could have a heart attack tomorrow. You do not get healthier the older you get, Carroll is a bad hire as its not bringing any kind of continuity to the table. More like a ‘hail mary’ hoping to somehow hit it big in the next few seasons, then back to the search for the ‘right guy’. Sure that can happen with any team, but again this guy is 73. Also a culture change is as good as the HC, meaning he is gone and that goes out the window. You make that change with an entire org, not a HC who is 73. The Bears tried that with a guy like Fox.. Did not work out so well.
PC will change the culture in LV in one season. Something the Raiders desperately needed.
The poll is for 2025 new hires, not 2023 or 2024 hires
Almost went Cowboys. But I think it’s actually Jacksonville. Who knows, right? The slam dunk hire is sometimes a brick.
Raiders are safest to work out.
Don’t sleep on Aaron Glenn. Yes his defenses weren’t great in Detroit but that’s not his fault. He did the best he could with what he had. Brad Holmes spent most of his high picks on the offense until this past year. Then you get 18 players on IR and still win 15 games is remarkable. He played for and coached under some great Head Coaches. He is ready for this.
Hard to predict, too many variables at play: is the coach on the same page as the GM, the team drafts well, manages the cap well and fills in voids with free agents. 2021 is a good year for comparison, 7 coaches hired, only Sirianni and Campbell are still employed.
New England. Not only for the hire but for replacing the dud they had.
No love for liam coen in jax?