No Chiefs Trey Smith Tag Expected; Guard-Record Deal Anticipated In Free Agency

The Chiefs’ issues blocking a dialed-in Eagles pass rush in Super Bowl LIX figure to work against them in free agency as well. Philadelphia’s dominant victory highlighted the importance of quality offensive linemen, and one of Kansas City’s three Pro Bowlers will be paid as such soon.

An expectation the Chiefs will lose their four-year right guard in free agency emerged soon after the Eagles’ conquest, but the AFC champions could prevent this by unholstering the franchise tag. Guard are almost never tagged, as the CBA groups interior O-linemen and tackles together, and Kansas City is not expected to make an exception here. No Smith franchise or transition tag is expected, The Athletic’s Nate Taylor notes (subscription required).

[RELATED: Bears Interested In Adding Smith?]

Although the 2025 salary cap has not produced a number yet, OverTheCap projects the O-line tag to come in beyond $25MM. That would be a tough ask for a Chiefs team, despite the luxury Patrick Mahomes‘ through-2031 contract has provided on the restructure front, projected to come in less than $1MM under the 2025 cap as of Wednesday. A $25MM-plus cap hold for a Smith tag would greatly hinder the Chiefs from improving.

Because of tackle salaries ballooning the tag numbers for other O-linemen, guards regularly score big in free agency. Teams’ reluctance to protect them via the tag has seen only two players (Brandon Scherff, Joe Thuney) be tagged at the position over the past 15 years. The Patriots’ 2020 Thuney tag proved a rental, as a 2021 Chiefs O-line overhaul soon included a then-record payment for the quality LG. One year remains on Thuney’s five-year, $80MM contract.

Smith departing in free agency would create a right guard need, but the Chiefs already carry a deficiency at left tackle. The highest-profile O-line spot will require immediate attention, as the Chiefs will surely slide Thuney back to LG after he served as a patchwork solution for a team that has struggled to staff its LT post since not re-tagging Orlando Brown Jr. in. While Wanya Morris and Kingsley Suamataia remain under contract, neither should be expected to head into the offseason program as the Chiefs’ projected LT starter. Thus, that will likely require a free agency addition. Fortunately for the Chiefs, a few options — Ronnie Stanley, Cam Robinson and Alaric Jackson — could soon be available. Though, a notable left tackle addition may cost the Chiefs a proven interior blocker.

Going into his age-26 season, Smith should be viewed as likely to reset the guard market, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes. Eagles LG Landon Dickerson moved that bar to $21MM per year in 2024, and this afternoon’s update on the salary cap — which is now set to land between $277.5MM and $281.5MM — will be welcome news for this year’s top free agents. Despite not accumulating the accolades Dickerson has, Smith — who made his first Pro Bowl this past season — will benefit based on position and teams’ interest in securing a high-end blocker without an injury history. The former sixth-round pick has missed one career game.

After the Chiefs gave Creed Humphrey a record-shattering center extension, they still expressed interest in a Smith deal. The team carried that interest into the regular season, and as recently as the midseason point, the Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs notes the expectation around the league was the Chiefs would find a way to keep Smith on a second contract. That sentiment has since shifted, pointing toward the Chiefs standing down and being resigned to losing the former Day 3 find.

Kansas City has three blockers (Humphrey, Thuney, Jawaan Taylor) signed to big-ticket contracts. While Taylor has been more problem than solution at right tackle, the penalty maven’s 2023 market produced a player-friendly deal that saw his 2025 salary ($19.5MM) become guaranteed in March 2024. The Chiefs may need to live with the disappointing free agent signing for one more season, as no cap relief would come via even a post-June 1 cut.

As the three-time reigning AFC champs determine a left tackle solution, their right guard is on the doorstep of a monumental payday. With the March 4 tag deadline not appearing to apply here, Kansas City has until March 10 to negotiate exclusively with Smith.