Not long after taking home the Coach of the Year award, Kevin O’Connell spoke to the media about the Vikings’ looming Sam Darnold decision. No commitment has been made yet regarding the team’s direction at quarterback, but O’Connell confirmed the lines of communication will remain open with Darnold’s camp this offseason. 
“Look, you guys know how I feel about Sam,” he said (via ESPN’s Kevin Seifert). “He is a guy that we identified last year as somebody who could come in and be successful. And really no matter where he was at before he arrived in his quarterback journey, it was about maximizing our time together. And I think we did that, and I think it was a very special year for Sam.
“So he’s earned the right to be a free agent, but we will continue to have ongoing dialogue and discussions with him and his representation.”
Darnold outplayed his one-year, $10MM pact in 2024 and a weak class of QB prospects could help his market value as teams evaluate their free agent options under center. Minnesota could look to work out a multi-year pact, but doing so would further delay 2024 first-rounder J.J. McCarthy‘s ascent to the starting gig (a process which was already put on hold during his rookie campaign due to a meniscus tear). The transition or franchise tag route remains an option, but a lucrative and fully-guaranteed commitment for 2025 may give the Vikings pause.
If a multi-year deal is to come Darnold’s way, something in line with Baker Mayfield‘s 2024 Buccaneers extension is considered a suitable framework. Mayfield inked a three-year, $100MM pact to remain in Tampa Bay after a strong debut season with the team. In terms of annual average value and total guarantees ($50MM), the deal pales in comparison to many others at the top of the position’s market, but duplicating it would represent a major windfall in Darnold’s case. The former No. 3 pick remained firmly on the Vikings’ radar regarding a raise as of December, but an underwhelming end to the season may have hindered his earning power.
After seeing Darnold, 27, and the offense struggle in Week 18 as well as the wild-card round of the playoffs, the Vikings could of course elect to hand the reins over to McCarthy and add a less expensive insurance option (which Tom Pelissero and Ian Rapoport of the NFL.com confirm, while adding that re-signing Daniel Jones would also be in play in that scenario). General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah made it clear last month the team will still contemplate keeping Darnold in place by one means or another, though, while obviously taking into account the effect any Darnold decision will have on McCarthy. The latter was seen as one of the least refined prospects in last year’s class, so missing out on valuable practice reps in 2024 could alter his development timeline.
Still, McCarthy’s recovery has gone according to plan and he is on track to be full healthy well in advance of Week 1 of the 2025 campaign. Whether or not Darnold will also be in Minnesota by that point will be one of the league’s top storylines given his relatively unique situation. It will be interesting to see if serious progress is made on the negotiating front over the coming weeks or if talks will still allow for Darnold to test his market in mid-March.
What would the cost of the franchise tag be?
Close to 40 million.
The projected franchise tag for a quarterback in the 2025 NFL season is between $39,637,000 and $41,325,000
Move on, if they’re smart.
Darnold should take the first Baker-esque offer that comes his way. There’s no way the Vikings offer 3 years with JJM on the roster.
Vikes gotta try to resign him.
2 years and 80 and let him start next year and give JJ a chance to heal and learn, then if you think he’s ready, trade Darnold a year from now and get a day 2 pick and maybe some further compensation. if JJ isn’t progressing you are covered.
2 years, 40. Take it or leave it journey man.
He’s going to get at least 30 per year.
He’ll leave it and go to a team that gives him what he’s earned from a 14-win season.
You’re not wrong because the last few games of the season he returned to the norm, but yeah given the QB FA market and poor draft he’s gonna probably get something around $100M for anything over 2 years – lolwhat said it best above. Kudos to him for persevering through the Jets/Panthers messes and *most likely* providing his family with real generational wealth.
Without O’Connell’s tutoring won’t Sam go back to the inconsistent QB that he’s been his whole career?
Yes.. Buyer beware. O’Connell’s system is the only one he’s had success in. Overpaying him would be a desperation move.
Remember Cade Keenum? Flash in the pan. Just like Sam. I wouldn’t resign him with starter money. McCarthy is next up. The other shoe will drop on Darnold and become a Cousins in ATL situation.
Nick Foles, Matt Cassel, Spergon Wynn, etc
Case*