Assessing Where QB Market Stands

This year’s veteran quarterback market consists of at least one Hall of Famer, possibly two. Although Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are no longer in their primes, each is expected to play in 2025. Kirk Cousins is also lingering as a potential option.

Sam Darnold, however, headlines this free agent class — one that features four of the five QBs chosen in the 2021 first round. Only Justin Fields qualifies as a starter-level option from that quintet, as Mac Jones, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance will not garner attention on that level this year. Daniel Jones also hovers as an interesting option, despite his rough 2023 and ’24 showings.

The trade market, which technically includes Cousins, also has introduced a big name. The Rams continue to dangle Matthew Stafford. Even if this is merely to pinpoint his value as the sides haggle over a new contract, a handful of teams — chiefly the Raiders and Giants — have entered the fray for the former Super Bowl winner. Here is where these markets stand at the Combine:

Making sense of Stafford saga

It has now been five days since it became known the Rams were letting Matthew Stafford speak with other teams. Rather than seeking another reworking, Stafford is gunning for a new contract — and to become the oldest member of the $50MM-AAV club since Rodgers, who was there for a season. No one tied to a long-term deal averaging north of $50MM is older than 31; Stafford will play an age-37 season in 2025.

He is partially at fault for this value discrepancy. After all, Stafford had left money on the table during his initial Rams negotiations in an effort to help the team around him. That led to Stafford signing for four years and $160MM; that matched the Dak Prescott terms — though with less player-friendly language — at the time. It now sits 15th at the position..

The Browns and Steelers were loosely tied to Stafford, but the Giants and Raiders have stepped to the forefront. It would make more sense, were Stafford angling to jump to a roster that could form a contender, for him to consider the AFC North teams. But it is not known if they made serious pushes. As it stands, Giants and Raiders teams respectively coming off 3-14 and 4-13 seasons are in pursuit. The Giants have met with Stafford’s camp and asked about the QB before last year’s deadline, as their Jones plan was imploding. But the Silver and Black have done far more to indicate they are serious.

No matter how it happened, Stafford and new Raiders power broker Tom Brady met in Montana to discuss a potential fit. The Raiders have since come close on contract parameters, though it is not believed trade terms are worked out. Neither the Giants nor Raiders are open to meeting the Rams’ first-rounder asking price, as the teams hold Nos. 3 and 6. A high second-rounder headlining the package, or a potential future first, would make more sense.

Like the 49ers did with Brandon Aiyuk, the Rams still have the final say. They can opt to pay Stafford his modest roster bonus ($4MM) and work out a deal to ensure continuity for a team that has mounted stiff playoff challenges over the past two years. (As of now, however, L.A. is balking at a $50MM-per-year number.) Otherwise, the Rams risk falling backward without a quarterback plan.

Rodgers-Rams link emerges; who else makes sense for 20-year vet?

If the Rams truly go to the edge with Stafford, a report has emerged depicting Rodgers as an interested observer. Rodgers has been tied to wanting to join the Rams and to take Davante Adams with him once again. Adams was mentioned as a potential Rams target before Rodgers was thrown into the mix. It would be interesting to see the Rams try a formula that did not work for the Jets, but Rodgers — albeit at 41 — would be a capable option for far less than Stafford.

Our late-December poll about Rodgers fits did not place the Steelers as a realistic destination. Ditto the Browns. Both teams would benefit from a high-profile placeholder, though the four-time MVP’s current form may not be worth the baggage that also now comes with him.

While the Jets may not have issued an ultimatum regarding Rodgers’ Pat McAfee Show appearances, they are believed to have discussed the matter — as Gang Green’s new regime quickly decided to move on. A Jets team that lacks a surefire route to acquiring a more talented QB in 2025 announcing it would move on from Rodgers so soon is rather telling.

The Giants have not been tied to Rodgers, despite their Stafford pursuit and the team having no QBs contracted presently. If the Titans were to trade down from No. 1 overall, a veteran bridge would be logical as well. Thus far, however, Rodgers connections beyond the Rams have not surfaced.

Steelers to make internal call?

Thus far, the Steelers have been tied to a Wilson-or-Fields decision. The team has entered talks with both players, as the longstanding organizational policy prevents in-season negotiations. Early rumors pointed to Fields having a better chance to come back than Wilson, and the fifth-year veteran is interested in staying — should he receive a legitimate chance to start. Considering the raise the Steelers would need to authorize to either keep Fields off the open market or outbid other curious teams, it would stand to reason any arrangement in which Fields stays in Pittsburgh would come with a good chance to start.

Fields has long believed to have support in the Steelers’ building, dating back to when he closed the gap on Wilson — long positioned as the favorite for the job during the 2024 offseason — leading to a late Mike Tomlin decision. Although Fields did not show much improvement from his Bears form as a passer while filling in for Wilson, the Tomlin call to give the veteran the job back was not unanimous.

After Wilson struggled down the stretch (albeit with a limited receiving corps), suddenly he has not been as closely linked to the Steelers (though, he has repeatedly stated he wants to stay). Wilson, 36, would be competing with Rodgers (and perhaps Cousins) as a high-profile stopgap were the Steelers to work out something with Fields.

The Giants have been loosely tied to Wilson, whom they hosted on a short visit last year. That could be a team to monitor if this Steelers situation breaks Fields’ way, but a Pete Carroll reunion in Vegas — if Stafford and/or the Rams balk about a divorce — has been floated as a possibility.

Will Falcons really keep Cousins as backup?

Terry Fontenot has twice indicated the Falcons are fine keeping Cousins as a backup. He would be the most expensive backup in NFL history, being on a four-year deal worth $180MM. That contract came with $90MM at signing, covering Cousins’ 2025 salary. The Falcons would also owe him $10MM more, in the form of a 2026 roster bonus that vests a year out, if he is still on the roster on Day 5 of the 2025 league year.

The team paying Cousins that bonus would be interesting, but this situation does differ a bit from the Broncos’ decision to cut Wilson, as they the AFC West club was protecting itself against his 2025 base salary becoming guaranteed. The Falcons already have to eat a $27.5MM base, regardless of how they proceed with the 14th-year vet, but they would have a faint hope of trading the Cousins contract. That makes Atlanta’s route interesting, as Fontenot is now 0-for-4 in playoff berths or .500 seasons as a GM. Michael Penix Jr. emerging as a solid starter would minimize the damage from the Cousins miss, but time would seem to be running out on a struggling decision-maker.

The Browns have been linked to Cousins, who played under Kevin Stefanski for two seasons in Minnesota. Considering the Browns’ Deshaun Watson mess extends through 2026, Cousins on a vet-minimum deal — what he would almost certainly be tied to due were the Falcons to cut him, due to offset language in his current contract — would seem rather enticing for Cleveland. Cleveland also has a direct path to either Cameron Ward or Shedeur Sanders, however. Cousins may be leery of finding himself in the same situation as 2024, but after a down season, the soon-to-be 37-year-old’s options will be limited.

The Vikings’ decision

In a more commanding position with Darnold than they were with Cousins in 2024, the Vikings could send the best free agent option to the market or hang onto him as either high-priced J.J. McCarthy insurance (via the franchise tag) or a trade asset (in a tag-and-trade move). Either way, this is a much better spot for Minnesota compared to last year, when its starter left and stuck the team with a $28.5MM dead money bill.

Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been cagey about his choice, but less than a week remains until the Vikings must decide on a tag. No tag by 3pm CT on March 4 would effectively send Darnold to free agency. This would be a better financial path for the rejuvenated passer, who played for $4.5MM in 2023 and $10MM in 2024. A host of QB-needy teams would pursue Darnold, ensuring plenty of guaranteed money will be available beyond Year 1. The Raiders were connected early, and other teams would be ready to enter the mix. Back in December, the Browns were mentioned as a party monitoring this situation

We have heard the Vikings being a bit leery of applying the tag, at more than $40MM, which could open the door to the team letting Darnold walk and huddling back up with Jones as a much cheaper McCarthy insurance option. Kevin O’Connell has spoken highly of Jones, who could be a Darnold-, Baker Mayfield– or Geno Smith-like rejuvenation candidate under the reigning Coach of the Year. Jones would be far less costly than Darnold. The six-year Giant would be a bridge candidate elsewhere, on a one-year deal, but he would naturally be interested in seeing how the Vikings handle the Darnold matter.

A rumor about McCarthy needing plenty of work included a GM predicting the Vikings tag Darnold to protect themselves; more Darnold tag rumors also surfaced before his struggles in Week 18 and in Round 1. Despite his late-season faceplant, the former No. 3 overall pick belatedly delivered on his USC hype under O’Connell. After Mayfield and Smith proved their resurgences were far from fluky, Darnold will be the unquestioned prize on this year’s market. The Vikings will, then, have the most important say in this year’s free agency.