The latest salary cap projection arrived in December, hinting at a modest increase. As it turns out, that update undersold where the NFL’s 2025 salary ceiling will check in.
That projection pointed to the 2025 cap falling between $265-$275MM, but ESPN.com’s Dan Graziano indicates a boom beyond $280MM is now in play. The NFL has informed teams it will instead land between $277.5MM and $281.5MM. Anywhere in this range will mark at least a $22MM increase from 2024 ($255.4MM). Until Wednesday, teams had been operating on a prediction the cap would land between $272-$275MM, CBS Sports Jonathan Jones adds.
This greater-than-expected increase will not break the record 2024’s cap set, but it be a welcome sight after the rumor that had indicated a lesser jump would take place. Teams suddenly will have a few extra million to throw around in free agency and to allocate toward extensions. This will also mark a massive jump from where the cap was just four years ago.
The COVID-19 pandemic leading to fanless stadiums (in some cities) and heavily capped attendance (in others) in 2020 led to the 2021 cap dropping to $182.5MM. Four years later, the cap will have risen by nearly $100MM.
This continues a stream of growth, a trend that did not develop during the 2011 CBA, which featured stagnancy it its early years before roughly $10MM-per-year climbs as the decade progressed. A 2020 CBA that has included two additional playoff games, a 17th regular-season contest, new TV deals and increased gambling partnerships has seen cap spikes by more than $16MM each year since the pandemic-induced decrease of 2021 and by at least $20MM three times since then.
Last year’s record-setting jump ($30.6MM) could have featured a bigger spike, as the league’s memo (via The Athletic’s Dianna Russini) indicates a smoothing effort took place to produce a more gradual climb rather than have a near-$40MM bump in 2024 and a far lesser surge this year. Roughly $1MM of this year’s bump will also come via performance-based pay.
The 2024 increase brought new position-record contracts at many positions. Chris Jones eclipsed the salary ceiling Aaron Donald‘s then-outlier contract had set for defensive tackles, while Chiefs teammate Creed Humphrey is more than $4MM clear (AAV-wise) than any other center. The guard market saw Landon Dickerson check in with a new record ($21MM per year) just before the 2024 league year opened, while both Patrick Surtain and Jalen Ramsey agreed to deals that broke the cornerback record by a substantial margin. Christian McCaffrey later broke his own RB AAV record by securing a two-year, $38MM extension last summer, and the tackle market included Tristan Wirfs and Penei Sewell establishing new position records.
The two highest-profile positional spikes came at quarterback and wide receiver, respectively. The $30MM-AAV WR club expanded from one to six, with Justin Jefferson‘s $35MM-per-year contract the new standard. After the $50MM-per-year QB club added several new members, Dak Prescott used unique leverage to secure a $60MM-AAV extension hours before the Cowboys’ Week 1 game. While another quarterback topping that this year may be unlikely — barring true Bills-Josh Allen renegotiations transpiring — position records elsewhere (likely headlined by Ja’Marr Chase at receiver and a few edge rusher extension pursuits) are likely thanks in part to Wednesday’s news of better-than-expected cap growth.
Here is how the cap has looked over the past two CBAs:
- 2011: $120.4MM
- 2012: $120.6MM
- 2013: $123.6MM
- 2014: $133MM
- 2015: $143.3MM
- 2016: $155.3MM
- 2017: $167MM
- 2018: $177.2MM
- 2019: $188.2MM
- 2020: $198.2MM
- 2021: $182.5MM
- 2022: $208.2MM
- 2023: $224.8MM
- 2024: $255.4MM
…not you Saints.
….nor you, Browns.
This literally made me lol. Thank you for that.
So they only have to make $50 million in cuts instead of $52 million?
Hmm. I wonder what Jerry Jones thinks about this.
Jerry said”He is really happy with his team and very happy with the recognition they get. I am also proud and happy I get to spend time with my family. To work with your family is a gift many people don’t receive.”
Jerry is happy with MEH. Too bad his kid would never admit it but he would like Jerry to step down and let him run the team. He would not be as all over the replace. Quote is not perfect but close. I don’t know why BSPN said he did a great job. He was better than Biden but not much.
He’s licking his crusty lips and planning to give Dak a $45million bonus
A big cap increase is driven by big revenue. Jerry is likely very happy.
So, the reason that I said that is that Jones claimed that he was planning for a decrease in the salary cap, because he knew of some background specifics that most people didn’t. I actually don’t harbor any anti-Jerry or anti-Cowboys sentiment, but he did reference that idea while also refraining from delving into free agency to replace some of the list production from last year.
Good thing MLB players have stood strong and resisted a salary cap which would save their dying sport so they can have the freedom to make a much lower % of their sports revenues compared to leagues with caps.
Can you name three NFL players (combined) that have the guaranteed money coming to them that Juan Soto, Ohtani, or even Rafael Devers have? I think baseball players enjoy their unlimited earning potential and iron-glad guarantees.
NFL players get 50% of NFL revenue.
MLB players get about 39% of MLB revenue.
Which would you rather have?
First off, you didn’t answer my question. (guess it doesn’t fit your narrative.)
Secondly, not sure where you’re getting 39% of revenue for MLB players. Based on rough estimates of figures I’ve seen reported, it’s closer to 45%-46%. However, because it’s a private business, and it’s CBA doesn’t specify a revenue split, it’s not 100% accurate and only the individual teams truly know.
However, to answer you question…I think I’d still choose baseball, even if the revenue split is slightly less. Why? Many reasons. One, guaranteed contracts. Anthony Rendon has barely played the last five years and, when he does, he stinks. Yet he’s still guaranteed to make more than Dak Prescott, who has the biggest guarantee in the NFL. Two, players typically have longer careers which enhances their overall earning potential. Three, even though they reportedly receive less of the revenue, their “share” is shared by fewer players (smaller rosters) thereby increasing their actual cash. Four, while I’m not totally up to date on NFL benefits, MLB payers with 10 years service time receive lifetime pensions ($275K/year with COL adjustments), healthcare, etc.
Overall, I think baseball has a better pay formula for its players despite not having an even split of revenues.
Also MLB offers a minor league system that players earn salary while improving skills.
The average MLB career lasts 5.6 years compared to an NFL career which lasts on average 3.3 years… so baseball players may get less revenue but they get it for a longer period of time.
Saints are still royally Eff’ed lmao
So that’s what everybody was waiting for. Now we should start to see some business move.