Sam Darnold promises to be one of the most interesting free agents in recent memory. Regarding quarterback UFAs, he may become one of the most captivating commodities since full-fledged free agency launched in 1993.
Coming off an original-ballot Pro Bowl nod, Darnold transformed his free agency stock during the regular season but offered a startling update to his value to close the campaign. Duds in the Vikings’ two biggest games — blowout road losses to the Lions and Rams — did the most to drop the only 14-win team in wild-card history to being a one-and-done. Questions already lingered about Minnesota’s 2025 QB situation; Darnold’s big-stage struggles will amplify them.
The team will have the option to retain Darnold via the franchise tag, but that scenario was more plausible before the former top-three pick’s concerning finish. Still, Darnold put together a stunning season. The Vikings do not have a decision on the free agent-to-be, however, but their fourth-year GM referred to the full picture when assessing Darnold’s suddenly curious standing.
“We got to see Sam play some incredible football for us,” Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said (via Pro Football Talk). “Won a lot of big games — at Seattle, at Lambeau. The production he was able to do, we’re talking bout games where he won games for us. There were a lot of games where he was a ‘win because of’ type player. And you also have to net that with all of [it] in totality.”
Errant throws and sacks sank Darnold during the Vikings’ final two games, but he still stayed healthy throughout a season for the first time (discounting his year as the 49ers’ backup) and piloted Minnesota to three wins in games against playoff-bound opposition, beating everyone on the schedule except for the Lions and Rams.
The sector in which Minnesota resided in the NFC bracket made the Detroit and Los Angeles issues a problem, but Darnold tallied a career-high (by a wide margin) 35 touchdown passes and tossed just 12 INTs. His 7.9 yards per attempt ranked sixth in the NFL, and his 4,319 passing yards slotted fifth. QBR was a lukewarm on the ex-Jets draftee’s breakout before the Lions rematch, and the modern metric placed him 14th.
It would cost the Vikings more than $40MM to tag Darnold. That rumored scenario may have seemed more palatable before Week 18, but it perhaps still should not be entirely ruled out. An iffy draft pool and a free agency class featuring aging options, disappointing 2020s draftees and backup types would stand to help Darnold, who would be the top option if he reaches the market. Minnesota could opt to take its chances and work out a lower-cost deal without the tag coming into play, but doing a long-term deal after having drafted J.J. McCarthy 10th overall would be complicated. And Darnold may not be especially interested due to McCarthy’s presence, despite the advantages Kevin O’Connell‘s offense can provide.
“We’re going to approach this offseason — I don’t want to give you the stock answer, but it really is — everything we do is about, OK, what’s the team around him going to look like? What does this piece fit into our whole championship equation? And we’ll do those exercises like we did last offseason, came out with a plan that we came up with,” Adofo-Mensah said.
“At the end of the day, you’re making decisions under uncertainty. But what happens is, once you find a course of action, it’s how you implement your plan — how you show up every day and get the best version of whoever you decide to go with at quarterback. How does that fit into your long-term picture? The contract structure, all those different things will go under our plan. And I’m excited to have those conversations because I think we’ve got a lot of good options. And at the most important position in the sport, I think that’s a great thing.”
McCarthy has undergone two knee surgeries, repairing a torn meniscus that knocked him out for the season. The former national championship-winning passer, however, is back on the field doing QB drills, Adofo-Mensah said (via ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert), with the GM indicating the 2024 No. 10 overall pick is on schedule.
Adofo-Mensah, who joins O’Connell on the Vikings’ extension radar, still said it is “way too early” to know the team’s 2025 plan at the position. The Vikings will have some options, though this situation does look a bit different after the team devoted its 2024 offseason to replacing Kirk Cousins with a rookie. Teams will be expected to ask the Vikings about McCarthy’s availability, but Darnold’s shaky conclusion will affect the NFC North club’s answer. No trade should be considered likely in 2025.
McCarthy’s rookie deal runs through 2027, with a fifth-year option in place for the ’28 season. Darnold will be going into his age-28 season in 2025, and a substantial raise — despite the ugly finish — appears certain. QB-needy teams who lack certain access to the top arms in the draft stand to be interested. The franchise tag window opens February 18 and closes March 4; the Vikes will have until March 10 — when the legal tampering period begins — to negotiate exclusively with Darnold.
Is Indy about to go all in on another iffy QB?
The issue is not that Darnold lost those four games to the Lions and the Rams. The issue is how he lost those games. Darnold was completely disoriented under pressure and disintegrated. The play calling was also suspect. When the offensive line is crumbling and your QB looks like a deer in the headlights, it’s time to switch to the quick slant. O’Connell believed in Darnold and they both failed one another, Darnold with his play, O’Connell with his playcalling.
The recipe on how to wreck Sam Darnold (the new and improved version) has been published. Darnold isn’t worth more than $15 million to Minnesota (part-time starter, glorified backup) and is only worth $20 million to the truly desperate.
The truly desperate inevitably have terrible offensive lines and shaky WR. They would get the worst Sam Darnold (the one who played for the NYJ).
The only team who should want Sam Darnold is Minnesota, and they should not pay him more than $15 million. If Brock Purdy’s demands in SF were impossible, then SF might want Darnold and would be able to make use of him. But Purdy has another year under contract in SF and SF would make him play it out (if no extension).
Whatever Darnold’s agent says the Darnold market is almost non-existent. Same thing happened for similar reasons to Case Keenum after his 13 win season, again with the Vikings.
“Whatever Darnold’s agent says the Darnold market is almost non-existent.”
You have no evidence of that other than your opinion.
Case Keenum is not a good comp. He was an UDFA. Darnold is a former #3 overall pick and is 2 years younger. Darnold probably has a lot more in common with Alex Smith than Case Keenum.
I presented fairly detailed arguments above for the poor Sam Darnold market. Darnold is fool’s gold. He’s fortunate to have Kevin O’Connell covering his back. Quite a few other coaches would have shown a lot less patience after those two season-wrecking performances. O’Connell is desperately trying to keep Humpty-Dumpty together to try another season. O’Connell also knows he needs most of Darnold’s would-have-been 2025 salary to bring in one of the top free agent OT, if he wants to see anything like decent performance out of Darnold in 2025.
Viking fans have seen enough not quite good enough QB’s (Bridgewater, Keenum, Cousins, Darnold), there’s no reason to keep an overpriced one for another season. Unless the price is right, O’Connell can and should send Darnold packing.
There’s a reason he was drafted third overall. There’s a reason he started for USC. There’s a reason Minny did well this year. Say it with me. Sam. Darnold.
Darnold played some good games. I was rooting for the guy. But those meltdowns against LA and Detroit showed the same old Sam Darnold the human punching bag, whose weekly beatings on the NYJ turned all of our stomachs for years.
For Darnold, there’s no pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Not for the team, not for him. Darnold’s best play is to stay in Minnesota at whatever price the Vikings offer and try to do better next year.
The analogy QB Case Keenum (see below). It turns out Keenum was traded to the Redskins. The deal was contingent on Keenum taking a $14 million pay cut ($21 million to $7.5 million). Even then the Broncos has to pay half of Keenum’s 2019 salary ($3.5 million).
If Darnold goes elsewhere, he’s unlikely to keep his new job for more than season. If Sam wants to go this way, he should focus entirely on guaranteed money and signing bonus. He’s unlikely to see any non-guaranteed second season money.
Darnold is like Purdy in that they are system QBs. The Ram’s DC completely disrupted the Viking’s “system” and O’Connell couldn’t adjust. Darnold should not wear the failure tag on that one. Yes, he should’ve thrown the ball away a number of times, but I think the system worked so well most of the season that he was kind of shell shocked.
Swap Darnold with Gardner Minshew this year. The Raiders still would have been awful, and we would be talking about paying Minshew. Say it with me. System. Guy.
this is all your opinion. You are not a NFL GM. So you do not know anything more than the rube that posts.
Darnold is benefitting from the system he is in. It also helps to have the weapons the Vikings have. I don’t think it would translate if you stick him on the Raiders or Jets. Conversely, many QBs, could have had similar results in that system.
There will absolutely be a Darnold market. The only way there is no market is if no team signs him which will not happen. Either MN brings him back on a one year deal or another team signs him.
Correction on Case Keenum. There was a market of the truly desperate after the 13 win Vikings season in 2017, salary $2 million. In 2018, the Broncos coughed up $36 million to sign Keenum for two years, okay it’s $18 million/year pretty much what I wrote above.
The Broncos cut Keenum after a single season and Keenum went to the Redskins at $7.5 million, where he was promptly canned half way through his first season. Keenum never smelled another starting job with journeyman stints in Cleveland, Buffalo and Houston.
Such will be the fate of Sam Darnold if he flies his Minnesota nest and leave behind the warm wing of Kevin O’Connell.
The recipe on how to wreck Darnold was published years ago. If you’ve watched him, he has great vision, accuracy, and a strong arm, but he cracks under pressure. Now we see why Kyle Shanahan preferred Purdy over Darnold. The Lions and Rams have average defenses and he looked bad. Vikings had very good WRs, a good TE, and a very good D for Darnold to win those games. If he leaves he won’t find a better situation. With McCarthy and D Jones also in the QB room, Darnold should be the odd man out. Some desperate team will grab Darnold.
Review some of the catches made by the assortment of quality receivers.
In many instances, they made Darnold look better than he actually was.
I can’t imagine titans or jets offering Vikings a decent package for McCarthy an unproven rookie who just did two surgeries and didn’t play one snap of regular season. I also don’t see Minnesota keeping both Darnold and McCarthy at the same time
The draft doesn’t have many QBs ranked high, and not much else in the QB market, unless you want Cousins or Rodgers. McCarthy does have one season under his belt to learn NFL offenses and watch tape. Some team will try to get him.
Exactly what season does McCarthy have under his belt…..somebody willl try and get him, but he’s pimple faced kid who’s never thrown a NFL pass in a game that counted…..
Unfair to think he gets the Geno smith contract?
Don’t be surprised if Daniel Jones and JJ are the QBs battling it out next year. 8 months with KOC could be just what Jones needed and weapons.