Daniel Jones’ Vikings Role Uncertain; Latest On Sam Darnold’s Free Agency

Sam Darnold enters tonight’s wild-card game as the Vikings’ unquestioned starter. Nick Mullens has been the free agency addition’s backup all season, as he is closing out his third season with the team. But Daniel Jones‘ recent promotion from the practice squad could shake things up as the Vikings enter the playoffs.

Kevin O’Connell said (via ESPN.com’s Kevin Seifert) Jones has improved since joining the team in late November and described his team’s backup situation as “fluid” going into the Rams matchup in Arizona. O’Connell also declined to state who would step in for Darnold in the event of an injury, pointing to Jones having a legitimate shot to do so. Jones said (via the Minneapolis Star Tribune’s Emily Leiker) he is preparing as if he will be the No. 2 option tonight.

Jones is obviously far more experienced as a starter compared to Mullens, though the latter has made 20 starts as a pro. Most of those came in San Francisco, but the three-year Viking did see four starts after Kirk Cousins went down last year. Jones being ready for a QB2 role in time for the playoffs would also make sense, as he was linked to a few teams as a free agent. While developing under O’Connell represents a plus, it would be a bit odd if he chose a team that did not end up moving him past the third-string level.

By moving Jones up to the active roster when they did, the Vikings are positioned — depending on their free agency activity — to land a compensatory pick if/when Jones departs in free agency. Darnold is also coming off a rough outing in Detroit, a showdown that devolved into a blowout loss. It would obviously be shocking if O’Connell benched Darnold at any point tonight or during the playoffs, but Jones’ presence does add a bit of intrigue if the starter cannot rebound from a tough outing.

Darnold reaching free agency would make him the clear-cut top QB on the market, but late-season rumblings have also introduced the franchise tag as a legitimate consideration here. Some executives around the league believe Minnesota will retain Darnold, potentially via the tag, rather than lose him and throw an untested J.J. McCarthy into the deep end to open next season, ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler notes. Darnold staying via $40MM-plus tag also should be considered likely, Yahoo.com’s Charles Robinson writes.

This would open up a scenario in which the Vikings continue to assess McCarthy’s development without trading the 2024 top-10 pick. A trade market could form, but the meniscus injury — one that has led to two surgeries — would also give teams pause about the former national champion even on a weaker QB market. Darnold also may not be thrilled to stay in Minnesota with a McCarthy threat looming — as it did this past offseason — but the tag would allow the Vikings to effectively move their 2024 QB plan to 2025. Darnold would be in position to remain the starter, allowing the Vikings more time to assess both their prominent passers.

Of course, Darnold would run the risk on losing value if he cannot sustain his 2024 play next season. The backup-turned-Pro Bowler would be a candidate to top $40MM per year if allowed to test free agency, and guarantees would top that by a significant margin. That would probably be the best-case scenario for Darnold financially, and it surfaced as a viable option as recently as early December. But he may have played too well for the Vikings to merely move on for only a third-round compensatory pick. While tag money would boost Darnold, he would enter a “prove it” year — after arguably already proving he is an upper-echelon starter — with a potential nine-figure contract at stake for 2026 in that reality.

Even in the days before Darnold’s Detroit outing, Fowler indicated he did not speak with an NFL staffer who believed a team would pay Darnold top-10 QB money. This would be due to the former Jets draftee’s inconsistent history. As of now, Kyler Murray‘s $46.1MM-per-year deal sits 10th among quarterbacks. This maligned draft class and a lack of other potential long-term starters could still conceivably pump up Darnold’s market to that neighborhood, if the Vikings let him walk, but how he fares in the playoffs would also play a significant role in crystalizing the seventh-year vet’s value.

The Vikes will probably give strong consideration to preventing that reality from transpiring, as they are projected to carry more than $69MM in cap space. That would be enough for a tag to be unholstered, even if it ate into Minnesota’s free agency plans at other roster spots. How Minnesota proceeds here will be one of this coming offseason’s top storylines.