With Dak Prescott officially out for the remainder of the season, the chances of a turnaround on the Cowboys’ part are bleak. Sitting at 3-6 on the year, Dallas’ struggles with him in the lineup have left the goal of a playoff berth a rather difficult one for his replacement(s) under center to achieve. 
Given the Cowboys’ distance from contention in the NFC East and the unlikeliness of a wild-card berth, attention has for many shifted to the coming offseason. Like every other team, the spring will require a number of critical decisions on Dallas’ part as owner and general manager Jerry Jones attempts to keep all three members of the Prescott-CeeDee Lamb–Micah Parsons trio intact. As 2024 has illustrated, though, changes at a number of positions will be needed for a return to postseason contention to be possible.
An examination of Dallas’ salary cap and free agency situation reveals the number of key contributors who will need a new deal to remain with the franchise beyond 2024. Finding the funds to retain them while also managing Prescott and Lamb’s monster extensions signed before the start of this season and – after team and player put talks aside for the campaign – work out a second Parsons contract will be central in determining the Cowboys’ path for years to come.
A pair of franchise pillars headline Dallas’ upcoming free agent class. DeMarcus Lawrence and Zack Martin have combined for 13 Pro Bowls in their Cowboys careers, both of which date back to 2014. Each has played out multiple contracts past their respective rookie deals, and they could be in line for at least a short-term accord this spring. It remains to be seen if that will come from Dallas or if an unprecedented departure on the open market becomes possible.
Lawrence will be 33 at the start of the 2025 season, and age will obviously be a factor taken into consideration on the Cowboys’ part regarding upcoming negotiations. The former second-rounder previously played on a five-year, $105MM extension after receiving the franchise tag for the second time. That pact was followed by the three-year, $40MM one which is set to expire after this season.
The Boise State product was limited to only seven games in 2021, but he remained fully healthy for each of the following two seasons. Lawrence has been a starter when on the field this year, although a Lisfranc injury has kept him out of the lineup since September. With three sacks in four games in 2024, a repeat of his early-year production would help his market value (something which, of course, is also driven by his play against the run). Making another commitment to Lawrence would ensure stability along the edge but it would complicate the Cowboys’ other efforts with respect to Parsons in particular and their front seven in general.
Martin has also played on multiple veteran contracts, including a six-year, $84MM pact. Last offseason, the future Hall of Famer engaged in a training camp holdout and ultimately worked out a new agreement including a raise and signficant guarantees. A first-team All-Pro showing (the seventh of his career) justified that commitment on Dallas’ part, but it remains to be seen if another one will be in the picture.
In June, Martin said retirement will be a consideration after the 2024 campaign. He will be 34 at the start of next year should he elect to continue playing, and expectations will still be high if that winds up being the case. If the 2010s All-Decade team member were to hang up his cleats, Dallas would be forced to reset at the right guard spot just as the team did this past offseason after left tackle Tyron Smith departed. That position became an immediate draft priority (with Tyler Guyton being selected in the first round), and the same would be true along the interior if Martin needed to be replaced. 
Given the nature of their respective contracts, void years are present for both Lawrence and Martin. If neither were to be retained – with no adjustments being made to their deals – they would account for a dead cap charge of over $24MM. That figure would kick in at the start of the 2025 league year in March, so re-signing one or both of them before that point would go a long way in determining Dallas’ outlook for the rest of the offseason.
A number of other position groups could see notable turnover shortly in the Cowboys’ case. That includes the quarterback spot; Prescott is under contract through 2028, but Cooper Rush and Trey Lance are both on track for free agency. The veteran is currently set to finish the year atop the depth chart, something which would leave Lance sidelined after that was also the case in 2023.
Dallas acquired Lance last offseason for a fourth-round pick, capital much lower in value than that which was invested in him by the 49ers. The former No. 3 selection did not see the field during his first year with his new team as Prescott remained healthy, but the door is now open to an audition period. Lance could have upside remaining given his age (24) and lack of regular season starts (four), although little time remains in the year for him to help his market value down the stretch. An inexpensive backup – from inside or outside the organization – will be required on Dallas’ part.
The team’s backfield figures to once again be a talking point this spring. The Cowboys have relied on Rico Dowdle as their lead back for the first time in his career this season. The former UDFA has already set a new personal best with 374 rushing yards, and his 4.5 yards per attempt average suggests he could be effective in a notable role beyond this season. Dowdle could make himself a priority for the Cowboys’ front office this offseason even if multiple outside running backs are targeted.
Provided that takes place through free agency or (as was anticipated last spring) the draft, Ezekiel Elliott faces an uncertain future. The former rushing champion returned to Dallas this offseason, but his regression in terms of efficiency has continued in 2024. Elliott has spoken with the organization about his usage this year, and an internal disciplinary measure resulted in him remaining away from the team from a road game earlier this month. A parting of ways could be mutually beneficial and pave the way for new backfield options.
A number of role players are also on track to hit the market in March. That includes Brandin Cooks, who scored eight touchdowns in his debut Cowboys campaign but he is currently on IR after being injured in September. 31 at the start of next season, Cooks is joined by Lamb as the only Dallas receiver not attached to a rookie contract. The trade acquisition of Jonathan Mingo provided the team with another young wideout option on the books beyond the current season, something which could lessen the need to retain Cooks as a vertical option in the passing game.
In the front seven, the likes of linebacker Eric Kendricks along with defensive tackles Osa Odighizuwa and Chauncey Golston are on expiring deals. The Cowboys enter Week 11 ranked 31st against the run, so a number of changes should be prioritized in the spring to improve in that respect. Significant turnover could therefore be on tap.
Looming over all the retain/replace decisions Dallas is set to face is the fact that Parsons is in need of a long-term extension. The 2021 Defensive Rookie of the Year’s financial future was less urgent than that of Prescott and Lamb this past offseason, and he made it clear to the team no in-season extension talks would take place in 2024. Banking on a jump in the cap ceiling and the potential for the edge market to see a spike driven by new deals for the likes of Myles Garrett and T.J. Watt, Parsons could very well attempt to become the league’s highest-paid defender this spring. 
That title currently belongs to Nick Bosa at an annual average value of $34MM. Parsons – whose resumé includes three Pro Bowls and a pair of first-team All-Pro nods – will be hard-pressed to continue his trend of incrementally upping his sack total in 2024 given his missed time through injury. The 25-year-old’s leverage should nevertheless be sufficient to command a massive second contract, something which could leave Dallas as one of the few teams with two big-ticket edge rush deals on the books simultaneously (if Lawrence is re-signed).
March 2025 will mark Year 2 of Lamb’s accord, which calls for a $34.45MM cap hit. A restructure may be in order to lower that figure, but that will all-but certainly be necessary in Prescott’s case since he is on track to count for $89.9MM against Dallas’ cap next year. Creating immediate space will be key in generating flexibility for the 2025 offseason, one which figures to be rather busy for the Cowboys.
As things stand, Dallas, a team with only 39 players under contract for next year, is set to have roughly $9MM in effective 2025 cap space (h/t Over the Cap). That number will change considerably as the new league year approaches and the team attempts to meet several offseason goals with respect to roster alterations. With nine draft picks – including three in the top 75 – the Cowboys are set to have a rookie class which plays a key role at a number of positions. Before the draft takes place, though, impactful decisions on several financial fronts will need to be made.
At least the GM isn’t taking a salary, and that’s about what he’s worth to the position.
This is rather random post on a Sunday during the week 11 early games.
I suppose Adam could have provided a report on how well the Raiders did in Miami…but you never want to upset a barber with sharp scissors.
The record is probably a helpful development for Dallas in the long run. They’re going to have to rely on the draft to fill their roster with the positions that they’ve taken for granted during this contract preparation diet plan that they’ve forced themselves into. It’s good that they retained Will McClay; he and the draft room personnel will really need to keep up their past effectiveness in making quality picks to compensate for the lack of free agent activity. Higher picks will help, especially if the Cowboys are willing to trade down and build up a stash for multiple selections.
Usually, tanking’s negative is what it does to a team’s culture in terms of winning. No player intentionally wants to lose or just doesn’t care at all in the NFL (at least, not the normal ones), but never winning at all can definitely sap a player’s will to do so. I don’t think that that is as extreme a possibility in Dallas as it was in, say, Cleveland in the tank years. Dallas gets made fun of a lot, but they have leaders on the team who do want to win and have done so in the past, so you don’t worry as much as you would when a team tanks. That’s not to say that it ISN’T a concern-Dallas is definitely going to pick up their efforts next year to rejuvenate the team-but at there’s a recent history of double digit wins and players who contributed to that that the team can harken back to.