2025 Return To NY Not Guaranteed For Aaron Rodgers?

In recent weeks, 40-year-old veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers has continued to insist that he intends to keep playing next year for the 2025 NFL season, though this insistence has been fairly noncommittal. Even more uncertain appears to be where Rodgers would play next season should he return to the NFL.

There’s a chance Rodgers won’t want to return. According to Connor Hughes of SportsNet New York, “stability is believed to be the deciding factor on Rodgers returning for a third year with the Jets,” and New York has been anything but stable. Head coach Robert Saleh has already been fired, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett had his play-calling duties revoked, general manager Joe Douglas could find his job in jeopardy, as well, and owner Woody Johnson will go back to his duties as Ambassador to the U.K. after addressing the staff this offseason.

Now, the departure of Saleh and demotion of Hackett aren’t necessarily the indicators of instability that will chase Rodgers; in fact, they may have been a result of Rodgers’ wishes. Stability would really be defined by Douglas and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich remaining in place after this year. Rodgers has claimed that he would like to play for Ulbrich “until the end,” but as the Jets continue to reap the results of attempting to satisfy Rodgers, he may not have as much pull as he used to.

On the other side, Ulbrich has claimed that he “absolutely” wants Rodgers playing for him next season. That opinion only really matters, though, if Ulbrich is appointed the official head coaching job, striking “interim” off his job title. In the last 10 years, only three of 23 interim coaches have been hired as head coach for the following season. Neither Mike Mularkey nor Doug Marrone lasted long in Tennessee and Jacksonville, respectively, and Antonio Pierce is having a rough first full season in Las Vegas.

If Ulbrich isn’t hired to remain as the skipper, even if Rodgers wants to come back, the Jets may have other plans. With a new regime in place, the Jets may want to move on from a passer that would be turning 42 next season. With no guaranteed money left on the last remaining year of his deal, it would be fairly simple to move on from Rodgers financially.

Replacing Rodgers may not be the easiest thing to make happen, though. Currently, Sam Darnold and Russell Wilson are the only two full-time starters set to hit the free agent market following the season. While both are having resurgent seasons with new teams, Wilson is far-removed from his best seasons, and Darnold has never shown the upside that Rodgers has; not to mention that Darnold may not have the best taste in his mouth left over from his first stint with the Jets.

Other free agents like Justin Fields, Jacoby Brissett, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones have starting experience and could serve as decent stopgaps, but only Fields has the upside to develop into a decent long-time starter. ESPN’s Rich Cimini notes that potential cap casualties like Derek Carr or Daniel Jones may become available, but they’re potential cuts for a reason.

The Jets would also have the option of taking a rookie passer in the draft. There are two issues with that plan, though. First, there’s no guarantee that the Jets end up in a position to take one of the draft’s top quarterbacks. Second, the 2025 draft class is lacking for top-end talent with only two quarterbacks seemingly solidifying themselves as first-round prospects up to this point.

Regardless, there are so many variables that will lead to the determination of both whether or not Rodgers will play next year and where he will play if he does return. He will be able to control what his deciding factors are, but ultimately, the decision may end up out of his hands.