The NFC North has been the best division in football this season. All four teams reside above .500 and carry a combined 19-7 record (.733 winning percentage) that far outpaces the other seven divisions’ marks.
If the season ended today, all four NFC North teams would make the playoffs, which would be the first time an entire division qualified for the postseason since the NFL added a third wildcard in 2020 (it was impossible for this to occur from 2002-19). But each team will be aiming to win the division, which would guarantee home-field advantage in the wild-card round and potentially beyond.
The Lions finished Week 7 atop the division at 5-1 with a plus-62 point differential that leads the NFC. Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level after signing a massive extension in May, leading an offense that ranks second in the league with 6.4 yards per play. Detroit has largely carried over its success under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson from last season after spending most of their money this offseason on internal extensions for Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Taylor Decker. A two-game suspension for Jameson Williams will force other playmakers to step up in the coming weeks, but the backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has churned out almost 200 yards from scrimmage per game this season.
The Lions focused on defense for their external additions in the offseason, trading for Carlton Davis and signing D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport in free agency. After giving up 24.3 points per game in 2023, the seventh-most in the league, Detroit has surrendered just 20 points per game this year, the ninth-fewest. Injuries have plagued the unit, however, with Davenport and Derrick Barnes suffering season-ending injuries and Aidan Hutchinson‘s Defensive Player of the Year campaign coming to a screeching halt with a broken tibia and fibula in Week 7.
Hutchinson does have an outside shot to return if the Lions make the Super Bowl, but he won’t play again in the regular season, depriving the defense of its most impactful pass rusher and run defender. Detroit has the third-hardest strength of schedule remaining; its remaining opponents have a combined .581 winning percentage. The Lions may need to look for edge-rushing help at the trade deadline to withstand the losses of Hutchinson and Davenport. They checked in with Haason Reddick‘s camp, before he ended his Jets holdout, and are believed to be interested in Za’Darius Smith.
The Vikings started the season as the NFL’s hottest team, stringing together five straight wins before back-to-back losses to the Lions and the Rams dropped them to 5-2 and second place in the NFC North. Minnesota underwent a minor roster overhaul this offseason, letting Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter walk in free agency and replacing them with less expensive options in Sam Darnold and Jonathan Greenard. The surplus money went toward Justin Jefferson‘s record-setting contract as well as veteran free agents like Aaron Jones, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, and Shaquill Griffin. The Vikings also traded up twice in the draft to select Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick, though a preseason meniscus tear prematurely ended his rookie year.
Kevin O’Connell is an early frontrunner for Coach of the Year after resurrecting the career of Darnold, the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft. The Vikings’ offense ranks sixth with 26.9 points per game on the back of another dominant start from Jefferson, while Brian Flores‘ defense has allowed just 19.6 points per game with one of the league’s best run defenses and relentless blitzing against the pass. Their 0.545 strength of schedule remaining is the seventh-hardest in the league, but the easiest of the NFC North, giving them a solid chance at retaking the division lead by the end of the season.
The third-place Packers are also 5-2, with a loss to the Vikings already on their record. They managed to win two games with Malik Willis, whom they acquired via trade with the Titans in August, at quarterback after Jordan Love‘s Week 1 MCL sprain. Green Bay made Love the highest-paid player in NFL history in July, and he has delivered thus far with an average of 270.2 yards and three touchdowns through the air per game this year.
Love’s quick recovery from injury and return to high-level play bodes well for his long-term future as a franchise quarterback. The Packers also extended Kenny Clark and signed Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs to free agency contracts during the offseason as they moved on from veterans David Bakhtiari, De’Vondre Campbell, and Aaron Jones.
The Packers’ 11 turnovers committed this season rank are the fourth-most in the league, but their 6.1 yards per play and 26.6 points per game are both top-seven marks. If they can take care of the football, they should finish as one of the NFL’s best offenses. The defense, meanwhile, ranks in the top 10 of both points per game and yards per play allowed with a league-leading 17 turnovers. Green Bay’s .544 strength of schedule remaining is the fifth-hardest in the NFL, but the team has avoided major injuries to key players.
The 4-2 Bears represent one of the league’s biggest surprises after remaking their franchise overnight with the selection of Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. Williams withstood some early hiccups to rip off three consecutive wins with 71 combined points in the last two weeks. Chicago also invested in its wide receiver room, extending D.J. Moore, trading for Keenan Allen, and drafting Rome Odunze in the first round to give Williams a strong array of weapons to ease his adjustment to the pros. The Bears also signed D’Andre Swift to lead their backfield after rotating between three running backs last season. The offense has been inefficient with just 4.7 yards per play, the fifth-fewest in the league, but they have been clinical in the red zone with a 70.6% touchdown rate.
Chicago also invested in its secondary over the offseason with a major extension for Jaylon Johnson and the addition of Kevin Byard in free agency. The Bears have reaped the rewards with the fourth-fewest points per game (16.8) and the fifth-fewest yards per play (5.0) and per game (292.0) allowed.
The Bears have benefitted from an easy schedule, beating the struggling quarterbacks of the Titans and the Panthers as well as an injured Rams team and a slumping Jaguars squad in London. The rest of the season will be more difficult, with a league-high .613 strength of schedule remaining that will make the playoffs an uphill climb for Chicago. Still, even finishing above .500 would be a resounding success for the long-suffering franchise and a clear sign that this regime is on the right track.
How will this division’s historically successful start turn out over the next two-plus months? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
We Bears fans believe in Poles not polls …
Things are looking up for sure
Bears haven’t done anything yet, they haven’t played any team aside from Texans. Schedule makers gave them all the easy games early on. CHI vs anyone in their division would have been an early season loss for the Bears up to this point. NFL wants CHI to be successful, its the 3rd largest market in the country. Still only the 4th best team in the NFC North.
Strength of schedule is always determined by the previous year’s W/L record though, not Da Bears fault that they play who they play.
No but it is the Bears fans fault for voting for the Bears in the poll.
Lol
I am aware of strength of schedule, I just think they got a huge favor not having to play any division rivals the first half of the season. Was it intentional? I honestly don’t know but it definitely helps CHI by giving them time to get into rhythm before they face division opponents. The last 8 games of the Bears schedule will ultimately define their season, should be a tough stretch.
The Bears have played who they were scheduled to play and beat the snot out of who they were supposed beat. Reading favoritism into it is ridiculous.
I don’t like the Bears, but your comment makes no sense. Barely any of the NFC North has played each other. Out of the 8 divisions it has played the fewest divisional games, and it’s a cpl game gap til you get to the 7th fewest.
The schedule makers anticipated NFC North being a good division and going down to the wire, so majority of the games are backloaded–well, divisional games are always backloaded, but even more so this year, similar to AFC North last cpl years, AFC East in Brady’s heyday, NFC West cpl years ago.
Minnesota is the fourth best team in that division as long as Darnold is their QB. The early season mirage is over. He’s back to playing like the bridge QB he is.
How many rubber duckies does it take to lose a game? 😉
I’m putting my money on the pack. Organizational consistency will carry them down the stretch
Strength of schedule is almost a better indicator of team capability than individual results. The Vikes have it pretty easy, seemingly, for the next few weeks going forward, but they end with their three toughest games. The Lions have it spread out, and the Packers seem to have their hardest games ahead. I’d go with Detroit, but the Vikings could easily go 8-0 or 7-1 leading up to the Seattle game and have a huge lead over the Lions record-wise. The math seems to favor them, if all stays the same. Whomever wins the second Detroit-Minnesota matchup could easily take the division, and if comes down to that, I think Detroit is the better team. Winning a division is about consistency for the most part, but when it gets down to the tiniest details, luck can definitely play a role.
The Vikings are a pretty good example. They lost last night after some truly dreadful officiating killed any chance that they had at coming back (and, in my opinion, there were a couple of iffy borderline calls in the course of the game, but that’s another discussion-one about letting bad refs or bad rules off the hook by blaming the team completely for all of it). They lost with a bit of luck involved. But who are they consistently?
Consistently they can attack offensively in all phases and areas of the field, and have multiple weapons to do so (from Jefferson, to Addison, to Jones, to even Darnold). Darrisaw’s injury is a big question, depending on the games missed, and I do still have questions about a defense that stops the run well, but seems to hiccup occasionally in coverage. It seems well suited for attacking, but both the Rams and Lions were able to push it in the deep or intermediate area when the scores were about even. The Vikes’ offense can score, especially given the options that it has, and the defense is better when they do. That type of offense is hardest to stop because it’s not reliant on a singular player. However, that’s also a trait that’s shared by ALL of their rivals in the division: each team spreads the ball to various players, and each team has a strong run game to buoy (and enable) the passers.
Green Bay has a host of capable receivers and a top level quarterback who doesn’t panic and can distribute the ball, plus a smart coach who always seems to manage to keep them in the game. I think that the most notable moment for them so far this year was actually in a loss to Minnesota; the Packers were getting blown out by the Vikings, and fought back to get within a score of winning before being defeated. It was a tough comeback, one that a lot of teams wouldn’t be able to do. They also won in Love’s absence, which says something about their consistency as a unit. I do have a few questions still about their receivers, who are all good, but lacking in a go-to must have it sense. They’re still pretty young, and definitely good enough to beat most teams, but can they overcome the best teams in the league in the playoffs? Maybe they can, I wouldn’t be surprised. They’re probably less of an issue than the line, which is good but not great (certain players are, like Jenkins and Tom). Bad news for them is that they play the 49ers, Seahawks, and Vikings again. And that’s not even mentioning that they haven’t had either of their Lions games yet. Schedule’s tough going forward.
The Lions have a greater spectacular factor that the other teams do, and I don’t think that that’s arguable. Goff is the best quarterback in the division, and St. Brown is a top tier receiver in the league. Gibbs can top off big plays in the passing and running game, and Montgomery is an effective and reliable 1a option who can shoulder a load to compensate for prepared defenses. LaPorta has a great set of hands and is a big weapon in the passing game. The Lions can spread the ball, and have the most experience working together at a high level with this group, so they’re hard to ignore. The question for them is, like I said at the top, strength of schedule. They don’t have a bunch of easy games in a row. They will come out of this stretch with a few scars, but it might be enough for a team close to them to push ahead with momentum record-wise. Thing is, I think that actually makes Detroit a better team, and even if Minnesota or Green Bay rips off a perfect or near perfect stretch and wins the division, Detroit could end up the better team in the playoffs due to the schedule.
The only team that I think won’t have a chance to win the division is unsurprisingly Chicago. No offensive to unclemike, of course, but Chicago has scored a lot of points against some subpar defense. The Carolina game is the biggest example of this. Williams has looked pretty good recently, but again, a lot of that is due to the quality of the Bears’ recent competition. That doesn’t mean that the team isn’t much improved, or that they’re trending upward-they are-but I don’t see the trend holding over the course of the season at this high of a level. As pointed out in the article, the offensive efficiency isn’t consistent enough to top the other teams in the division, though I do expect improvement there as Williams matures.
I replied with SOS figures but had them backwards. Chicago has the toughest remaining schedule in the league, while Detroit has the 3rd most difficult, and Green Bay and Minnesota have the 5th and 7th, respectively. It might be a dogfight.
It looks like it, especially between Detroit and Minnesota. Detroit’s tough games look staggered on paper. Don’t know if that helps or not. The Vikings’ look to be an easy break before a steep ramp up, which include some divisional games that likely to be impactful. To me, the math says Minnesota, but my gut really trusts Detroit more.
I’ll probably get blasted by some fellow Packers fans, but I don’t trust them.
-Love isn’t sharp. Too many poor decisions end up as INT’s, and the accuracy isn’t quite there either. He nearly threw a game ending pick on their final drive vs Houston, and was lucky TWO defenders weren’t able to come up with it.
-I’d have bet a chunk of money Narveson would have missed that game winner, and the jury is still out on McManus, IMO.
-missed tackles, big plays and 23 & 25 flapping their gums are the the only sure things from the defense. Need to get Cooper and Wilson in more. Which wouldn’t be an issue..if they still ran a 3-4.
The problem with Love is you really really don’t know which QB is gonna show up, not just game by game but quarter by quarter. Dude can rip it for 300 yards in 3 quarters and throw 3 picks in consecutive 4th quarter drives. The inconsistency is what makes their floor for W/L lower than it probably should be, but at same time it’s that IDGAF attitude that makes GB & Love dangerous, and makes their ceiling higher than 90% of the NFL
Agreed with both. Diabetic Rockstar makes a great point-sometimes we forget that Love’s only a second year starter when we see him in plays, but it doesn’t magically go away with a contract. When he’s on, he’s pretty on, though.
Tldr?
I hedge my bets enough to sound smart without committing.
Lions…?
Too many Nears votes, either partiality or buffoonery.
Bears*
Nears work too!
Go back to bed, homers.
As a Packer fan, hard not thinking the Lions. But I think the Packers will get in the playoffs.
Then, anything can happen.
Packers and Lions I think are locks for playoffs. Well, Lions are locks, Packers I’d say like 95% sure…the rest of the NFC outside of the North is just so damn mediocre.
Vikings SHOULD be included in that “lock” group after their 5-0 start, but the game last night really underscored the some of their issues on D, and losing a starting LT for season is never an easy thing to adjust to halfway into the year.
Until Vikings prove me wrong, I actually think Bears and Minnesota will be neck and neck for 3rd/4th throughout back half of the season, and the final wild card spot might come down to the two of em (assuming that Rams/Seahawks or Atlanta/Tampa get one of them)
Y’all voting for the bears are smoking somethin’. Lions are a juggernaut!
Tell me. Who beat the Lions in Detroit last time they played at Thanksgiving and was it close?
GB is not scared of Detroit and can absolutely beat them again.
They could but that win didn’t automatically make GB better then and it certainly wouldn’t automatically make them better now. A single h2h victory also won’t dictate who wins the division.
No, it won’t. But that’s my point. Lions fans have been acting like they’re far and away the best team in the division for more than a year and it’s just not true. GB was just as good as DET down the stretch last year and has just as strong of a resume. I think they’re better at HC and better defensively too. And QB is a wash.
I respect that opinion and wouldn’t claim bias; however, I don’t think QB is a wash–or I at least feel the Detroit passing game as a whole is more effective–even if the reasoning is Detroit has better weapons and an ability to play off of one of the most useful run games in the league.
Goff- 73.6 comp %, 2.3 % INT rate, 9.3 Y/A, 111.5 RTG, 56.2 QBR, 10 TD/4 INT in 6 games
Love- 61.5 comp %, 4.5 % INT rate, 7.5 Y/A, 94.1 RTG, 57.5 QBR, 15 TD/8 INT in 5 games
The things I value highly (accuracy, efficiency, low turnover rate) make me say Goff for sure, or at least the Detroit offense, particularly the passing game, as I mentioned. It’s fine that he has lower TD totals because Gibbs and Monty have combined for 11 rushing TDs. The Lions average 30.3 PPG, while the Packers average 26.6 PPG.
Defensively, Detroit gives up 20.0 PPG, while Green Bay gives up 20.4 PPG.
All this is to not hate on Green Bay; they’re a very good team who will likely make the playoffs. I just think Detroit is one of the elites.
I’d think that Love missing 2.5 games has a lot to do with that… Also, Detroit has played 3 common opponents with Green Bay. The Titans, whom Willis played against, and the Cardinals.
MIN was a wash. AZ was decidedly in GBs favor. TEN in DETs. But again Willis played that game.
I’m not saying that Gb is a runaway better team. I just think they are close and will be close the whole year, regardless of what happens Sunday.
The NFC North title should be awarded to the team that can read AK185’s comment the quickest…lol.
Sorry friend but I couldn’t resist.
You got my upvote.
I skimmed over it-but that’s more than I did with the actual story.
: – )
this is a good division. Well, the best division, by far.
But the Lions are the obvious best team in not only the NFC North, but also the NFC.
With 49ers looking like they rapidly aged out of their window, and Washington being a year or two away from accruing enough depth & talent, the only non-North team in NFC that could compete for the one seed with them is Tampa…and we saw what happened to their WRs last week.
I think it really is as simple as whoever wins the North also gets the 1st round bye and home field advantage, which is of huge importance to the Lions (Goff, speedy turf, crowd), Packers (Lambeau) and Vikings (crowd noise, weather) probably equally
Damn why are Vikings so low lmao
There’s some recency bias because of the last game, but losing Darrisaw also is a big deal for Darnold. A few defensive issues also surfaced, especially with Cashman out, but with his return next game we’ll have to see how systemic they are…or if they can be corrected.
The Vikes do have a pretty easy schedule for a while going forward, until they finish with a tough slate. If they lose any more than one game for the next seven weeks I’d say that their chances slip immensely. They shouldn’t lose to most of those teams and stay contenders, and they’ll need that W-L record to give them wiggle room against the Lions (or a good run by the Packers).
Let us know when Goff wins a game under pressure. Think I’ll take the Packers.
No disrespect in the slightest to Green Bay, who deserve praise, but hasn’t Goff won more of those than anyone on the Packers’ current team?
Goff went to the NFC Championship last year, and went to the Super Bowl with the Rams. None of the current Green Bay players have gotten that far.
Most of GB’s roster was in high school when Goff and the Rams made the SB.
I have no argument, just wanted to point that out..
Fair, but the prompt was to let someone know when Goff won a game under pressure. Those games count.
Big time Bears fan, but Detroit is the best team in the NFC and probably the NFL.
Hard disagree. Far too much season left to play.