The NFC North has been the best division in football this season. All four teams reside above .500 and carry a combined 19-7 record (.733 winning percentage) that far outpaces the other seven divisions’ marks.
If the season ended today, all four NFC North teams would make the playoffs, which would be the first time an entire division qualified for the postseason since the NFL added a third wildcard in 2020 (it was impossible for this to occur from 2002-19). But each team will be aiming to win the division, which would guarantee home-field advantage in the wild-card round and potentially beyond.
The Lions finished Week 7 atop the division at 5-1 with a plus-62 point differential that leads the NFC. Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level after signing a massive extension in May, leading an offense that ranks second in the league with 6.4 yards per play. Detroit has largely carried over its success under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson from last season after spending most of their money this offseason on internal extensions for Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, and Taylor Decker. A two-game suspension for Jameson Williams will force other playmakers to step up in the coming weeks, but the backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has churned out almost 200 yards from scrimmage per game this season.
The Lions focused on defense for their external additions in the offseason, trading for Carlton Davis and signing D.J. Reader and Marcus Davenport in free agency. After giving up 24.3 points per game in 2023, the seventh-most in the league, Detroit has surrendered just 20 points per game this year, the ninth-fewest. Injuries have plagued the unit, however, with Davenport and Derrick Barnes suffering season-ending injuries and Aidan Hutchinson‘s Defensive Player of the Year campaign coming to a screeching halt with a broken tibia and fibula in Week 7.
Hutchinson does have an outside shot to return if the Lions make the Super Bowl, but he won’t play again in the regular season, depriving the defense of its most impactful pass rusher and run defender. Detroit has the third-hardest strength of schedule remaining; its remaining opponents have a combined .581 winning percentage. The Lions may need to look for edge-rushing help at the trade deadline to withstand the losses of Hutchinson and Davenport. They checked in with Haason Reddick‘s camp, before he ended his Jets holdout, and are believed to be interested in Za’Darius Smith.
The Vikings started the season as the NFL’s hottest team, stringing together five straight wins before back-to-back losses to the Lions and the Rams dropped them to 5-2 and second place in the NFC North. Minnesota underwent a minor roster overhaul this offseason, letting Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter walk in free agency and replacing them with less expensive options in Sam Darnold and Jonathan Greenard. The surplus money went toward Justin Jefferson‘s record-setting contract as well as veteran free agents like Aaron Jones, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, and Shaquill Griffin. The Vikings also traded up twice in the draft to select Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick, though a preseason meniscus tear prematurely ended his rookie year.
Kevin O’Connell is an early frontrunner for Coach of the Year after resurrecting the career of Darnold, the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft. The Vikings’ offense ranks sixth with 26.9 points per game on the back of another dominant start from Jefferson, while Brian Flores‘ defense has allowed just 19.6 points per game with one of the league’s best run defenses and relentless blitzing against the pass. Their 0.545 strength of schedule remaining is the seventh-hardest in the league, but the easiest of the NFC North, giving them a solid chance at retaking the division lead by the end of the season.
The third-place Packers are also 5-2, with a loss to the Vikings already on their record. They managed to win two games with Malik Willis, whom they acquired via trade with the Titans in August, at quarterback after Jordan Love‘s Week 1 MCL sprain. Green Bay made Love the highest-paid player in NFL history in July, and he has delivered thus far with an average of 270.2 yards and three touchdowns through the air per game this year.
Love’s quick recovery from injury and return to high-level play bodes well for his long-term future as a franchise quarterback. The Packers also extended Kenny Clark and signed Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs to free agency contracts during the offseason as they moved on from veterans David Bakhtiari, De’Vondre Campbell, and Aaron Jones.
The Packers’ 11 turnovers committed this season rank are the fourth-most in the league, but their 6.1 yards per play and 26.6 points per game are both top-seven marks. If they can take care of the football, they should finish as one of the NFL’s best offenses. The defense, meanwhile, ranks in the top 10 of both points per game and yards per play allowed with a league-leading 17 turnovers. Green Bay’s .544 strength of schedule remaining is the fifth-hardest in the NFL, but the team has avoided major injuries to key players.
The 4-2 Bears represent one of the league’s biggest surprises after remaking their franchise overnight with the selection of Caleb Williams with the first overall pick. Williams withstood some early hiccups to rip off three consecutive wins with 71 combined points in the last two weeks. Chicago also invested in its wide receiver room, extending D.J. Moore, trading for Keenan Allen, and drafting Rome Odunze in the first round to give Williams a strong array of weapons to ease his adjustment to the pros. The Bears also signed D’Andre Swift to lead their backfield after rotating between three running backs last season. The offense has been inefficient with just 4.7 yards per play, the fifth-fewest in the league, but they have been clinical in the red zone with a 70.6% touchdown rate.
Chicago also invested in its secondary over the offseason with a major extension for Jaylon Johnson and the addition of Kevin Byard in free agency. The Bears have reaped the rewards with the fourth-fewest points per game (16.8) and the fifth-fewest yards per play (5.0) and per game (292.0) allowed.
The Bears have benefitted from an easy schedule, beating the struggling quarterbacks of the Titans and the Panthers as well as an injured Rams team and a slumping Jaguars squad in London. The rest of the season will be more difficult, with a league-high .613 strength of schedule remaining that will make the playoffs an uphill climb for Chicago. Still, even finishing above .500 would be a resounding success for the long-suffering franchise and a clear sign that this regime is on the right track.
How will this division’s historically successful start turn out over the next two-plus months? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section.
We Bears fans believe in Poles not polls …
Bears haven’t done anything yet, they haven’t played any team aside from Texans. Schedule makers gave them all the easy games early on. CHI vs anyone in their division would have been an early season loss for the Bears up to this point. NFL wants CHI to be successful, its the 3rd largest market in the country. Still only the 4th best team in the NFC North.
Strength of schedule is always determined by the previous year’s W/L record though, not Da Bears fault that they play who they play.
No but it is the Bears fans fault for voting for the Bears in the poll.
Lol
I am aware of strength of schedule, I just think they got a huge favor not having to play any division rivals the first half of the season. Was it intentional? I honestly don’t know but it definitely helps CHI by giving them time to get into rhythm before they face division opponents. The last 8 games of the Bears schedule will ultimately define their season, should be a tough stretch.
I’m putting my money on the pack. Organizational consistency will carry them down the stretch
Strength of schedule is almost a better indicator of team capability than individual results. The Vikes have it pretty easy, seemingly, for the next few weeks going forward, but they end with their three toughest games. The Lions have it spread out, and the Packers seem to have their hardest games ahead. I’d go with Detroit, but the Vikings could easily go 8-0 or 7-1 leading up to the Seattle game and have a huge lead over the Lions record-wise. The math seems to favor them, if all stays the same. Whomever wins the second Detroit-Minnesota matchup could easily take the division, and if comes down to that, I think Detroit is the better team. Winning a division is about consistency for the most part, but when it gets down to the tiniest details, luck can definitely play a role.
The Vikings are a pretty good example. They lost last night after some truly dreadful officiating killed any chance that they had at coming back (and, in my opinion, there were a couple of iffy borderline calls in the course of the game, but that’s another discussion-one about letting bad refs or bad rules off the hook by blaming the team completely for all of it). They lost with a bit of luck involved. But who are they consistently?
Consistently they can attack offensively in all phases and areas of the field, and have multiple weapons to do so (from Jefferson, to Addison, to Jones, to even Darnold). Darrisaw’s injury is a big question, depending on the games missed, and I do still have questions about a defense that stops the run well, but seems to hiccup occasionally in coverage. It seems well suited for attacking, but both the Rams and Lions were able to push it in the deep or intermediate area when the scores were about even. The Vikes’ offense can score, especially given the options that it has, and the defense is better when they do. That type of offense is hardest to stop because it’s not reliant on a singular player. However, that’s also a trait that’s shared by ALL of their rivals in the division: each team spreads the ball to various players, and each team has a strong run game to buoy (and enable) the passers.
Green Bay has a host of capable receivers and a top level quarterback who doesn’t panic and can distribute the ball, plus a smart coach who always seems to manage to keep them in the game. I think that the most notable moment for them so far this year was actually in a loss to Minnesota; the Packers were getting blown out by the Vikings, and fought back to get within a score of winning before being defeated. It was a tough comeback, one that a lot of teams wouldn’t be able to do. They also won in Love’s absence, which says something about their consistency as a unit. I do have a few questions still about their receivers, who are all good, but lacking in a go-to must have it sense. They’re still pretty young, and definitely good enough to beat most teams, but can they overcome the best teams in the league in the playoffs? Maybe they can, I wouldn’t be surprised. They’re probably less of an issue than the line, which is good but not great (certain players are, like Jenkins and Tom). Bad news for them is that they play the 49ers, Seahawks, and Vikings again. And that’s not even mentioning that they haven’t had either of their Lions games yet. Schedule’s tough going forward.
The Lions have a greater spectacular factor that the other teams do, and I don’t think that that’s arguable. Goff is the best quarterback in the division, and St. Brown is a top tier receiver in the league. Gibbs can top off big plays in the passing and running game, and Montgomery is an effective and reliable 1a option who can shoulder a load to compensate for prepared defenses. LaPorta has a great set of hands and is a big weapon in the passing game. The Lions can spread the ball, and have the most experience working together at a high level with this group, so they’re hard to ignore. The question for them is, like I said at the top, strength of schedule. They don’t have a bunch of easy games in a row. They will come out of this stretch with a few scars, but it might be enough for a team close to them to push ahead with momentum record-wise. Thing is, I think that actually makes Detroit a better team, and even if Minnesota or Green Bay rips off a perfect or near perfect stretch and wins the division, Detroit could end up the better team in the playoffs due to the schedule.
The only team that I think won’t have a chance to win the division is unsurprisingly Chicago. No offensive to unclemike, of course, but Chicago has scored a lot of points against some subpar defense. The Carolina game is the biggest example of this. Williams has looked pretty good recently, but again, a lot of that is due to the quality of the Bears’ recent competition. That doesn’t mean that the team isn’t much improved, or that they’re trending upward-they are-but I don’t see the trend holding over the course of the season at this high of a level. As pointed out in the article, the offensive efficiency isn’t consistent enough to top the other teams in the division, though I do expect improvement there as Williams matures.