The Vikings are the NFC’s only remaining undefeated team, and their play on offense has been a key factor in that early-season success. Specifically, the performance of quarterback Sam Darnold has raised eyebrows given how he was expected to perform in 2024. 
Selected third overall in 2018 – after the Jets traded up from the No. 6 slot – Darnold faced the task of becoming a franchise passer. That has proven to be the case for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (selected later in the first round that year), but he was unable to develop into a long-term answer under center in New York. The USC product was immediately used in a first-team role but compiled a 13-25 record while completing less than 60% of his passes in the process.
The Jets elected to reset at quarterback in 2021, the year they selected Zach Wilson to start what turned out to be another unsuccessful run at finding a solution at the QB spot. Darnold was dealt to the Panthers for a package of three draft picks, including a second-rounder the following year. That agreement showed he still had some value, albeit far less than what New York originally invested in him. Darnold’s first Panthers season resulted in another losing record along with a 9:13 touchdown-to-interception ratio, however.
Baker Mayfield was added during the subsequent offseason, and 2018’s top selection handled starting duties to begin the 2022 campaign. One week before Mayfield’s release request was granted, though, Darnold took back over as the Panthers’ starter. Carolina won four of six games down the stretch with the latter posting a triple-digit passer rating four times. The team was committed to a more permanent solution than Darnold, a pending free agent, though. Carolina therefore embarked on the blockbuster deal which yielded the No. 1 pick (Bryce Young), something which – to put it mildly – has not gone according to plan so far.
Darnold took a one-year deal in 2023 to serve as the 49ers’ backup. Brock Purdy remained healthy throughout the season, though, so Darnold’s only start game in a meaningless Week 18 contest. His San Francisco tenure did not include eye-popping statistics, but it was sufficient to draw interest from the Broncos and Commanders before a Vikings pact was worked out. The one-year agreement carried a $10MM value, second only to Gardner Minshew in terms of pacts for signal-callers taking backup/bridge starter pacts.
First-round rookie J.J. McCarthy entered training camp behind Darnold on the depth chart, putting the latter on track to handle first-team duties early in the 2024 season. McCarthy’s meniscus tear shut him down for the campaign, however, leaving Darnold in place to guide an offense no longer led by Kirk Cousins. Through one month, things have gone very well without Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson even being in the picture.
Darnold leads the league in touchdown passes (11), yards per attempt (9.6) and passer rating (118.9) early in the campaign. Those figures – along with a career-high 68.9 completion percentage – helped him earn the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Month award for September. If that run of form can continue, a healthy free agent spell will be in store next offseason.
Multiple front office personnel predicted to Outkick’s Armando Salguero the Vikings will make a push to retain Darnold in 2025 despite McCarthy being attached to his rookie contract for the foreseeable future. Minnesota’s offense continuing to thrive would assist Darnold’s bargaining power considerably (not to mention help head coach Kevin O’Connell’s chances of landing an extension alongside general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah). A strong showing could prove Darnold to be the league’s next Mayfield – that is, a passer turning a one-year gig into a multi-year commitment from his team. Mayfield seemed to be on track for free agency before he agreed to a three-year, $100MM Buccaneers pact (including $40MM guaranteed) this past March.
Given his age, Darnold could command a similar deal provided his encouraging performance holds up over the coming months. McCarthy’s presence would complicate considerations on the Vikings’ part with respect to a deal covering 2025 and (quite possibly) multiple years after that for Darnold, but as always a number of teams will be in the market for a veteran passer in free agency. Any which do not figure to have a high first-round draft pick could make a notable push on a multi-year offer.
The executives Salguero spoke with agreed an asking price from Darnold’s camp breaching the $50MM-per-year mark (as nine recent QB deals have) would be untenable. An AAV closer to the high $30MM- or low $40MM-point may be on the table, though, depending on structure and guarantees of course. Especially if Justin Fields lands a new Steelers agreement – something which certainly seems feasible at this point – Darnold would loom as the clear top free agent option amongst veteran passers for Minnesota or any number of other teams.
A regression over the coming games would not leave Darnold in danger of losing his starting spot but it would obviously hinder his market value. As things currently stand, however, he is on track to benefit greatly from his mid-career turnaround.
If he keeps this up we could see a world in which Sam Darnold, the Sam Darnold is making 40m a year. I don’t think anyone could have predicted that.
It would be funny (ironic) to have him sign a 4 year deal while McCarthy waits in the wings, and have Cousins and his four year deal with the Falcons have Penix waiting in the wings. Hopefully Sam signs a great deal to be someone’s starter. (Raiders?) Might be funny if he went back to the Jets after Aaron Rodgers retires.
The difference competent coaching and decent personnel can make are astonishing.