A year after a host of young quarterbacks jockeyed for position to form the $50MM-per-year club, the Cowboys made Dak Prescott the first 30-something member of this contingent. Facing historic player leverage, Dallas greenlit a deal that separated Prescott from the pack.
The NFL has managed to climb from $30MM being its highwater salary point to Prescott’s $60MM-AAV place in barely six years. It took more than 30 years for the league to climb from its first $1MM quarterback to Matt Ryan‘s $30MM-per-year deal from 2018, illustrating the booming market — as the salary cap continues to spike — the current crop enjoys.
Since the 1993 offseason brought the league’s first $5MM-per-year player, here are steps taken to move the market to where it currently stands:
July 15, 1993
- Steve Young signs five-year, $25.25MM 49ers extension
As the free agency era began, the franchise tag also made its debut. Young was in the first class of tagged players, and the 49ers rewarded the reigning MVP by making him the NFL’s first $5MM-per-year player. Young’s agreement, which narrowly surpassed fellow future Hall of Famer John Elway‘s 1993 extension, covered four seasons before the southpaw passer landed another 49ers re-up in 1997.
March 2, 2001
- Packers give Brett Favre 10-year, $101.5MM deal
Dubbed as a “lifetime contract,” Favre’s deal made him the league’s first eight-figure-per-year player. This contract ended up being acquired by the Jets in 2008.
December 29, 2005
- Carson Palmer lands six-year, $97MM Bengals extension
Acting early, the Bengals re-upped Palmer late in his second season as their starter. Three years remained on Palmer’s rookie deal at the time. The former No. 1 overall pick did not receive a new one until after his 2011 trade to the Raiders.
July 13, 2012
- Drew Brees ends franchise tag period with five-year, $100MM Saints accord
It took a bit longer for the NFL to get from $15MM per year to $20MM on average, as the 2011 CBA did not bring cap growth until the mid-2010s. Brees agreed to terms shortly before the July tag deadline, with this deal coming with a grievance that ruled the Saints QB’s tag counted as his second even though his first tag (2005) came from the Chargers. Brees winning the grievance worked as precedent in cases like Kirk Cousins‘ down the road.
June 23, 2017
- Derek Carr secures five-year, $125MM Raiders payday
Admitting he left some money on the table, Carr still became the NFL’s first $25MM-per-year man. He played on that contract through the 2021 season, before agreeing to terms on a third Raiders pact — one that came with a notable escape hatch — in 2022.
May 3, 2018
- Falcons break $30MM-AAV barrier by giving Matt Ryan five-year, $150MM deal
The floodgates began to open following Carr’s accord and Cousins’ fully guaranteed Vikings pact. Ryan did not land a deal after his 2016 MVP season, but following another Falcons playoff berth in 2017, their longtime starter reaped rewards. Ryan remained attached to this deal following a 2022 trade to the Colts.
April 16, 2019
- Seahawks give Russell Wilson four-year, $140MM extension
Meeting their starter’s deadline, the Seahawks hit $35MM per year on the dual-threat standout’s third contract. Wilson played three seasons on this deal. Leery of another negotiation, Seattle bailed in 2022 via a blockbuster trade. Denver then authorized an extension — one it shed to set a dead money record — days before Wilson’s debut with the team.
July 6, 2020
- Chiefs construct outlier Patrick Mahomes contract worth $450MM over 10 years
Mahomes became the first NFLer to hit both the $40MM- and $45MM-per-year benchmarks, signing a deal that upped the market but gave the team tremendous flexibility. The Chiefs reworked Mahomes’ contract in 2023 but have gone to the restructure well three times, including this offseason. No one else has signed a contract spanning more than six years since, and Mahomes is the only NFLer tied to a team through 2031.
March 8, 2022
- Aaron Rodgers scores three-year, $150.82MM Packers extension
As trade rumors (most notably involving the Broncos) followed Rodgers since his feud with Packers management became known on draft weekend 2021, the four-time MVP agreed to stay for what turned out to be one more season in Green Bay. The Packers constructed the contract to include a bonus structure that allowed for an easier trade. Both the Packers and Jets restructured Rodgers’ deal, which did still tag Green Bay with more than $40MM in dead money, in 2023.
September 7, 2023
- Bengals reward Joe Burrow with five-year, $275MM extension
An offseason of one-upping that involved Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert ended with Burrow setting the market at $55MM per year. Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love hit this AAV in 2024.
September 8, 2024
- Dak Prescott secures four-year, $240MM Cowboys extension
Armed with unique leverage and wielding it during his latest round of extension talks, Prescott upped the market by $5MM per annum in becoming the NFL’s first $60MM-per-year performer. As they did during seminal 2021 negotiations, the Cowboys included no-tag and no-trade clauses in their starter’s accord.
I’ve read that the QB accounts for 25-30% of a team’s capability. Elite guys are worth 4-5 wins a year and you really can’t win without one in the post season. (Which goes to show you how stupid the “maximize the rookie contract” crows is).
So… with the salary cap at 255m annually, 55m is about what an elite guy should be getting. The problem comes in when you have non-elite players like Daniel Jones and Jared Goff getting elite money.
So is “elite money” $55 million or is it the $40 million that Jones is getting? Also it should be noted that Jones’s number was inflated to that level due to the lower guarantee amount ($92 million or only 57% of the total value) and the easy out the Giants have after year two of the deal (this year). If he wanted more guaranteed money he would have had a lower AAV, probably around $30-35 million.
Add Trevor, Tua, Burrow (always injured), and plenty more QBs to that list. There can only be 5 top 5 players at any position.
The dilemma is that average QBs can’t take below-market deals because it screws up the next batch of QBs waiting to get paid. Same for all positions.
I personally miss the days when your position wasn’t what got you paid but rather your actual skill level and importance to your ability to win. The fact that very mediocre QBs make more money than some of the best non QBs in the league is absurd to me. Daniel Jones/Kyler Murray/ Trevor Lawrence / all make more money than TJ Watt, Nick Bosa, Justin Jefferson, and Aaron Donald (when he was still playing). Someone make that make sense seriously. No way in HELL I would sign a QB to this bogus “QB Market” unless he was a top 2 or 3 QB. Otherwise I’d let them walk and go right back to the draft. Im sorry but none of those QBs I listed are worth even half what they make.
I agree. If the QB can’t perform at a high level on his rookie deal, let them walk.
Tom Brady is right. We’re seeing really bad QB play across the league, not jjst this year, but the last few years. Even with enhanced rules to protect the QB. Many wagering totals are in the high 30s this week. That’s really low.
I’d argue that the enormous cushion from rule changes makes bad QB play more common. Players, even elite ones like Mahomes, are aided by penalty yardage that doesn’t incentivize refinement on the offensive players’ parts to get better. Brady benefited from this probably more than anyone when he played, but QBs like him, Brees, Manning, and Rodgers all came up in an era where such protections weren’t as blatant as they have been in the last ten or twelve years.
Great work guys! Would love to see how the CB, LT, and DE costs have gone as well. Brian Burns burned the G-men for nothing so far this season.
Money doesn’t fall from the sky so ultimately over spending costs will eventually find their way to the product consumer. How much was a stadium hot dog and beer when the first million dollar contract was paid to a QB? I bet that looks like a great bargain now.
It might, but it shouldn’t. The natural (man-made?) inflation of our economic environment outside of football probably impacts that more than anything else, since the cap is a set cost every year that doesn’t change based directly on an individual contract. The cap will go up regardless, because the NFL’s overall revenue will go up. I’d say that the contract inflation is more related to that as well, so the extent that the cap rising is tied to these contracts seems less causal and more tangental. They seem like they’re both being fed by the same beast (which is the overall rise in revenue), rather than feeding each other (meaning the rise in contract is directly what pushes the rise in cap, which in turn could influence pricing).
However, I do believe that it could be related in terms of an owner’s mindset. Whether fair or not, I would not be shocked at all if owners mentally are disgruntled at paying a player so much, and have it in their minds when they set a direction for stadium pricing.