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Offseason In Review: New Orleans Saints

August 17th, 2024 at 9:02pm CST by Sam Robinson

Checking in as a lower-profile team since Drew Brees‘ retirement and Sean Payton‘s exit, the Saints have not deviated too far from their Payton-era M.O. No rebuild has taken place, and GM Mickey Loomis‘ cap gymnastics remain in high gear. But the team’s fight has produced solidly middle-class residency post-Brees. This offseason brought some attempted fixes and the usual avalanche of restructures. Will they be enough to move the Saints out of this unremarkable sector they have populated for the past few years?

Extensions and restructures:

We will go ahead and assume none of our remaining Offseason In Review offerings will feature this level of restructure volume, but the Saints’ perpetual quest to delay a rebuild/cap reset is one of the NFL’s more underrated offseason features. Loomis continues to creatively reach cap compliance — to the point it is almost easier to name the starters whose contracts were not adjusted. More than $80MM over the cap entering the offseason — Loomis has moved under the cap from deeper in the red before — the Saints benefited from the $30.6MM cap spike.

When the Saints signed Carr, they gave him a $70MM practical guarantee. The 11th-year veteran will be due a $10MM roster bonus (already guaranteed) next year and has $10MM of his 2025 base salary ($30MM) guaranteed. More than $40MM in signing bonus money is now on New Orleans’ books from 2025-28, with three void years included in the deal, as this restructure added $4.6MM to each prorated figure.

This rework will tie Carr to the Saints through at least 2025. Before any other restructures (which may well happen, as this is New Orleans), Carr would cost the team more than $28MM to release in 2026.

The Saints did some work at linebacker this offseason, signing off on another Davis deal before giving Warner a midlevel second contract. Thriving in Dennis Allen‘s scheme, Davis he has been one of this NFL period’s best off-ball linebackers. He is 5-for-5 in All-Pro honors (one first team, four second teams) since his age-30 season, continuing as a three-down player who boosts the Saints’ pass rush in addition to his traditional LB responsibilities. Davis has been a revelation in New Orleans, registering 29 sacks since his 2018 arrival. In terms of off-ball LBs, no one else has more than 23 in that span.

Like ex-Davis teammate Chris Harris at his peak, Pro Football Focus views the do-it-all linebacker in rare air. The advanced metrics site has rated the aging defender as a top-eight off-ball LB in each of the past five seasons. The Saints have used the 12-year vet on between 97-100% of their defensive snaps over the past four, and without noticeable slippage at 35, Davis secured more than two thirds of his 2025 salary guaranteed on this deal — his fourth Saints contract. A key part of Allen’s defenses during the Saints’ late-2010s surge, the perennially underrated defender has a decent shot at playing an age-36 season in New Orleans.

While predicting someone to outlast Davis has been unwise, Werner’s contract puts him in position to anchor the team’s defensive second level after the stalwart’s retirement. Though the Saints can escape this contract fairly easily in 2026, Werner is signed through 2027 on a deal that ranks 18th among non-rush ‘backers.

Rather than try his luck in a contract year and hit free agency, the former second-round pick took an offer in line with an expanding LB middle class. The top of this position’s market thinned this offseason, but teams continue to flood the $6-$10MM-per-year range here. Werner became a full-time player in 2023, logging an 88% snap rate. The Saints expect the 25-year-old defender to build on that run in the mid-2020s.

Signed shortly after the 2022 draft, Mathieu has continued a strong career in his hometown. The two-time Super Bowl starter has not commanded a deal in line with his Chiefs pact (three years, $42MM back in 2019) but remains a productive player. The Saints gave Mathieu a second contract this offseason, one that created $6MM-plus in cap space. Mathieu, 31, secured 2024 guarantees that were not previously in place, though the through-2025 deal does not necessarily ensure the Honey Badger will be back next season.

Lastly, the Saints adjusted Lattimore’s contract in a way that would make him easier to trade. Though, time is running out for that to matter in 2024. The team inserted option bonuses into Lattimore’s contract, which has now been thrice restructured. The $2.76MM 2024 bonus does not need to be paid until just before Week 1, but it would still be reasonable for the Saints to pay the bonus and then trade Lattimore in-season — depending on the offers that emerge. For several weeks now, however, the team has expected to retain Lattimore for an eighth season.

The Pro Bowl cornerback missed seven games last season and 10 in 2022. Some within the organization took issue with the pace at which Lattimore recovered from a lacerated kidney (2022) and last year’s ankle injury. The Saints also considered trades in March, with teams showing interest. Several clubs believed the Saints were indeed shopping Lattimore, whose five-year, $97MM extension runs through 2026. For now, the four-time Pro Bowler remains a Saint. But this will be a situation to monitor if New Orleans starts slowly and Lattimore stays healthy. That said, the 28-year-old CB fits in on a defense flooded with veterans.

Next year’s salary cap number will not surface for months, but the Saints are projected to be $36MM higher than any other team. OverTheCap has New Orleans slotted at $95MM-plus over the projected 2025 salary ceiling. This would be another big test for Loomis, who would face more difficult choices if a fourth straight season goes by without a playoff berth.

Free agency additions:

While this free agency period was less eventful than last year’s Carr-centered project, the Saints added some complementary pieces. One is a high-upside play to address a position that has suddenly become vulnerable.

Young joins a Saints team that saw Cam Jordan post just two sacks — admittedly in an injury-plagued season — in 2023. Payton Turner has also failed to take off after being a first-round pick. The Saints relied on former UDFA Carl Granderson to anchor their pass rush last season, and while he delivered 8.5 sacks and 20 QB hits, the team needs more help as Jordan enters his age-35 season. Enter Young, who stood as one of the most high-variance free agents in recent memory.

Looking like a future star during his 2020 rookie year, Young saw a severe knee injury sidetrack his career in 2021. A torn ACL and ruptured patellar tendon kept the former Defensive Rookie of the Year on the shelf for over a year, but last season brought rejuvenation to the point several teams contacted the Commanders about a trade. The 49ers gave up a third-round compensatory choice for Young, who matched his career-high with 7.5 sacks last season and established a new high-water mark with 15 QB hits. These are not eye-popping numbers, but Young played 19 games last season after losing most of his previous two.

Of course, Young needed the full offseason to rehab a separate issue. A neck injury cost Young Week 1 of last season, and although the four-year veteran played through it, the matter affected his trade market. Young, 25, underwent surgery but has since returned to practice. His health history prompted the Saints to build a contract around per-game roster bonuses; those comprise $7.99MM of Young’s outlay.

As Montez Sweat‘s durability (and production while Young was out) keyed a $24.5MM-per-year Bears extension, Young is deep in “prove it” territory. The former No. 2 overall pick will attempt to rebuild his value, and it will probably take a mostly healthy season for a multiyear offer to form. Otherwise, Young may be on a Jadeveon Clowney-like career arc.

While Drue Tranquill fetched a three-year deal worth $19MM to remain a Chief, Gay could only command a $3MM pact in free agency. Gay has made 47 career starts, and the former second-round pick notched nine tackles for loss (88 total) in just 13 games in 2022. Gay only made 58 stops in 16 games last season, however. The two-time Super Bowl starter has never seen a snap rate north of 70%, and given the Saints’ LB composition, that is unlikely to occur in New Orleans. Gay, 26, can hope to use this season to better his 2025 market.

Re-signings:

Notable losses:

Jettisoning a complex contract marked an appropriate ending for the Saints and Thomas, as the sides enjoyed a torrid start before an extension soon gave way to the former All-Pro becoming one of the NFL’s most injury-prone players. No team has signed Thomas, who would be going into an age-31 season after having missed 47 games during the 2020s. Last season actually brought Thomas’ highest participation rate (10 games) than any since 2019, but the Saints could not realistically continue to roster the eight-year veteran. It was a bit strange they circled back to Thomas in 2023.

Still holding the NFL’s single-season reception record (149), Thomas earned his five-year, $96.25MM extension ahead of that 2019 season. He posted back-to-back first-team All-Pro slates, becoming a lead cast member during the Saints’ late-2010s resurgence. Thomas joined Alvin Kamara as elite skill players in Brees’ twilight years, but the 2020 season provided an unfortunate harbinger of a freefall.

Multiple injuries, including an ankle malady, sidelined Thomas in 2020. He then missed all of 2021, which featured a dispute with the Saints regarding a recovery timetable. In 2022, Thomas played three games before a toe injury intervened. Despite Thomas’ 2023 contract being framed as a one-year deal — before yet another malady (knee) shut him down — the Saints are paying $11.2MM in 2024 dead money and $9.2MM in 2025. Thomas’ 565 career catches trail only Marques Colston in franchise history. Injuries derailed a potential Hall of Fame career.

The Saints threw a few darts for their auxiliary wideout positions around Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed; they did the same at guard, bringing in Lucas Patrick, Oli Udoh and Shane Lemieux. One season remained on Hurst’s contract, which he naturally (being a Saint) restructured this offseason. But the three-year New Orleans starter instead retired. The former UDFA played 10 seasons.

Hurst’s retirement came days before Peat joined the Raiders. The Saints did not show much interest in keeping Peat, as the former first-rounder signed for just $2MM ($450K guaranteed) in Las Vegas. Peat started 102 games for the Saints, re-signing after playing out his rookie contract in 2020. The Saints, however, gave Peat a pay cut — after he had missed 17 games between the 2021 and ’22 seasons — in 2023 and voided the final year of his contract. They slid Peat to left tackle to replace the struggling Trevor Penning, marking an interesting change due to Peat’s extensive past at left guard. An offseason assessment indicated the 31-year-old blocker wanted a fresh start, leading to more instability on a Saints O-line that ended the Payton era in a good place.

With Ryan Ramczyk out for the season, the Saints will have three new starters up front. At guard, Patrick has experience but could also factor in as an interior swingman. The Saints were giving 2023 fourth-rounder Nick Saldiveri an exclusive crack at reps early in camp, though Patrick — a former Bears and Packers center and guard — has 54 career starts. Many of those came at guard in Green Bay. This includes 15 last season. Pro Football Focus still viewed him as one of the league’s worst pass blockers in each of his two Bears slates.

Winston, 30, joined the Browns after a rocky Saints stay. Succeeding Teddy Bridgewater as a midcareer Brees apprentice, Winston took over as New Orleans’ starter in 2021. After producing a 14-3 TD-INT ratio with one of the league’s worst pass-catching groups, Winston sustained an ACL tear. Andy Dalton replaced Winston by October of his second season, despite the Saints authorizing a two-year deal worth $28MM. Naturally, New Orleans adjusted that contract in 2023. After backing up Carr, Winston — who did not rule out a Saints return — bolted, and his 2023 reworking will lead to $10MM in dead money between 2024 and ’25.

New Orleans gave Maye a three-year, $22.5MM contract in 2022 and used him as Mathieu’s safety sidekick. Injuries and a 2023 suspension marred Maye’s Louisiana stay, and the Saints are eating $8.1MM in dead cap as a result of the veteran DB being a standard release. Teams are permitted only two post-June 1 cuts; the Saints used their designations to spread out Thomas and Winston’s cap hits.

The Saints hosted Justin Simmons during training camp but saw the Falcons swoop in with a one-year, $7.5MM deal. Fifth-rounder Jordan Howden worked as Maye’s primary replacement last season; the Simmons visit did provide an indication the Saints are not satisfied with Howden starter status.

Draft:

The Hurst, Peat and Ramczyk developments made predicting the Saints’ first-round path — in a tackle-rich draft — rather easy. Connections to tackles emerged during the draft run-up, and the team made Fuaga the fourth tackle off the board. The Pac-12 product is the fourth first- or second-round Saints O-line pick since 2019. The previous selection’s status contributed to the dire tackle need, and Fuaga has kicked Penning — the team’s would-be LT of the future — to the right side.

Most of the teams who chose tackles in Round 1 have changed their positions. Fuaga is among that contingent, shifting from Oregon State RT to Saints LT. The Beavers stationed Fuaga at right tackle for two seasons, and he did not allow a sack in 25 games during that span. This consistency drew first-team All-American honors, and the Saints will see how the high-end college pass protector fares against speed rushers soon. Failing to replace Terron Armstead effectively since his 2022 Dolphins defection, the Saints need to hit on Fuaga. This investment being a bust will invite serious concerns about the team’s ability to protect Carr.

While Hard Knocks confirmed the Giants eyed McKinstry, Loomis did well to trade up four spots for the Alabama prospect — one that makes the Saints rather deep at corner. New Orleans still has Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor on their rookie deals; Adebo is in a contract year. These two already did heavy lifting together last season, with Lattimore out of the mix for the second half. McKinstry both gives the Saints interesting options and keeps the door open to a potential Lattimore trade.

Viewed as a first-round-level player entering his junior year, McKinstry saw teammate Terrion Arnold pass him. This came after McKinstry collected first-team All-America honors last season. Speed loomed as a pre-draft knock on the three-year Crimson Tide contributor, and it will be interesting to see if the Saints plan to give him a season as a boundary backup. Given Lattimore’s injury trouble and trade potential, McKinstry’s time as a CB4 may be limited.

A 138-pick gap formed between the six-QB first round and the next passer chosen. The Saints are one of just three teams to have chosen a quarterback in the 2023 and ’24 drafts, but these two — despite the Saints leaning on free agency or trade acquisitions at QB for generations — should not exactly be considered potential Carr heir apparents. Jake Haener arriving during Pete Carmichael‘s time is notable here, and Rattler — Oklahoma’s pre-Caleb Williams starter who left for South Carolina after the Sooners made what turned out to be a brief transition to Williams — was not expected to fall to Round 5.

Carr sustained two concussions in 2023 but still has not missed a start due to injury since 2017. Rattler is certain to make New Orleans’ 53-man roster, as he would not clear waivers. Haener underwent a procedure after receiving a skin cancer diagnosis, but the Fresno State alum remains in competition for the second-string gig.

Other:

It is difficult to overstate how rare it is for a coordinator to serve 15 years in the same position. Josh McDaniels did not accumulate that many years as OC in New England across both his stints. One of the longest-tenured coordinators in NFL history, Carmichael mostly served as a non-play-calling OC under Payton. But he called the shots during the latter’s 2012 Bountygate suspension and was at the controls under Dennis Allen over the past two seasons.

The Saints bounced back from 22nd in scoring offense during the largely Dalton-led season to ninth in 2023. DVOA, however, placed Carmichael’s final Saints unit 17th. Playing through injury, Carr ranked 16th in QBR. That marked an improvement from his McDaniels season, but the Saints were 5-7 at one point after having given Carr a lucrative guarantee.

It is understandable the Saints are making a change here, as they are mostly returning the same skill-position corps — behind an O-line featuring more questions than it did entering 2023. Payton’s longtime right-hand man rejoined him in Denver as a senior offensive assistant, with ex-Saints staffer Joe Lombardi already in place as OC.

Kubiak, who was in Denver during the team’s disastrous Nathaniel Hackett-coached season, rebounded under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Working as the 49ers’ pass-game coordinator, Kubiak (and an unmatched skill corps) helped Brock Purdy to a historic 9.6 yards per attempt. Among QBs who played a full season, no one has matched that number since the 1950s. The 49ers’ all-world offense hummed to another Super Bowl, nearly producing three 1,000-yard receivers, and Kubiak followed Mike McDaniel and Mike LaFleur in receiving a promotion after a period on Shanahan’s staff.

Kubiak called plays briefly under Hackett, with the embattled HC initially going around then-OC Justin Outten due to the second-generation coach’s experience in the role. But his only season as a full-timer holding the call sheet came in 2021 — Mike Zimmer‘s final Vikings season. Minnesota’s QBs coach prior to that season, Kubiak oversaw a 14th-place offensive ranking that year.

The 37-year-old staffer is implementing a version of the West Coast Offense in New Orleans, having extensive training — from Shanahan and father Gary Kubiak — on this subject. This will represent quite the adjustment for the Saints, who have largely been in the same offense since 2006.

It does not look like the Saints are adjusting Kamara’s contract. Doing so would push more money into the future. While that is generally Loomis’ bread-and-butter play, the team has already gone to the restructure well with Kamara twice. Set to play out his age-29 season, the declining running back would represent $25MM in cap savings if designated a post-June 1 cut next year.

After leaving minicamp due to a contract issue, Kamara begrudgingly returned to the team in training camp. The former Pro Bowler had sought an adjustment to a deal authorized in 2020, making this the longest-running active RB contract, but the Saints have not budged. Even another restructure may have appeased Kamara, but this partnership — absent a substantial pay cut in 2025 — appears near the end.

The Saints are not going to pay Kamara’s $22.4MM 2025 base salary — a number put in place to inflate the RB’s AAV to $15MM, which still ranks second at the position — and considering the next round of cap hell the Saints are plunging into, creating this much space without a restructure figures to be where the organization will turn next year. Kamara, who dazzled early in his career, has missed 10 games since 2021; three of those came due to a 2023 suspension for a 2022 assault. The Saints staple produced the fourth-worst rushing yards over expected number (minus-99) last season, and while Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller may not be successor options, the team will not keep Kamara on this contract much longer.

Part of the Saints’ trajectory-reshaping 2017 draft class along with Kamara, Lattimore, Marcus Williams, Trey Hendrickson and others, Ramczyk is a three-time All-Pro who has been one of this period’s best right tackles. The Saints rewarded him for his work with a then-top-market extension (five years, $96MM) before the 2021 season. But Ramczyk has run into knee trouble that threatens his career.

The Wisconsin alum had been feared to miss the 2024 season months in advance, and the Saints put an end to any suspense early by placing him on their reserve/PUP list in July. The timing of that move knocks Ramczyk out for the season and thrusts the Saints into a difficult situation.

Penning has not panned out. The 2022 No. 19 overall pick brought considerable potential out of the Division I-FCS ranks, but he missed most of his rookie season due to injury and was quickly benched from the left tackle post last season. The Saints moved the Northern Iowa alum to the right side during their offseason program, as it became clear Ramczyk was not in their 2024 plans. Penning’s training camp has not gone well, and Oli Udoh — who started at right guard during Kubiak’s lone Vikings OC season — looms as the emergency backup. If Penning continues to struggle, Udoh (two starts since 2021) would be a massive downgrade from Ramczyk.

The final first-round pick of the Payton era, Turner missed 15 games last season. That came after he played in just 13 over his first two years. The Houston alum has not come close to justifying his draft slot, and Granderson passed him on the depth chart. Rumors about Turner’s roster spot being in jeopardy surfaced before his toe injury last year. With three sacks in three seasons, the 25-year-old defender needs a major turnaround to avoid being labeled as one of this decade’s biggest busts.

Top 10 cap charges for 2024:

  1. Alvin Kamara, RB: $18.55MM
  2. Marshon Lattimore, CB: $14.62MM
  3. Cameron Jordan, DE: $13.85MM
  4. Derek Carr, QB: $12.67MM
  5. Ryan Ramczyk, RT: $12.29MM
  6. Taysom Hill, QB/RB/WR/TE: $9.2MM
  7. Demario Davis, LB: $9MM
  8. Juwan Johnson, TE: $7MM
  9. Erik McCoy, C: $6.52MM
  10. Tyrann Mathieu, S: $5.57MM

Seven starters remain from the final Brees year, with Granderson also with the team as a backup at that point. Other imported veterans are present here as well. Considering the past three seasons’ showings, it is worth wondering if this roster is worth the arduous cap-compliance exercises Loomis goes through to support it. Despite the Falcons’ Kirk Cousins addition, the NFC South could conceivably again be within the Saints’ grasp. But it is difficult to see upward mobility from there.

After a regrettable Raiders tenure, Allen is 24-46 as a head coach. Squarely on the hot seat, the third-year Saints leader — his defensive acumen aside — appears to face a difficult task to stave off an ouster. A Saints rebuild would be painful for at least a year, and while Loomis has been an unparalleled cap manipulator, it is worth wondering how much is left for this nucleus.

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