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Offseason In Review: Jacksonville Jaguars

August 12th, 2024 at 9:59pm CST by Sam Robinson

Offseason optimism gave way to disappointment for the 2023 Jaguars, and coaching changes commenced. Though, the ’24 offseason turned into one centered on doubling down on the team’s core performers. Jacksonville set a franchise record with its Josh Hines-Allen extension and then broke it weeks later by re-upping Trevor Lawrence. Although the Jags may be at a crossroads, the payments they authorized point to a belief in the current direction.

After a late-season slide moved the Jags from first place in the AFC to 9-8 and watching the Texans now receive the offseason hype driven by a rookie-contract quarterback, Doug Pederson faces pressure in Year 3. While the former Super Bowl-winning HC elevated the team after the Urban Meyer disaster, he will need to restore the momentum the 2022 season’s second half brought.

Extensions and restructures:

The Jags have not won 10 games in a season since 2017. Prior to that, the last such instance came in 2007. As such, they have not assembled a core worthy of extensive extension rumors in a while. That changed this offseason, with a franchise tag coming out for Hines-Allen and Lawrence talks beginning in February. While the Jags did not discuss a Hines-Allen extension until he had played out his fifth-year option season, they followed the recent blueprint for first-round QBs and hammered out a deal with Lawrence before his fourth season. As a result, Lawrence joins Patrick Mahomes as the only NFLers signed into the 2030s.

Hines-Allen’s extension, agreed to in April, held the franchise record for a short time. Lawrence agreed to terms in June with a contract that looks less out of step following the subsequent Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa accords. Like the Packers and Dolphins, the Jaguars received no real discount and are betting Lawrence has more levels to unlock during his extension years.

The former No. 1 overall pick submitted inconsistency on his rookie contract, but flashes have emerged — most brightly during the 2022 stretch run that included a historic wild-card comeback win — to the point the Jags have more certainty in comparison to the Packers. But Lawrence must display notable growth if he is to live up to this record-tying contract.

The Jags matched Joe Burrow‘s $55MM AAV, though Lawrence’s deal checks in third among guarantees at signing ($142MM) and in total guarantees ($200MM). Love and Tagovailoa did not match the Jags QB here, but Jacksonville did better in terms of cost certainty by locking in its starter through 2030. Love and Tua, who were going into contract years, are signed through 2028. Lawrence followed Burrow and Justin Herbert as first-rounders with two years of control remaining to sign five-year extensions. This will allow the Jags a longer runway to defray their passer’s cap hits, making the deal more manageable and allowing for more action this offseason.

This is new territory for the franchise, which has seen a number of QB investments fail. Byron Leftwich never secured an extension, and Blaine Gabbert did not make it far into his rookie contract before being benched. Blake Bortles‘ exploits have been well chronicled here, and although the team authorized an $18MM-per-year deal shortly after the 2017 team’s journey to the AFC championship game, it bailed on the extension a year later to jump into an ill-advised Nick Foles free agency agreement. Lawrence arrived two years later and has yet to put it all together.

In terms of QBR, Lawrence has finished 28th, 17th and 17th from 2021-23. He memorably threw one touchdown pass from Halloween to New Year’s Day during a miserable 2021 rookie season, and the 2022 team started 3-7. The late-season surge that year generated 2023 hype, but Lawrence then sustained a litany of injuries — the last of those causing his first NFL absence — that impacted his play in a 14-interception season. While the Dolphins opted to wait until Tagovailoa’s fifth year for a larger sample size to form, the Jags moved full speed ahead with a pre-Year 4 re-up.

The Jags will bet on health and their new receiver investments boosting the fourth-year QB, whose contract contains three fully guaranteed years and most of the 2027 base salary guaranteed at signing. With Lawrence’s 2028 base salary and option bonus vesting one year early, the Jags are pot-committed for a lengthy period. This contract promises to make Lawrence at least the second-longest-tenured QB1 in team history. The franchise will eventually hope Lawrence surpasses Mark Brunell‘s nine-season tenure; this deal provides the runway.

Hines-Allen, who will separate himself from the Bills quarterback with an offseason name tweak, came through in a contract year with a franchise-record 17.5 sacks. This well-timed surge prompted a franchise tag and a commitment that makes the sixth-year edge rusher the second-highest-paid player at his position. Like Lawrence, the Jags have not seen Hines-Allen perform at a consistently high level; prior to 2023, he had not eclipsed 7.5 sacks in a season since his 2019 rookie year.

Resisting trade interest on the former top-10 pick prior to the 2022 deadline, the Pederson-Trent Baalke regime saw the Tom Coughlin-Dave Caldwell-era draftee spearhead the team’s pass rush last season. With Travon Walker not yet harnessing the skillset the Jags invested in atop the 2022 draft, Hines-Allen took over. He added 17 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles last season. The Jags based Hines-Allen’s extension on the terms the Giants authorized for trade pickup Brian Burns. Hines-Allen, 27, received $500K more guaranteed in total ($88MM) and $500K in additional guarantees at signing ($76.5MM).

It pays to deliver a breakthrough season at a premium position, and the Jags do have the advantage of Walker being tied to a rookie contract through 2025. Their ability to keep him at rookie terms through 2026 via the fifth-year option will be beneficial now that Hines-Allen is on a lucrative second contract.

Jacksonville was not through paying its cornerstone performers just yet. Despite the record-setting payouts to Hines-Allen and Lawrence, the team found the necessary space to pay its top cornerback. Campbell joined the Jags two rounds after Lawrence in 2021. While Meyer’s coaching stint was an unmitigated disaster, the team has made commitments to three of his draftees — counting Travis Etienne‘s fifth-year option. Campbell cashed in during an offseason in which the CB market settled a bit. No record-breaking deals occurred at the position, but Jacksonville’s top cover man followed Jaylon Johnson and L’Jarius Sneed in doing quite well in terms of contract structure.

Not extended after a franchise tag tag like the Bears and Titans corners, Campbell scored the seventh-highest CB contract ($19.13MM per year) to come in ahead of Johnson and Sneed. Campbell, 24, did receive slightly less guaranteed in total ($53.4MM) than the two tagged defenders, but he is in good position to earn every dollar. The team also agreed on a rolling guarantee structure with Campbell, who will see a 2026 option bonus become fully guaranteed in 2025 and more than half his 2027 base salary shift to a full guarantee by March 2026. This will provide security for the Georgia alum, who will see some new blood working alongside him this coming season.

Going into the final season of a three-year, $45MM deal, Oluokun took a pay cut — in terms of AAV — in exchange for security. The Jags gave the seventh-year tackling machine an additional $21.5MM fully guaranteed to drop his salary to $10MM per year. As the Jags cut three of the free agent defenders they signed under Baalke (Folorunso Fatukasi, Rayshawn Jenkins, Darious Williams), they prioritized the linebacker from the 2022 FA class.

Considering the production the 29-year-old defender has delivered (a staggering 549 tackles over the past three seasons), it was a bit odd he agreed to a reduction on his third contract. While the Jags had what turned out to be a momentous offseason on the contract front, they locked in the former Falcons starter at a favorable rate through 2027. This flew under the radar, and while the ILB market has taken a hit, the NFL’s 2021 and ’22 tackles leader passed on hitting free agency ahead of his age-30 season in 2025 to cash in with the Jags once again.

Free agency additions:

At wide receiver, this Jags offseason featured some moving parts. The team signed Davis when plans were in place to retain Calvin Ridley; the Davis deal also occurred with Zay Jones still on the roster. With both the 2023 regulars gone, the four-year Bills Stefon Diggs sidekick is now in place to try and expand the Jags’ long-range game. This had become a station-to-station offense, and the team’s free agency and draft efforts set out to adjust that.

Hyping up his own market, Davis (or a member of his camp) noted the former fourth-round pick paced the NFL in first-down rate, touchdown rate and average depth of target since 2020. Davis’ effort may have helped, as he secured a nice guarantee and AAV. The former fourth-round pick indeed excelled as a downfield option in Buffalo, though he undoubtedly benefited from defenses’ attention to Diggs and the talents of his quarterback. Josh Allen did find Davis consistently for scores, running that number to 27 in four seasons; that does not count the four-TD showing the 25-year-old weapon posted against the Chiefs in the 2021 divisional-round classic.

The Davis deal also emerged after the team showed interest in Mike Evans, but the career-long Buccaneer opted to stay in Tampa rather than test free agency. The player the Jags ended up with profiles as a boom-or-bust addition, but Davis should at least assist in spreading the field for underneath targets Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.

Not many players from Baalke’s 49ers teams remain in the NFL; Armstead, however, played a central role for a set of high-end San Francisco defenses during the ensuing Kyle Shanahan era. Offered a substantial pay cut by the 49ers, Armstead balked and found a healthy market. The Bills showed interest, and Texans HC DeMeco Ryans sought a reunion. Instead, Armstead opted to reunite with the GM who drafted him back in 2015.

Teaming with Nick Bosa to form perennially imposing 49ers defensive lines, Armstead started in two Super Bowls and four NFC championship games. He posted 10 sacks in 2019, DeForest Buckner‘s final San Francisco slate, and registered six in 2021. Over the past two seasons, however, injuries have hounded the stalwart D-lineman. Armstead is coming off offseason knee surgery, which still has him on the Jags’ active/PUP list. He hurt the same knee before the 2022 season, a campaign that featured eight missed games and a subsequent foot malady. Baalke’s big guarantee suggests a strong market formed, but the Jags winning these sweepstakes sets up a buyer-beware situation ahead of Armstead’s age-31 season.

Moving on from Williams and Jenkins, the Jags brought in replacements at midlevel prices. Although Darby debuted three years before Williams, he is a year younger (at 30). The CB’s health history adds to the uncertainty of this Baalke FA group.

Over the past seven seasons, Darby has played more than 11 games just twice. Doing so last year (16 games, seven starts) led to the former Super Bowl LII starter receiving another multiyear contract. Pro Football Focus viewed Darby as bouncing back from his underwhelming Broncos tenure, slotting him 36th at the position in 2023. Missing extensive time in both his Broncos seasons and missing 20 games in his three Eagles campaigns makes Darby a significant risk, making it rather interesting one team added both he and Armstead.

Savage is also coming off an inconsistent run, though he carries a first-round pedigree (in 2019) and brings versatility. The Packers used Savage at safety and as a nickel defender. Shortly after the deal was finalized, Pederson mentioned he liked Savage’s slot skills. Savage’s arrival — at what has become a popular safety price rage over the past two free agency periods — the Jags options after they moved on from both Jenkins and their slot of the past several years (Tre Herndon).

PFF graded Savage as the NFL’s 15th-best safety last season, but it is rather telling the Packers gave Xavier McKinney a top-five safety contract rather than re-sign Savage at less than half that price. At 27, though, Savage should have some prime years ahead of him.

Quality center play has eluded the Jags for a while. Brandon Linder could not stay healthy late in his career, and replacement Luke Fortner has not panned out. Ranking Fortner as the NFL’s second-worst center last season, PFF assessed his run blocking as the league’s worst among regulars. Morse is now 32 and has suffered six documented concussions since entering the NFL as a 2015 Chiefs second-round pick. The former Pro Bowler has still started 126 career games. The Bills made Morse one of their cost-cutting moves, but ESPN’s run block win rate metric ranked Morse 10th among all interior O-linemen last season.

With big money going to homegrown pillars, this Jaguars free agency class is filled with question marks. Better talent is on the team’s 2024 roster compared to last season, but this is a high-variance collection of imports.

Re-signings:

With Cleveland joining Morse and Brandon Scherff inside, the Jaguars will boast one of the league’s more experienced interior trios. Rather than make Cleveland a rental after acquiring him midway through a season that spun off axis, the Jags paid middle-class money to retain the ex-second-rounder. The former Viking only made five starts in his nine Jaguars outings, but Cleveland’s second contract will leave no doubt about the team’s plans.

Cleveland (49 starts with Minnesota) fell just short of being the sixth free agent guard to fetch an eight-figure-per-year contract, but this is a quality payday for a player traded for low-end compensation at last year’s deadline. It cost only a sixth-round pick for the Jags to pry Cleveland from the Vikings, and his presence will help a team that did not have a steady option at left guard entering last season.

Notable losses:

Conditions of the Jags’ 2022 Ridley acquisition effectively mandated they would need to wait until the 2024 league year began to re-sign Ridley. As that point neared, it appeared the team would pull that off and retain the former trade pickup to round out an expensive skill-position corps.

The Jaguars looked to have the edge on the Patriots, the other known aggressive suitor as the 2023 league year wrapped, but the Titans’ emergence as a stealth Ridley pursuer changed the equation. A big Tennessee offer — believed to outflank Jacksonville and New England by a notable margin — changed the Baalke-Pederson regime’s WR plans quickly, which carried into the draft.

Having made such a strong effort to keep Ridley after giving Davis a $13MM-per-year deal was interesting for a Jaguars team that has Kirk at $18MM per year (albeit with no 2024 guarantees) and one that extended Engram last summer. Unless the Jags were preparing to release or trade Kirk, it seems unlikely they would have chosen Brian Thomas Jr. in Round 1. Ridley’s departure, then, may be a blessing in disguise for a Jags team that saw its payroll dramatically altered this offseason. Still, Ridley being a one-and-done — not counting his Florida stay while suspended — may sting a bit in the short term.

The Titans’ Ridley offer (four years, $92MM, $46.98MM fully guaranteed) checked in as rather surprising due to the receiver’s age (30 in December) and inconsistent history. While Ridley could certainly have plenty left in the tank after barely playing from 2021-22 — before eclipsing 1,000 yards last year — his age invites concerns. The ex-Falcons first-rounder, who served a full-season gambling ban, helped a team missing Kirk for the stretch run last season. The Jags not extending him, at least, did allow them to retain their 2024 second-rounder. They would have owed Atlanta that pick had they paid Ridley before March 13. Though, the team traded third- and fifth-round picks for one season of Ridley, which is not exactly a good value play.

Baalke’s post-Meyer splurge in free agency produced immediate results. Fatukasi and Williams joined Kirk, Oluokun and Scherff as starters who helped the team recover from two abysmal seasons, leading a surprising charge to the AFC divisional round. Jenkins arrived as a free agent during Meyer’s offseason in charge. With the Fatukasi, Jenkins and Williams’ guarantees up and the Jags needing to create cap space for a Hines-Allen franchise tag and other maneuvers — the Lawrence and Campbell deals among them — these cuts made sense. Past Fatukasi and Jenkins restructures still resulted in a $16MM-plus dead money hit via their releases.

PFF viewed Fatukasi and Jenkins as below-average players last season, while Williams received a top-15 ranking. The Texans and Seahawks respectively scooped up Fatukasi and Jenkins, while Williams followed John Johnson by returning to the Rams. Also part of Baalke’s 2022 FA binge, Jones followed a productive 2022 season (823 yards, five TDs) with an injury- and suspension-marred 2023 (321/2). The eighth-year vet drew extensive interest and landed with the Cardinals.

Jacksonville’s 2020 draft represents part of the reason Baalke is running the show. Caldwell’s final draft brought first-round busts (through four years, at least) in Chaisson and C.J. Henderson. Chaisson delivered just five sacks in four seasons; he signed a low-money deal with Carolina, which recently let Henderson walk. The Jags need Walker to come through this season, as Smoot — before his December 2022 Achilles tear, at least — was a reliable auxiliary edge rusher. The team carries a thin cast behind its starting edge duo, making it worth wondering if another addition — after the team pursued Danielle Hunter and Chase Young last year — will be en route.

Draft:

Linked closely to first-round cornerbacks, the Jags indeed used “30” visits on a few. But their receiving corps revamp extended to the first round of what became an LSU-heavy draft haul. Thomas, who operated as Malik Nabers‘ sidekick in Baton Rouge, landed as a high-second-tier WR prospect. But the 2023 breakout performer led Division I-FBS in receiving touchdowns (17) last season; that certainly played a lead role in Jayden Daniels‘ Heisman campaign. Thomas joins Davis in being expected to bolster the Jaguars’ downfield game.

In addition to nabbing a 2024 fifth-round pick from the Vikings, the Jaguars fetched 2025 third- and fourth-rounders to move down six spots in Round 1. Thomas brings the athletic traits that have appealed to Baalke in the past, pairing a 6-foot-3, 209-pound frame with a 4.33-second 40-yard time. Thomas’ rookie contract suddenly becomes pivotal to the Jags’ mission, as it will supplement Lawrence’s monster extension.

The Jags were among the teams to have inquired about Brandon Aiyuk this offseason, looking into what it would take for the 49ers to part with their top outside receiver during the draft. With San Francisco believed to want a mid-first-rounder at that point, Jacksonville could have met that asking price since it entered the draft with the No. 17 choice. As the Aiyuk saga (and a complicated Jags receiver offseason) continued, the AFC South club kept its pick and opted for a rookie-scale contract at the position.

Keeping in line with a tools-heavy theme, Baalke plucked a former five-star recruit in Round 2. A Thomas LSU teammate, Smith sustained an ACL tear on LSU’s first defensive possession in 2022. He had shown promise as an interior rusher as a freshman in 2021, totaling four sacks. This is a similar case to the Saints’ 2023 Bryan Bresee pick, as sophomore-year injuries derailed both five-star D-linemen. Though, the Jags were able to grab Smith a bit later in this draft. This does profile perhaps as a project pick, but the team was better against the run (ninth) than the pass (26th) last season.

Losing both Williams and Herndon and following through on designs of extending Campbell, the Jags probably needed an early-round cornerback investment. Considering Darby’s checkered injury past, Jones may be needed early. Late-third-round picks are certainly far from sure things, and the 6-footer — a three-year Seminoles starter — never earned first- or second-team All-ACC acclaim. Though, he did clock a 4.38-second 40 time in Indianapolis.

Trades:

Josh McDaniels‘ 2022 New England exit affected Jones more than anyone. After finishing second to Ja’Marr Chase in the 2021 Offensive Rookie of the Year voting, Jones saw his value nosedive over the past two seasons. The Patriots’ bizarre plan to make Matt Patricia their main play-caller predictably backfired. By Year 3 under Bill O’Brien, Jones found himself benched. The quarterback, who irked Bill Belichick by going around the Patriots staff for advice during that disjointed 2022 season, joined four of the five other first-round passers — Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Zach Wilson — in being traded to close out their rookie contracts.

The former Alabama standout will join the one 2021 first-round passer not traded. This may have been the best outcome for Jones, a Jacksonville native, as he will reset behind Lawrence. With C.J. Beathard still under contract, Jones could also give the Jags a trade asset before the deadline.

In 11 starts last season, the former No. 15 overall pick averaged just 6.1 yards per attempt. He ranked 28th in QBR. Jones, 25, ranked 15th in 2021 upon leading the Pats to a 10-7 record. The Jags will attempt to pick up the pieces, though Jones joins Wilson and Lance — and perhaps Fields — as offering minimal appeal as 2025 free agent arms.

Other:

The Jags unraveled after an 8-3 start last season. While Lawrence’s injuries were key part of this undoing, Caldwell’s defense surrendered at least 28 points five times over the team’s final eight games. The team made a curious decision to bring back largely its entire 2022 defense, limiting Caldwell. That said, DVOA ranked Caldwell’s unit 10th. Though, a better first half played into that placement. Nevertheless, Nielsen will lead a new staff after the team axed Caldwell and most of his.

This will be Nielsen’s third DC gig in three years. He served as co-DC alongside Richard with the 2022 Saints and was hired to help an undermanned Falcons unit last year. Arthur Smith‘s firing led Nielsen out as well, but the team did rank 11th in total defense — though, DVOA placed it 24th — in a one-and-done season. The Falcons gave Nielsen permission to interview after Smith’s firing — an opportunity the Panthers denied Evero — and the former Sean Payton assistant did not interview anywhere else.

Nielsen, 45, will shift Jacksonville back to a 4-3 scheme, though base alignments do not mean nearly as much as they once did, and Richard — best known for his Seattle DC years — is rejoining his former coworker after spending last season out of football.

The other side of the ball brings a more interesting decision. It is still not known if Pederson will retake the play-calling reins. Referring to a hypothetical scenario in which Pederson is coaching for his job, Shad Khan said he would want his “hands on the wheel” were he in that situation. Pederson was the team’s primary play-caller in 2022; the offense was less effective with OC Press Taylor as the full-time conductor last season.

The younger brother of Bengals HC Zac Taylor, Press has long been a Pederson favorite. Prior to his Eagles ouster, Pederson planned to elevate Taylor. The 36-year-old assistant, who had never been a full-time NFL play-caller, was working with a beat-up quarterback in 2023. Baalke, however, looked into the state of the offense — with a close eye on Taylor — down the stretch last season. And Khan seemed to indicate he wants Pederson calling plays again. It would, then, be odd if the former Super Bowl-winning HC remains in the CEO role he played last season. Taylor began the preseason with the call sheet, but it would seem he is on a short leash.

Unlike Najee Harris, Etienne saw his fifth-year option exercised. The RB option’s cost will make Etienne’s 2025 guarantee manageable, and the ex-Lawrence Clemson teammate has been effective since missing his entire rookie season with a Lisfranc injury. Etienne, 25, has not missed a game since returning and has offered back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Both years featured 1,400-plus scrimmage yards.

The Jags paid lip service to reducing Etienne’s workload last year, but he exceeded his snap percentage (73%). They will again try to keep their RB1 fresh, though it would surprise if a significant usage reduction ensued.

Wil Lutz initially committed to the Jags but soon reconsidered to stay with Payton in Denver. This came after the team signed Patterson to a reserve/futures contract. Patterson’s pattern of trips in and out of Jacksonville, however, continued after the team waived him early in camp. They also signed and released Joey Slye. Sixth-round pick Cam Little will be asked to stop the carousel, one that included a now-controversial Brandon McManus season in 2023.

Top 10 cap charges for 2024:

  1. Christian Kirk, WR: $24.24MM
  2. Cam Robinson, LT: $21.91MM
  3. Foyesade Oluokun, LB: $15.75MM
  4. Trevor Lawrence, QB: $15.03MM
  5. Brandon Scherff, G: $11.57MM
  6. Joshua Hines-Allen, DE: $11.15MM
  7. Travon Walker, DE: $10.19MM
  8. Evan Engram, TE: $7MM
  9. Tyson Campbell, CB: $6.1MM
  10. DaVon Hamilton, DT: $5.6MM

Desperate to establish a winning trend on his watch, Khan will undoubtedly carry increased expectations after authorizing three big-money extensions. Two years after Baalke needed to use free agency to infuse the roster with talent, the team showed tremendous faith in its young homegrown core.

The AFC South also appears stronger compared to its state during the Jags’ most recent division crown, which featured the Texans and Colts as clear no-hopers. Lawrence not taking a major step forward would suddenly call into question this entire operation. The heat will be on if Pederson’s team cannot re-establish its 2022 form early.

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