AUGUST 19: In the wake of another impressive Nix preseason performance on Sunday, Payton declined to confirm he will get the nod for Week 1. He did indicate (via Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk) he was impressed by Nix’s showing, but no official announcement has been made regarding a starter yet. Both Wilson and Stidham led scoring drives against the Packers, so Denver’s QB depth chart remains uncertain at this point.
AUGUST 16: Jarrett Stidham started the Broncos’ preseason opener, and Zach Wilson remains on the roster. But Bo Nix has long been expected to take over at some point fairly early in the season. That point may now be Week 1.
Rumblings about Nix usurping Stidham to take the reins from the jump have emerged, and the Denver Post’s Troy Renck now offers that “little debate” exists about who will start for the Broncos. Nix, who fared well in his preseason debut, has steadily impressed. An offseason report noted Nix had ground to cover to catch Stidham, but given the team’s investment and the QB’s experience (61 starts), it is unsurprising the gap has narrowed to the point the veteran’s roster spot is not guaranteed.
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Indeed, The Athletic’s Dianna Russini adds it would surprise if Nix were not out there with the starters in Week 1. Nix went 15-for-21 with 125 passing yards against the Colts, throwing a touchdown pass and leading the team to four drives. The Oregon prospect is starting the Broncos’ second preseason game, though Sean Payton said Stidham (4-for-7, 37 yards) would play more Sunday.
Nix opening the season would be new territory for the Broncos, who did not give Drew Lock, Paxton Lynch, Tim Tebow or Jay Cutler the Week 1 keys (Lock started his rookie season on IR; the rest opened their rookie years as backups). No Broncos rookie QB has begun a season as the starter since John Elway 41 years ago, but after taking on a staggering dead money total via the Russell Wilson release, it has always seemed likely Payton would turn to the player he drafted in Round 1.
Regarding Nix’s backup, Wilson’s recent showings have clouded that situation. The ex-Jets bust has looked better in practice recently, Renck adds, and Payton praised his showing against Indianapolis (10-for-13, 117 yards). A Broncos coach called Wilson “rejuvenated,” Russini adds. The former No. 2 overall pick, who has Nix outflanked in terms of raw arm talent, would bring more dead money ($2.73MM) than Stidham ($2MM) if cut, but Renck adds finances are not expected to prominently factor into Denver’s QB2 decision.
Payton kept two QBs last season, carrying Ben DiNucci on the practice squad, and has generally gone with a two-QB setup during his career as a head coach. Of course, Drew Brees‘ durability helped on that front. The Broncos could also keep Stidham and Wilson and listen for trade interest. If the team cut Wilson, he would need to clear waivers to make it back to Denver’s P-squad. Attached to the two-year, $10MM contract he signed in 2023, Stidham is a vested veteran and would go straight to free agency.
Stidham sticking around would provide a veteran presence, even if Wilson has far more starting experience. The latter’s woeful Jets tenure, featuring three benchings and partially involving embattled ex-Broncos HC Nathaniel Hackett, would stand to leave the Broncos vulnerable if Nix suffers an injury. But after initially being dropped out of the starter competition as Stidham remained involved, Wilson has nudged his way back into the conversation for at least making the 53-man roster in his contract year.
Saw like 20 seconds of highlights of Nix and he looked OK.
Should be enough to win THAT job.
And the number of comments indicate how much we care…let’s ride
Why in the world would anyone use a preseason game as an indicator that a guy is ready? I’m sure he looked real good against those 3rd and 4th stringers…
I think preseason is generally used as an indicator to determine who isn’t ready. In any event, what other evaluation options are available at this time of year?
Water is wet
Nix played a lot of downs in NCAA. Wasn’t he a six year starter or something impossible like that? He’s probably ready to start straight out of the gate, if the OC doesn’t hang him out to dry (too complex playbook, holding the ball too long, too many pass plays: just what Eric Bienemy did to Sam Howell in Commie-land).
Howell got sacked something like three times per game over the course of his college career. His tendency to hang himself out to dry is one of the reasons he fell so far in the draft. And it’s hard not to pass a ton when your defense gives up the most points in football.
Nix looked alright. Not great, not terrible. I don’t think that he or Stidham played much better than the other. Nix got a much longer shot, and the normally reliable Perine had one of the all time worst bobbles I’ve ever seen to end Stidham’s first series. Neither looked great, but neither looked bad. Nix made a few deep throws, but his ball placement was hit or miss. It’ll have to improve, you figure, with time, but I saw a few passes that could have been picked off or were not catchable (like his first throw, which was exactly the type of throw he would attempt at Auburn in too tight a window, or his endzone throw to Reynolds-Reynolds is just not a good enough receiver to use his size to make a difficult catch like that, and Nix should learn that).
It’s hard to do a head to head against Stidham, because he barely played, and Stidham’s depth of targets (minus his first throw, which seemed like a clearly drawn up play by the staff that he executed well-and one that Nix could probably do, too) were pretty short. I don’t know if that was all Stidham checking down, or Payton not trusting him with deeper throws, or it just being early in the game. It is the preseason, after all, which is basically practice, and with a QB competition, the coach wants to test specific things to get a feel for how each player executes.
I expect fully that Nix will start, just due to his draft status and youth and upside, but I don’t think that starting Stidham would be bad. The main reason for this is that Denver’s offense, outside of the quarterback, still made a few mistakes in execution and penalties, and the running back rotation still looks up in the air, as well as the WR2-4 spots. Letting Nix start after those spots get solidified won’t take away much, I don’t think, especially since Nix still looks like he’s making a few too many college big play attempts like he did at Auburn against better defenses than he faced at Oregon. I don’t think that that will happen, and I don’t think that it’s a do or die thing, but I also don’t think that Denver loses much by letting Stidham start for a while as Payton figures out the other offensive kinks to be ready for Nix when he comes in. Filling the receiving TE spot for instance, hopefully with a healthy Dulcich, will be a great boon to a young QB who scrambles around a lot in the backfield.
Stidham and Wilson are known zeros. Why not roll the dice with the new kid?
Often a rookie QB will benefit from a a year or even half a season on the bench to deeply learn the more complex pro playbook, get used to the speed of the game in practice and generally be ready.
Starting a rookie QB too soon can get them beat up and kill their fearlessness (textbook case Sam Darnold, recent instance, Sam Howell). Counter-example: Jordan Love. When Love came into the league, he was not ready and would have been a disaster for a couple of seasons with uncertain results. A few years sulking (and learning) behind Aaron Rodgers, and Love has been hot out of the gate in his firsts starting season. I expect a sophomore season relapse as defenses figure out Love’s weaknesses, but the Packers are getting Mahomes-level play out of a guy who was pretty ordinary. Mahomes also sat a year behind Alex Smith, who has always been a good teacher. Unfortunately there’s no one in Denver from whom Nix can learn anything.
Look at David Carr. The Texans ruined him by throwing him into the fire too soon.
Good point. RGIII was asked to do too much too soon, before he learned to protect himself from NFL linebackers and safeties.
Similar sad tale with Andrew Luck, although he lasted more years than RGIII and played at a consistently high level. So Luck is not the best example as he started as a rookie and continue to play for seven years, even as a broken man. Had Luck been given a bit of time to learn the pro game first, instead of thrown straight into the frying pan, his career could have been longer and more illustrious.
Word on the street is stidham probably gets dealt. Wilsons looked a lot better in practice as of late than him as well. I still think Nix will surprise people and look a lot better than what people give him credit for. Dude also has wheels.
Payton is so annoying lmao I literally saw him grinning as Nix was out there he’s obviously the guy haha
I remember Blake Bortels shining in his rookie preseason game as well.
Arty I remember too when you said Rus was still a top tier qb.
Alec, that philosophy of benching 1st year QBs is pretty much over. Stroud showed that last year. Use them while they’re on cheap contracts to bolster the rest of the team. Sure it probably better for them to learn the playback, get reps in, etc. But teams aren’t going to let an asset take up a roster spot. Players nowadays arent as naive as they were 20 years ago. But many don’t have 4 years in the NCAA either. Nix will have Payton and the OC to learn from. Not a bad situation. Roethlisbeger was known not to help rookie QBs because he wanted to keep his job.
I think every situation is a bit different. Some QBs enter the NFL farther along the learning curve than others. Some are lucky enough to land with teams that can give them good OL support while others aren’t so lucky. Some might have a run game available to relieve some of the pressure while the others don’t. Stroud had some very nice receiving targets to work with while the only reliable receiver in Carolina was an aging veteran named Thielen.