Jordan Love, Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa represent the next set of dominoes expected to fall within the quarterback market this summer, with the Jared Goff and Trevor Lawrence deals providing early road maps for the Packers, Cowboys and Dolphins. As of now, Miami does not appear to be comfortable with where the market has gone.
Tagovailoa alluded to progress being made earlier this month while also reminding where the QB market has gone, perhaps sending a message to the Dolphins regarding his value following the extensions for Goff ($53MM per year) and Lawrence (record-tying $55MM AAV). It looks like any progress between the Dolphins and their QB has stalled, with ESPN.com’s Jeff Darlington indicating during an NFL Live appearance (h/t Omar Kelly of the Miami Herald) the team has not offered a deal in step with those the Lions and Jaguars proposed to their top passers.
The Dolphins having yet to offer a market-value extension, per Darlington, certainly introduces a speedbump in these talks. But Tagovailoa turned down at least one offer from the team earlier this offseason. The sides are still working toward a middle ground, but given the form (when healthy) the former No. 5 overall pick has shown, it is difficult to see him accepting an extension south of where the Jags went for Lawrence. The latter’s prospect pedigree and growth potential aside, Tua has fared better — albeit with superior weaponry — over the past two seasons.
Miami not being on the Goff or Lawrence level with Tagovailoa does not surprise Kelly, who indicates the team is “dug in” regarding the southpaw arm’s value. This certainly creates the potential for a standoff, as the Dolphins — due to Tua’s uneven first three seasons — already dragged this process into a contract year, a place teams rarely go with first-round passers on rookie deals. The parties have been negotiating since mid-April.
The Dolphins joining the Ravens in not extending their starter after Year 3 — when these deals usually move past the goal line for first-rounders — preceded a fairly promising season from the Alabama alum. Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards and threw 29 TD passes, though 14 INTs came along with those. Tagovailoa ranked third in QBR during his concussion-marred 2022 slate and 10th last season, when he played 17 games and took the snaps in Miami’s one-sided wild-card loss.
Taking a hardline stance with Tua runs the risk of the Dolphins having their quarterback move toward a 2025 franchise tag. Considering this year’s QB tag price ($38.3MM), that almost doubles as a weapon for Tagovailoa given the cap hold a 2025 tag would create for a Dolphins team that dealt with cap issues this offseason. The Dolphins, who extended Jaylen Waddle recently and appear open to revising Tyreek Hill‘s contract, are projected to be — albeit several months away from the cap-compliance deadline — $9MM-plus over the 2025 cap without any Tua money factoring into that number.
The arrivals of Hill and Mike McDaniel have undoubtedly played major roles in Tagovailoa’s emergence, but the latter proving himself a productive quarterback through his age-25 season obviously creates considerable leverage. The playoff starter missed several Dolphins offseason workouts due to his contract situation, though he showed up midway through Miami’s program. It will be interesting to see how far apart the sides are, as more than two months still remain until Week 1.
Smart decision. Tua is injury prone, has a noodle arm and has been awful in every big game he’s played. Dude wants 50 million a year because he can do well early in the season when it’s hot out
The way these QB contracts are going – with Tua, Daniel’s as another example. Or any of these middling QB’s getting these ridiculous deals – seems better to continuously draft a QB every other year and let them sit, learn and practice and be ready for there shot.
Stop paying huge cap money to middling QB’s or system QB’s, as Tua is, and spent that cap money on the skill players to support the QB.
Can we stop with the “Tua is injury prone” talk? Everything else is a valid argument against him but the injury prone tag is just an overreaction to those concussions he suffered. Yes he had a bad hip injury in college and those concussions he suffered two years ago are bad, neither are directly related to each other. You know who he has played more games than in the past four years? Joe Burrow. Don’t think I’ve ever seen Joe Burrow labeled as injury prone despite all of his injuries being hand/wrist and leg injuries. Mahomes seems to twist/sprain his ankle every year and he doesn’t get the injury prone tag either.
Tua *is* injury prone. And Joe Burrow’s availability is becoming a huge problem for the Bengals.
Betting the entire team on the QB and QB play has worked for the KC Chiefs with Mahomes but it doesn’t seem to be a very solid strategy, particularly if a team’s QB is fragile.
Agreed. The 49ers strategy of building a terrific roster then adding a QB, even the last guy taken in the 7th round, seems like a better plan than paying a guy like Daniel Jones way too much and hoping he will elevate a less than terrific roster. If your roster is going to be less than terrific, then you better have Mahomes at QB. Only one team can win that way, everybody else better be looking for cheap, efficient QB play.
That’s not how the 49ers built their team though – you’re conveniently forgetting the Trey Lance pick, and giving Jimmy G 5/137. Brock Purdy becoming a fantastic QB from the 7th round was never the strategy.
It’s amazing how quickly fans can re-write a narrative.
Not a 49ers fan. Their plan was not to have Lance fail, but it was to have a QB on a rookie deal. They were fortunate with Purdy, but the reason it worked is that they made their own luck and added Purdy to a championship roster. Purdy would not elevate the Giants roster or be interchangeable with Mahomes. That is my point. Having the roster in place is what gave the 49ers the ability to pivot from Lance when plan A didn’t pan out. The Giants had no plan B once Jones didn’t play well/got hurt because their roster isn’t good enough. I hope all the 49ers step on a Lego.
Will they drop the money anchor? I think Jordan Love has earned a pay raise. Still not sure about Tua’s ceiling and Dak but I think Jerry will pay him more than likely. The true wild card here is Tua in my opinion
The reality is the Jags well over paid on Trevor, he is NOT THE BEST QB but they paid him that way.
Tua is in similar situation a very capable QB but far from elite. Teams like the Browns, Jags, Titans (with Tannehill) can really handcuff team for years with crappy value contracts
The problem is which “market” are we talking about. Tua needs to look at the Geno Smith contract for a comp, not Mahomes.
Tua plays about half a season +2 games. Is Tua willing to play for $50 million/year x his availability?
That would put Tua’s long term contract at $30 million/year, a number which the Dolphins would be willing to invest in Tua. Full guarantees are impossible as Tua will more than likely have to retire (concussions) in two years.
Anything else is handcuffing the Dolphins to huge dead money payments, crippling their roster in the medium-term.
I get the hesitancy regarding Tua, but if the Dolphins don’t pay him on that level, they’re going to have to do it for someone else. Hill is complicating the matter for them by trying to get another increase right now, even as Miami is having to deal with his squadmates.
The franchise tag seems like a bargain right now. Buying another year at less than $50 million in today’s environment seems like a no brainer, especially if the Dolphins are unconvinced that Tagovailoa is worth the market rate. Eventually, though, they’re going to have to pay somebody that money, whether it’s Tua or somebody else down the road.
You could tag him twice and still be less than guaranteeing at the “market level” for those two years. They seem to be concerned that the next hit could be another concussion and then your finances are potentially screwed like Washington was with Alex Smith.
Yeah, I agree. If you’re worried about the market rate, you’ll have to do the tag. You’re putting off the inevitable, of course. Do we think that, in two years, quarterback salaries will go up, or go down? If Dolphins think that they want to keep Tua long term, they may consider that biting the bullet today instead of in 2026. If not, then the tags will be much cheaper than what is the current rate for a young starter at QB.
Tua doesn’t have a long term, Ak185. He’s damaged goods. Heck of a football player, but if he keeps on going for much longer those concussions will turn him into the faded Mohammed Ali, but much younger.
I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see the tag. I don’t dare venture to guess how long Tagovailoa may play, but it does feel like he’s possibly on a timer. I wouldn’t say that I’m scared of investment totally, but you can’t deny being in the back of your mind. If that does happen, how you approach the middle years? Two tags look cheaper, at the moment, than a contract.
If Miami didn’t have two big receiver contracts already on offense (with an increase in one of them looming on the horizon), perhaps this would be simpler. I wouldn’t be shocked or against Miami doing a deal with Tua, but I also understand the hesitancy. His showing looking like a bag of bones didn’t help alleviate some of the concerns about taking hits. Hopefully there wasn’t an issue he had with his health, outside of football.
Just give him $100m a year that’s where we’ll be soon for an average QB
When “It’s All About The QB!” you have an easy excuse for getting smoked by Buffalo, Baltimore, Philly, K.C.
Lawrence made Miami have to pay him more, even with his concussion problems I’d take Tua over Lawrence every day they’re both healthy.
In what world is Tua a better option than Lawrence? Look past stats and consider their surrounding cast. It’s not close.
A world where Tua stays healthy. Why should someone look past stats when talking about contracts? Lawrence becoming the highest paid ever is hilarious because he isn’t and possibly never will be even a top 5 qb while he plays. Paying him when he doesn’t have the best surrounding cast isn’t going to make them any better unless they hit on every draft pick.
So the question is do the Dolphins want to be tied to a long term contract… 4 or 5 years at 45-50 million a year or just get his prime years with his contract this season (14 million) and tag him at least once and maybe twice. Given his health history it seems to me that it would be cheaper in the long run to just tag him during his prime. I don’t think he will age well and he wouldn’t play up to his contract in years 4 and 5
The problem is that Tua may think he’s more valuable and hold out, which can’t be a good thing for a team.
Guaranteeing $250 million to a QB who won’t play more than two further seasons of football (and probably half seasons at that) would be much worse for the team.