Justin Jefferson is one of several high-profile players currently absent from OTAs in the NFL. Missing out on voluntary workouts, the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year is in talks with the Vikings on a monster extension. 
Jefferson is a strong candidate to become the league’s top earner at the receiver position. Given his age (24) and the historic start to his career, however, that may not be the bar he is aiming for. Outkick’s Armando Salguero reports Jefferson is “expecting” to surpass Nick Bosa as the league’s highest-paid non-quarterback.
Bosa’s 49ers deal, signed last offseason, carries an AAV of $34MM. That figure comfortably moved him to the top of the pecking order amongst defenders (although Chris Jones is now not far behind) and it surpassed the top of the receiver market at the time. Tyreek Hill‘s $30MM-per-season Dolphins contract has been eclipsed recently by new deals for Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) and A.J. Brown (Eagles).
The latter pact is worth an average of $32MM per season, and it therefore represents the new target for Jefferson and other extension-eligible wideouts. Salguero notes Jefferson has already turned down one offer which would have allowed him to top the receiver market, but that was before Brown’s deal was signed. Talks with the Vikings nearly produced an agreement last offseason, but instead the LSU alum remains on track for free agency next year as things stand. Jefferson is set to earn $19.74MM in 2024 on his fifth-year option.
A multi-year pact will check in at a much larger rate, although particular figures regarding AAV are not known at this point in negotiations. Salguero adds the three-time Pro Bowler was previously seeking $40MM annually, but that may no longer be the case. That figure matches the AAV of the contracts quarterbacks Daniel Jones, Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott are presently attached to.
With respect to guaranteed compensation, Salguero reports Jefferson is aiming for roughly $100MM on his next deal. Only eight contracts in the league are at that mark in terms of total guarantees; all of them, unsurprisingly, belong to quarterbacks. It will be interesting to see if Jefferson manages to reach (or at least approach) his asking price in terms of total and guaranteed money.
Minnesota has a cost-effective quarterback room with Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy positioned to replace Kirk Cousins in the short and long term. The team’s skill position group features one expensive pact (tight end T.J. Hockenson), but wideout Jordan Addison will be attached to his rookie contract for at least the next three years. An expensive new deal for left tackle Christian Darrisaw will likely be on the Vikings’ books down the road, but it will pale in comparison to the one Jefferson will have if talks can produce a market-topping agreement.
Why would he not?
May as well get it done now before they have to pay $50m for their QB in a few years.
I imagine the Vikings are hoping Jefferson can continue to thrive without an elite and costly QB the way Larry Fitzgerald did with the Cardinals for most of his career.
He might as well cash in now because he’s going to get killed by that collection of QB’s hanging him out to dry. I mean nobody will ever mistake Cousins for Tom Brady but he was huge strides ahead what’s there now. These guys passes will lead him onto a stretcher before they improve. Things are going to get worse for him before they get better.
I mean, Speaking as a Bears fan we’ve seen what really happens when you kid yourself into thinking the 5th best QB in the draft turns into gold.
They’d actually have to have a QB worth paying that first…..
Stay tuned: Jefferson will be traded or will become a free agent.
My guess is Jefferson will sign the biggest receiver contract in NFL history and you will make a joke about how he’s movin’ on up.
smh
Don’t be surprised if Jefferson is:
Movin’ on up to an East Coast team.
(Or a West Coast team.)
With a big revenue stream and a big budget.
So he can get his big piece of the pie !!
seriously? there is a salary cap. the Vikings are always paying up to the cap. such an ignorant coastal bias post.
Agreed. This entire thread is ignorant.
The Vikings can control JJ for 3 more seasons. Cry all you want about your contract.
I would trade him regardless if you could get a haul in return. They were fine without him last season.
You pay a QB and not a WR.
OK, they could control him for three more seasons at 100% guaranteed salaries they can’t restructure while alienating their best player. They have a plan at QB and they aren’t even allowed to pay him serious money for three years. Having an elite receiver would help develop him, which is their biggest priority.
I Think Hes Gonna Ask For A Trade. Sleeper Team To Get Him In My Opinion Is The Arizona Cardinals. Pair Him With Midget Murray, Marvin Harrison, James Conner, Trey Benson & Trey Mcbride Just Imagine
That would be one heck of a WR room.
This looks like a very long title to a country song…
A BAD country song.
One hundred gazillion dollars
I think he’ll have to change his name to Ohtani and move to L.A. for that to happen…lol.
It’s worth a gamble!
One Million Dollars!
I’d sign him to a massive contract then trade him in a year or two.
What’s the point of that?
This is a tale for the ages. Bubble team over using a star WR. They inflated his worth and ego. Chase will do the same. But you know who didn’t. The team that fed equal ball to a veteran. Enter Eagles. They got the deal in modest range because it’s a team sport. Classic
I think the Eagles did some very good things during the off season to shore up their weaknesses. A little surprised that 7 teams have lower SB odds to start the season.
Because Hurts chokes.
The defense was responsible for the late season decline but the Eagles went out and hired Vic Fangio who is one of the best defensive minds in football. If the 49ers stumble, I think the Eagles have an excellent shot at getting back to the SB.
35 a year over 5 years with 100 guaranteed seems like a way better deal than the 2 deals the Lions signed, which both seemed high.
If Jefferson doesn’t want to do at least a partly team-friendly deal (topping the receiver market would do it), and is looking to break salary records, then:
1. make him play out his rookie contract (2024; fifth year option)
2. tag him once (2025)
3. trade him in his tag year (2025) before the deadline
If 2025 looks like a championship year in Vikings world, then keep Jefferson and accept the third round compensation (or tag him again in 2026 and trade him to the highest bidder, who would rework a new guaranteed contract, Jefferson wouldn’t play or be paid on tag two).
What won’t work is paying everyone $30 million+. The salary cap is under $300 million (to keep it simple) and a team has to field at least 22 players, even if we don’t count place kickers and punters (as they are cheap). That works out to $13 million per starter.
Any single player whose price goes too high means your team has either crippled its defense or its offense or both.
Possible exception for QB’s or a Lawrence Taylor/Micah Parsons level linebacker/wrecking ball on defense.
Paying Tyreek Hill has been a huge boon to the Dolphins offense. Minnesota has a quarterback slated to make something like $22 million over the next four years. They have a ton of cap space coming their way. Their number two receiver isn’t eligible for an extension for another two years. They can afford to pay an elite player at an elite value position elite money.
Elite numbers yes but insane numbers no. These long term guaranteed contracts in the $30 million range will hobble almost every contender. Too many eggs in one or two baskets.
Bad enough to bet the farm on a QB but it’s insanity to do so on a WR. QB’s get special protection, teams with single ultra elite players will find those players targeted by division rivals.
That’s why they invested another first rounder in Addison last year and traded for Hockensen. Miami’s problem was that in addition to Hill they gave out huge contracts to Ogbah, Chubb, howard, and Armstead. Minnesota will have tons of breathing room after this year even if they give Jefferson a top of the line contract. He’s a top five receiver in the league and he’s young. What’s the point in having tons of money if you don’t keep a guy like that? You should pony up for the kinds of guys who play high value positions at the kind of level and age you’re almost never going to find on the trade or free agent market. Especially when we’ve seen how true number one receivers can elevate young QBs.
You know what would elevate a team? A top-tier right tackle and Derrick Henry in his prime, when he was earning $12 million/year. The tackle will cost you $20 million. There’s still money left over for a very good $10 million/year receiver (what a team would have paid for an ordinary running back and an ordinary tackle).
The Vikings already have a strong pair of tackles. And top tier tackles don’t generally reach free agency. Shelling out for veteran running backs isn’t nearly as beneficial as top receivers, and the Vikings did sign Aaron Jones. As for receivers, $10 million isn’t even enough to land Darnell Mooney now. I’m confused as to why people seem to see it as a burden to have an elite receiver. There are teams happy to spend first round picks AND mega contracts to acquire legit number one receivers. If you can have one for just the contract, especially a young one, that’s a big win.
You know what pares well with a large WR contract? A Rookie QB deal.
Vikings are loading up for a 2025-2028/29 window. There’s a reason that Kirko signed elsewhere. GM Kwesi, aka KAM, has had this in the works for a while. MN had a line in the sand on dollar amount & term guarantees for QB….Kirk didn’t fit the frame.
JJets#18 was almost signed last year. He’ll get his bag & the attention that comes with it soon enough. Likely in the next 2-3 weeks.
2024 is a transition year for MN. NFC North Division is going to be really tough. Lions are good, Packers are pretty good & Chicago is ascending. NFL rubes will see it, but casual fans that only think about their coast or region might not.
Spot on. They’re short a lot of draft picks, but they’ll have tons of cap space next year even if they sign Jefferson. And if you’ve already got WR1, WR2, your QB, two tackles, and two pass rushers locked in, the rest is much easier to fill.
Yes & if the D can settle in with the CB’s they got……even tho they lost D Hunter, the pass rush looks drastically better on paper. The “who’s coming” game at the line of scrimmage got a LOT more complex for opposing offenses after this off-season.
If the Vikes can stop the run…..the Flores-led Defense could really show out in 2024.
This could really make MN a squad that really gives other team’s fits, even with a Journeyman or Rookie QB at the healm of the offense.
Vikings should know the market is only getting more expensive
His performance and his youth will definitely get him a massive payday. Jefferson is good for a young QB because he can get open by a good margin among other things. He doesn’t need a top notch qb to produce like most others