Representation in Super Bowls has not stretched wide in the AFC over the past decade. Since 2013, all of four franchises — the Broncos, Patriots, Chiefs and Bengals — have represented the conference in Super Bowls. The NFC in that span has produced seven Super Bowl entrants.
Since 2001, QB-driven graphics regarding Super Bowl participation primarily feature four faces — those of Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Patrick Mahomes. An AFC team employing a QB outside that quartet has only reached the Super Bowl three times (2002 Raiders, 2012 Ravens, 2021 Bengals) in 24 seasons. As the NFC has rolled out 21 Super Bowl QB starters since Brady’s first appearance, it has been quite difficult for outsiders to forge a path in the AFC.
This space used to ask which team was best positioned to KO the Patriots in the AFC. The Chiefs ended up getting there, first loading up around Mahomes’ rookie contract before assembling a low-cost (but highly effective) defense to help a team suddenly limited — beyond the Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection’s enduring brilliance — following the Tyreek Hill trade. As the Chiefs aim to become the first team since the mid-1960s Packers to threepeat (part one of Green Bay’s offering occurred before the Super Bowl era), which conference challenger is best built to disrupt their path back?
The AFC North appears a good place to start. The Ravens open the season with an Arrowhead Stadium trek and held the AFC’s No. 1 seed last season. Lamar Jackson skated to MVP honors, and Mike Macdonald‘s defense led the league in scoring. But familiar issues resurfaced for the team in the AFC championship game. An oddly pass-focused Baltimore effort ground to a halt, as Jackson committed two turnovers. Macdonald has since departed — the first Ravens coordinator to leave for a head coaching job since Gary Kubiak in 2015 — and ex-Baltimore linebacker Zach Orr moved into the DC post. The team also lost three starters up front. Although quiet in free agency (in terms of outside hires) beyond the splashy Derrick Henry addition, the Ravens added likely cornerback starter Nate Wiggins in Round 1 and kept Justin Madubuike off the market via the franchise tag and a quick extension.
Cincinnati has shown superior mettle against Kansas City since Joe Burrow‘s arrival, beating the Chiefs thrice in 2022 before falling as both teams battled key injuries in the January 2023 AFC title game. The Bengals losing Burrow in November removed a key obstacle in the Chiefs’ path, but the NFL’s highest-paid player is back. The team also retained Tee Higgins, being the only team left to have a player on the tag, and added new tackles in Trent Brown and Amarius Mims to join Orlando Brown Jr. The team revamped its safety corps by bringing back Vonn Bell and adding ex-Raven Geno Stone. Not many glaring issues are present in Cincinnati’s lineup, with longer-term matters — the receiver situation chief among them — the top roster storylines here.
Creeping into the playoffs despite a host of high-profile injuries on offense, the Browns showed their roster strength by shrugging off the injuries to Deshaun Watson, Nick Chubb and their tackles. Cleveland acquired Jerry Jeudy via trade and then extended him, and other than adding some Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah supporting pieces at linebacker, returns the starters from a No. 1-ranked pass defense. Watson’s struggles, for the most part, since arriving via trade will continue to define where the Browns can venture.
Although the Bills parted with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, looking past Buffalo — a four-time reigning AFC East champion that defeated the Chiefs in three straight seasons in Kansas City — would probably be a mistake. The Bills made some cost-cutting moves, most notably disbanding its seven-year safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer (though Hyde remains in play to return), and saw concerning form from Von Miller following his second ACL tear. The Bills also lost Leonard Floyd in free agency. Focus will understandably be aimed at Buffalo’s WR crew, which now houses Curtis Samuel, second-rounder Keon Coleman and ex-Chief Marquez Valdes-Scantling (who certainly places a premium on QB talent). The Chiefs’ issues staffing their wideout spots last year provided a lingering problem; will the Bills make a higher-profile addition down the line?
With their backs to the wall, the Joe Douglas–Robert Saleh regime will count on Aaron Rodgers belatedly delivering. The duo may or may not have attempted to strip power from OC Nathaniel Hackett, who is coming off a brutal two-year stretch. The Jets effectively replaced Bryce Huff with a more proven rusher in Haason Reddick and added Mike Williams as a supporting-caster on offense. The team will hope its pair of 33-year-old tackles — Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses — holds up, while Olu Fashanu looms as a long term tackle piece and potential short-term guard. Can the Jets do enough offensively to capitalize on their defensive nucleus of the past two seasons?
The Texans sit as a fascinating piece of this puzzle, given their outlook going into the first three seasons of Nick Caserio‘s GM tenure. After low-key offseasons from 2021-23, Houston added Diggs and a few notable defenders to the DeMeco Ryans-led roster. Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry join ex-Ryans 49ers pupil Azeez Al-Shaair as key defensive additions. Although Diggs struggled down the stretch in his final Bills season, he certainly played a lead role in elevating Josh Allen‘s stature. The Texans, who have C.J. Stroud on a rookie deal through at least 2025, will hope the Pro Bowler pairs well with Nico Collins and the returning Tank Dell.
Miami and Jacksonville’s roster equations figure to change soon, as respective extension talks with Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence are ongoing. The Dolphins have faded badly under Mike McDaniel and did not seriously threaten the Chiefs in a frigid wild-card game, though they have obviously shown elite offensive capabilities in the right environment. Handing the play-calling reins to OC Press Taylor in 2023, the Jaguars did not build on a strong 2022 finish. The Steelers also present one of the highest floors in NFL history, and they have upgraded at quarterback by adding two options — in Justin Fields and likely starter Russell Wilson. But they also have not won a playoff game since the six-field goal offering against the Chiefs — a game that represented the final shove for Kansas City to trade up for Mahoemes — seven years ago.
The Texans emerged from the NFL’s basement last season. Is there a stealth contender lurking? The Chiefs’ division does not look particularly imposing, once again, though Jim Harbaugh now overseeing Justin Herbert is certainly an interesting development. The national championship-winning HC has authored turnarounds everywhere he has gone.
No team has qualified for five Super Bowls in a six-year period, and none of the Super Bowl era’s threepeat efforts have reached the final stage; the 1990 49ers came closest, losing on a last-second field goal in the NFC title game. Who is poised to be the best Chiefs deterrent on their path to a threepeat? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your AFC thoughts in the comments section.
The AFC is so weak it’s laughable
I was stupid and voted Cincy not thinking, but honestly, I’m actually feeling Texans.
It’s hard not to say Cincy or Baltimore. With all due respect to the Bills, who have been just a millimeter shy of conquering the Chiefs, it does not seem that they’ve gotten better this year in particular. So, no, I don’t think that you were stupid at all. Right now, as it stands in the early offseason before we’ve seen any of these teams even line up for preseason, Cincy and Baltimore look the most challenging for Kansas City, as far as the question goes.
Houston looks very high ceiling wise, but without seeing how they follow up on a smashing debut from fittingly lauded rookie coach in DeMeco Ryans, it’s harder to say with certainty that they’ll be as successful next year. Despite their great season, the Texans still fell to the Ravens, after all, and before they get regarded as a “sure thing”, they’ll need to top one of those first tier teams. Personally, I think that they have pretty good chances, and their approach looks sustainable and solid long term.
Until they actually attain the result, however, I can’t put them down ahead of those teams as a certainty. That’d be the only way that you’d look stupid, in my eyes-if you denied an obvious fact, which I certainly don’t think that you did-as good as Houston may end up being.
The Texans have a lot easier of a division while the Ravens and Bengals have to fight for the same division. I give it to the Texans on that alone.
Except the Texans now play a first place schedule and at least two of their division rivals could be much better in 2024
Their biggest threat? The police…
I came to make this same joke. Also, it’s actually true.
I am putting my money on Roger Goodell – as 3 games in 10 days during December is a ticket to a quick playoff exit.
A more fitting question would be “Who’s the Most Hated Team in the NFL?” Kansas City is #1 thanks to Harrison Butker, Rashee Rice, the Reid family, demands for a taxpayer-funded stadium, and bragging about being “World Champion”.
The whole Harrison Butkner thing is over blown.
Dude gives a speech at a private catholic college to catholic graduates and people the message wasn’t intended for who could care less about a catholic graduation event are upset.
The worst part is they’re over blowing Butkers comments but have been absolutely silent in many instances when Tyreek Hill who punched his pregnant GF in the stomach entered the league, among other.
Butker sounded like a MAGA preacher in a Fundamentalist church. Those who think it’s “over blown” (sic) don’t know the meaning of “Kinder, Kuche, Kirche”.
(1488 bonus points if you know the origin of that phrase.)
relax
The Venn diagram of people who are mad at Harrison Butkner cause they listen to 60 second sound clips or third party views instead of the entire 30 minute speech and the people hating on Caitlin Clark being success and would rather see the wnba collapse and cease to exist instead of her succeed is a perfect circle.
US Sports Media are starf#&king Caitlin Clark just as they go about starf#&king Tiger Woods.
By the way, Clark’s WNBA team has started its season 0-5.
17.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 5.8 ASP
She’s top 15 in points and top 10 in assists as a rookie point guard, the NBA equivalent of QB (offense runs through you). She’s doing her part.
But thank you for proving my point. You’re upset at Butkner cause you didn’t appreciate his comments about women, as you yourself put down a succesful woman in Caitlin Clark
Pot meet Kettle.
Don’t forget Mahomes’s insufferable wife and brother.
Kareem Hunt
Frank Clark
Justyn Ross
Jovan Belcher, if you don’t know who Jovan Belcher is he committed a murder suicide after killing his girlfriend in front of his mother and asked Pioli and Hunt to take care of his daughter before killing himself outside the Chiefs facilities.
Another employee of the chiefs did the same thing that year in 2012
Justin Cox
They could have picked any to be outraged about. Nada.
Their biggest threat? Left wing harpies who are offended by anything and everything.
But they still love that girl Kelce’s dating. What’s her name again?
Taylor something?
The 6ft tall goofy chick with same lipstick and hairstyle since high school like a cartoon character.
Hahaha!
maga! Maga! MAGA!
We get it. You like Krav Maga.
Pretty sure the people who cry the most are now the right wingers.
whether you like it or not – the answer is the only AFC team to ever beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs: the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Patriots did it, if we’re counting teams…
I voted Bills because they still have a talented team even after swapping out basically every WR on the team. Keon Coleman is an absolute stud and better than people realize. He’s a mix of Plaxico Burress and Charles Rogers for those who remember college football in the late 90’s early 2000’s when Nick Saban coached at Michigan State. With Baltimore you don’t know what Lamar Jackson you’re going to get. The healthy one or the injured one. Cincy is a dangerous team as well so it was down to them and the Bills. Houston was a good story last year but I need to see it again to believe it.
Share the same sentiments regarding the Texans. They weren’t on any opponents radar last season but that’s all changed now.
Most Bills fans would rather be the underdog. Let the Jets and Texans win the offseason
I’ve decided to defer voting until after Taylor Swift posts her comment.
I went Cincy. Burrow is the one QB in the AFC I’ll take in a playoff game vs Mahommes. He has that grit and determination factor that sets him apart from the rest of the QBs. Burrow is just a winner. I love watching Lamar, but he still has accuracy issues. In the playoff game with KC, Lamar threw one in the dirt to his open RB 5 yards away. What a momentum killer. That one play said alot in that game.
Josh Allen still tries to single handedly win games. Early on last season, he was throwing the ball all around the field. He’s one big hit away from being on the IR. I think their offense will be fine if they run the ball with the RBs, but the D may have taken a step back in 2024. Tua hasn’t shown he can be a great QB without Tyreek, the team plays soft and isn’t physical. Stroud needs to show he can do it in back to back seasons. The dark horse will be the Jets.
Side note on KC, when they didn’t have Pacheco last season, the offense couldn’t move the ball no whwre near as wel. Pacheco is least recognized cog on that offense.
Very good post. I don’t find it impossible or even completely unlikely that the other teams mentioned could top Kansas City, but I do feel like you summarized them very well.
I’m a Texans fan, but it’s the Bengals.
Last year was amazing, but I think we’ve seen this movie a lot. Last year, Jacksonville was supposed to be ascending the ranks after a big turnaround in 2022, but they slumped pretty badly (same record, but the peripherals suggest a lot of luck). I really hope it doesn’t go the same way for the Texans, but I’m prepared for the possibility of a sophomore slump for Stroud & Ryans. If Richardson is healthy and showing what he flashed before getting hurt, I wouldn’t be super shocked to see Indy win that division.
But assuming Burrow is back to 90% or more, he’s got the weapons and the skill to make best use of them. I’d peg Cincy as a 12-13 win team. The Bills have lost enough that I think we’re going to get the risky gunslinger version of Josh Allen, which might be OK if he also runs a lot. He & Burrow are the only ones I think truly match up with Mahomes, and Burrow is better positioned to do that this year.
Steelers.
New OC, new QB.