Throughout the pre-draft process, there’s been a general consensus that the top tier of quarterback prospects consists of USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. While Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy has recently climbed up the draft boards, it sounds like a fifth signal caller has drawn increased attention of NFL evaluators.
Albert Breer of TheMMQB recently passed along that some NFL coaches have Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. listed above some of “the presumed top guys.” In fact, one anonymous NFL offensive coach declared Penix as his “No. 2 guy” at the position.
“I love Penix,” the coach told Breer. “He’s a stud, a born leader, calm and collected and in a genuine way. He’s a baller. He turns it loose, can throw it into tight windows. He stands in the pocket, lets plays develop, takes hits, throws it down the field. He’s just a winner.”
As Breer details, there are a handful of reasons why Penix has started to climb up the draft boards. Primarily, Penix’s rise could be attributed to coaches being inserted into the draft conversation. Scouts weren’t as high on the Washington prospect, criticizing the player’s “sometimes-scattershot accuracy underneath.” Coaches, however, have been more focused on Penix’s skills, including deep-ball accuracy that Breer describes as “off the charts.”
Penix also helped his draft stock with a strong pro day. His 4.5-second 40-yard dash time certainly warranted attention, with the unexpected speed being a nice revelation besides Penix’s lauded arm strength. In meetings with teams, the QB has come off “as humble, confident, and introspective,” per Breer, only improving coaches’ confidence in the prospect.
The quarterback’s health updates have also helped. Despite suffering four season-ending injuries during his time in college, Penix’s “medical evaluations did get a thumbs up,” per Bruce Feldman of The Athletic. Teams will surely still be wary of Penix and his health, but they now might be a bit more comfortable with improving his spot on the draft board.
To put it concisely, Penix’s only real issue in my eyes is his incredible (not in a good way) injury history. I think that he’s probably the third best passer of the top guys, behind Maye and Williams. The speed was pretty unexpected to me, which was a good surprise. Hopefully, he won’t have to run much with those knee injuries…that’s not something you want him doing.
Penix made a lot of big time throws in big time moments, and hung in the pocket under pressure in a few “got to have it” scenarios that I recall watching. Now, Penix did enjoy some great talent on the offensive line and at receiver at Washington, but he did seem to have a determined and decisive presence in the pocket. I personally think that putting him towards the end of the top tier guys was a undervaluing his on field skill, if that was the concern. His medical history, however, is certainly a valid concern and a good reason to be wary of Penix’s long term availability.
I worry about his long throwing motion. I also think his game has been to dependent on the long ball for me to feel confident it will translate to the current NFL. He also had a very strong pair of tackles and an incredibly strong receiver group to make his play work at a high level. And I might be wrong. It may well work in the NFL. But I don’t like the odds very much.
Oooof- He has shortened his throwing motion a bit already. It looked way better at his pro day. You very well could be right about his pro prospects but one thing I will say is, despite Odunze projecting better at his position, Penix constantly dropped it in the bucket and put it exactly where Rome needed the ball to be successful. He trusted his guys and allowed them to play to their strengths. I don’t see that as a negative when projecting to the next level.
It certainly doesn’t always mean anything. Burrow had an even better top two, and he’s great.
Absolutely. He’s probably the most intriguing to me translation-wise of this QB group. In many ways, he reminds me of a lefty Andrew Luck. Great leadership, solid athleticism, the arm talent to put it anywhere, accuracy to all levels but particularly intermediate and deep, etc.
I think so much of this class after Williams is “What scares you least?” Penix has the injuries and no scrambling. Nix has the iffiest upside. McCarthy has shown the least. Daniels looks like a nickel corner could break him in half. Maye’s worst tape is awful looking.
I love that Penix’ agent was used as a quote here disguised as an nfl executive.
All that being said, it’s smoke season. His body of work makes him the third best QB. We’ll see how all the these guys pan out in 4 years.
So Michael Penix Jr. sudden rise in the media is probably because he has hired an agent. A quick search shows that this and other Penix articles all revert back to Albert Breer, they probably have the same representative as the AFC Offensive Coach in the article. For all we know, that coach could be a WR Quality Control Coach?
Michael Penix Jr. is the new Tua Tagovailoa.
@Damage- Or because he had an awesome pro day where he ran a 4.5 and displayed a shortened throwing motion without any affect on his accuracy.
No injury problems the last two seasons….and he is as cool in the pocket as cool can get….but like was mentioned, that’s easier to be when you have a great line in front of you.
He’s been undervalued this whole process so I hope this is legit. He deserves to be a 1st rounder.
Penix had a great O-line and outstanding receivers at Washington but there’s still a bit of Steve Young in his game where he will stay and take a hit to make the throw or if a play breaks down he’s trying to avoid the rush with his eyes downfield to make a big play. You can’t coach those things.
Let me talk to ya!
L..A..KNIGHT
I’m not a big believer in this kid, did not impress me at all in National Championship game.
Physical skills are apparent.
I question his accuracy and decision-making.
Can he be effective in anything other than a spread offense?
That’s a valid question, regarding the spread. In my opinion, Penix was my Heisman pick over Daniels, who I thought had too big a differential between his play against quality opponents versus lower level ones. However, Penix has played for DeBoer for most of his career. Spread offenses don’t typically translate well to the NFL, but the league has increasingly embraced the shotgun as it’s turned away from the traditional under center QB.
That being said, the best QBs need to be able to do that to succeed, because it’s still the most important way that a QB can play. It lets him see the defense up close and adjust protections accordingly, not to mention recognizing free blitzers. Herbert is the only QB in my memory to come out of college with negligible experience in that area and to develop that ability in the NFL. Penix will have to do the same. It’s possible. Unlikely for most, but possible, and at least Penix offers some other elite traits that can be used if that happens.
Penix has other great traits, though, that make that gamble possibly worth it. I think he offers things that some of the others don’t, obviously from what I wrote above. His injury history is a big deal, though. NFL coaches are less critical of the spread than they used to be, which gives me hope for Penix, but I’m also considering that he can learn to play under center at least adequately. As with most prospects, I think that he’ll need a smart and detail oriented coach who can mesh the strengths he has with what strengths he needs to develop, but I think that he compares well with the likes of Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels at the very least.
I’m not sure you exactly know what you’re talking about. He played 2 out of 6 season’s for DeBoer, I’m not really sure how that qualifies as most of his career?
Three out of six seasons, which is half, not the majority. I forgot that DeBoer coached for a year at Fresno State.
That said, Penix played in 3 games in 2018, 6 in 2019, 6 in 2020, 5 in 2021, 13 in 2022, and 15 in 2023. That’s 48 total games, with 45 total starts. The three nonstarts were all in 2018. 2019, 2022, and 2023 were all played under DeBoer, and all were starts. So, just concerning starts, Penix has started 34 games out of 45 with DeBoer, which is approximately 75% of his starting career. Not counting starts, he has played 34 out of 48 career games with DeBoer, which is approximately 70% of his career.
I don’t know what I’m talking about, true. No argument there. But I think that I was right about that. (By the way, you don’t need an apostrophe at the end of “season” to make it plural. Apostrophes never pluralize words, ever, they indicate contractions like “it’s” for “it is” or possession-I do know that pretty well, thanks to some nuns with very quick reflexes). I think that you and I actually agree that Penix has been overlooked. There are questions with him objectively speaking, and I acknowledge that. I think that he has a better profile than he’s been given, especially compared to some of these others at the top.
@BG99- But did he impress you in the semifinals when he had one of the best games of any QB since the inception of the college playoffs? His performance against Michigan was arguably his worst or second worst game of his career. He missed wide open guys multiple times–those were passes he typically connects on no matter the opponent.
By your reasoning, people should dismiss his dismal showing in the Championship game because he had a great game in the semi finals?
Fans should expect him to fall short against great defenses and play well against an average defense?
What is the point you are trying to make?
Did you read the entire comment? I thought my point was pretty clear, no offense intended. It’s that you’re singling out one game. If someone singled out the Texas game, that would also be silly. But you’re pointing to one game in which he had many *unforced* errors (which I mentioned is unusual for him) and making a declaration on him.
Michigan’s D played great, but he missed a few throws he always makes, such as Odunze wide open down the field, which Odunze might have taken to the house if he caught. It was not an accurate display of Penix’s abilities or typical performance. It’s said to watch at least 4 games of all snaps before making a determination for a reason. Watch him vs. Texas, USC, Oregon x2, Utah, even Oregon State in the pouring rain and you’ll see a different QB than against Michigan. One who didn’t miss wide open receivers for unforced errors.
Just a couple of thoughts from a Raiders fan.
1-Penix was the beneficiary of a great offense, but this is often the case for great prospects. I’m not sure how many QBs ever had more than Daniels had last year, or Tua, or a couple of others.
2-Sometimes the QB is what makes a great WR.
3-While almost all QBs have some flaws, picking Penix at the end of the 1st/early 2nd mitigates some of the risk. Missing on the 1-2-3 is a disaster. Missing on say the #29 is more just annoying.
That sounds very reasonable. Taking a swing on a questionable non-elite QB is also a lot easier to stomach when you’ve already landed a high-level corner or tackle prospect.
Assuming that non-elite QB hits, the next move is to pay that low-ceiling QB like the top players in the league as your team wades though 10-7 seasons and early playoff exits (Dak, Kirk)
You don’t *need* to do that, and even if you do, both those guys ended up getting paid dramatically more because the teams that drafted them dragged their feet on paying them and then franchised them.
And Russell Wilson.
He should be the #2 QB on the board and he will end up being the best pro. If he goes past #12 there will be a lot of fan bases who’ll have a gripe.This year’s C.J. Stroud. Mark it down!
Even if you believe the upside is the same, Penix comes with a lot more questions. CJ Stroud was (and still is) younger, hasn’t torn his ACL twice, and didn’t take until his fifth college season to look like a future NFL player.
He was being criminally underrated up until recently. In his 2 years at UW he went H2H with Bo Nix 3 times and beat him 3 times. Also went to H2H with Caleb Williams and beat him this year. Was in a ton of incredibly close games that required him to lead a game winning drive and managed to do it successfully every single time. He is a winner