Earlier this week, it was learned extension talks are ongoing between the Jaguars and quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The parties have plenty of time to work out a deal with the fifth-year option in place a means to keep Lawrence in place through 2025. 
That option will check in at a price of $25.66MM, a figure far below the going rate for franchise quarterbacks. The former first overall pick has not lived up to expectations to date, but he is squarely in Jacksonville’s long-term plans. Young passers are often extended after three years in the league – the first point of eligibility for a second contract – and it would come as no surprise if a Lawrence deal were to be worked out in 2024.
Talks on that front will be lengthy, however, something general manager Trent Baalke confirmed when speaking on the subject. A monster deal was recently hammered out with Pro Bowl edge rusher Josh Allen, removing one major task from the Jaguars’ to-do list. A Lawrence agreement will be much more expensive, though, and Baalke acknowledged patience will be required while adding he aims to find a resolution relatively soon.
“We’ve had some great talks and great conversations,” Baalke said (via NFL.com). “We’re working, but you can’t force this stuff. I said the same thing with Josh’s situation, I said it would take some time and it did. But we’re glad it got completed when it did so we could go into this offseason program knowing that’s behind us and we can move forward. We’re working at it, we’ll continue to work at it. Ownership is involved, obviously. Coach [Doug Pederson] is involved; we’re going to put our best foot forward and hope to get something accomplished here.”
Pederson’s arrival in 2022 led to expectations Lawrence would be able to rebound from a forgettable rookie campaign under Urban Meyer. That season, Jacksonville managed to reach the divisional round of the postseason amidst a strong showing on offense. A regression this past campaign – one in which Lawrence battle multiple injuries – left the team out of the postseason, however. The 24-year-old could thus be hard-pressed to command a deal similar in value to those signed by the likes of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts last offseason.
Those four pacts brought the top of the QB market past $50MM per year, and healthy salary cap increases will no doubt keep moving the position’s financial landscape further. Lawrence is among the signal-callers set to benefit from that trend as early as this offseason, and it will be interesting to see how much traction is gained on contract talks over the coming weeks.
I wonder what his value will be. He’s not a 50m guy but they haven’t and I wouldn’t give up on the guy. Maybe 35m?
He wasn’t that guy in college even though he beat my Buckeyes
Nowadays, $35 million wouldn’t be good enough. $50 million seems to be the franchise starting point going forward. Has Lawrence shown enough to be considered elite? No. Has he shown enough to not let him get away? Yes. For the latter reason, he (and other QBs in that area) will end up getting those types of deals. This aspect of it I think is pretty non-negotiable; that’s the way that the market has gone, and Lawrence is a homegrown player who still has a solid hold on the starting job.
My opinion? Lawrence, on the plus side, still has plenty of room to grow, and there’s not much reason to think that he won’t. He has great physical tools, and after an idiotic (no other word for it) coaching regime in his first year, he looks as if he might get that chance. My expectation, unfortunately, is that Baalke will never be a good enough GM to take full advantage of that, but that’s another conversation. For now, I think that these negotiations are more about whether the Jags can afford to let Lawrence walk than they are about what he has done so far (which, to be clear, hasn’t been bad).
At this point, making a big investment in Lawrence would be a mistake. Lawrence like Daniel Jones hasn’t been bad, but hasn’t been very good either. Lawrence will either be worth $50 million or $10 million (Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew territory) depending on how he plays. At least Mayfield looks like he wants to win games. Lawrence with all the gifts is a bit diffident on the field.
He’s only been in the league 3 years so it’s early to give up on him. He was pretty good in year 2 but regressed last year. So there are signs of him being franchise worthy. (We won’t count year 1 cause he had to play for one of the worst head coaches the nfl has ever seen).
If Jax is smart you let 24 play out and see how he does in year 4 and then make your decision. Which might just be keep him for 25 on the 1 year and see after that. Jax shouldn’t be in any rush to lock him down unless you think he’s gonna explode in 24 and you can sign him cheaper now….but that’s what got the giants stuck with DJ long term.
Why should Trevor settle for $15m under value? I agree he’s not top 5, but he has every right not to sign a below market contract. And if they only offer a below market deal, what FA’s want to sign w/ Jax?
And each year that goes by w/o a new deal, the contract goes up roughly $5m a season. $50m now or $55m next year?
I agree with both of you two, but is arty vouching for Trevor Lawrence on the record here? I thought you didn’t think that he was potentially worth it (some of the arguments you mentioned prior I thought were fair, though I’m overall optimistic on his future). I’m rarely surprised, but I am pleasantly so. I feel more secure in my belief thanks to you, my friend.
Crosseyed is right. From below and said many times on other articles
‘It’s hard to see how the current passer centric model is sustainable.’
What’s the answer? Either you pay average QB’s top dollar or you draft a new QB every 4 years (ticking off your fan base non-stop; while demanding they pay for a new stadium/renovations) in the 1st round hoping one pans out. No player, with fame, will take below market value. Not just for them, but for the position. They may not be #1 in value at their position, but they have to be paid top 5.
Even the NFLPA will demand that for future players. The Cowboys’ dilemma right now; pay Parsons, & Lamb top 3 value and Dak needs top 5-7 value as well. Some franchise will, we know that. Lamar, 1 season Hurts, 2 games below .500 Herbert & oft injured Burrow topped each other in 2023 last year. Followed by the Chiefs ‘adjusting’ Mahomes. They set new barometers for this year’s QB signing’s.
As I have always said, I have never seen a front office staff of coach take a ‘home town discount’ for a franchise, why should players? It’s not the players job to handle the cap.
But it’s an easier problem than what they have in the NCAA. Could you imagine 80+ FA’s every year? What a nightmare they created in college.
He’s by far better than Daniel Jones and he got like $46 million or whatever. I would say at least $48 million
Did he talk about himself blowing a$$ at the press conference?? lol it up. Down real right hilarious
I think we’re in the days where team are petrified of not having a top QB. So they are paying exorbitant amounts to QBs who may or not be worth it because that are scared of not have one. Meanwhile they are handicapping their roster’s cap space with mediocre QBs making way more than they’re worth. Daniel Jones for example. Lawrence
might fit in that category.
It’s hard to see how the current passer centric model is sustainable. If roster management is difficult now, what happens when the league expands to an 18 game schedule and has to expand the current roster limit?
Will things reach a point where sacks are replaced by tearing a flag from the QBs hip? I doubt fans want to see the expensive QBs protected to that extent but that’s the direction things are headed.
Or they think “this QB has a second or third round grade, BUT…let’s draft him at #12 overall because we need a FRANCHISE QB so if we overvalue him, surely that’s what he’ll be!”
That’ll be JJ McCarthy this year.
I think there is 2 first round QBs this year.. Williams and Daniel’s.. that’s it. Everyone else is a reach..
I don’t think Williams is worth it. Men simply don’t pay attention/respect male leaders that wear lipstick and painted fingernails. In any industry, they would be blown off, let alone in pro sports.
If a male boss walked into a meeting with neon pink lipstick & matching fingernails, I wouldn’t listen to 1 word of what he had to say. Nor would the rest of the staff. In fact, he wouldn’t be promoted to management because of that fact.