With the Broncos and Raiders‘ most recent quarterback plans not working out, the AFC West presents a stark have/have-not disparity at the game’s glamour position. Going into the draft, Denver and Las Vegas have uphill climbs to find passers who could provide hope of matching up with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
Yes, the Broncos and Raiders have enjoyed some success against the Chiefs and Chargers (more so the Bolts) during these two Pro Bowlers’ stays. But this era of roster building has mandated either a franchise QB or a stacked roster is necessary to be a true contender. Denver and Las Vegas meet neither criteria, and the rivals’ current draft real estate does not leave clear paths to acquiring such help.
Holding the No. 12 pick, the Broncos did not match the Raiders’ urgency to add a bridge-type starter. The Raiders (No. 13) have Gardner Minshew signed to a two-year, $25MM deal ($15MM guaranteed). If they are unable to piece together a trade or do not see good value in picking one of the draft’s second-tier options, the Minshew bridge merely extends.
The Broncos, conversely, have only Jarrett Stidham — a player best known as the emergency starter as Derek Carr and then Russell Wilson were parked largely for contractual reasons — as a realistic starter option. While rumors about the Broncos being fine with Stidham beginning the season as the starter have emerged, it is difficult to envision Sean Payton entrusting the career backup/third-stringer to that role without a better option being acquired.
The Broncos are planning to add another arm via free agency or through a trade, but options are scarce at this point. As far as the draft goes, the team has been tied to Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy. A recent report suggested a “heavy expectation” exists the Broncos will leave the first round with a QB, and while Denver has been viewed as wanting to trade up, the Payton and Wilson trades make this a dicey proposition.
Denver has not held a first-round pick since 2021 (Patrick Surtain). Unless the Broncos want to entertain trading their best player to help acquire draft assets, they would need to return to the treacherous road of trading first-round picks. Denver unloaded two in the Wilson swap and sent the Bradley Chubb-obtained choice to New Orleans for Payton’s rights. That Saints swap also stripped the Broncos of their 2024 second-rounder, creating a daunting task for the again-QB-needy club. Eating a record-smashing $85MM in dead money over the next two years on Wilson’s contract, the Broncos obviously would best benefit from a cost-controlled passer.
The Raiders do hold their second-round pick, but the player they have not made a great secret of coveting is viewed as unavailable. Reuniting Antonio Pierce and Jayden Daniels became a Raiders goal early this offseason, but ESPN.com’s Adam Schefter said this week a climb from No. 13 into Daniels territory is likely impossible. Michael Penix Jr. consolation-prize rumors have surfaced, and while the Washington product is seen by some coaches as having skills in line with this draft’s top QBs, scouts have seen some mechanical issues that could pose a problem for the deep-ball maestro’s NFL acclimation.
It also will be worth monitoring how serious the Raiders’ trade-up efforts will become in the days leading up to the draft. A recent report suggested Pierce was in favor of doing what it takes to move up the board for a long-term answer while GM Tom Telesco was OK with hanging onto draft assets and using Minshew as a full-season starter if need be. That will create an interesting backdrop ahead of the duo’s first draft together.
Trade routes for the Raiders and Broncos also stand to be complicated by the fact the Chargers sit in one of the spots that could be used to move up. At No. 4, the Cardinals hold prime real estate to collect a major haul from a QB-needy team. If the Cardinals opt to stay at 4 and draft a wide receiver, the Chargers suddenly become the gateway team. L.A. will probably not be inclined to help one of its two division rivals climb to 5 for a franchise-QB hopeful — at least, not without increasing the price tag. The Giants and Vikings also have the AFC West clubs outflanked in terms of draft assets, with New York sitting at No. 6 and Minnesota holding two first-rounders (Nos. 11 and 23).
With the 2025 draft class not viewed — as of now, at least — as rivaling this QB crop, the stakes could soon rise for the Broncos and Raiders. The teams have done their homework on this class, meeting with passers that will be difficult to impossible to obtain (Daniels, McCarthy). Nix, who profiles as a player the AFC West teams would not need to craft a monster trade haul for, also visited the Raiders. These teams coming out of Round 1 without a QB raises major questions about each’s viability.
Neither of these franchises has enjoyed much luck drafting QBs in Round 1. The Raiders made one of the biggest mistakes in draft history by selecting JaMarcus Russell first overall in 2007 (16 years after drafting quick bust Todd Marinovich). Like the Broncos, the best QBs in team history (Ken Stabler, Rich Gannon, Daryle Lamonica, Carr) were either outside additions or a second-round pick.
Denver’s history here is also checkered, with the franchise having traded 2006 first-rounder Jay Cutler after three years and made the strange moves of drafting a first-round QB ahead of John Elway‘s age-32 season (Tommy Maddox) and then trading up 18 spots to draft Tim Tebow in 2010. These decisions both provided more value than the 2016 Paxton Lynch whiff. Lynch is among the 12 QBs/Phillip Lindsay (the 2020 COVID-19 game against Payton’s Saints) to start for the Broncos since Peyton Manning‘s retirement.
Appearing to reside in the backseat among teams with chances of acquiring draft real estate necessary to acquire one of the class’ top arms, the Broncos and Raiders’ QB situations double as two of the top storylines going into the draft. How will the rival teams navigate their complex tasks of upgrading early in the draft? Weigh in with your thoughts on these situations in PFR’s latest Community Tailgate.
Until Justin H. is above .500, let’s stop calling him good to elite. 30-32 in 62 games. He has to earn that title; not given by draft placement. Great ones carry their teams, average ones need great teams around them.
It’s a team sport! Would he be .500 on the 9ers? The lions? I’d say yes. In fact he’d be the starter on those teams 100%. They used to say the same thing about P. rivers. In reality as a raider fan I’d LOVE to have Herbert right now as the QB. Media would be raving about the raiders if that were the case. Bottom line stats don’t lie and the eye test doesn’t lie….Herbert has passed both of those in my opinion.
It’s always a team sport when your player doesn’t produce. Phil had- in their prime- a HoF RB in LDT & Gates, who most likely will be in Canton.
Eye tests are forgotten, stats aren’t. Until Justin is well above .500, he’s (below) average. As they always say; HC’s and QB’s get all the credit when winning and take all the blame when losing.
Justin hasn’t won enough yet but he does have the time and opportunity. During Payton Manning’s first 4 seasons he went 32-32 in 64 games. After that he went 154-47 in 201 games. (I didn’t include payoff games)
Herbert isn’t Manning but the Chargers just need to have a winning season this year and Herbert will be above .500.
On that note: Really curious about LAC on both sides of the ball. Def has been the biggest issue over the last few years but they also moved off of 4 offensive weapons.
How does that change my argument? Until Peyton won non-stop, it was widely debated how good he was. That’s all I’m saying, let’s see Justin win non-stop. In fact, I forgot Peyton was .500 4 seasons into his career. He certainly changed that narrative. Peyton changed it; not new coaches, O, D, or ST players. Peyton carried the team. When I see Justin carry the Chargers for a prolonged period of seasons, then I’ll change my opinion. Until then he’s 1 game under .500.
But to keep this going. The best QB all time with your “winning logic” is Otto graham. I think graham is great but is he really the GOAT? I think Otto would take Herbert or Rivers over himself to start a game. Sunni g isn’t just the QB its talent and opportunity. Would Purdy be in the SB if he were the titans QB? The panthers QB? Opportunity is huge! Remember Brady took over for a very good Bledsoe and a very good pats team. Mahomes took over for Alex smith and a very good chiefs team. Opportunity is huge just ask Archie manning.
Otto started playing football in 1940’s, won 3 titles and 80 years later, & football fans still know his name. Says something about him right?
just looked it up Rivees with LT was 67-29. They had some great teams. I know because I watched as a raider fan. The problem there wasn’t rivers at all. Coaching, defense etc. rivers is the only QB I know to play in an AFC championship game with a torn ligament in his knee and still almost beat Brady and the pats inthe pats heyday. Winning in football is a team sport. I don’t see Herbert making tackles or creating pressure on the QB and getting sacks. There been a ton of great QBs who were barely above .500. You never answered my question though. Would Herbert be over .500 if he were SFs QB? How much better would SF be if Herbert was their QB? I’d say FAR greater and I dislike both those teams but I recognize talent and Herbert is a top flight QB in the NFL.
Doesn’t produce??? The dude hs thrown for over 4k (with one 5k year) every year in the league minus last year as he got hurt. If he didn’t he’d have easily had another 4k year. The dude can play. When people talk about what the raiders need to do to compete in the AFC west they say get a QB who can compete with Mahomes AND Herbert. They don’t just say Mahomes. They ALWAYs add and Herbert.
From google: As the NFL regular season schedule ends, 10 quarterbacks eclipsed the 4000-yard mark, with the collective representing the top passing yardage leaders for the 2023 regular season.
It’s a pure offensive/passing league now. 4,000 passing yards is the norm.
“ 10 quarterbacks eclipsed the 4000-yard mark, with the collective representing the top passing yardage leaders for the 2023 regular season.
It’s a pure offensive/passing league now. 4,000 passing yards is the norm.”
Uh 10 out of 32 QBs isn’t the “norm”
10 at or above 4000 means 22 (more than double 10) were below 4000.
10/32 = 31.25%
22/32 = 68.75%
So the “norm” wouldn’t be 4000+ it would be less than 4000.
Check your stats Mr. mathematician. That’s a whole lot of starters that didn’t play a full season. Easy google search.
From google: Seven starting quarterbacks − a whopping 22% of the league’s starters − were sidelined this year due to season-ending injuries. The quarterback injury bug started Week 1 of the season with New York Jets’ QB Aaron Rodgers (Achilles) going down in the team’s season-opening drive.
For every Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert that would have been on pace for 4000 yards, there were Deshaun Watsons, Anthony Richardsons, that werent on pace where backups were forced to throw more cause their teams were down more often. Thats not a “norm thing” when a back up has to come in and throw cause the team is losing in the 3rd or 4th after defenses start playing softer to play the clock and not give uo big plays. That happens more against backups than it does starters.
5th in QBR
11th in QBR
3rd in QBR
13th in QBR (rookie season)
Herbert is an elite QB in this league.
What has not been elite is his defense. A position Herbert doesnt play at any point during a game, the season, or during his career.
28th total defense
19th total defense
22nd total defense
10th in total defense (rookie season)
“but but but Jacksonville game”
Herbert led the offense to 30 points and the kicker missed a FG which would have been 33 points.
Defense allowed 31 points during that game.
Herbert did his job. Kicker and defense did not. Kicker is also a position Herbert doesn’t play.
To further drive home this fact
His rookie season
Offense scored 24 ppg, defense allowed 26 ppg
2021
27.9 points a game, defense gave up 27 ppgs
2022
offense scored 23 ppg defense gave up 22ppg
2023
Prior to his injury he was averaging 23 ppg. Defense gave up 23.5 ppg
Hard to actually win when when you do score your defense gives up whatever you score and more.
Matt Ryan’s record is 124-109-1. With a SB appearance. Is he now considered a great QB? A contemporary QB.
I may be missing your point, but yeah, Ryan was an elite QB for a nice stretch. I wouldn’t call him an all-time great though.
Agreed on Ryan. He was really great for a long stretch but fell off too quickly. I also wouldn’t consider him an all time great but I’d definitely consider him an all decades caliber qb 2010-2020.
Ryan was a great QB for many years.
From 2008-2018 he never dipped below a QBR of 65. In his prime he was routinely 67-72 QBR. He was squarely in the top 10 top 5 QBR rankings based on his performance as a QB.
It was until he hit 34 that his play started to drop off towards end of his career.
But yeah Maty Ryan was a bonafide franchise upper echelon QB for many years in ATL until age and Father Time caught up with him.
What about A Dalton’s four 10 win seasons? How about Cousins, C Palmer, Goff, Wentz, Flacco, A Smith, Cam? All are above .500 QB’s are they great?
All will be footnotes in NFL annals w/in 10 years.
It seems like you are making the point for us. The QB’s you mention are all over .500, but you feel that they will be footnotes. So if you are over .500 it doesn’t make you “elite.” Kind of like if you are a game under .500 it doesn’t mean that you aren’t one of the top QB’s in the league (that plays with a questionable defense).
Andy Dalton had 1 good year based on QBR in Cincy where he had a 72. Other than that he was in the high 40s to high 50s his entire career. So no I wouldn’t say Dalton was an elite QB by any means.
Kirk Cousins has had like 3 great seasons based on QBR. Other than that he’s been between 55-62 QBR aka middle or towards the bottom.
Goff has ranged between 55-63 in his career in QBR middle to bottom performance.
You can look up the rest of these guys QBRs very easily through pro football reference but you seem really stuck on this notion of “wins” for some odd reason when “winning and losing” is a team effort.
There’s 3 phases. Offense defense special teams. They help each other towards the same goal: winning. But they don’t do each others jobs. So to put winning and losing on 1 single person is stupid. Same with baseball wins and losses. Michael King pitched 7 innings struck out 10 gave up 1 run. Padres scored 0 runs entire 9 innings. Does that mean Bryce Wilson who only lasted 3 innings was the better pitcher? No.
I don’t need a QBR rating to know if a QB is winning or losing games, it’s not rocket science. Your hero is sub .500 after 4 years in the league.
” i dont like facts that prove me wrong”
We know arty. We know.
Herbert is an elite QB based on his play. Many metrics support this.
Whats next you’re going to tell us Justin Herbert isnt a good QB cause he plays better wearing dark blue than light blue jerserys? Thats about as equally important as citing win loss records.
I think you’re a raiders fan as iam. Your logic doesn’t make sense. It’s about opportunity. My favorite QB all time is Ken Stabler. He had a great record with the raiders. 69-29. But he played in great teams in Oakland. When he went to Houston and New Orleans he had a sub .500 record. Does that mean he wasn’t a great QB ? Or was the talent around him along with the opportunity to compete not as good as it was in Oakland? Would Riivers have won multiple SBs if he switched places with Eli? Those are legit questions that the eye test can answer. Stabler was great and rivers would have rings if he were in NY
This is also not helping the case. All of those scoring offenses are mediocre except the year they were scoring 27 points a game. Around 23 or 24 ppg is the definition of average in today’s NFL.
I used Herbert’s whole career win/loss stats, not 1 game. I don’t cherry pick. Same as I do for Bill B’s record as a head coach. Sub .500 w/o Tom Qb’ing (9 seasons of proof). Until Justin wins constantly, he is what the W/L record is. That’s all that remembered.
You’ve made it clear, he’s your dear hero; but he’s sub .500 over 4 years. Plenty of new faces each year; coaches, players etc. Like every other player in the league. Nothing new there, except being an average QB. As I said above, great QB’s carry their teams, simple as that.
The defense was primarily to blame but also an offense that couldn’t protect a 27-0 lead. That’s part of it. He played with that defense all year. He knew what it was.
As a Chiefs fan it does not matter. Chargers annually are dubbed the best team on paper and Herbert is preseason MVP. And about week 7 everyone says they got the Chiefs…. Its irritating
I believe Kendall Hinton started that QB-less against the Saints…
Trading up would be a pretty bad move, in my opinion, for either of these teams, but much worse for Denver. This is simply because they have been pick deficient for too long. We don’t know how the Raiders’ new regime will produce on the draft front, but Paton (not Payton, Paton) in Denver does draft well. He’s made some horrible free agency decisions, but the Broncos have found good players in the draft in the last three years. Of course, that could all change with a bad draft, but Denver would be better served with a trade down than a trade up. Vegas would as well, or at least better served by using its pick. The Raiders planned for this year much better at QB, with Minshew signing, than Denver did. Payton’s presence may even that up for the Broncos, we’ll see, but in a deep draft, a team loses much less by trading down than in another year.
In the second round there are a few OL and WR prospects who could help either team, and possibly one of the lower end top QBs (or Spencer Rattler, who I’ve mentioned a few times as being a good second round QB for a needy team not picking highly that won’t need a trade up). If you move up, move up for a player, not a position, and make sure that player is generational. In a deep draft, it’s better to move down than up.
I’ve never understood the mentality of bad teams desperately trying to move up for a QB. If you think it’s one of the finishing pieces, okay, cool, go all in. When looking at a team like Denver, for instance, what does it accomplish? Even if you get the QB selection right, what does the guy have to work with around him? You just dealt away valuable picks that could’ve been used to surround the QB with more talent, too.
I agree. Trade back, get some solid core pieces, then move after a QB. Don’t reach, and don’t force the timing.
I can see the Raiders if he is available at 13 taking Penix or Nix, cannot see the Raiders and Chargers swapping first, or Raiders really paying a high price in future picks for the AZ pick at four.