Making it past the franchise tag application deadline, Christian Wilkins is days away from becoming one of this year’s top free agents. The interior defensive lineman’s 2023 bet on himself appears close to paying off.
With the Ravens franchise-tagging Justin Madubuike, Wilkins will have a big opportunity ahead. If the Chiefs can re-sign Chris Jones at the 11th hour, Wilkins will have a clear runway to become the top defender available this year. Four days from this year’s legal tampering period, two landing spots have emerged for the five-year Dolphins D-lineman.
Several GMs are predicting (via the Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora) the Texans will come out of this year’s signing period with Wilkins. They will be far from the only team interested in the high-level run defender who showed his best pass-rushing stuff in 2023; KSTP’s Darren Wolfson mentioned during an appearance on SKOR North the Vikings are expected to have interest in the former first-round pick.
Ranked fourth on PFR’s top 50 free agent list, Wilkins has a clear Vikings connection in second-year Minnesota DC Brian Flores. The veteran coach made Wilkins his first draft choice when in place as Dolphins HC back in 2019; Flores coached Wilkins for three years. The Vikings have not enjoyed much success in terms of interior D-line pressure in many years. Wilkins’ nine sacks from 2023 would be Minnesota’s most from an interior defender since Kevin Williams reached 11.5 in 2004. The Vikings also have major questions about their pass rush as a whole, with Danielle Hunter, D.J. Wonnum and Marcus Davenport due for free agency.
The construction of the Texans’ roster gives them an interesting opportunity. GM Nick Caserio avoided expensive deals during his first two years in charge, and while he made some pricey moves to bolster Houston’s O-line last year, the rookie contracts of C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson should set up the Texans to spend more than they have during Caserio’s tenure. Placing a dynamic DT alongside Anderson would be a start, and two of them — Wilkins and Jones — are set to be available.
While Jones has proven to be one of this era’ best defenders, Wilkins is a bit younger — at 28 — and has played three fewer NFL seasons compared to the Chiefs standout. ESPN’s run stop win rate placed Wilkins as a top-two DT in 2021 and ’22; Flores was in place during the first of those seasons. After the Dolphins framed their offer — a top-10 DT proposal in terms of AAV — around Wilkins’ lack of sack production, he broke through during Vic Fangio‘s season in charge. Wilkins’ 23 QB hits were 10 more than his previous single-season best.
The Texans hold $70MM in cap space, while the Vikings sit at $37MM. Though, Minnesota has a more complex path to a player like Wilkins. Kirk Cousins not re-signing by 3pm CT March 13 would trigger a $28.5MM dead money hit. The Vikings also have been talking to Hunter about re-signing, though given the issues the edge rusher expressed about his previous Minnesota deal, it would surprise if he did not test free agency.
The Dolphins are in worse cap shape than both, and while they are attempting to keep the Clemson alum off the market, time is running out after they passed on franchise-tagging him. By hitting the market, Wilkins should have a clear path to being paid on the level of 2019 first-round classmates Jeffery Simmons, Quinnen Williams and Dexter Lawrence, who each signed extensions last year while Wilkins and the Dolphins could not come to terms.