Linked closely to quarterbacks this offseason, the Falcons may be moving close to landing their next starter. Justin Fields-to-Atlanta buzz is heating up, but the NFC South team also looks to be interested in Baker Mayfield — potentially as a contingency plan.
The Buccaneers have begun talks with Mayfield, who would stand to lose some leverage if the Falcons complete a Fields trade soon. But Atlanta is believed to be in the mix for Mayfield, according to Sportskeeda’s Tony Pauline. It would take the Bucs failing to complete a Mayfield deal to bring the Falcons into this equation, however. The Bucs’ exclusive negotiating rights expire at 11am CT on March 11, when the legal tampering period begins.
Last year, the Giants and Seahawks needed to pin down the markets for Daniel Jones and Geno Smith, respectively. Both teams reached deals with their QBs to keep them off the market. The Bucs are in the same situation, and it will require a big raise for them to keep Tom Brady‘s successor in town. Mayfield is expected to draw at least $34MM per year on his next deal, per Pauline, who throws out a $40MM-AAV prospect as a potential ceiling number.
The Giants giving Jones $40MM per annum could conceivably be a factor here, and that contract included $81MM fully guaranteed. Mayfield’s guarantee figure will be one of this offseason’s most interesting numbers, given where his value stood after poor 2021 and ’22 seasons. A team shelling out a Jones-level guarantee would certainly be taking a risk.
The Falcons do have some staffers familiar with Mayfield. New OC Zac Robinson was Mayfield’s position coach during his brief stay with the Rams, with Raheem Morris obviously observing the former waiver claim in that span as well.
Mayfield going from where he was entering last year’s free agency to his present value remains a fascinating process, one that underscores the supply-and-demand issue at quarterback. Other suitors are in on Mayfield, per Pauline, though it is not certain how aggressive the non-Bucs contingent plans to be. It would stand to reason the Raiders, Broncos and perhaps the Vikings — depending on their Kirk Cousins conclusion — are monitoring Mayfield. The Steelers have been linked to Fields, though they have also been connected to a plan of bringing in a veteran to compete with Kenny Pickett. Given where Mayfield’s price might be, he is overqualified for that assignment despite needing to win the Tampa Bay job last summer.
The Bucs likely have Mayfield atop their priority queue, but they also are believed to be readying to use their franchise tag on Antoine Winfield Jr. It would be a bit of a leap for the Bucs to tag Mayfield, as that would cost more than $38MM. Even if Mayfield’s AAV could wind up in this ballpark — a staggering raise from the $4MM base salary he signed for in 2023 — that would be a crippling cap hold for the Bucs to carry into free agency. That said, the team just qualified for the divisional round with Brady’s $35.1MM dead-money sum on the books.
Regarding Fields and the Falcons, a DraftKings Sportsbook update places this as the runaway lead fit by slotting Atlanta as a minus-250 favorite for the Chicago QB. The Bears hope to finalize a Fields decision before free agency, with GM Ryan Poles indicating he wants to do right by the three-year starter. Chicago is on track to draft Caleb Williams with its Carolina-obtained No. 1 pick, and while that is not yet final, Fields is widely expected to be wearing a different uniform in 2024.
If the Falcons do not end up with the Georgia native — whom they passed on in 2021 — a Mayfield push could become intense for a team that has wanted to upgrade on Desmond Ridder since the season ended.
Trying to build some leverage…ATL either drafting a QB high or going to Wilson.
I want Russ the most
Gross. I don’t get it.
Huh
Ahh there’s the locker room cancer commentor I was mentioning @SentinelAtl lol….@Sid-Bream why is Russ such a locker room cancer? Just curious, I’ve never seen any stories but I could be wrong.
That’s what I’m saying. Dudes just be hating
Mayfield is a capable starter I think with the quick turn around with the Rams and making the Bucs a playoff team(he had weapons but they don’t make the playoffs without him no way) he’s about as safe a bet as they can make even if his ceiling isn’t a top ten qb. I can’t say it strongly enough mortgaging multiple drafts to draft the top rated qb out of college is as risky a move as you can make maybe in all of sports. Look at Carolina my lord they give up a kings ransom mortgaging multiple first round draft choices and barring a miraculous turn around they set themselves back years. This years pick they gave up is now the number one pick in the draft and that’s just the biggest cost of the deal not the only one. The Bears will get to take their shot at a franchise qb courtesy of Carolina. There are a lot of franchise QBs out there selected in the mid rounds and every so often late rounds. That’s why Mayfield is appealing to me. Sign him but take your best shot in the mid rounds on a QB with the hopes of developing him. It seems to me almost like teams listen to the media too much and buy into the hype. They all circle the wagons around one or two guys every year but it’s so hard to predict how a college qb will adapt to the speed and difference in the game in the NFL. You have a few seconds to make a decision and make a throw and a half a step in the NFL is considered open so you have to be fast and extremely accurate. With the NFL moving to mobile QBs that requires even more decision making you need a guy who knows when to tuck it and take off but not a guy who’s first instinct is to run. Unless it’s already my pick and I don’t have to give up multiple first rounders plus to move into that spot I wouldn’t personally select a QB that high the risk and cost can bury you for years and it’s too hard to tell what you have until they’ve seen game action. Maybe moving up a handful of spots to get a guy who slipped into a spot in the draft you didn’t think he would and you like him. Mahomes a good but easy example in hindsight is a good example maybe Jordan Love is more the norm if it goes well. Plenty of guys have all the tools and look like the next superstar in college fall flat on their face in the NFL. All this stock goes into the combine and I think it’s amazing a guy can throw a football a mile but can he find the right guy, make an accurate throw constantly under pressure, and all of that in mere seconds? Some guys thrive in it but most crumble. Kurt Warner is a good example of someone who showed very little as a college QB goes to the Arena league where it’s extremely fast not based so much on opposing talent but rules created to make it fast and thrived and I think that helped him transition into a HOF QB. All I can say is if you give up that kind of draft capital you cannot be wrong. He can’t even be average he has to be a franchise altering QB and as important as the position is historically it’s a bad bet. Again if it’s your pick you take your shot otherwise I’d go with a veteran paired with a top fifteen pick or a flyer on a mid round pick. There are no sure things and you don’t wager your home or your kids college fund on anything. The cost/risk is too high
Waiting for chapter 2.
Same lmao
Anyone who posts a 647 word comment probably has Ak185 as their mentor…lol
Are you Trump’s speech writer?
Trump writes his own speeches or mostly just wings it for an hour….probably had Trump write this post in his sleep lol
If Mayfield gets $40M/yr I will accept that the NFL is the new WWF.
I don’t like it, but it’s the market. Daniel Jones getting 40M/yr didn’t help.
Jones is paying a state tax rate of 6.625% on that $40MM, so the matching number would be $37.5MM since Florida has no state income tax. Add to that a slight Mayfield discount to help keep the band together and I think we’ll git’er done at 3 years, $100MM with $75MM guaranteed with incentives built in that could land Mayfield another $5MM per year.
That “state tax rate of 6.625%” is New Jersey sales tax. New Jersey state income tax can be as high as 10.75% depending on how much taxable income you have.
Even better!