Back from their bye week and preparing for a stretch of must-win games, the Bills may have one of their skill-position starters ready in time to begin that run. Sean McDermott said Wednesday the team will open Dawson Knox‘s practice window.
Knox, who has been out since October with a wrist injury, has missed the past five games. The Bills will have three weeks from Wednesday to activate their highly paid tight end. Buffalo is also designating cornerback Kaiir Elam for return. The struggling former first-round pick has missed time due to an ankle injury.
Sitting 6-6, the Bills are not in good shape on the injury front. Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano and DaQuan Jones sustained severe maladies early this season. But Buffalo has only used one injury activation previously, holding seven such moves for their post-bye period. Knox and Elam are on track to take up two of those slots.
Given a four-year, $52MM extension just before last season, Knox remains a key presence in Buffalo’s offense. Though, the team’s decision to select Dalton Kincaid in this year’s first round has affected the fifth-year tight end. The Bills have made significant investments in this position, doing so as they have not used a Day 1 or Day 2 draft choice on a wide receiver since McDermott’s first draft; the team chose Zay Jones in the 2017 second round. Granted, Buffalo traded a first-rounder for Stefon Diggs in 2020.
The Diggs-dependent passing attack still involved Knox before his injury. The Stanford product played 68% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps through seven games, but his aerial role has diminished. Knox caught 15 passes for just 102 yards before his wrist surgery. He topped 500 yards in each of the past two seasons. The Bills have been loosely tied to a Zach Ertz pursuit, but Knox’s return to join Kincaid would seemingly stand to send the ex-Eagles and Cardinals pass catcher elsewhere.
Elam’s early NFL performance has disappointed. The 2022 first-rounder, who appears to have been a Trent McDuffie consolation prize for the Bills, has failed to commandeer a starting job. With White again out for the season, the Bills traded for Rasul Douglas at the deadline. Elam appeared in trade rumors before his injury, but the Bills will still attempt to develop him. The 6-foot-1 corner has played in just three games this season, being a healthy scratch at points.
This is Dawson Knox’s last year in Buffalo.
I like Knox. Alot actually. But his salary and his usage dont align. Kincaid is better, and Shakir has been great since we dumped the two tight end experiment. (Also I never believed the Bills were interested in Ertz…how does that make any sense?)
He is worth something. He is a good tight end, but not enough footballs to justify the salary. He will be included in a draft day trade.
I dont feel that Elam has a future here either. I hope he gets into a few games, but they made him inactive this year when he was needed. That says something. I don’t think he has much trade value, but there may be a man heavy team who might do a late round swap.
If Knox is released:
2024 Dead Cap: $20,280,000
2024 Cap Savings: $-5,880,000
If Knox is traded:
2024 Dead Cap: $3,900,000
2025 Dead Cap: $7,800,000
2024 Cap Savings: $10,500,000
If they wait until 2025 the numbers are more forgiving.
That all said, I don’t think it’s a good idea unless a trade offer gives BUF a significant return. If Kincaid goes down and Knox is gone, who’s left to play TE?
The Bills also need to clear significant cap to even get compliant.
There just are not enough passes to justify his salary. Im just skeptical that keeping a backup TE on that salary is smart when you have more pressing needs. The backup TE SHOULD be low priority.
He will be attractive trade piece though. You cant keep everyone.
Plus, the offense was sluggish in 2TE sets. Knox wasn’t doing much before he was hurt.
Knowing how much Beane likes draft day trade – I 100 percent predict this.