Through 11 weeks, this NFL season has not produced an MVP favorite. Oddsmakers have slotted a number of usual suspects as frontrunners, but the stretch run will be important to generating a lead candidate.
No non-quarterback has won this award since Adrian Peterson‘s 2,097-yard rushing season edged Peyton Manning‘s Broncos debut in 2012, though J.J. Watt did finish second in voting in 2014. A quarterback will be expected to claim the honors this season, but that player has not declared himself just yet.
Two of the favorites faced off Monday night, with Jalen Hurts‘ Eagles besting the Chiefs in a Super Bowl LVII rematch. The Chiefs stifled Hurts for much of Philadelphia’s 21-17 win, but the dual-threat passer came through late. He is also the quarterback on the NFL’s only one-loss team. Hurts would have represented a strong MVP challenger to Patrick Mahomes last year, but a late-season shoulder injury led to the Chiefs superstar pulling away. QBR ranks the Super Bowl LVII QBs fifth and sixth, respectively, with Mahomes slipping to No. 5 after Kansas City’s loss.
After Hurts’ breakthrough 2022, the Eagles gave the fourth-year QB a then-record five-year, $255MM extension — one that set the market for Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Hurts has accounted for 24 touchdowns — nine on the ground, as he makes a case as the most unstoppable short-yardage QB rusher in NFL history — and has upped his completion percentage (68.5) from 2022.
Mahomes responded to the Tyreek Hill trade by notching the first MVP-Super Bowl MVP since Kurt Warner in 1999, and the Chiefs updated his contract to fall in line with the market Hurts helped set. Kansas City, however, has seen its oft-questioned wide receiver setup play a big role in both its home losses this year. Mahomes ranks 20th in yards per attempt, at 6.9; he cleared eight in each of his two MVP campaigns. With Travis Kelce in his age-34 season, will the seventh-year QB be able to overcome a suspect receiver setup?
Brock Purdy is leading the NFL (by a wide margin, at 9.7) in yards per attempt. After a midseason slump, Purdy has put together two strong games. He accomplished the 49ers’ first perfect passer rating in a game since 1989. Last year’s Mr. Irrelevant has been a revelation for the 49ers, who have his seventh-round contract on the books through 2025. Purdy also leads the league in QBR, providing an efficient season while blessed with an elite skill-position corps. Although this skill group could end up working against Purdy, he would become the most unlikely MVP since Warner.
No. 2 in QBR, Dak Prescott has put together a strong stretch since the Cowboys endured a blowout loss in San Francisco. After four straight one-touchdown showings, the eighth-year Cowboys starter has 13 TD tosses over his past four games. At this pace, the 30-year-old passer will be in position for another monster contract. With the franchise tag off the table and a $59MM cap hit awaiting in his 2024 contract year, Prescott is in one of the most player-friendly extension positions in league history.
Jackson sits ninth in QBR but has the Ravens perched as the AFC’s top seed for the time being. Given a $52MM-per-year deal that differed from his peers’ 2023 re-ups — in that it contains no extra years of control due to it coming after a Ravens franchise tag — Jackson is still operating a run-oriented offense. His 12 touchdown passes rank 16th, though his yards per attempt (8.1) and completion rate (69.5) figures are in the top six. Among this year’s contenders, Jackson joins Mahomes as the only former MVPs.
No rookie has claimed this award since Jim Brown in 1957, but this particular season does keep the door slightly ajar for C.J. Stroud. Almost no one expected the Texans to be in the playoff race, and the team sweeping the Jaguars would move an AFC South title closer to reality. Stroud has run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year race, doing so despite numerous O-line injuries. The No. 2 overall pick’s 2,962 passing yards sit second, but QBR places the Ohio State product 12th. Stroud’s three-INT game against the Cardinals hurt his cause, but the Houston rookie still has some time to make a historic push.
While Jared Goff (seventh in QBR) was once the throw-in in a trade that keyed a Matthew Stafford-led Rams Super Bowl charge, the Lions are 8-2 for the first time in 61 years. Detroit is 1-2 against teams with winning records, but a favorable schedule down the stretch stands to allow Goff — in Year 2 with OC Ben Johnson running the show — to make a case. The Lions ending up with home-field advantage in the NFC would obviously strengthen the former No. 1 overall pick’s cause. Regardless, the 29-year-old QB has moved into position for a lucrative Lions extension.
How the AFC East plays out stands to produce a contender. Although Josh Allen‘s turnover issues helped lead the Bills to fire OC Ken Dorsey, the sixth-year superstar leads the NFL with 22 TD passes (while pacing the league with 12 picks) while adding seven more scores on the ground. Tua Tagovailoa ranks just 10th in QBR — six spots behind Allen — and the Dolphins have fallen short in matchups against the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles. That said, the Bills have five losses to the Dolphins’ three. Miami first-place scoring ranking will obviously benefit its ascending passer, though Tua could conceivably split votes with Hill.
No wide receiver has ever won MVP acclaim, and Hill’s off-field history will not help his case. But his impact on the Dolphins has been undeniable. The former Chiefs speed merchant has changed Tagovailoa’s career trajectory, and the eighth-year wideout leads the NFL with 1,222 receiving yards — in front by 209 — despite the Dolphins already resting during a bye week. While Jerry Rice and Calvin Johnson could not parlay their receiving yardage records into MVP honors — respectively losing out to Brett Favre (1995) and Peterson (2012) — this QB pace persisting would stand to keep Hill going. Christian McCaffrey also makes sense as a candidate. His midseason 2022 arrival catalyzed the 49ers, and despite missing a game, the ex-Panthers extension recipient leads the NFL with 825 rushing yards. No other RB has posted more than 700, and this would obviously be an interesting year to see a running back emerge as a true MVP candidate.
Could this be the year a defender sneaks through? Only Alan Page and Lawrence Taylor have done so, but with no QB residing as a clear frontrunner, is a door ajar for Myles Garrett or T.J. Watt powering offensively limited teams? Is there an off-grid player who shapes up as a late-season threat? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on the race in the comments section.
McCaffrey and his family all voting
The Herbert and Burrow deals are looking awful right now.
Burrow got hurt. No one expects injuries.
Herberts been playing well.
10 games 2600 yards, 19 TDs, 5 ints 66% completion. Hes gonna pass 4000 yards, 25 TDs with 7 games left if he stays healthy. Hes dealt with injuries around him. Ekeler, Williams primarily. You cant ask much more out of your qb. Herbert doesnt play defense which is the chargers issue since staley has been hired.
Cinncy is 5-5 & in 4th place.
Chargers are 4-6 & in 4th place.
Like I say, they are looking like bad deals, at least for this year.
Cool. So the record is only the qbs fault?
Cause bengals defense is ranks 30th in total defense and chargers ranks 31st in total defense.
Not sure how bengals defense and chargers defense are burrows and herberts fault.
Kind of weird that youre judging the contract for 1 player based on how the entire team is performing. Youd think youd judge how the player is performing considering they cant control things like defense or special teams.
I’m not judging the teams, I’m judging the QB’s & their contracts. Where’s their value for this year?
Herbert is 29-30, where’s his actual value? Burrow is good but has missed considerable time 2 out of 4 years.
Give Herbert a coach like Andy Reid his career looks different. Staley is a garbage coach. As for Burrow, it turns out you need to have a good offensive line to be a successful team for more than a season. Teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, etc who tend to be good year after year invest in their lines. What is idiotic is paying a QB hundreds of millions of dollars and not protecting your investment.
Wah wah wah. It’s always something, or someone else’s fault. ‘It’s a team sport!’ ‘It’s the coaches!’ ‘It’s injuries (Burrow’s calf)’ ‘it’s….!’ whatever.
Herbert is under .500 and Burrow is hurt again. Both are expensive and underperforming as their last place rankings in the division ranks state so.
If Burrow and Herbert didn’t realize they play for bad organizations & situations, that’s on them. They aren’t forced to re-up. Eli bolting the Bolts was a smart decision. Didn’t Herbert learn that lesson, guess not.
I’m not blaming the long snapper or punter or equipment manager for Burrow being hurt. His line has been hot garbage for years. It’s why you had Andrew Luck, a generational talent, ruined in Indy. You need to protect your QB.
Yes, the Bengals line has been awful his entire rookie contract & still is. Was he forced to re-up, no. His choice. He knew that prior to signing. Bengals ‘big’ addition to the line this year was Orlando Brown that KC was happy to let walk.
No different for Herbert. Everyone was calling for the HC to be fired after the Jags playoff loss. They didn’t & he re-upped. Blame Justin.
Team record =/= individual player performance.
“underperforming as their last place rankings in the division ranks state so.”
That is such a grossly bad horrible take.
Joe Thomas saw 1 winning season in cleveland. Walked away with a HOF career, 10 pro bowls, and 6 all pros.
Calvin Johnson saw 2 winning seasons in detroit. Walked away with a HOF career, 6 pro bowls, and 3 all pros.
Watch ‘Bye bye Barry’ on Netflix. I just finished it. Sanders got fed up w/ the constant losing/falling short and retired at 30-31. The numbers HoF’ers care about is winning.
CJ followed in Barry’s footsteps and said ‘Enough!’. I bet Joe, Calvin, & Barry would trade their stats and HoF resumes for a ring; or at least constant winning. That’s the goal.
Doubt theyd give up a hof career for a ring.
53 players win a ring every year. Nobody remembers 50+ of them long term.
Kelce and Mahomes will be canton bound. The rest. Not so much. Hof careers transcend generations. People constantly talk about the greats all the time. They show up everywhere. Rings eventually become oh yeah the bears (the team) won it in 85. Nobody remembers most of their names without googling it.
People still talk about Dan Marino. Not so much Trent Dilfer.
BS! The ultimate goal is to win it all. That’s it. That’s how you’re measured. For your era, and in the history books.
Trent gets to go to SB reunions just like Flacco.
But being a Padres fan, you don’t understand winning.
K. Well if youre judging qbs and their contracts idk why you have issue with Herberts contract.
Hes paid top of the market and hes performing at top of the market
8th in yards
9th in yards per attempt
7th in rating
3rd in tds
Herbert is 29-30. That’s his record. Everything else is just numbers. It’s sports, it’s about winning; not yardage, yards per attempt etc. W-L is what’s always remembered.
No different than Phillip Rivers. A HOF’er w/ plenty of stats; except playoff record and division titles. Comparable stats/numbers was the person he replaced, Brees. Both have great stats for their era, but Brees has that ring. Big difference in perspective.
In 10 years, we won’t compare Herbert vs. Burrow in stats (both will have them), but big games won by them.
Qb record is as dumb as pitcher wins and losses. Not an accurate or good way to judge a qb or pitcher.
Winning is a team sport. Youre saying 29-30 is herberts record. Wrong. Thats the chargers record. Offense. Defense. Special teams. Herbert doesnt play defense or special teams.
Herbert is 9th in yards per game
Chargers are 11th in total yards per game
Chargers are 8th in scoring
Herbert and offense are doing their job.
Ask Marino or Fouts if they would like a ring over stats. Both are HoF QB’s fading out of memory because they never won it all. It’s not rocket science, it’s pro sports.
Is Cousins’ great in your eyes? He has plenty of stats over his decade+ long career, but few big game wins.
If given the choice of hof career or win a ring play a few seasons fade away many players would choose hof career cause as competitors they want to be recognized as one of the greatest to ever play the game. Champipnship would be nice. But a bust in canton, gold jacket, and knwowing youre one of the greatest to ever play the game thats special. Fyi theres less hofs than superbowl ring winners.
56 superbowls x 53 players is about 3000 superbowl rings
Theres 370 players in the hof.
‘Championships would be nice’? Apparently you’ve never played competitive sports. Winning is everything.
You don’t think the person that came in 4th in the Olympics doesn’t wish they were 0.0001% faster for a bronze? Or any other minor difference in another Olympic sport coming up a ‘split difference’ short?
Grow up.
Awe arty is getting a wittle upset love it.
Your analogies are dumb. The fact you bring up the olympics is because you cant counter anything i said football related. I humbly accept you admitting defeat.
Fyi, olympics are individual sports in a lot of ways for the most part, some team events. Happens every 4 years. So theres not really a hof category cause participants rotate out pretty often.
Nope, I love mocking people here. Enjoy losing that’s what you brag about. Who cares about winning when you can have stats that fade away in 3 years or less in the minds of fans.
Youre not very good at mocking people when youre the 1st one to lost it telling someone grow up cause youre losing a discussion.
And now youre throwing a tantrum like a toddler. Perfect.
“Enjoy losing that’s what you brag about.”
Team record =/= individual performance. I told you this already.
“Who cares about winning when you can have stats that fade away in 3 years or less in the minds of fans.”
Hofers usually last 2-3 decades after playing careers. Longer now thanks to social media.
Losing what? you saying losing is acceptable. I say winning is the goal? But plenty of room on the Chargers and Bengals band wagon, hop on. Heck, there’s so much room on the Chargers ‘wagon, that when they have ‘home’ games, the visiting team has more fans!
But stay on their wagons. Don’t jump off when they continually lose. As both franchises have for….4+ decades.
1. Where did i say losing is acceptable. Fire brandon staley. I did say team record isnt a good way to judge individual players. Its not.
2. Your reading comprehension skills arent very good
3. You blame the qb and despite evidence proving its not herbert as to why the chargers are losing (top 10 offense, top 10 qb play, 31st in defense) you somehow ignore all that and come up with silly conclusions and still blame herbert.
Damn smart phones.
They found actual 100% serious comments no joking actually what he thinks, made by arty on tik tok
link to tiktok.com
Thank you! Justin knew his team was bad and decided to stay anyways.
You just proved my point. He chose padded stats and money over actually winning.
You should learn to read.
I said no one forced Herbert to re-up. He chose to stay w/ a losing organization. Same for Burrow. Both played for 3 years and knew their franchises. No one, except you, is surprised that the Chargers are losing, & Burrow was going to get crushed.
A contemporary example, Jalen Ramsey knew the Jags were poorly run and demanded a trade. He didn’t want to waste his career on a bad team. Joe and Justin chose differently.
“Like why didnt Justin Herbert just run out onto the field and tell Michael Davis how to properly play quarters defense as a cornerback to prevent the go ahead touchdown? I mean justin herbert is a team leader right?”
Actual thought Arty has.
Once again, a 1st grade/elementary level question; 4-6 year old aged level question.
‘Who forced Herbert to re-up with a team he knew was poorly run & coached?’.
Oh so you admit 29-30 is a reflection on the team now.
Funny cause you said “Herbert is 29-30. That’s his record. Everything else is just numbers.” So guess wins and losses are a team accomplishment after all not just 1 individual. Contradicted yourself there.
“How could Justin Herbert force Quentin Johnston to drop that pass to put them in field goal range. Man. Justin Herbert has got to deliver better scouting reports before chargers draft someone. All scouting reports expressed concerns over johnstons drops in college. Herbert has to do better scouting during the offseason”.
Actual thought by Arty.
Before even 1 snap- some 20 years ago, Eli was smart enough to know the Spanos were losers. Herbert and you haven’t figured that out. Only 4 decades to see the results.
Enjoy losing, the San Diego way.
Please copy and paste that quote you said I wrote.
Not a chargers fan. So your poor attempts at insults dont really affect me.
I just pointed out youre dumb to think the chargers issues are herberts fault, backed up by facts.
Anytime you need educated ill be there to help you
Herbert’s fault, once again, was not demanding a trade. Justin knows it’s a poorly run team. He lived it for 3 years. How is this so hard for you to understand?
Arty argument – record is the qbs fault
“Cinncy is 5-5 & in 4th place.
Chargers are 4-6 & in 4th place.
Like I say, they are looking like bad deals, at least for this year.”
“Herbert is 29-30. That’s his record. Everything else is just numbers. It’s sports, it’s about winning; not yardage, yards per attempt etc.
– artys comments
Artys argument- team underperforming is qbs fault
“Herbert is under .500 and Burrow is hurt again. Both are expensive and underperforming as their last place rankings in the division ranks state so.” – artys comment
Facts proved you wrong multiple times in this thread.
Any time you need educated ill be there.
Once again, thank you. Both Bengals and Chargers are in last place in their divisions with highly paid QB’s that aren’t winning.
You can copy & paste my real comments. Not make believe ones your imagination thinks I said.
It’s ok to admit when you’re wrong.
Something like 15 out of the last 16 MVPs were QBs. So….
Jarod Goff…MVP
I’d vote for Jordan Love…just to wind up Aaron Rodgers.
Haha
He will be now be back playing tomorrow.
CJ STROUD