Extension-eligible since January 2022, Brian Burns is approaching the point of playing into a contract year. Two weeks into training camp, the two sides have some work to do.
The Panthers and Burns are not believed to be close on terms, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN.com notes. This extension has been on the Panthers’ radar for a while, initially coming up in April 2022, and the Panthers have made an offer. But Burns remains tied to his rookie contract.
Carolina has changed head coaches and defensive coordinators, with Ejiro Evero calling the shots for Frank Reich‘s team on defense. Scott Fitterer was not in place as GM when the Panthers drafted Burns, but that has not stopped the team from planning this extension. This has brought a drawn-out process, however, and Fowler adds Burns does not sound like he is leery of beginning his fifth-year option season without an extension in place. Thanks to the Fitterer-Matt Rhule tandem picking up that option, Burns is tied to a $16MM guaranteed salary for 2023.
Trade talks also stand to embolden Burns, whose next contract will likely place him in the top five among edge rusher AAV. The Panthers turned down a two-first-rounder offer from the Rams for Burns before the 2022 trade deadline. If that were not enough, Burns’ camp can point to Fitterer and Co. refusing to deal him to the Bears in March’s exchange for the No. 1 pick — a swap that required the Panthers to send D.J. Moore to Chicago.
The top domino on the edge market has yet to fall, which also could be impacting Burns’ talks with the Panthers. The 49ers and Nick Bosa remain in negotiations, as the reigning Defensive Player of the Year stages a holdout. Bosa has long been on the radar to eclipse Aaron Donald‘s $31.7MM-per-year salary, which leads the pack among defenders. Burns is not a candidate to compete with Bosa, but a new salary ceiling would stand to benefit the fellow 2019 first-rounder.
Burns, 25, has missed all of two games as a pro. He is coming off a career-high 12.5 sacks (to go with 22 QB hits), getting there despite the Panthers having let Haason Reddick walk in free agency. Carolina did not acquire a comparable Reddick successor last year, but the team did bring in Justin Houston — with a $6MM guarantee — over the weekend. Houston’s presence figures to help Burns, but with the former going into his age-34 season, no issue exists regarding who is the Panthers’ centerpiece pass rusher.
As of now, the $23.5MM-per-year mark represents the fifth spot in the edge defender salary pecking order. It should be expected Burns is aiming to pass the Bradley Chubb–Maxx Crosby point, with the salary cap on track to make another big jump in 2024. The next level would be the Joey Bosa–Myles Garrett tier. The Browns All-Pro is tied to $25MM per year, while the injury-prone Chargers ace is at $27MM AAV. That will be tougher territory to enter, but the Panthers’ recent trade talks and their cap sheet — one now featuring Bryce Young‘s rookie contract — all represent positive developments for the ascending sack artist.
I do not think that Burns will able to surpass J. Bosa/Garrett at this point in time. Burns will certainly be paid on potential rather than past, but he has one double digit sack season to his credit (although he has two 9 sack seasons). Garrett has thrived on the double digit sack, posting 16 the past two years for 74.5, and J. Bosa has collected 60.5 despite his injuries. Interestingly enough, Burns’ and Bosa’s career highs are both 12.5 currently. Bosa also a DRoY award to go with that, however.
Crosby has two double digit seasons, but a couple fewer in his single digit seasons. Production-wise, his career is of similar length and statistical value to Burns’. The natural increase in contract values over the years and Burns’ youth (not to mention the trade offers turned down for him) will probably push Burns’ price above that and may make his final contract closer to Garrett/Bosa than it otherwise would have been. It also gives Burns some leverage that Carolina has been reported to have turned down great offers for him (as good as Burns is, the Rams are lucky to have not parted with those picks for a single player, and Carolina would have enjoyed having them).
I would guess that Carolina sees Burns as between those two tiers, and began by offering the Crosby level. Burns is likely closer to the other end. Splitting the difference is smart, but $16 million right now is probably a good value for Burns compared to what he would get. Though there is the lack of long term security with the one year on the option, I don’t think either party is expecting Carolina to not make an honest attempt on locking in their star.
I see Carolina ending up paying burns around $24.5-$26.5 AAV/yr! 5yr/$122.5-$132.5; approximately $104M guaranteed.