Offseason additions will make the AFC East perhaps the league’s most captivating divisional race. The Bills have won this division three years running, recovering from a 17-year playoff drought by advancing to five postseasons in six years of the Sean McDermott–Brandon Beane era. But the Jets and Dolphins took big swings to narrow the gap. And the Patriots present an annually high floor, having the most accomplished HC (by a rather wide margin) in the division.
Buffalo did not exactly stand pat this offseason, prioritizing a first-round trade-up for Utah tight end Dalton Kincaid. This year’s top tight end draftee is expected to play a regular role as a slot performer for the Bills, who will have Stefon Diggs (assuming he is on the same page with the organization), Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox back. Buffalo also beefed up its offensive line, signing Connor McGovern — to give the division both Connor McGoverns — to go with second-round guard O’Cyrus Torrence. Signed to a low-cost deal, ex-Rams starter David Edwards also has extensive starting experience. The Bills also added former Patriots starter Damien Harris, he of 15 rushing touchdowns in 2021, to just a one-year deal worth $1.77MM.
Defensively, the Bills’ top addition came via the June Leonard Floyd signing. Buffalo guaranteed the ex-Von Miller Los Angeles teammate $7MM to both help the team while Miller recovers from his second ACL tear — if the future Hall of Famer needs regular-season recovery time like Tre’Davious White did last year — and provide a high-end complementary edge presence to help Miller and a young edge-rushing crew. Floyd has racked up 29 sacks over the past three seasons.
Last year’s second-place finishers took aim at the Bills by adding two major defensive pieces. Miami made Vic Fangio the league’s highest-paid defensive coordinator, hiring the ex-Denver HC for more than $4.5MM per year to work with Mike McDaniel. DVOA rated the Dolphins’ defense 15th last season; the team now has Jalen Ramsey in place opposite Xavien Howard. The Dolphins pried Ramsey from the suddenly cost-conscious Rams for only a third-round pick and tight end Hunter Long, though it took a contract adjustment as well. Ramsey earned first-team All-Pro honors in two of his three full seasons with the Rams.
The Dolphins let Mike Gesicki walk and have not made a notable tight end addition, and they re-signed their top three running backs from last season. In addition to re-upping Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, the Dolphins drafted Devon Achane in Round 3. They are also believed to be the clubhouse leaders to add Dalvin Cook as a hired gun of sorts. Cook is a Miami native who has mentioned the Dolphins as a “perfect fit.”
Most discussions of this division’s outlook will begin with the Jets’ top addition. It took far more than the Brett Favre trade required, but Gang Green landed Aaron Rodgers. It cost the team a first-round pick swap and a second-round choice this year, and the Packers will likely — barring injury — obtain the Jets’ 2024 first-rounder. But the upgrade the Jets will make in going from Zach Wilson to Rodgers is difficult to overstate. The four-time MVP attended the Jets’ OTA sessions, after skipping the Packers’ voluntary workouts in 2021 and ’22, and brought ex-Packers Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and tackle Billy Turner with him. The Jets are gambling that Nathaniel Hackett can shake off a woeful stay as the Broncos’ play-caller, and the team does have big questions at tackle, with both Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton coming off injuries.
Another ex-Packer, Adrian Amos, arrived in town to help the Jets cover for one of their other additions, Chuck Clark, tearing an ACL. First-round defensive end Will McDonald — believed to be, by most, an emergency option after the Steelers took Broderick Jones — also led off the Jets’ draft. Not many holes existed for Robert Saleh‘s vastly improved defense.
An assistant hire profiles as the Patriots’ top move. After a strange effort to give defensive coach Matt Patricia offensive play-calling duties predictably backfired, the Pats rehired Bill O’Brien as OC. The former Texans HC already has the offense headed in a better direction, and he is believed to be on the same page with free agent target DeAndre Hopkins despite pulling the trigger on the 2020 Houston-Arizona trade. The Pats also gave Mac Jones a weapon in J.J. Smith-Schuster, the Chiefs’ top 2022 wideout who will be tasked with replacing Jakobi Meyers.
The Patriots have failed to form a top-11 scoring defense exactly once in the past 15 years, and Bill Belichick‘s unit now has first- and second-round picks Christian Gonzalez and Keion White. The team re-signed Jonathan Jones and is prepared to move the secondary staple back inside, but a big question mark now looms with emerging boundary defender Jack Jones, who faces potential prison time for gun charges.
Have the Jets and Dolphins done enough to topple the Bills? Are the Patriots — a 2021 playoff team that took a big step back on offense under Patricia and Joe Judge — being slept on? Vote in PFR’s latest poll and weigh in with your thoughts on this division in the comments section.
Bad poll. I’ve tried 3 times to vote and it doesn’t register
In other words your a Democrat.
I enjoyed this one liner. Thank you.
I don’t understand why Buffalo wants their QB to be their leading rusher. That’s bad management. But Josh is the best QB in the division & that counts.
Jets QB: Aaron Rodgers is a beast and doesn’t need your approval. 4 MVP Awards, 1 Super Bowl Win. Best QB in the AFC EAST.
Dolphins QB: Tua is awesome as long as he can stay up right.
Patriots QB: Mac Jones is finally getting a real OC this year, so we have to wait and see what he can really do.
Bills QB: Josh Allen is overrated, sorry about it. He made it to an AFC Championship game like 2 years ago and lost, wow, that’s amazing, but that aint 4 MVP’s and SB Win. Once again, Josh Allen is overrated and the division has only gotten stronger.
Aaron is in steep decline. And they have bad OT’s on both sides of the line. The Jets will hover around 500. Like Brett did.
Tua can’t stay healthy. hasn’t played a full season since high school(?) been a long time.
Mac isn’t even liked by Bill! Benched twice last year.
It’s the Bills division again.
Steep decline? Broken thumb on his throwing hand last season, he still played well.
No it’s not the Bills division. Aaron isn’t Brett, to even mention it is silly, completely different people and talent. What Brett did after Green Bay doesn’t dictate Aaron’s success in New York. That’s like saying we all know how much trouble Aaron is going to be in with insurance scams after he retires because Brett was.
Steep decline? Haha that’s funny, back to back league MVP but didn’t get it last season so he must be washed, ye have little faith my friend. You are entitled to your opinion but the Bills got lucky when Tom left for the Bay, otherwise Tom would have kept on owning them even with Allen at the helm. I think the Bill’s window is getting smaller every year, Diggs may finish out the season if he can hold his emotions in check. Who else do they have? Allen, Diggs, and Von Miller, aside from those 3 guys that team is mediocre.
There is a very real chance that the Bills will miss the playoffs this year. If Tua stays healthy the Dolphins are going to the playoffs. The Jets were a good team with bad QB play last year, now they got one of the best to ever play the position, they are going to make a push for the playoffs. The Patriots are going to be a 500 team. This is one the toughest divisions in all of football now, Bills do not have anything guaranteed.
He’s in steep, steep decline. Injuries were not why he was terrible a year ago.
You need to come to grips with reality….Rodgers is in steep decline. His arm strength and mobility are long gone. Trading for a nearly 40-year old athlete is always a bad idea.
Grips with reality? Save your comments friend, you better bring something more then just your opinion, try throwing some numbers at me that can help validate your miss guided opinion because you are not bringing nothing new the table with this BS. Rodgers is first ballet future hall of famer, Josh Allen is QB in New York, he has some really stacked stats, that’s great, when he wins something then the argument for best QB can actually begin. Rodgers having a bad year doesn’t mean much, if he plays poorly this year then people can start talking crap, but 1 bad year doesn’t mean anything even at his age.
We’ll see, but I have no faith in Aaron regaining MVP form. Other than Tom, name great play from a 39 year old player. Ben, both Mannings, Breese Wilson, Rivers… All recent or soon to be HoF’ers fell off a cliff. I’m sure once his play gets questioned, he’ll have another injury though.
Aaron doesn’t have to return to MVP form in order for the Jets to have success. The Jets were competitive last season with garbage QB play, all Rodgers has to do is play better than Zach Wilson and Flacco. The team is good, Rodgers doesn’t have to be great he just needs to be good. I think he is more than capable of it.
7-10 is competitive? Save your typing, I know you’re going to blame the QB play.
I do look fun to debating you through the season about the Jets. I’m ready for camp to open!
I will debate you any time about any team and any topic. Man do you seriously not blame the Jets 7-10 season on poor QB play? QB is the most important position on the field. The Jets started off 7-4 and lost the last 6 games. 7-4 is a competitive record and yes they lost the 6 in a row but they did that with Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Mike White.
I am exhausted, it’s been fun debating with you, we shall see what happens when the season gets rolling.
1. Jets are improved for sure – still not the best team in AFC East. He wont be MVP Rodgers, but being better than last year’s qbs is such a low bar.
2. We all think thar because Brady played until he was old enough to get a discount at Dennys that playing elite in the late 30’s is normal – its far from it. Age and regression are real things. Sorry, but its true.
3. Rodgers did not okay well last year. Plenty of bad plays were on him – the thumb is a convenient excuse. He tried to cover it up by blaming the young receivers. Perhaps his ego would have allowed him to be at OTAs last year (or this year) to meld with the new guys? (Nope)
4. Does Rodgers really even want to play? He had to go into a hippie tent for three days to decide, and when he came out the trade holdup was somewhat related to his contract and cap number and he didn’t want to move on that.
5. The Jets are a good team. They have a good roster, but Im not sold on this being a great move. As a Bills fan, I felt that Carr was a better answer and for longer term. I think the chances are good this is a playoff team, and they might even beat the Bills once this year – they always give them all they can handle. A small upgrade in the QB room means they are better, and certainly shouldn’t be overlooked – but let’s be realistic.
7-10 is definitely competitive in the NFL. Their point differential was only -20. They were also 7-4 until they lost their last six games, and they only averaged 11 points a game in those six losses. So, yes, you can absolutely blame their record on QB play.
You answered my question. They lost their last 6 games. Same for the Titans. That’s not competitive having a losing streak for that long. Sure, they played competitive football for the 1st half of the season, but not second. Would you agree to that?
Watch any Packers game from 2010 or so (there are plenty of them on YouTwob). Three things stand out as compared to 2020-2022: Rodgers’ accuracy is still remarkable, but his arm strength and escape-ability has declined markedly.
Besides
All Pro Micah Hyde
All Pro Tre White
All Pro Jordan Poyer
All Pro Matt Milano
Pro Bowler Dion Dawkins
Pro Bowler Mitch Morse
Pro Bowler Dawson Knox
1k Rusher Damien Harris
One of the best Slot Corners in Terron Johnson
1st Round picks at premium positions like
Boundary Corner like Kaiir Elam, DT Ed Oliver, Edge Rousseau and TE Kincaid and Battle tested depth all over the roster, the Bills obviously have no talent besides Diggs/Allen/Miller. Obviously that team that went 13/3 is going to just crumble and disappear. Jets fans are delusional
Bills could barely put away Miami last year in thr playoffs. If Tua stays healthy they are a complete team and can take the division.
Lol. The dolphins are a complete team? When did that happen? The Dolphins are a team that invests in shiny toys and does nothing to protect its injury prone QB. They a team that doesn’t draft well and doesn’t have any depth because they spend all their money and draft capitol on overpriced aged out vets. It’s a team with a ton of sizzle but very little steak.
They finished 2nd in the AFC East missing their QB, and they hung around with Buffalo in the playoff game. They have a great D, now one of the best DCs. If they get Cook at RB they definitely can win that division.
Lol… I love when context matters to a Homer because they immediately dump context from the other side. Cool.. the Dolphins hung around with a divisional opponent in a wild card game…let’s talk about that.
Bills were literally dealing with a team mate that died on the field. Aside from that, the Bills were down;
All pro Micah Hyde
All Pro Poyer had a legit torn Menicus and broken ribs
All Pro White was 60 of what he was after a complete ACL reconstruction.
First Ballot HOFer Von Miller was out.
You dolphins fans crack me up. You are 2/11 against the Bills but every time you feel you get close, you pound your chest and strut.. who kicked you out of the playoffs? Who has been your divisional daddy? Who has Josh owned more than any other team? Who has knocked Tua out twice?
Your team is simply not mentally strong enough to handle the Bills.
Ohhhh that’s you. So go have that high school camp counselor that you call a head coach go smoke his THC vape as much as he wants… the Dolphins will still be looking up under Josh Allen’s Boot heal.
Your first mistake is assuming I’m a Miami fan. I’m not. Thats what Homers do though. They assume and look foolish.
Thr Bills should’ve put Miami away in that playoff game. They didn’t. Biggest factor I see for the Bills going down a notch is losing Daboll.
The Bills will win it, but the Jets hovered around .500 with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White, and they upgraded the WR room, too.
Mr Devious – for the record , I am not a fan of any of these teams …. Which being impartial I can also say that Aaron is a shell of his old self. I can see a path for any of these teams to win the division. But if I have to pick, I’d say Buffalo wins – Pats / Jets 2nd or 3rd in no particular order …. Tua out by week 5 and Miami in last.
I am not a fan of these teams either, I am also an impartial observer. I disagree with you that a man becomes a shell of his former self after 1 year of a less than desirable performance.
You cannot also not just assume Tua will be out by week 5 just because he got injured last year. That’s like saying well Stafford will be out by week 7 just because he got injured last year he must be getting injured again. Oh and of course Lamar isn’t going to play well all year because guess what he also got injured last year, so by your logic if you get injured this year there is no way you are staying healthy next year right. Its idiotic, its sad people think so little of other human beings. Lamar was an MVP 4 years ago, and hasn’t returned to form, but people are not talking about him being a shell of his former self.
I remember when Payton Manning got injured and the Colts let him go. People saying oh Manning is washed, then he went and won a SB with the Broncos. This is football, any given Sunday any team can win. It is fun to speculate what a team or player is going to do, but we have no idea in reality.
All 4 of these AFC East teams have talent and potential, how it plays out is of very little concern for me, it is purely entertainment.
Allen is a lot bigger and sturdier than the average NFL QB though, Arty. The average height and weight for a linebacker entering the league is 6-foot-2 and 240 pounds. Josh, by comparison is 6-foot-5 and 238 pounds.
He’s a big guy but running QB’s have a much shorter shelf. Cam would be comparable interns of size and running ability. Was done by his early 30’s.
That’s why I’m fascinated that the NFL media is so hyped about Fields. “He might be the best running QB in the game today!’ All that got them was the #1 overall pick right?
QB’s throw the ball. Maybe a bit of scrambling from time to time, but not a significant part of the play calling which is what the Bills do.
Good to see common sense prevail in the results of the poll. It doesn’t matter who the Jets get as they’ll continue to be the Jets and do Jets things.
Without Aaron Rodgers, the Jets don’t get the maximum 6 night games nor any plum doubleheader late-game slots. Star power does count for something.
You are likely right that the Jets don’t win the division, Motown, but it’s funny talking about common sense then saying the Jets will continue to be the Jets and do Jets things like sports aren’t cyclical and teams don’t eventually get better, especially when they add a ton of talent. Common sense says they won’t be bad forever.
Exactly. Not sure what being the Jets and doing Jets things means?? Sounds like a muppet talking.
The Jets are the Leafs of the NFL. All hype and no results. Well they do get laughs out of the rest of us so there is that.
It’s really a stupid take right from the echo chamber, though. The Leafs consistently make the playoffs and have a chance every year. I would much rather be a fan of them right now than the Coyotes, Sabres, Red Wings, or Blue Jackets who haven’t been good for the last decade… but even those teams will get better at some point. There are ebbs and flows to sports, as teams improve while others fall off. The Jets will improve and the Leafs are already in a good place. It’s either very lazy analysis, very iignorant analysis, or both.
The fact that the Patriots have more votes here than the Jets shows the true hate and ignorance of the population. The Jets have so much more talent than the Patriots it’s not even funny
The Jets have moved ahead of the Patriots in the voting but talent is just part of the equation. Belichick has 28 years of HC experience and Saleh has 2. Total mismatch there.
Allen Lazard made it clear he was going to sign with the Jets even if they didn’t get Rodgers. There’s a difference between the present-day Robert Saleh and the present-day equivalent of Jeff Fisher.
Saleh seemed like a strange choice for the Jets but if he can somehow turn them into division champs, then he deserves all the accolades he receives.
How often does the off-season winner translate to an in-season winner? Besides the Rams, I can’t think of many.
rkmark 2….. exactly…. look at the “Off-season” winners in baseball…. METS & PADRES…. how’s that working out?
The National Sports Media and the New York Sports Media all say hi.
Yet the Jets have not beat the Patriots in like 7 years… even with 3 and out Mac Jones at QB.
The Jets should’ve won both Patriot games last term. First game turned when the Jets had a pick-6 called back for roughing the passer. Second game was decided on a punt return TD with :05 left.
Butt hurt Jets fans are hilarious
If Aaron Rodgers replicates his 2022 numbers, it would be the best overall season by a Jets quarterback in franchise history, which isn’t saying much. Odds are he will improve on those numbers.
I am more worried about the Jets ability to run the ball. Breece Hall might not be ready to hit the ground running, even if he starts the year on the PUP list. Our ground game was awful against good-great run defenses. Aside from Hall, Carter is the only legitimate pass catching back. Izzy and Bam Knight are unproven.
Add Dalvin Cook and I think this Jets team can practice patience with Hall. I worry about the depth at safety and linebacker too but no team is perfect. Let’s go Jets!
Odds are that he will improve at his age? ok
The point he was obviously making is that the team around him will be better. Was that really so hard to figure out?
Obviously the Bills have to be considered the front runners but if their top WR Diggs is not a happy camper as rumors have been suggesting then they probably won’t coast to another easy division title.
Who cares if he’s happy? The Bills are the team to beat. I’m a Pats fan.
You forgot to mention the Dolphins acquiring Jalen Ramsey to improve their secondary.
It wasn’t worth mentioning. He’s at the age where his cap numbers are more astounding than his performance numbers.
Truth
I think Aaron Rodgers will be better than people think. Not sure where all the Tua love comes from. There was serious talk about retirement b/c of all the concussions. Tua is talented, but 1 hit away from the end of his season. Mac lacks the special qualities of an elite QB but fan have a solid season. Until Rodgers proves he can sling it or Tua proves he can stay healthy, Josh Allen rightfully owns the preseason top spot.
I’d say the AFC East finishes as such:
1. Bills
2. Jets
3. Dolphins
4. Patriots
Wouldn’t surprise me to see 3 teams from the AFCE make the playoffs. Buffalo has a very talented roster, but Ken Dorsey needs to prove he can handle the offense, luckily for him he’s got a QB that can rewrite playart post snap. I’m not sure Aaron Rodgers is going to take NJ over the top, but I think he’s good enough to help a defensive unit hold onto wins a little more reliably. Miami is such a wildcard, great potential to slug with the best, and yet still fizzle out with the worst. Then there’s New England.. a couple great players here and there maybe, but ultimately don’t see them pushing for playoff contention in a high powered AFC.
Patriots haven’t finished 4th in their division since Bill Belichick started coaching there in 2000.
So….it cant happen?
Huh?
No it can happen, in fact it looks like the year in which they do finally fall to 4th due to the strength of their division rivals, but I was honestly just pointing out another interesting fact about the division in which your team plays.
They were one game away from it last year. Add that to the fact that they have the worst QB in the division.
What happens in the AFC East largely depends on 1. which Aaron Rodgers shows up and 2. which of Tua, Rodgers or Allen is injured.
The Jets would have done better to have brought in Jacoby Brissett with no loss of draft picks and continued to stack the defense and the offense. Or if Rodgers was coming over, absolutely no significant trade capital. The Packers had to find a taker for Rodgers or they would have gone bankrupt.
Washington was completely mismanaged by Snyder and didn’t go bankrupt so I’m not sure I agree with your final point Alec.
Check the Rodgerx cap numbers pre-trade. Bankruptin terms of salary cap. Unable to field a competitive team for three years.
Cap numbers tend to be flexible and not that difficult to manipulate. It wasn’t many months ago everyone was stating New Orleans was in cap purgatory and wouldn’t be competitive for a few years. According to Spotrac they are now 13th in cap space, so those who predicted doom seem to have overreacted.
You have an answer for everything don’t you Lemon? The Packers were head to purgatory for four years if they didn’t manage to trade Rodgers.
Whoever is running the Jets’ front office is not a particularly sharp dealer. There is no reason for any first round draft capital to be exchanged for Rodgers. The Packers made out like bandits, when in fact their backs were too the wall.
The real winner from the AFC East this year will be the NY sports media. Every AFC East team has soap opera potential.
The Dolphins and Patriots aren’t based in NY so their seat at the drama festival will have to be filled by the Giants.
The NYC media was obsessed with Tom Brady and the Patriots – basically adopting them as their own once the Jets sank to mediocrity. I don’t know if this was due to the Belichick Jets linkage or the Brady super model linkage, but it was clearly unnatural for people that should be covering the Jets/Giants.
Mike Lupica and Gary Myers are the NYC writers who especially worship the Cheatriots because the team’s M.O. was “the ends justify the means”. Don’t dare bring up spying, gangstas, running it up, much less deflated footballs.
Even if you discount the Jets and Giants, there are still at least 6 other professional sports teams based out of NY that the local media should be covering rather than pandering to fans elsewhere.
The National Sports Media cares about a soap opera. NY-area tabloids don’t have the influence that they used to.
Who knows. All I can say is I am very excited to watch this division. I do think NE is the weaker of the teams but I hope I’m wrong. From New England, go bucs, go pats. Go mass pirates. Go football
I’m pretty certain I would have given this comment an upvote if it had ended with “GO FUND ME”