Raiders Not Closing Door On Josh Jacobs Extension

Some recent cryptic social media posts from Josh Jacobs would seem to suggest the franchise-tagged running back is displeased with his Raiders talks. The reigning rushing champion has just more than three weeks to reach an extension agreement.

Less has come out regarding the Raiders’ long-term plans with Jacobs compared to the Giants’ negotiations with Saquon Barkley. While at least two known Giants offers have surfaced, no numbers have emerged in the Jacobs-Raiders talks. This could point to no true negotiations having taken place, even after the key Raiders decision-makers have praised the former first-round pick this offseason. As of April, no serious talks had begun. Conversely, the Giants had already submitted the two offers to Barkley (and rescinded them) by that point.

The quiet nature of these talks aside, Vincent Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal notes both sides are motivated to reach an agreement before the July 17 deadline. The Raiders not simply viewing this as a potential rental year is notable, but it is clear a sizable gap needs to be bridged between team and player before an agreement can be expected.

Devalued significantly over the past decade and change, the running back position has taken more lumps this offseason. Two of the top four RB contracts — given to Ezekiel Elliott (2019) and Dalvin Cook (2020) — are no longer active, with the Cowboys and Vikings moving on from their longtime starters. This year’s top free agency RB contract (Miles Sanders‘ $6.35MM-per-year Panthers pact) checked in nearly $10MM south of Christian McCaffrey‘s long-position-topping AAV. It is safe to assume Jacobs, Barkley and Tony Pollard would have done better if allowed to hit the market, but it does not look like any of the tagged backs are in position to threaten McCaffrey’s $16MM-per-year position record.

While six running back deals at or north of $11.5MM per year remain, the Packers gave Aaron Jones a pay cut — in exchange for additional 2023 guarantees — and the Bengals have long prepared to impose a slash on Joe Mixon‘s $12MM-AAV accord. The bottom drops out after the Jones deal, with James Conner‘s $7MM-per-year Cardinals contract the only one between Sanders’ and the eight-figure-per-year crowd. Jacobs obviously will have his sights set on checking in near the McCaffrey-Alvin Kamara tier ($15MM-plus per annum), but if the Raiders are comfortable with his $10.9MM tag salary being on the books, the fifth-year back carries minimal leverage.

Jacobs, 25, did not enter the NFL with a heavy college workload (just 251 carries in three Alabama seasons), but he totaled an NFL-leading 393 touches last season. Of the four backs who topped that over the past 10 years (McCaffrey, DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell and Derrick Henry), each failed to come close to matching their production the following year. McCaffrey and Henry suffered injuries in 2020 and 2021, respectively, while Murray gained just 702 yards in 15 Eagles games in 2015. Bell sat out the 2018 season, protesting a second Steelers tag, but was never the same upon returning to action.

Through that lens, it would probably behoove Jacobs to cash in now. An injury could affect his 2024 value. But without knowing what the Raiders are offering — or if a firm offer has been put on the table — it is difficult to assess his strategy. He is tied to a $10.9MM guarantee, but that money does not become locked in until he signs his franchise tender.

Jacobs, Barkley and Jaguars tight end Evan Engram have not signed their respective tenders and thus can skip training camp free of fines. While Barkley has pocketed nearly $40MM in his career, Jacobs has barely made a fourth of that ($11.9MM). The latter should not be considered a live candidate to skip regular-season games. Rookie-deal earnings aside, neither should Barkley. The threat of missed game checks has given teams leverage in negotiations with tagged players since the tag’s 1993 inception.

Jacobs is the first Raiders tag recipient since Tyvon Branch in 2012. The former Oakland safety reached an extension agreement, but Jacobs is in a more complicated position. Will this end in a deal before July 17?