Expected to begin post-draft, the extension talks between the Panthers and Brian Burns look to be underway. The fifth-year edge rusher confirmed (via ESPN.com’s David Newton) conversations have started.
Burns has become one of the NFL’s better outside rushers. He set a new career high with 12.5 sacks last season and has been named an original-ballot Pro Bowler in each of the past two years. The Panthers will need to pay Burns near the top of the D-end/rush-linebacker market, something the Florida State alum confirmed Tuesday. The organization has been on this path for a bit now, and a run of rebuffed trade overtures suggests Burns will do very well on his second contract.
Panthers GM Scott Fitterer said earlier this offseason Burns is squarely in line for an extension, joining Derrick Brown in that regard. The Bears asked about both D-linemen during the teams’ trade talks in March, a process that ended with D.J. Moore dealt to Chicago. While Burns and Brown’s rookie deals factored into Moore being the one traded, the standout edge will likely soon be attached to a lucrative second contract.
Maxx Crosby became the most recent player to infiltrate the top five on the edge market. T.J. Watt‘s $28MM-per-year deal tops that salary hierarchy presently, and although the Steelers inked the former Defensive Player of the Year to that deal in September 2021, Burns will have a difficult time exceeding that accord. That said, Nick Bosa is poised to secure an extension north of $30MM on average. That could change the market. Even if Bosa’s deal does not ultimately impact the Panthers’ Burns talks, the team’s top pass rusher is surely targeting a number north of the deals given to Crosby ($23.5MM AAV) and Bradley Chubb ($22MM) last year. Burns’ next deal will likely make him a top-five or top-six edge, Joe Person of The Athletic notes (subscription required).
Burns’ 38 sacks rank 11th since 2019. While Pro Football Focus has not rated Burns’ run defense as particularly sound, he has generated immense trade interest. Prior to the Bears’ inquiry, the Rams made an aggressive pursuit. It is widely known the Panthers turned down a two-first-rounder Rams offer for Burns before last year’s deadline. The picks were to come in 2024 and ’25, but Burns’ camp can use that declined offer as clear evidence of the fifth-year defender’s value to the team.
The former Ron Rivera-era investment stands to be the anchor pass rusher in Ejiro Evero‘s defensive scheme. Chubb served in that capacity for part of last season, but the Broncos dealt him to the Dolphins at the deadline. The Panthers do not have another notable front-seven contract on their books, having convinced Shaq Thompson to accept a pay cut in exchange for a bit more in 2023 guarantees. Brown, who is now extension-eligible but can be kept on his rookie deal through 2024, figures to follow Burns on the extension radar next year.
The Panthers can string these negotiations out, with the franchise tag at their disposal, but another significant salary cap bump is expected in 2024. Locking down Burns now would be the prudent move for Carolina, which is transitioning to a new coaching staff for the second time in Burns’ career. Doing a deal now also stands to reduce Burns’ cap number — presently at $16MM, due to the Panthers exercising his fifth-year option in May 2022 — for the ’23 season.