With each of year of his career, Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb has progressed towards to top echelon of NFL wideouts. After a third season that may have established him in that top group, Lamb has become a top extension priority for the Cowboys’ front office. What will it take to lock down the team’s top receiver long-term? And will Dallas be willing to spend it? 
Coming out of Oklahoma as a consensus All-American, Lamb was selected 17th overall by the Cowboys. With a strong mentor in Amari Cooper, Lamb made an immediate impact as a rookie, finishing second on the team in receptions (74) and receiving yards (935) while matching Cooper and Michael Gallup for the team-lead in touchdown receptions with five. By Year 2, Lamb was ready to take the reins. With Gallup missing eight games due to injury, Lamb significantly stepped up his production even surpassing Cooper for the team-lead in receptions (79) and receiving yards (1,102) while bettering his own rookie receiving touchdown total by one.
Lamb’s continued progression made Dallas confident in his ability to function as the team’s top wideout, allowing them to trade away Cooper and his bulky contract. No problem for Lamb. He took over as WR1 and excelled. He used his new position as the lone man on top and delivered career-highs in receptions (107), receiving yards (1,359), and receiving touchdowns (9), leading Dallas in all three categories. Not only did he lead his team, but Lamb was also top-ten in the league in all three statistics.
Last season helped to break Lamb into the conversation for top-ten receivers. Not only did he post top-ten statistics, but the analysts over at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) also slotted him as the eighth-best receiver in the league. So, what exactly does his status as a top-ten wideout mean for a potential extension?
Currently, the top ten annual averages for wide receiver contracts in the NFL all exceed $20MM per year, the number the Cowboys granted to Cooper back in 2020. With the exception of Keenan Allen, who signed his deal in 2020, all of those top contracts were reached last year. This means that, while the numbers may inflate a bit in 2023, they shouldn’t be that far off from last year’s record-breaking deals. Those deals range from D.J. Moore‘s three-year, $61.88MM deal ($20.63MM average annual value) to Tyreek Hill‘s league-topping four-year, $120MM contract ($30MM AAV).
Lamb still trails a few of the top moneymakers at the position statistically. Hill, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and A.J. Brown were all able to outperform Lamb in some aspects. Others, like Cooper Kupp, D.K. Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel have had higher highs in their careers than Lamb but have lacked his consistency and progress. I’d estimate that Lamb should fetch more than Terry McLaurin‘s $22.79MM per year but likely less than Adams’s $28MM. He probably deserves to be in the range of Diggs, Metcalf, and Samuel, but the usual annual inflation should boost him up into the range of Brown and Kupp.
While most of the top contracts are three or four years in length, the Cowboys didn’t shy away from giving Cooper a five-year deal after his fifth season. They’re likely not going to want to let Lamb slip through their fingers and, with only three years of NFL play under his belt, they can stand to stack an extra year in the deal. I think the Cowboys could get away with offering a little less in AAV by going for a five-year deal, as well. A five-year, $125MM offer makes a lot of sense. It would give Lamb the second-largest receiver contract in the NFL, behind only Adams’s $140MM, but would only put him tied for fourth in AAV at $25MM per year.
One of the reasons that Lamb’s extension is a priority for Dallas has nothing to do with the Cowboys or Lamb. Lamb’s fellow 2020 draftee Justin Jefferson is likely also working towards an extension in Minnesota soon. Statistically, Jefferson’s worst season is comparable to Lamb’s best. Since entering the league, Jefferson has finished every season as a top-four wideout, according to PFF. Whenever Jefferson signs a new contract, he will likely set a new bar for receiver deals. That puts Dallas in a race against the clock. They would likely prefer to get a deal done with Lamb before Jefferson resets the market at a new higher rate.
There you have it. A Lamb extension has been on the team’s mind since at least March. They can lock down their star wideout with a top-five deal right now and make both parties happy. Their best chance, though, is to get that done before the Vikings extend Jefferson. If Jefferson is able to reset the market, holding on to Lamb may come at an even greater cost.