Latest On Giants, Daniel Jones

MARCH 5: Jones and New York brass are expected to leave the scouting combine today “with no contract resolution in sight,” as Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network reports (via Twitter). Pelissero’s NFL Network colleague, Mike Garafolo, says it always seemed likely that, if a long-term deal is going to be struck prior to the March 7 deadline for teams to utilize the franchise tag, it will happen in the 48 hours leading up to the deadline (Twitter link). However, Pelissero’s report suggests that there is still a great deal of work to be done in these negotiations.

MARCH 3, 4:00pm: Painting a more optimistic picture of the situation compared to Leonard’s report, ESPN’s Jordan Raanan tweets that progress has been made in recent days between the two sides. He adds that a contract being finalized before the tag deadline “doesn’t seem unreasonable,” something which would of course carry massive implications for the team if it were to happen. Jones being signed would allow for the franchise tag to become an option for Barkley, thus keeping him off the market. Raanan also echoes the expectation that Jones’ deal will check in at a value of at least $40MM per season.

MARCH 3, 8:57am: Daniel Jones‘ rumored $45MM-per-year price point emerged almost two weeks ago. Despite the Giants negotiating with their free agent-to-be quarterback daily this week, they do not appear to be making progress.

Not only has Jones not come down from that lofty number, Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News reports his ask is beyond $45MM on average. GM Joe Schoen said Thursday he wished the two sides were closer on terms by this point. The gap between where the Giants want this deal to land and what Jones’ camp points to a franchise tag.

The Giants initially feared Jones’ ask would come in beyond $35MM per year. Given the developments since the sides started negotiating, that number sounds reasonable now. Guarantee structure will matter here, but it does not appear the Giants are entertaining a number north of $45MM AAV. That is top-five (for now) quarterback money — north of Patrick Mahomes‘ 10-year deal’s average — and it points to Team Jones viewing the fifth-year passer as ascending to the point the Giants need to pay up for what he will be with a stronger supporting cast.

Jones’ wild-card performance in Minnesota notwithstanding, his being connected to an ask in this neighborhood after a 15-touchdown pass season is interesting. The Giants’ wide receiver plan broke down to the point a waiver claim (Isaiah Hodgins) had emerged as his go-to target by season’s end. Saquon Barkley was by far the team’s best skill player. Jones’ ask staying at this place could certainly lead to the sixth-year running back hitting the market.

The $37MM-AAV range has emerged as a sweet spot here; that would check in around the price of a 2024 Jones franchise tag. This year’s QB tag is $32.4MM, explaining the gap between the Giants and Jones four days away from the deadline to tag players.

Evaluators at this week’s Combine have classified Jones as an above-average quarterback not in the top tier at his position, Leonard adds, noting execs would want to see more before entertaining a contract in this price range. “Above average” is a safe label, even after Jones’ surprising 2022 season. The 25-year-old QB is a year removed from the Giants passing on a $22.4MM fifth-year option. Now, the prospect of Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson moving the top of the QB market is likely affecting the Giants.

This offseason brings a handful of quarterback-needy teams. The Jets and Saints are leading the way in terms of those connected to veteran arms, with Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr at the forefront. The Giants are not planning to let Jones test free agency; the only way he could gauge his value is to negotiate with other teams while on the tag. It would cost a team two first-round picks to pry Jones from the Giants, who would need to match an offer sheet to keep him in that scenario. Would another team’s offer come close to a deal in the high-$40MM range?

Even if this offseason saga is unlikely to reach that point, the Giants are on the verge of being stuck with a $32.4MM tag clogging their payroll going into free agency. The team sits near the top of the league in terms of cap space, holding $46.9MM as of Friday morning. Its equation would change if/once Jones is tagged.

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