Viewed by most as a placeholder passer during his first two offseasons in Detroit, Jared Goff is coming off a strong 2022 slate and will enter the 2023 season in position to build on it.
The Lions will have Jameson Williams healthy to complement Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the team is interested in re-signing DJ Chark. Detroit also stands to return most of its offensive line. And OC Ben Johnson, who went from rookie play-caller to sought-after HC candidate, decided early in this year’s interview cycle to stay with the Lions. Goff has also received a run of endorsements about his status as the Lions’ starter.
The former No. 1 overall pick remains tied to his Rams-constructed contract — a four-year, $134MM extension agreed to during the 2019 offseason — but might this momentum entice Goff’s camp to pursue a new deal? They may already have done so. Rumblings pointed to Goff’s camp seeking a Lions extension during the 2022 offseason, according to Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press, who expects the QB’s reps to broach the subject with the team again this year. Goff’s current deal runs through the 2024 season.
Coming back from being the throw-in piece in 2021’s Matthew Stafford trade, Goff moved to Detroit because the Rams added a second first-round pick to convince the Lions to take on the then-trending-down passer’s contract. But the Lions did not pursue an upgrade in 2022, a rather busy offseason for the quarterback market. GM Brad Holmes offered another endorsement of Goff as the team’s starter last month. That came after a December report indicated the Lions were looking at Goff not as a bridge but as a long-term option. Following a season in which Goff ranked fifth in QBR — at 61.2, the second-highest mark of his career — the Cal product is back on the upswing.
Detroit held the No. 2 overall pick last year — a draft that brought a shaky quarterback class — and, thanks to the Rams’ 2022 struggles, holds this year’s No. 6 choice. Detroit also has its own first-rounder (No. 18 overall) to dangle for a potential trade-up, in the event the team takes a liking to one of this year’s top prospects. The Lions may not want to do a Goff deal before the draft, but Birkett adds the more logical window would be in the summer. Both the Lions’ Stafford extensions were finalized in the summer (July 2013, August 2017).
When Goff signed his Rams accord, it ranked as a top-five contract. Nearly four years later, the QB market’s usual movement has dropped Goff’s AAV outside the top 10. Goff’s $33.5MM-per-year number now checks in at No. 11 at the position, and the $30MM-AAV neighborhood is sliding toward the QB middle class. Nine passers are currently tied to deals north of $40MM per annum, with no contracts residing in the $35-40MM gap. Goff’s deal also contains no more guaranteed money. Of course, the obvious question would be whether the Lions would want to give their current starter a big raise.
Goff doing an extension would reduce his 2023 cap number (currently at $30.9MM), but the Lions considering an upper-crust extension for a quarterback who has been inconsistent over the past four seasons would cut into their ability to build a team around the eighth-year veteran. Goff, 28, has not solidified himself as a surefire franchise quarterback; paying him as such would inject risk into the Lions’ equation. But the market could soon change. A number of QBs could join Aaron Rodgers as $50MM-per-year passers, with Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert all extension-eligible. Daniel Jones‘ next deal may be more pertinent to Goff, given the aforementioned passers’ higher standing in the league.
This batch of extensions coming to pass and Goff playing well again in 2023 — ahead of his 2024 contract year — would boost his value. Another Goff contract does not appear to be a front-burner matter for the Lions, who rallied from 1-6 to the playoff precipice. But it might enter that territory in the not-too-distant future.
Not necessarily the worst plan.