Ozzie Newsome’s final draft as Ravens general manager in 2018 saw the team secure a succession plan for Joe Flacco at the quarterback position. With the Super Bowl XLVII MVP aging and approaching an important financial point in his contract, Lamar Jackson was selected to one day take over the reins of a transitioning offense.
That time came midway through Jackson’s rookie season, when the Louisville product took over for an injured Flacco. He helped lead the Ravens to a 6-1 record and a playoff berth, cementing his status as the starter moving forward. The 2019 season saw Jackson deliver one of the most unique and historic performances in NFL history, which culminated in the league’s second ever unanimous MVP vote. Expectations have been through the roof ever since, but the situation between Jackson and the Ravens has soured recently with contract talks netting little progress over the past two years. 
The 26-year-old was thought to be next in line for a mega-extension similar to the ones signed by Patrick Mahomes and 2018 classmate Josh Allen. The Ravens have been prepared to pay Jackson in a similar fashion to those two in terms of annual compensation in the neighborhood of $45MM per season. As time wore on without much traction being gained during negotiations, though, the events of last offseason marked an important turning point.
After being the subject of a bidding war, Deshaun Watson was ultimately traded to the Browns and signed to a five-year, $230MM deal. The surprise from Cleveland’s willingness to part with three first-round picks for him was surpassed only by the fully guaranteed nature of his pact. Many around the league – including Ravens owner Steve Bisciotti – lamented the historic investment the Browns made in Watson, acutely aware of how it would likely affect Jackson’s leverage in extension talks.
The previous season had seen Baltimore find itself atop the AFC standings before a reaching a tipping point on the injury front. That included Jackson missing time due to injury for the first time in his career. He was sidelined for the final five games of the year, and the Ravens narrowly missed the playoffs while struggling mightily on offense. Reports then emerged during the summer of 2022 that the two-time Pro Bowler turned down an offer including $133MM in guaranteed money.
That figure would have ranked second in the league, but nowhere near the level of Watson’s deal. New contracts signed by Russell Wilson ($124MM fully guaranteed) and Kyler Murray ($103MM) suggested teams were willing to ignore the Watson accord in terms of precedent on the guarantee front, something GM Eric DeCosta and the Ravens’ front office is holding firm on. Jackson made it clear he would pause negotiations during the 2022 season, one which was expected to provide clarity on his financial future.
Playing on the fifth-year option, Jackson and the Ravens instead followed a similar script this year. The former Heisman winner suffered a knee injury in Week 13, something which was not initially expected to cost him the remainder of the season. That did end up being the case, however, and much was made about his absence extending into the team’s postseason loss. Jackson’s decision to take to social media to elaborate on the extent of his PCL sprain, and later to issue a thinly-veiled directive to the team regarding his impending free agency has likewise not sat well.
Having missed 10 of the past 22 games, injuries have become a talking point with so much at stake in contract talks. That figure could give the Ravens (or any other interested team) perceived leverage, but Jackson has plenty as well. The Ravens are 46-19 in his starts, and 4-9 without him since 2019. The team’s offense has averaged 10 fewer points per game without Jackson during that span compared to the games in which he does play.
A new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken is expected to produce schematic changes compared to Greg Roman, the OC during each of Jackson’s four full seasons as a starter. Regardless of what takes place on that front, the Ravens’ pass-catching corps (which lacks established playmakers outside of tight end Mark Andrews) will be a key area of focus. Additions – such as a long-term replacement for Marquise Brown, whose trade request was quietly granted last spring – will be hard to come by when Jackson takes up a substantially higher portion of the Ravens’ cap, either through a mega-deal or a one-year charge brought on by the franchise tag.
The difficulty in acquiring and retaining pass-catchers increasingly became a point of contention after Flacco turned his 2012 playoff success into a franchise-record extension. Trepidation on the team’s part in terms of looking to avoid a repeat of that scenario would be understandable up to a point, as the Ravens look to keep Jackson in the fold while not compromising an otherwise strong roster.
With the franchise tag being all-but certain in Jackson’s case, this saga could continue for months to come. An offer sheet or tag-and-trade could come into play, depending on which tag the Ravens use and Jackson’s perceived market around the league. Whether he signs his tag is another matter altogether, and sitting out the offseason could lead to a holdout situation similar to Le’Veon Bell in 2018. The then-Steeler skipped the entire campaign, forfeiting millions in compensation (albeit far less than what Jackson would be giving up if he followed suit). Bell still landed a big-ticket deal from the Jets in 2019, so the tactic could prove useful if a repeat were to be attempted.
In the summer, PFR’s readers were split on how they felt this situation would unfold. No option is off the table at this point, from a franchise-record deal to the league’s first ever trade involving an MVP under the age of 30. How do you see things playing out? Which side will concede during negotiations? Where will Jackson play in 2023 and beyond? Have your say in the comments section.
If Lamar’s intended strategy is to use the Le’Veon Bell playbook, then he’s probably suffered some concussions we don’t know about.
With the cap rising roughly $20m a year or so; short deals are the best. ‘Long term security’ means your contract will be nothing in a couple of years. No one talks about Cousins’s $30+m a year deal anymore right? He’s been in Minny for 5 years(?).
I wonder if the deal length is even relevant. Any athlete who can’t live a comfortable life on even $10MM a year has a serious problem.
They should tag him non exclusively and let the market decide on the fully guarantee if they are right nobody is gonna offer it if not they still have the opportunity to match or take picks.
The $230m guaranteed deals are coming. I just think the Browns are about 5-6 years way ahead of the curve.
Browns & ahead of the curve shouldn’t be used in the same forum
ahead of the curve and behind in the standings
Arty could be right but Goodell obviously hopes to have something in place in Europe 5 or 6 years from now. Is the fan base over there strong enough to support $230m guaranteed contracts?
If I were either party I would be doing the same thing. We’re just at more of a crossroad league wise really.
Running QB’s always get hurt , it was a matter of time .
No offense to the writer, who did a good job with this article, but I wonder when we’ll stop using the phrase “unique” to just simply mean “a running QB”. We’ve seen running QBs before, and we’ll see them again. Jackson was extremely good at it, possibly the best at that specific task that we’ve seen (at the cost of his passing statistics, which were some of the worst we’ve seen yardage wise for a successful QB). I don’t mean any of this to be a knock on Jackson’s effectiveness, as that is not my aim here. But we’ve seen running QBs before, even if an argument can be made that Jackson is the best of them.
This particular running QB was hurt in the pocket both times and not while on the run.
Lamar has been pretty good about not getting crushed while running.
Like LeVeon Bell, Jackson’s best years could already be behind him. Miracle wonder man, hero of fools, I see blood and destruction, Raven’s elimination because of one man, because of one man.
Jackson should have taken the high water contract he was offered. This won’t end well, with a year off and then a career-ending injury. Or a career-ending injury on a franchise tag.
The win for the Ravens here would be to non-exclusive franchise tag Jackson and let someone else take their problem off their hands.
Wait and see what Burrows gets, has more playoff wins, 2 AFC championship appearances and a Super Bowl appearance in 3 years. All more than Jackson, who should then be slotted below what Cincy offers. Would love to see what our new OC can do with Lamar.
He’s horrible and the worst has yet to come.
I’m still very much in the “non-exclusive tag” camp. Let him test the market. The Ravens may well find that nobody will top the money PLUS give up two first rounders for him. See if he can stay healthy for 17 regular season games and re-evaluate next year.
That’s the smart move. Aside from Mahomes, is there another QB that should get the kind of guaranteed money that Watson got? MAYBE Burrows. But even then, it hamstrings a team for years. I really have a hard time believing any owner will give up that kind of draft capital and that kind of contract for Jackson. That’s the reality check the young man needs to see.
Also gotta consider that any team acquiring Jackson has to rework their offense to compliment his style of play. Could mean additional personnel changes.
His probable logic isn’t wrong.
His style of play practically demands guaranteed money.
Like most running QBs, he puts his body through RB punishment.
Compare the number of RBs to pocket-first QBs in their 30s.
Having said that, forcing a team to guarantee money because your success is a direct result of your ability to run … historically unsustainable at an elite/high level … is one audacious gamble.
To be fair: it’s not as though Baltimore has surrounded him with more than 1 reliable receiving weapon (that can stay on the field) not a backfield that can do the running and take the punishment instead of Lamar.
Dude is putting his financial future first. In of itself, that’s the line in the sand that fans will debate forever; but, like I said, his logic isn’t wrong imo