As the NFL determines how it will proceed with the postponed Bills-Bengals game, Week 18 is on as scheduled. The No. 1 overall pick remains in doubt, and seven teams enter the final week either 6-10 or 7-9. Several games will impact how the top 10 shakes out.
Having lost nine straight, the Bears (3-13) are a half-game behind the Texans (2-13-1) for the No. 1 overall pick. Houston last held that draft slot in 2014, while Chicago has not picked first since 1947. The Texans are also playing a Colts team they tied in Week 1; Indianapolis enters Week 18 on a six-game skid. Conversely, the Bears face a Vikings squad that still has a path to the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
Week 17 also brought clarity on the NFC South. Although the Buccaneers have disappointed, their comeback win over the Panthers secured the franchise’s third straight playoff berth. That will mean Tampa Bay’s pick will check in no higher than 18th overall, while the Carolina and New Orleans slots could land in the top 10. The loser of Saturday’s Jaguars-Titans game would also see their draft slot rise several positions. Four of the five traded picks remain in the top 12, with the Seahawks’ spot (via the Broncos) still slotting highest — behind only the Texans and Bears’ positions.
For non-playoff teams, the draft order will be determined by the inverted 2022 standings — plus a series of tiebreakers, starting with strength of schedule — with playoff squads being slotted by their postseason outcome and regular-season record. Here is how the draft order looks entering Week 18:
- Houston Texans: 2-13-1
- Chicago Bears: 3-13
- Seattle Seahawks (via Broncos)
- Arizona Cardinals: 4-12
- Indianapolis Colts: 4-11-1
- Detroit Lions (via Rams)
- Atlanta Falcons: 6-10
- Las Vegas Raiders: 6-10
- Carolina Panthers: 6-10
- Philadelphia Eagles (via Saints)
- Tennessee Titans: 7-9
- Houston Texans (via Browns)
- New York Jets: 7-9
- Washington Commanders: 7-8-1
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-8
- Green Bay Packers: 8-8
- Detroit Lions: 8-8
- Seattle Seahawks: 8-8
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8
- New England Patriots: 8-8
- New York Giants: 9-6-1
- Baltimore Ravens: 10-6
- Los Angeles Chargers: 10-6
- Cincinnati Bengals: 11-4
- Minnesota Vikings: 12-4
- Dallas Cowboys: 12-4
- Denver Broncos (via 49ers)
- Buffalo Bills: 12-3
- Kansas City Chiefs: 13-3
- Philadelphia Eagles: 13-3
Haven’t been this excited for a draft since the the Okung/Earl Thomas 1st round. I am wondering; will Stroud make a big leap after that nice Bowl game? I want him to be a Seahawk. The question is; are we going to need to move up to two; in order to block another QB needy team?
I could see the Colts trading up with the Bears at 2 for a QB. If Seattle wants to draft a QB they might have to trade up a slot like the 49s did a few years ago.
Seattle may want to go for the best player available since Geno has shown he can run the offense. Neither the Bears nor the Cards, if they lose and Broncos win, are not going to pick a QB, but Houston will.
I’d take stroud at #1 today over Bryce
I said last year Malik was not day 1 talent.
this year I’m saying Bryce Young is just Colt McCoy at the pro level.
Young has a dramatically stronger arm than McCoy.
I agree and it’s all about the arm. But, I still thing Young will go 1 because of his incredible athleticism. Could very well end up being one of those coin flip choices as their careers develop.
But yeah, holy hell, Stroud can throw the ball. Jaw dropping arm talent
Bryce has twice the intelligence and twice the athleticism
we don’t get to talk about Kenny Picketts hand size for a whole offseason , only to ignore the issues surrounding a 6’0 QB the next season
I mean, those are different concerns (and my concern with Pickett was more about how long it took him to be very good in the ACC), but also of course we’re going to hear size concerns. You know some people will prefer Stroud or even Levis tor measurable reasons. You never have to worry we won’t hear concerns about a small QB’s size.
If Houston beats the Colts and Ehlinger this week, the Bears are going to be licking their chops at the bidding war for the top pick.
I could definitely see Texans beating the Colts. If Vikings play the Bears like the played the Packers, I could see the Bears winning too.
And Steelers end up with 1st rd pick (#32) for Chase Claypool lol
Yeah, that was a fantastic trade for Pittsburgh.
Why would you think any Ohio St Qb would be good in the pros….. name one who had been .
Scouting by school is silly. Lots of great QBs come from schools that hadn’t produced a good pro in recent years or haven’t since. And Justin Fields has shown a lot of promise this year with next to nothing around him.
ya I don’t remember anyone having as high a draft grade as Stroud and Fields either
everyone kinda knew Haskins was a reach at the time , and others like Cardale, Braxton and Barrett never had high overall grades.
if he’s talking before that batch, then that’s even more irrelevant
Not at all. OSU QBs perform great in college because the school always recruits elite receivers, solid O Line, and a strong running game. That gives the QB time to run thru progressions, and they’ll almost always find a receiver wide open because of the separation they can achieve. On the NFL they have to make decisions much faster and their receivers will rarely get the separation they saw in college. That’s why Fields put up such poor passing yardage vs the “mighty” Lions secondary and was sacked 7 times. He was waiting for that wide open WR to appear downfield.
Yeah, I think you’re reaching with most of that, and it doesn’t change the fact that Stroud is a different guy. Downgrading a guy because he was surrounded with talent is silly. Joe Burrow had Chase AND Jefferson.
It’s a telling sign when, arguably, the most successful OSU quarterback in the NFL (Mike Tomczak) went undrafted.
Don’t the dolphins own the Niners first?
They traded it for Chubb.
Jets need an O-Lineman with some nastiness
Mr. Unlimited is looking like the worst trade in football history at this point.
The Texans are probably going to screw up and win this week.
And they did