In the aftermath of the “Tuck Rule” game 21 years ago, the Buccaneers sent the Raiders a monster haul for Jon Gruden. Oakland collected two first-round picks, two second-rounders and $8MM in cash from Tampa Bay. Although the Bucs went on to win Super Bowl XXXVII a year later, their draft capital took a major hit when they replaced Tony Dungy with Gruden.
This trade has become relevant again, with Sean Payton on the market and Saints GM Mickey Loomis discussing his trade price with teams. While Payton said Loomis would likely ask for a mid- to late-first-round pick for his rights this year, NOLA.com’s Jeff Duncan points to the Raiders-Bucs trade. Loomis has told teams he wants a Gruden-esque package for Payton’s rights, with Duncan noting two first-round picks will be the starting point.
Should a team offer two first-rounders in future drafts, Duncan adds the Saints will want “higher mid-round picks” in the 2023 draft as part of the package as well. If the ante will be upped to this point, the HC-needy teams keen on hiring Payton will have more to consider. Though, the Broncos and Saints were reported to have agreed on compensation that includes a first-rounder and change already.
From the Saints’ perspective, such a haul would make sense. Four of the five HC-seeking teams have been connected to Payton, and he will have interviewed with three of them — the Texans, Broncos and Panthers — by week’s end. Payton is also expected to command a top-market coaching salary, as he has obvious leverage via the expanding market for his services and the option of staying at FOX for another year. Payton is seeking a four-year deal worth $20-$25MM per year, per Duncan. Judging by reports of the Broncos being set for an “ultra-aggressive” HC push and Panthers owner David Tepper being willing to give Payton “just about anything he wants,” the salary component here will be the lesser issue for teams.
The Broncos having just traded two first-round picks and two seconds for Russell Wilson certainly complicates their interest in meeting this asking price, though they did acquire a 2023 first-rounder in the Bradley Chubb trade. The Texans would be in better position to meet it, considering the Deshaun Watson swap armed them with three first-rounders. Houston holds two first-round picks and two seconds in the upcoming draft, but sending much of the Watson haul for a coach also would complicate the rebuilding team’s ability to stock its roster.
Payton said recently the Saints’ compensation would change “considerably” if this process is tabled to 2024, when just one season would remain on his contract. Loomis, however, has told Saints staffers he is comfortable waiting a year to trade Payton’s rights, according to Duncan. Teams in the Payton sweepstakes could attempt to test Loomis’ desire here, considering the Saints sent their 2023 first-rounder to the Eagles just before last year’s draft. But the Texans, Panthers and Broncos have fallen on hard times recently. The Saints’ potential push for a huge haul would attempt to capitalize on that while giving themselves a package that would help their now-Dennis Allen–led operation, which did not start especially well in 2022.
“It’s complicated because I have such great respect for him,” Loomis said of Payton last week. “He’s a close friend of mine. He’s a great coach. I want the best for him. I do. We do, collectively as an organization. But I also recognize that … his contract is a valuable asset to our club, and it’s our duty to maximize that.”
The Gruden ask is on the high end of the spectrum in terms of modern swaps for coaches. Bill Parcells cost the Jets first-, second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 1997; the Patriots received a package headlined by first- and fourth-rounders for Bill Belichick in 2000. Mike Holmgren cost the Seahawks a second-rounder in 1999; Herm Edwards cost the Chiefs a fourth in 2006.
Payton, 59, is believed to be 50-50 on coaching in 2023, potentially waiting out other jobs that might be available next year. That was believed to be Payton’s plan before this round of interviews started, but Duncan adds the Texans and Broncos meetings are believed to have gone well. The 16-year Saints HC was particularly impressed with Denver’s ownership group, though he is also intrigued by Houston’s draft capital and cap space. The Texans’ projected $40MM is projected to be among the top five entering the offseason.
Payton’s comfort level with the Broncos’ new ownership has been reported on multiple occasions, and the Rob Walton-fronted contingent would be able to pay top dollar in terms of salary. But the Broncos’ ability to build a team around Wilson would be greatly impacted by a two-first-rounder package. Dan Quinn has been mentioned as leading Denver’s non-Payton contingent; the Cowboys DC interviews with the Broncos on Friday.
I wonder what Loomis would trade those two first rounders for once he acquired them.
Perhaps a couple of bounty hunters.
2 first and $20 million a year? Good luck with that. Guy won 1 Super Bowl in 16 years. The press acts like he is the 2nd coming
Many of the best coaches in football have won one or none. And honestly, some of these owners are so rich and making so much money off these teams that they might as well look for every uncapped area they can outspend their counterparts–at least when it comes to the money part.
Pretty high expectations for a guy who can stay home another year.
Yeah I don’t recall Gruden threatening to retire or even OAK being unhappy with him. He was set to coach in OAK until TB came to the table willing to, frankly speaking, overpay for him.
Very different scenario. NO will be lucky to get a single 1st, IMO.
Teams shouldn’t overlook 3-4 years of 7-9 seasons with Brees QB’ing.
10 winning seasons, 1 .500 season, and 4 7-9 seasons is pretty fantastic.
4 7-9 seasons say a lot. with a HoF QB. I don’t recall Breese contemporaries Ben, Brady, Manning, AR w/ for four sub 500 seasons.
Brees wasn’t as good as Brady, Manning, or Rodgers, but more importantly, you’ll notice those were all seasons in which the Saints had one of the worst defenses in football.
We’ve never seen Sean w/o a HoF QB. We’ll see how great he really is. But w/o that one his resume, I wouldn’t fork over 2 first round picks for him.
And Brees was as good. He’ll be 1st ballot just like the rest of them.
He’ll be a first ballot hall of famer, but no. This isn’t an insult to Brees. Brady and Manning are realistically 1 and 2 of all time. And Manning only won two Super Bowls, one of which he was carried by his team. Brees also might not have been a hall of fame QB without Payton. Payton kept the Saints winning even when Brees had basically no arm left, and he managed a winning season with a grim mix of QBs last season. I’m not saying I would trade two first for him, but people are too dismissive of Payton’s accomplishments on here.
It should also be mentioned that Brees wasn’t hall-of-fame caliber UNTIL he arrived in New Orleans. He looked like a bust for his first 3 seasons, and, although he improved in 2004-05, he was more Carr/Cousins-level at the time. In fact, New Orleans initially faced criticism for going after Brees and not Culpepper (not that the Saints gig looked nearly as attractive as starting in Miami at the time)
Brees went there his 5th year. Most QB’s aren’t called HoF that early. The criticism was (a) over his shoulder and be (b) proven to be worthless.
He was still helped enormously by Payton’s scheming. Which isn’t to deny Brees credit. They were both great for the Saints.
I agree. The 2 worked great together.
It’s personal judgement on how people judge that generation of QB’s. Stats and rings are usually the base line and Brees has both. Top 5 in many categories upon retiring.
And you agree with me! You wouldn’t trade 2 first for Sean. That’s my whole point. We haven’t seen him work w/ a different QB than Brees. He’s using his hype for a big deal & good for him. Lamar is living off his MVP season from 3 years ago for his new deal as well.
Again, we saw Payton maximize Brees, even when Brees was a shadow of himself. And last year we saw how far Payton could stretch extremely little talent at QB. He also overhauled a lousy organization and has most of its all time winning seasons.
And no, even with stats aided by Payton’s scheming, Brees is not at a level with Brady and Manning.
And we saw 4 7-9 seasons when Brees was great. Sorry, that’s right, defense isn’t the HC duty.
Everyone’s definition of a great QB is different. People will say look at AR’s record & stats. Then blame his HC’s for only 1 ring. Same for Ben. They lay the blame at Tomlin’s feet.
OK. If you want to die on the hill that Brees is as good as Brady and Manning, you’re welcome to have that belief, but I disagree.
And sure, record is ultimately a coach’s responsibility. Like I said, 10 winning seasons, 1 .500 season, and 4 seasons a single game below .500 is pretty great. And given that those losing seasons all came with bad defenses, the promise of an offensive specialist as strong as Payton working with someone like Fangio is all the more enticing.
Don’t forget I mentioned Ben and AR as well. I said his HoF contemporaries.
As I said all along, we will see how good Sean is w/o a HoF QB. Some desperate team will cough up picks for him. Just like Denver drooled for Russel last year. Some team will do the same with Lamar at QB. Desperate teams make bad decisions.
I’ll take Montana over Manning any day. Rarely ever lost a big game. Manning lost a ton. Even the second Super Bowl he really didn’t have much to do with. That was all defense. Not just in the big game, but that regular season manning was hurt.
In Peyton’s win over Chicago in the SB, he was average. 25-38, 247 & 1-1.
That would be all I’d look at.
No coach is worth that much. I could live with giving up a mid to late first rounder if my team has multiple first rounders. Saints going to get greedy and lost out on fair compensation.
He retired the saints shouldn’t own nothing on this guy. The saints can kiss off too
He retired in the midst of a contract. If they let coaches take a year off to get out of a situation, QBs and star players would start doing it all the time.
The Saints definitely should own his rights until they can trade him.
Why would Payton want to coach a team entering a rebuild without premium draft picks? That’s almost assuring his tenure would be a failure.
If I’m Payton I’m sitting at home this year and wait and see if the cowboys or chargers job opens up for next year. I’m not coaching for an incompetent owner like tepper
So coach for incompetent owner like Jerry Jones?
If that’s the case broncos make the most sense since those picks would be so far in the future.
Now I understand he has a contract and has to honor it. But if he unretires don’t the saints have to pay him anyway and honor their side if there isn’t a trade ? Shouldn’t they be glad to rid themselves of a second head coach making millions of dollars? And the fact Payton was so good and loyal to the team and got them a super bowl just let him walk or get a second rounder.
If Houston could pay the salary he wants, that may be a good gig. Draft Bryce Young and some other pieces, plenty of cap room for FA’s. Fangio running the D. Could be a quick turn around.
Two 1st round picks, no way!
That sucks for Payton too, cuz just by being with his new team he loses draft capital. Also if this is really the demand then how are the Broncos even in the mix? Wouldn’t that make Payton all the more less want to go to a team who already has very little picks, knowing they have to give up what little they have just to acquire him? He a good to great coach. But two first’s is ridiculous.
I don’t care how good he MIGHT be if the cost is two first rounders plus! I don’t even want the Texans to give up the 12th pick for Payton. We’ve got lots of draft capital, let Caserio and the scouting team go to work. There isn’t too much competition for head coaches this year so we can get a great young option.
Very well said. That’s exactly how I would play it.
Stupid rule…..Payton was the person who left money on the table to walk away.
Whether you’re a good, bad or so-so coach, it obviously helps everything having a top tier QB. That’s why I don’t see why Payton would be interested in the Broncos job, unless he believes to the core of his soul that he can find something in Wilson that very few people see any more. Between what they gave up for RW and what they’d likely have to give up to sign Payton, they can pretty much forget about building through the draft for a while…
Payton might be more in the market for generational wealth for his family with a long-term guaranteed contract at very high wages. Denver has that potential with Walton money. I imagine the Waltons as experienced savvy business people would stack the contract very heavily in terms of incentives.
Disagree. Because he can make a ton of money broadcasting for the networks and he can do that until he’s 80 if he wants. Don’t think it’s about money, I think he still has passion to coach.
I haven’t heard Sean Payton in the broadcast booth. Is he any good?
That’s an insane price to pay to trade for any coach. In the NFL, players win games, not coaches.
I disagree with the second part. Look at the Giants for example. They don’t have a lot of talent but they brought in the right people and look what they’re doing. They had the least talented team that made the playoffs and yet they beat the Vikings. They’re going to give the eagles a run for their money too.
Coaching makes a huge difference in the NFL. But two firsts is just too much. Especially when these coaches don’t even have to honor their contracts. They just retire and go on TV.
Those picks can go bust too, but they can’t not play during their first few years and they could potentially end up being two franchise cornerstones.
Getting Sean Payton would be a plus for many teams. Giving up two first round picks is a big minus for every team.
The compensation makes the deal a wash and not worth making.
Not sure the NFL should allow coaches or GM’s to be allowed to be traded for draft picks. Putting a monetary value on the transaction would be more suitable. It’s buying out a contract. Rich teams could buy whatever coaches they want.
For reference, Sean McVay (Rams) tops the list at $15-18 million per year, then Belichick at $14.5M, Seahawks Pete Carroll at $11M, 49ers Shanahan at $9.5. Coach’s salaries have no impact on Cap Space, so the sky is the limit-and Denver’s owners have deep pockets. The problem is the demand for draft picks, of which the Broncos have few thanks to the Wilson deal. Two firsts is not an option.